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At least 577 records · Page 32

Opposed-Flow Flame Spreading in Reduced Gravity

Experimental results obtained in drop towers and in Space Shuttle based experiments coupled with modelling efforts are beginning to provide information that is allowing an understanding to be developed of the physics of opposed-flow flame spread at reduced gravity where the spread rate and flow velocity are comparable and of the role played by radiative and diffusive processes in flame spreading in microgravity. Here we describe one Space Shuttle based experiment on flame spreading in a quiescent environment, the Solid Surface Combustion Experiment, SSCE, one planned microgravity experiment on flame spreading in a radiatively-controlled, forced opposing flow environment, the Diffusive and Radiative Transport in Fires Experiment, DARTFire, modelling efforts to support these experiments, and some results obtained to date.

Altenkirch, Robert A.↗

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Parksinson, Claire↗

Vortex ring bubbles

Toroidal bubbles with circulation are studied numerically and by means of a physically motivated model equation. Two series of computations are performed by a boundary-integral method. One set shows the starting motion of an initially spherical bubble as a gravitationally driven liquid jet penetrates through the bubble from below causing a toroidal geometry to develop. The jet becomes broader as surface tension increases and fails to penetrate if surface tension is too large. The dimensionless circulation that develops is not very dependent on the surface tension. The second series of computations starts from a toroidal geometry, with circulation determined from the earlier series, and follows the motion of the rising and spreading vortex ring. Some modifications to the boundary-integral formulation were devised to handle the multiply connected geometry. The computations uncovered some unexpected rapid oscillations of the ring radius. These oscillations and the spreading of the ring are explained by the model equation which provides a more general description of vortex ring bubbles than previously available.

Lundgren, T. S.↗

Dynamics of the Molten Contact Line

The purpose of this program is to develop a basic understanding of how a molten material front spreads over a solid that is below its melting point, arrests, and freezes. Our hope is that the work will contribute toward a scientific knowledge base for certain new applications involving molten droplet deposition, including the "printing" of arbitrary three-dimensional objects by precise deposition of individual molten microdrops that solidify after impact. Little information is available at this time on the capillarity-driven motion and arrest of molten contact line regions. Schiaffino and Sonin investigated the arrest of the contact line of a molten microcrystalline wax spreading over a subcooled solid "target" of the same material. They found that contact line arrest takes place at an apparent liquid contact angle that depends primarily on the Stefan number S=c(T(sub f) -T(sub t)/L based on the temperature difference between the fusion point and the target temperature, and proposed that contact line arrest occurs when the liquid's dynamic contact angle approaches the angle of attack of the solidification front just behind the contact line. They also showed, however, that the conventional continuum equations and boundary conditions have no meaningful solution for this angle. The solidification front angle is determined by the heat flux just behind the contact line, and the heat flux is singular at that point. By comparing experiments with numerical computations, Schiaffino and Sonin estimated that the conventional solidification model must break down within a distance of order 0.1 - 1 microns of the contact line. The physical mechanism for this breakdown is as yet undetermined, and no first-principles theory exists for the contact angle at arrest. Schiaffino and Sonin also presented a framework for understanding how to moderate Weber number molten droplet deposition in terms of similarity laws and experimentation. The study is based on experiments with three molten materials- molten wax on solid wax, water on ice, and mercury on frozen mercury- which between them span a considerable range of the deposition/solidification similarity parameters. Correlations are obtained for the spreading velocity, spreading time scales, the spreading factor (i.e. ratio of deposited drop's final footprint radius and the drop's initial radius), post-spreading liquid oscillation amplitudes and time scales, and bulk solidification time scales. Duthaler carried out an experimental and theoretical investigation of the relationship between the liquid's apparent contact angle and the Capillary number Ca=mu U/sigma based on contact line speed, for molten materials spreading over subcooled solids. This relationship is required for modeling of melt spreading. We have adapted Voinov's methodology to the molten contact line and formulated a theoretical model for the Ca vs. contact angle relationship, based Schiaffino and Sonin#s (1997a,b) wedge-like solidification front model. With the solidification front angle taken from Schiaffino and Sonin, the model is in good agreement with the experimental results for Ca vs. contact angle. Duthaler also extended the experimental investigation of droplet deposition and contact line freezing to more materials, including solder on glass, solder on solder, water on ice, and molten microcrystalline wax on wax. The latter also included tests on inclined targets. Deposition tests have also been done with molten octacosane (C28H58) on various targets. An important objective of our program has been the development of micron-scale sensors for measuring the transient temperature at a point on the substrate surface as a molten contact line moves over it. The expectation is that this temperature history will yield a better understanding of the thermal process in the contact line region. The sensors are of the thermistor type, either 2.5 microns or 1.5 microns square, microfabricated with silicon-based technology on either pure silicon or amorphous silicon dioxide chips. Each chip has 32 sensors distributed on its surface in arrays. The time response is better than 10 ms. At the time of writing, sensor calibration is in progress. Results on thermal transients during contact line passage will be discussed at the conference. While we expect that the data will provide information on the near-contact-line heat transfer process, we also foresee possible problems. First, the spatial resolution of the sensors may be insufficient to resolve the near-contact-line region. Second, the sensors protrude about 0.5 microns above the substrate surface, and may affect the contact line motion. Third, a sensor's temperature history depends on both the heat flux distribution into it from the fusion front and the thermal properties of the substrate below it and the solidified melt between it and the fusion front. The heat flux distribution in the contact line region must therefore be unfolded from computations of the overall system's transient thermal response.

Sonin, Ain A.↗

Agent-Based Models for COVID-19 [Slides]

Goals: 1) Evaluate "what if” scenarios and mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 spread within LANL and 2) perform retrospective analysis to assess accuracy of LANL COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Efficient End-To-End Model for the Kepler Photometer

The Kepler Mission is designed to characterize the frequency of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of solar-like stars in the solar galactic neighborhood by observing >100,000 main-sequence stars in a >100 square degree field of view (FOV) and seeking evidence of transiting planets. As part of the system engineering effort, we have developed an End-To-End Model (ETEM) of the photometer to better characterize the expected performance of the instrument and to guide us in making design trades. This model incorporates engineering information such as the point spread function, time histories of pointing offsets, operating temperature, quantization noise, the effects of shutterless readout, and read noise. Astrophysical parameters, such as a realistic distribution of stars vs. magnitude for the chosen FOV, zodiacal light, and cosmic ray events are also included. For a given set of design and operating parameters, ETEM generates pixel time series for all pixels of interest for a single CCD channel of the photometer. These time series are then processed to form light curves for the target stars and the impact of various noise sources on the combined differential photometric precision can be determined. This model is of particular value when investigating the effects of noise sources that cannot be easily subjected to direct analysis, such as residual pointing offsets, thermal drift or cosmic ray effects. This version of ETEM features extremely efficient computation times relative to the previous version while maintaining a high degree of fidelity with respect to the realism of the relevant phenomena.

performance modeling↗

Diffusive and Radiative Transport in Fires (DARTFire): Opposed-Flow Flame Spread in Low-Velocity Flows

For flames spreading into a low-velocity flow that can only be obtained in microgravity, we have observed behavior that is different from that which is obtained at higher velocities where radiative effects are unimportant and species transport is relatively fast. Unfortunately, lack of a large body of low-gravity flame spread experimental data inhibits progress in developing an understanding of the physics of low-velocity, opposed-flow flame spread phenomena. Recent DARTFire sounding rocket experimental studies though, coupled with developing theory and modelling, have allowed some strides in understanding to be made, on which we report here. Four launches to date have resulted in six experiments for opposed-flow flame spread over a thick PMMA sample. During the 6 min microgravity period, the PMMA samples were ignited, and steady flame spread was studied under varied flow velocity, oxidizer atmospheric conditions, and, because radiative heat transfer is so important in these slowly spreading flames, external radiant flux. These were the first attempts at such experimental control and measurement in microgravity. A recent reflight of the Solid Surface Combustion Experiment (SSCE) has demonstrated, as modelling predicts, that for the thick fuel of the DARTFire experiment, flame spread in a quiescent environment is a transient process evolving from ignition to extinction on the order of 600 s (Altenkirch et al., 1999). Further study then of the effects of radiation in the very low-velocity opposing flows is of interest in understanding the transition from steady, sustained spread to the unsteady evolution to extinction as the opposing flow is reduced further and eventually removed.

Altenkirch, R. A.↗

Propagation of a Stress Pulse in a Heterogeneous Elastic Bar

The propagation of a wave pulse due to low-speed impact on a one-dimensional, heterogeneous bar is studied. Due to the dispersive character of the medium, the pulse attenuates as it propagates. This attenuation is studied over propagation distances that are much longer than the size of the microstructure. A homogenized peridynamic material model can be calibrated to reproduce the attenuation and spreading of the wave. The calibration consists of matching the dispersion curve for the heterogeneous material in the limit of long and moderately long wavelengths. It is demonstrated that the peridynamic method reproduces the attenuation of wave pulses predicted by an exact microstructural model over large propagation distances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Northeast US Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Invasive Plant Habitat Suitability to Support Management Efforts in the American Northeast

Invasive plant species threaten environmental and economic interests when they spread into new areas, outcompete native species, and disrupt ecosystem services. If the spread is not controlled early, species can become well-established and increasingly difficult to manage. The National Park Service (NPS) Invasive Plant Management Teams (IPMTs) strive for an “early detection, rapid response” approach to reducing invasive species spread. Management teams can better prioritize their work with the help of species distribution models (SDMs), which map habitat suitability by combining species occurrences with environmental predictor variables. Scarce invaded range data for newly arrived invasive species presents a particular challenge for producing accurate models. To improve future modeling efforts, this project compared SDM methods using different spatial scales to model two plant species invasive to the Northeast US: the well-established Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and newer invasive species wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius). The team used NASA Earth observations and climate datasets to model occurrence data and predictor layers at a US-specific extent (90m2 spatial resolution) and global extent (1 km2 spatial resolution). Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provided data for US Normalized Difference Moisture Indices (NDMI), while global NDMI and topographic predictor layers were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting models indicated important predictor variables for each species and explored the benefits and tradeoffs of using global data to model habitat suitability for new-arrival invasive species.

Rebecca Ohman↗

A nonlinear model for gas chromatograph systems

Fundamental engineering design techniques and concepts were studied for the optimization of a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer chemical analysis system suitable for use on an unmanned, Martian roving vehicle. Previously developed mathematical models of the gas chromatograph are found to be inadequate for predicting peak heights and spreading for some experimental conditions and chemical systems. A modification to the existing equilibrium adsorption model is required; the Langmuir isotherm replaces the linear isotherm. The numerical technique of Crank-Nicolson was studied for use with the linear isotherm to determine the utility of the method. Modifications are made to the method eliminate unnecessary calculations which result in an overall reduction of the computation time of about 42 percent. The Langmuir isotherm is considered which takes into account the composition-dependent effects on the thermodynamic parameter, mRo.

Feinberg, M. P.↗

Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near‐Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

Effinger, Michael↗

Comparing XRISM Cluster Velocity Dispersions with Predictions from Cosmological Simulations: Are Feedback Models Too Ejective?

The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.

galaxy clusters↗

The Spread of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Traced to Ocean Salinity

Abstract Ocean heat uptake (OHU) plays an important role in determining the rate of surface warming under CO 2 forcing. We examined the transient response to CO 2 forcing in a set of 30 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and found that the intermodel spread in OHU efficiency largely depends on the base‐state ocean stratification, especially in the Southern Ocean. This dependence is primarily traced to ocean salinity rather than ocean temperature. Models with weaker ocean stratification primarily due to higher upper‐ocean salinity tend to sequester heat into the deeper ocean, leading to a lower rate of surface warming, a primary reason for higher OHU efficiency; the stratification impact on total OHU is secondary. We applied the relationship between salinity and OHU efficiency for an emergent constraint on OHU efficiency, suggesting an OHU efficiency higher than the CMIP6 multimodel average and arguing against models with extremely low efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence↗

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed AI for Climate and Weather Risk Prediction (Final Report)

As part of the work Terrafuse developed 1) a model for wildfire risk in California, and 2) a model for downscaled wind fields from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) numerical models. The wildfire model is based on 20 years of historical data and captures the dependence of wildfire incidence and spread on climatic, weather and land-use variables by training a machine learning model. Nonlinear relationships between input features are learned and expressed by the model and model transparency allows features to be ranked and interpreted. The fire model is of use for accurately predicting real-time daily and long-term wildfire risk for use cases in energy and insurance. The downscaled wind model is a spatio-temporal deep learning model that emulates the influence of high-resolution variables on wind speed, allowing coarse-resolution operational NWP models to be accurately expressed on fine grids at high resolution, with application to wind energy and weather forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pancakelike domes on Venus

The shape of seven large domes on the plains of Venus, with volumes between 100 and 1000 cu km, is compared with that of an axisymmetric gravity current spreading over a rigid horizontal surface. Both the altimetric profiles and the horizontal projection of the line of intersection of domes on the SAR images agree well with the theoretical similarity solution for a newtonian fluid, but not with the shape calculated for a rigid-plastic rheology, nor with that for a static model with a strong skin. As a viscous current spreads, it generates an isotropic strain rate tensor whose magnitude is independent of radius. Such a flow can account for the randomly oriented cracks that are uniformly distributed on the surface of the domes. The stress induced by the flow in the plains material below is obtained, and is probably large enough to produce the short radial cracks in the surface of the plains beyond the domes. The viscosity of the domes can be estimated from their thermal time constants if spreading is possible only when the fluid is hot, and lies between 10(exp 14) and 10(exp 17) Pa s. Laboratory experiments show that such viscosities correspond to temperatures of 610 - 690 C in dry rhyolitic magmas. These temperatures agree with laboratory measurements of the solidus temperature of wet rhyolite. These results show that the development of the domes can be understood using simple fluid dynamical ideas, and that the magmas involved can be produced by wet melting at depths below 10 km, followed by eruption and degassing.

Mckenzie, Dan↗

Addressing spreading pressure dependence of real adsorbed solution theory with generalized Langmuir isotherm

This work addresses spreading pressure dependence of Real Adsorbed Solution Theory (RAST) for mixed-gas adsorption equilibria using generalized Langmuir (gL) isotherm. Considering vacant sites as an integral part of competitive multicomponent adsorption on a constant adsorbent surface area, the gL isotherm properly accounts for surface heterogeneity and loading, adsorbate composition, and temperature dependence. We show the spreading pressure dependence of adsorbate activity coefficient expression in the RAST framework can be generated from the gL isotherm. The procedure is illustrated with a spreading pressure dependent adsorption Nonrandom Furthermore, two-Liquid activity coefficient model, and the results are validated for ten binary mixed-gas adsorption equilibria systems including two highly nonideal azeotropic systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗