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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Forward Modeling of Galaxy Catalogs with Normalizing Flows

Abstract Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of the redshift posteriors produced by photometric redshift (photo- z ) estimators is vital for enabling precision cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics with modern wide-field photometric surveys. Evaluating photo- z posteriors on a per-galaxy basis is difficult, however, as real galaxies have a true redshift but not a true redshift posterior. We introduce PZFlow, a Python package for the probabilistic forward modeling of galaxy catalogs with normalizing flows. For catalogs simulated with PZFlow, there is a natural notion of “true” redshift posteriors that can be used for photo- z validation. We use PZFlow to simulate a photometric galaxy catalog where each galaxy has a redshift, noisy photometry, shape information, and a true redshift posterior. We also demonstrate the use of an ensemble of normalizing flows for photo- z estimation. We discuss how PZFlow will be used to validate the photo- z estimation pipeline of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration, and the wider applicability of PZFlow for statistical modeling of any tabular data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning–Based Condition Monitoring of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Plant

With the need to maintain long-term reliable energy using nuclear power plants, there is an underlying demand to ensure that the maintenance of plant components and systems is also done in an efficient and cost-effective manner. One way to achieve this is by moving from time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The research presented in this paper focuses on applying statistical and machine-learning-based methods to capture anomalies within data for fault detection to further develop into condition monitoring. This paper focuses on system data for a circulating water system (CWS) of a pressurized heavy-water reactor for detecting anomalies. The different methodologies used for detecting and capturing anomalies in the CWS data are matrix profile, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and support vector machines (SVMs). Matrix profile and DBSCAN are used to distinguish between normal data and anomalous data. This paper presents a hybrid method using DBSCAN and SVM when a portion of the data is used for DBSCAN to generate clusters. This portion of data is then used to train the SVM along with the clusters generated by DBSCAN as output. SVM is then tested on unseen data as a predictive tool, which can work in real time to categorize data points as either normal or anomalous. This paper presents results that show the high accuracies of DBSCAN and SVM in capturing anomalies within the data for a CWS for fault detection. Thus, the maintenance plan would be focused on component condition rather than a time-based schedule by switching to an automated system to identify and predict faults within a CWS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlations between the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and the Equation of State of Dense Matter

We develop an analytic method of inverting the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff relations to high accuracy. In principle, a specified energy density–pressure relation gives a unique mass–radius (M–R) relation and vice versa. Our method is developed from the strong correlations that are shown to exist between the neutron star mass–radius curve and the equation of state (EOS) or pressure–energy density relation. Selecting points that have masses equal to fixed fractions of the maximum mass, we find a semi-universal power-law relation between the central energy densities, pressures, sound speeds, chemical potentials, and number densities of those stars, with the maximum mass and the radii of one or more fractional maximum mass points. Rms fitting accuracies, for EOSs without large first-order phase transitions, are typically 0.5% for all quantities at all mass points. The method also works well, although less accurately, in reconstructing the EOS of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions. These results permit, in effect, an analytic method of inverting an arbitrary M–R curve to yield its underlying EOS. We discuss applications of this inversion technique to the inference of the dense matter EOS from measurements of neutron star masses and radii as a possible alternative to traditional Bayesian approaches.

Bayesian statistics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fitting Matérn smoothness parameters using automatic differentiation

The Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function is ubiquitous in the application of Gaussian processes to spatial statistics and beyond. Perhaps the most important reason for this is that the smoothness parameter $\nu$ gives complete control over the mean-square differentiability of the process, which has significant implications for the behavior of estimated quantities such as interpolants and forecasts. Unfortunately, derivatives of the Mat$\acute{e}$rn covariance function with respect to $\nu$ require derivatives of the modified second-kind Bessel function $K$ $\nu$ with respect to $\nu$. While closed form expressions of these derivatives do exist, they are prohibitively difficult and expensive to compute. For this reason, many software packages require fixing $\nu$ as opposed to estimating it, and all existing software packages that attempt to offer the functionality of estimating $\nu$ use finite difference estimates for $\partial$ $\nu$ $K$ $\nu$ . In this work, we introduce a new implementation of $K$$\nu$ that has been designed to provide derivatives via automatic differentiation (AD), and whose resulting derivatives are significantly faster and more accurate than those computed using finite differences. Here, we provide comprehensive testing for both speed and accuracy and show that our AD solution can be used to build accurate Hessian matrices for second-order maximum likelihood estimation in settings where Hessians built with finite difference approximations completely fail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Enabled Wearable Piezoelectric Acoustic Sensor for Real-Time Breast Abnormality Detection

In contemporary society, breast health has become a significant public health concern, particularly among women. According to statistics from the World Health Organization, both the incidence and mortality rates of breast tumors have steadily increased in recent years. Therefore, effective early-stage screening and postoperative monitoring are essential for maintaining breast health. However, conventional clinical diagnostic modalities are typically bulky, operationally complex, and unsuitable for continuous real-time monitoring, which limits their use in portable and everyday health management applications. To address these limitations, this study proposes a machine learning-integrated wearable piezoelectric sensing platform as an auxiliary tool for breast health assessment. The device consists of a PDMS matching layer embedded with flexible silver nanowires, a P(VDF-TrFE) piezoelectric layer, and a multi-channel low-noise signal acquisition circuit. It is capable of acquiring acoustic echo signals from tissue-mimicking environments and automatically evaluating signal validity using a convolutional neural network (CNN). By integrating piezoelectric sensing with deep learning-based signal analysis, the proposed system achieves a signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 70 dB and a real-time classification accuracy above 96% under controlled conditions. These results demonstrate that the platform provides a compact, portable, and intelligent approach for wearable sensing of mechanical heterogeneity and highlight its potential for future development in continuous biomedical monitoring technologies.

He, Shuaitong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image feature extraction and galaxy classification: a novel and efficient approach with automated machine learning

ABSTRACT In this work, we explore the possibility of applying machine learning methods designed for 1D problems to the task of galaxy image classification. The algorithms used for image classification typically rely on multiple costly steps, such as the point spread function deconvolution and the training and application of complex Convolutional Neural Networks of thousands or even millions of parameters. In our approach, we extract features from the galaxy images by analysing the elliptical isophotes in their light distribution and collect the information in a sequence. The sequences obtained with this method present definite features allowing a direct distinction between galaxy types. Then, we train and classify the sequences with machine learning algorithms, designed through the platform Modulos AutoML. As a demonstration of this method, we use the second public release of the Dark Energy Survey (DES DR2). We show that we are able to successfully distinguish between early-type and late-type galaxies, for images with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 300. This yields an accuracy of $86{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the early-type galaxies and $93{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the late-type galaxies, which is on par with most contemporary automated image classification approaches. The data dimensionality reduction of our novel method implies a significant lowering in computational cost of classification. In the perspective of future data sets obtained with e.g. Euclid and the Vera Rubin Observatory, this work represents a path towards using a well-tested and widely used platform from industry in efficiently tackling galaxy classification problems at the peta-byte scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal dimensionality selection for independent component analysis of transcriptomic data

Independent component analysis is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm that separates a set of mixed signals into a set of statistically independent source signals. Applied to high-quality gene expression datasets, independent component analysis effectively reveals both the source signals of the transcriptome as co-regulated gene sets, and the activity levels of the underlying regulators across diverse experimental conditions. Two major variables that affect the final gene sets are the diversity of the expression profiles contained in the underlying data, and the user-defined number of independent components, or dimensionality, to compute. Availability of high-quality transcriptomic datasets has grown exponentially as high-throughput technologies have advanced; however, optimal dimensionality selection remains an open question. We computed independent components across a range of dimensionalities for four gene expression datasets with varying dimensions (both in terms of number of genes and number of samples). We computed the correlation between independent components across different dimensionalities to understand how the overall structure evolves as the number of user-defined components increases. We then measured how well the resulting gene clusters reflected known regulatory mechanisms, and developed a set of metrics to assess the accuracy of the decomposition at a given dimension. We found that over-decomposition results in many independent components dominated by a single gene, whereas under-decomposition results in independent components that poorly capture the known regulatory structure. From these results, we developed a new method, called OptICA, for finding the optimal dimensionality that controls for both over- and under-decomposition. Specifically, OptICA selects the highest dimension that produces a low number of components that are dominated by a single gene. We show that OptICA outperforms two previously proposed methods for selecting the number of independent components across four transcriptomic databases of varying sizes. OptICA avoids both over-decomposition and under-decomposition of transcriptomic datasets resulting in the best representation of the organism’s underlying transcriptional regulatory network.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Prognostic Models Using Plant Asset Data

The recent growth of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies provides opportunities for leveraging data-driven algorithms to address the problems of diagnostics and prognostics in the nuclear power industry. The use of machine learning and other statistical methods as prognostic models is of particular interest in the nuclear industry to accurately predict future equipment or plant state given a set of measurements. Such predictive capability will enable predictive assessment of component condition and remaining life and allow for condition-based predictive maintenance. The resulting optimization of maintenance scheduling and reduction in unnecessary maintenance activities will lower overall maintenance costs and improve the economics of nuclear power. This report discusses the various aspects of data processing and model development that are likely to influence the performance of prognostic models. Data from a boiling-water reactor was used to evaluate several prognostic models to identify key considerations for developing such models to predict data-driven plant state and equipment degradation condition. Preliminary results indicate the need for data sets that are relevant to the problem at hand and contain signatures that may be correlated to the prediction problem. Assuming such data exist, development of prognostic models using data-driven methods requires an understanding of the various sources of influence on the prediction accuracy (such as the model architecture, data preprocessing approaches, and potentially external factors influencing the equipment or plant system under assessment). Ongoing research is evaluating these factors in greater detail and examining techniques for calculating prediction uncertainty bounds.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Where do the fish go in winter? A year of observing seasonal changes in Sequim Bay’s nearshore fish community

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments. eDNA offers a non-invasive, cost-effective, and scalable way to detect aquatic species. It is appealing in environments where traditional methods are limited by access or visibility, especially in complex or sensitive habitats such as tidal channels and other marine energy sites. Before eDNA can be fully relied upon, we must verify its accuracy against established methods, like underwater photography. In this study, we collected eDNA samples and concurrently deployed a 360-degree camera near the floating dock of PNNL-Sequim in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month for twelve consecutive months. During deployments, the camera remained on the seafloor for several hours overlapping slack tide and captured time-lapse photographs at ten second intervals. Counts and identifications of fish species observed in the images were used to calculate monthly Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices. These values were compared across the months using a Kruskal-Wallis test paired with a Conover-Iman post-hoc test. Cliff’s Delta was also calculated to quantify the effect size of the monthly differences. No fish were observed from December through April, likely due to seasonal behavior changes within the local fish community. Fish returned to the shoreline in May, with the greatest diversity and evenness recorded in September. These findings reveal substantial seasonal variation in nearshore fish communities. Many monthly comparisons were found to contain statistically significant differences within the diversity and evenness, and even more were found to have large effect sizes, signifying large ecological changes throughout the seasons. The absence of fish observed during the winter months is a key outcome of this survey that will hopefully be reflected in the eDNA results still to come, which would help validate the eDNA approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning approaches for structural and thermodynamic properties of a Lennard-Jones fluid

Predicting the functional properties of many molecular systems relies on understanding how atomistic interactions give rise to macroscale observables. However, current attempts to develop predictive models for the structural and thermodynamic properties of condensed-phase systems often rely on extensive parameter fitting to empirically selected functional forms whose effectiveness is limited to a narrow range of physical conditions. Here, we illustrate how these traditional fitting paradigms can be superseded using machine learning. Specifically, we use the results of molecular dynamics simulations to train machine learning protocols that are able to produce the radial distribution function, pressure, and internal energy of a Lennard-Jones fluid with increased accuracy in comparison to previous theoretical methods. The radial distribution function is determined using a variant of the segmented linear regression with the multivariate function decomposition approach developed by Craven et al. [J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 11, 4372 (2020)]. The pressure and internal energy are determined using expressions containing the learned radial distribution function and also a kernel ridge regression process that is trained directly on thermodynamic properties measured in simulation. The presented results suggest that the structural and thermodynamic properties of fluids may be determined more accurately through machine learning than through human-guided functional forms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Delving into the depths of NGC 3783 with XRISM II. Cross-calibration of X-ray instruments used in the large, multi-mission observational campaign

Context. Accurate X-ray spectroscopic measurements are fundamental for deriving basic physical parameters of the most abundant baryon components in the Universe. The plethora of X-ray observatories currently operational enables a panchromatic view of the high-energy emission of celestial sources. However, uncertainties in the energy-dependent calibration of the instrument transfer functions (e.g. the effective area, energy redistribution, or gain) can limit - and historically, did limit - the accuracy of X-ray spectroscopic measurements. Aims. We revised the status of the cross-calibration among the scientific payload on board four operation missions: Chandra, NuSTAR, XMM-Newton, and the recently launched XRISM. XRISM carries the micro-calorimeter Resolve, which yields the best energy resolution at energies ≥2 keV. For this purpose, we used the data from a 10-day-long observational campaign targeting the nearby active galactic nucleus NGC 3783, carried out in July 2024. Methods. We present a novel model-independent method for assessing the cross-calibration status that is based on a multi-node spline of the spectra with the highest-resolving power (XRISM/Resolve in our campaign). We also estimated the impact of the intrinsic variability of NGC 3783 on the cross-calibration status due to the different time coverages of participating observatories and performed an empirical reassessment of the Resolve throughput at low energies. Results. Based on this analysis, we derived a set of energy-dependent correction factors of the observed responses, enabling a statistically robust analysis of the whole spectral dataset. They will be employed in subsequent papers describing the astrophysical results of the campaign. Aims. We revised the status of the cross-calibration among the scientific payload on board four operation missions: Chandra, NuSTAR, XMM-Newton, and the recently launched XRISM. XRISM carries the micro-calorimeter Resolve, which yields the best energy resolution at energies ≥2 keV. For this purpose, we used the data from a 10-day-long observational campaign targeting the nearby active galactic nucleus NGC 3783, carried out in July 2024. Methods. We present a novel model-independent method for assessing the cross-calibration status that is based on a multi-node spline of the spectra with the highest-resolving power (XRISM/Resolve in our campaign). We also estimated the impact of the intrinsic variability of NGC 3783 on the cross-calibration status due to the different time coverages of participating observatories and performed an empirical reassessment of the Resolve throughput at low energies. Results. Based on this analysis, we derived a set of energy-dependent correction factors of the observed responses, enabling a statistically robust analysis of the whole spectral dataset. They will be employed in subsequent papers describing the astrophysical results of the campaign.

Active Galactic Nuclei, individual: NGC 3783↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-interval distributions in a digital gamma multi-channel analyzer at extreme input rates

Here, this study explores the relationship between experimentally observed inter-event time-interval distributions (TIDs) and measured dead times for pulses generated by a HPGe gamma detector and processed by a digital spectrometer. The system utilizes a fast and slow channel, pile-up rejector, trapezoid filtering, and flash analog-to-digital converter. The experimentally derived TIDs were compared with theory for validation. The results demonstrate that the theoretical model reliably describes measured TIDs up to 40% dead time. However, significant distortion effects become increasingly pronounced at higher input rates. It appears that the deviation between the measured and calculated time-interval distributions take the shape of higher-order convolutions of the TID, which represent the time difference between counts for more than two successive events. In this work, theoretical functions for the TID are expanded to reproduce measurements up to 90%. This refinement in the interpretation and treatment of the measured TIDs provides improved accuracy and precision in the prediction of the true event rate and measured dead time in the counter. Even though it reflects occasional count loss that is specific to the set-up, it is expected that a similar adjustment may be applicable to other detection systems as well.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing twelve photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced forLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (lsst) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (desc). By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. Additionally, we report systematic biases and overall over/under-breadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate (CDE) loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗