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DOE OSTI2021

Relocating microseismicity from downhole monitoring of the Decatur CCS site using a modified double-difference algorithm

SUMMARY The injection of CO2 at the Decatur carbon capture and storage site has generated significant microseismic activity, which occurs in distinct spatial clusters up to approximately 2.2 km from the primary injection well. Accurate and precise event locations are vital for the characterization of the microseismicity to help understand the reservoir response to the CO2 injection, whilst enabling the identification of minor faults and fractures below the resolution of conventional active seismic imaging. However, microseismic monitoring of fluid injection sites, such as Decatur, is often performed using a network of borehole sensors often from a single well. While these downhole sensors have excellent detection capabilities, their poor azimuthal coverage limits the ability to precisely determine event locations. We have developed a modified double-difference relocation algorithm suitable for both 1-D and 3-D velocity models, and which incorporates differential back azimuth observations to allow the benefits of the original double-difference algorithm to be applicable to a downhole microseismic monitoring setting. Applying the modified double-difference algorithm to the microseismicity at Decatur, we have successfully relocated 4293 events. The relocation included over 59 million observations for 757 285 event pairs, split across seven geographic regions. Despite the majority of observations being recorded in only two boreholes, with an almost identical azimuthal coverage, the results have shown to be reliable with significantly reduced residuals and low uncertainties associated with the final locations. We have analysed the residuals in terms of their association with each geographic region, data type, station and individual events, to fully appreciate their influence in the inversion and the fit of the data to the final set of event locations. For each region, the relocated seismicity has become less diffuse with improved clustering, and with newly visible linear features often orientated in a NE–SW direction. These results show the potential improvements that can be made to microseismic event locations recorded by a borehole network with a limited and variable azimuthal distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enriched Background Isotope Study (EBIS): Analysis of 14C-Enriched Carbon Cycle in Soils and Litter at Forested Oak Ridge and AmeriFlux Sites, 2001-2011

These data provide a record of the multi-year, multi-institutional Enriched Background Isotope Studies (EBIS) projects that ran from 2000 through 2011. Elevated levels of 14C enriched CO2 in the air and soil atmosphere as well as leaf, stem, and root tissues were observed on the Oak Ridge Reservations (ORR) during the summer of 1999, and were attributed to local incinerator activities on and/or near the ORR (Trumbore et al. 2002). The isolated enrichment of the background levels of 14C in local forest ecosystem represented a unique opportunity to study unresolved carbon cycling processes such as the contribution of leaf versus root litter contributions to soil carbon accumulation, the rate of vertical transport of carbon into deep soil storage pools, and the differential contribution of physicochemical versus faunal driven processes to soil carbon cycling and sequestration. Leaf litter from the local enriched forest was transplanted to selected sites on the ORR and to selected AmeriFlux study sites to study soil C cycling across a range of soils and climates. The EBIS research projects provide data on C flux from litter sources to mineral soil sinks for United States eastern hardwood forests necessary for testing process hypotheses and judging efficacy of soil C cycling models. Experimental results from this study are being used to parameterize and refine existing carbon dynamics models, the quantification of the long-term fate of ecosystem carbon inputs and as a means to judge the potential for ecosystem carbon sequestration via enhance litter inputs to soil. EBIS observations support conclusions that intra- and inter-annual soil carbon cycling in hardwood forest soils should be characterized as a least a two-compartment system where surface leaf-litter and belowground root turnover represent primary carbon sources for organic-layer and mineral-soil carbon cycles, respectively. EBIS experiments were conducted to complete enriched litterfall maniplations in upland forests on Ultisol and Inceptisol soils of the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We also collected additional14C-enriched materials for new experimental applications, and applied those materials to multiple AmeriFlux sites over a range of climatic, edaphic and biological conditions. The research provided data for addressing DOE's goal of understanding mechanisms controlling C flux, and for the improvement of models to be applied to policy discussions regarding the safe levels of greenhouse gases for the earth's system. There are 5 data files provided in comma separated (*.csv) format for vegetation, field litter, soil and air [C] and C isotope data from the EBIS studies and associated environmental data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amorphous zinc–molybdenum–sulfide chalcogel as a long-cycle, high-capacity electrode for lithium-ion batteries

The inherent limitations of intercalation-based electrodes in lithium-ion batteries have prompted the search for alternative materials with higher specific capacities and robust electrochemical stability. Sulfur-based electrodes, despite their high theoretical capacities (1672 mAh g −1 ), typically suffer from poor cycling performance. In this work, zinc molybdenum polysulfide (Zn x Mo 3 S 13 , 0.5 ≤ x), an amorphous semiconductor chalcogel, exhibits high specific capacity and excellent cycling stability. Synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function and extended X-ray absorption fine structure analyses reveal a short-range atomic structure comprising Mo–Mo, M–S (M = Mo, Zn), and S–S bonding motifs. The coordination environment of Mo and S closely resembles that of Mo 3 S 13 clusters, interconnected via S–S bridges and Zn 2+ cations. The Li/Zn x Mo 3 S 13 cell delivers an initial discharge capacity of 844 mAh g −1 at C/3, and retains 386.2 mAh g −1 after 1000 cycles with an average coulombic efficiency of 99.99%. The distribution of relaxation times analysis confirms the formation of a stable solid electrolyte interphase, which underpins the cell's long-term stability. In conclusion, this outstanding performance is attributed to the synergistic effects of the chalcogel's unique amorphous framework, semiconductive character, Zn-mediated polysulfide anchoring, and structural resilience, positioning Zn x Mo 3 S 13 chalcogel among the most durable pure metal sulfide cathodes reported for next-generation LIBs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control Mechanisms for Self‐Sealing in Activated Clay‐Rich Faults Through Controlled Hydraulic Injection Experiment

Abstract In a high‐pressure injection fault activation experiment conducted at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland, the transmissivity of the Opalinus Clay fault significantly increased due to opening and shearing. The fluid injection, spanning a few hours, generated a 10 m radius fault activation patch. Subsequent pressure pulse tests conducted bi‐weekly for a year revealed the gradual return of fault transmissivity to its initial state. The study utilized fluid pressure decay analysis, optical fiber monitoring, continuous active source seismic measurements and borehole displacement sensors for measuring fault displacements. The fault zone exhibited a dilation of approximately 1.4 mm, associated with both normal and tangential movements during activation, resulting in a sudden transmissivity increase from 1 × 10 −12 to 3.2 × 10 −7 m 2 /s. Early post‐activation, transient compaction and the subsequent slow compaction were observed, transitioning to an extension regime. The pressure pulse tests demonstrated a rapid transmissivity drop by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 10 days, followed by a gradual and less pronounced decrease. Plastic shear and compaction dominated the transmissivity evolution until 70 days after injection ended, followed by a period where additional factors, such as clay mineral swelling, influenced the behavior. Extrapolation suggested a sealing process taking at least 50 years after the initial activation. Plain Language Summary A field‐scale fault activation experiment offers valuable insights into the elasto‐plastic processes governing the sealing of shale faults. The experiment reveals a rapid increase in the fault's transmissivity by approximately five orders of magnitude during activation. Subsequent observations show a gradual transmissivity decrease by about three orders of magnitude post‐activation, with slow long‐term plastic shear and compaction of the fault competing against secondary processes, notably clay mineral swelling. All conceptual models employed to interpret these field data converge on the estimation that the fault's return to its initial low transmissivity state would require a minimum of 50 years. Key Points High‐pressure injection fault activation experiment at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory Continuous transmissivity measurements record self‐sealing inside a clay‐rich fault zone Transmissivity undergoes a phase of domination by slow plastic compaction and shearing during the initial post‐activation period, with mineral swelling exerting its influence over the long term

Guglielmi, Yves↗

DOE OSTI2020

A computationally-efficient method for flamelet calculations

A new open-source code for the simulation of the diffusion flamelet equations is proposed. Emphasis is placed on using an approximate Jacobian to reduce the computational cost of the matrix operations. Performance of the proposed solvers is tested by performing flamelet calculations with kinetic mechanisms of varying sizes. For the unity Lewis number equations, the present iterative Newton solver using an approximate Jacobian greatly outperforms direct Newton solvers using exact Jacobians. The computation cost scales linearly with the number of species, leading to a reduction in solution times by two orders of magnitude for mechanisms containing thousands of species. The applicability of the Jacobian approximations to the solution of the non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations is assessed. The approximations are generally inadequate to solve the full non-unity Lewis number equations but can be used in some applications depending on the balance of terms in the flamelet equations. As an example, the flamelet solver is applied to the study of sooting tendencies in laminar co-flow diffusion flames where modified non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations, previously shown to accurately reproduce experimentally-measured Yield Sooting Indices (YSI), are solved. Here, the accelerated flamelet solver is well suited for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with large detailed kinetic mechanisms, tasks for which the computational cost was previously prohibitive.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on Irrigation Return Flow Contributions to Stream Flow in Irrigated Alluvial Valleys

Irrigation can be a significant source of groundwater recharge in many agricultural regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid climates. Once infiltrated, irrigation recharge can travel via subsurface flowpaths that return to the river system in a lagged manner, supplementing natural streamflow weeks, months, or even years from when the irrigation was applied. In regions that experience low flows during summer and early fall, return flows can be a significant source of supplementary streamflow. Many water planning and operations models either ignore return flows or roughly approximate them with analytical solutions. Thus, return flows represent an important but often overlooked component of the hydrological exchange and overall water balance in agricultural regions. This study uses groundwater models to explore a wide range of factors that control irrigation return flow timing in irrigated alluvial valleys. A sensitivity analysis approach is used to assess how factors such as the extent of irrigated land adjacent to a stream, irrigation recharge rate, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, water table configuration, and seasonal fluctuations in stream stage control the timing of subsurface return flows. Modeling is conducted using MODFLOW models representing an irrigated alluvial valley adjacent to a stream. While a simplification of the full complexity in real systems, the models are a significant advancement from the analytical solution and provide new insight into the timescales of return flows over a broad range of possible conditions. To contextualize our modeling results, they are compared to an analytical solution commonly used for approximating return flows to evaluate its performance. Our findings show what factors and conditions influence return flow timing and control whether they contribute to streamflow over short term (months) or longer term (seasonal) time scales.

Ferencz, Stephen B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of ammonia with methanol, liquefied natural gas and conventional marine transportation fuels through life cycle cost and emissions analysis

This work evaluates ammonia as a potential marine fuel for a SUEZMAX tanker and compares it with methanol, liquefied natural gas, and conventional fuel oils. The motivation arises from the need to identify low-emission, cost-competitive fuel options that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The central hypothesis is that ammonia produced from renewable energy sources can achieve lower well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions with varying life cycle costs based on the region. Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis were performed for a thirty-year vessel lifetime on two representative trade routes: from Saudi Arabia to Japan and from Saudi Arabia to the Netherlands. Four ammonia production pathways were assessed: natural gas, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas pyrolysis, and renewable electricity–based synthesis. Results show that wind-based ammonia produced in Saudi Arabia achieved the lowest life cycle well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions, between 0.58 and 0.64 million metric tons, among all fuels when using regional grid process electricity. With renewable process electricity, ammonia produced from natural gas pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia showed comparable emissions of 0.37 to 0.44 million metric tons with wind-based ammonia of 0.37 to 0.43 million metric tons. Liquefied natural gas exhibited the lowest life cycle cost, between 402 and 412 million United States dollars, and the only negative carbon abatement cost, ranging from −277 to –322 United States dollars per metric ton of greenhouse gas, compared with high sulfur fuel oil. The findings indicate that renewable ammonia offers a promising long-term pathway for reducing shipping emissions, while liquefied natural gas remains the most cost-effective option in the near term.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active virus-host interactions at sub-freezing temperatures in Arctic peat soil

Abstract Background Winter carbon loss in northern ecosystems is estimated to be greater than the average growing season carbon uptake and is primarily driven by microbial decomposers. Viruses modulate microbial carbon cycling via induced mortality and metabolic controls, but it is unknown whether viruses are active under winter conditions (anoxic and sub-freezing temperatures). Results We used stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics to reveal the genomic potential of active soil microbial populations under simulated winter conditions, with an emphasis on viruses and virus-host dynamics. Arctic peat soils from the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska were incubated under sub-freezing anoxic conditions with H 2 18 O or natural abundance water for 184 and 370 days. We sequenced 23 SIP-metagenomes and measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux throughout the experiment. We identified 46 bacterial populations (spanning 9 phyla) and 243 viral populations that actively took up 18 O in soil and respired CO 2 throughout the incubation. Active bacterial populations represented only a small portion of the detected microbial community and were capable of fermentation and organic matter degradation. In contrast, active viral populations represented a large portion of the detected viral community and one third were linked to active bacterial populations. We identified 86 auxiliary metabolic genes and other environmentally relevant genes. The majority of these genes were carried by active viral populations and had diverse functions such as carbon utilization and scavenging that could provide their host with a fitness advantage for utilizing much-needed carbon sources or acquiring essential nutrients. Conclusions Overall, there was a stark difference in the identity and function of the active bacterial and viral community compared to the unlabeled community that would have been overlooked with a non-targeted standard metagenomic analysis. Our results illustrate that substantial active virus-host interactions occur in sub-freezing anoxic conditions and highlight viruses as a major community-structuring agent that likely modulates carbon loss in peat soils during winter, which may be pivotal for understanding the future fate of arctic soils' vast carbon stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

DOE OSTI2025

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bacterial hemophilin homologs and their specific type eleven secretor proteins have conserved roles in heme capture and are diversifying as a family

Cellular life relies on enzymes that require metals, which must be acquired from extracellular sources. Bacteria utilize surface and secreted proteins to acquire such valuable nutrients from their environment. These include the cargo proteins of the type eleven secretion system (T11SS), which have been connected to host specificity, metal homeostasis, and nutritional immunity evasion. This Sec-dependent, Gram-negative secretion system is encoded by organisms throughout the phylum Proteobacteria, including human pathogens Neisseria meningitidis, Proteus mirabilis, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Haemophilus influenzae. Experimentally verified T11SS-dependent cargo include transferrin-binding protein B (TbpB), the hemophilin homologs heme receptor protein C (HrpC), hemophilin A (HphA), the immune evasion protein factor-H binding protein (fHbp), and the host symbiosis factor nematode intestinal localization protein C (NilC). Here, we examined the specificity of T11SS systems for their cognate cargo proteins using taxonomically distributed homolog pairs of T11SS and hemophilin cargo and explored the ligand binding ability of those hemophilin cargo homologs. In vivo expression in Escherichia coli of hemophilin homologs revealed that each is secreted in a specific manner by its cognate T11SS protein. Sequence analysis and structural modeling suggest that all hemophilin homologs share an N-terminal ligand-binding domain with the same topology as the ligand-binding domains of the Haemophilus haemolyticus heme binding protein (Hpl) and HphA. We term this signature feature of this group of proteins the hemophilin ligand-binding domain. Network analysis of hemophilin homologs revealed five subclusters and representatives from four of these showed variable heme-binding activities, which, combined with sequence-structure variation, suggests that hemophilins are diversifying in function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole Genome Sequencing Links Mycobacterium bovis From Cattle, Cheese and Humans in Baja California, Mexico

Mycobacterium bovis causes tuberculosis (TB) in cattle, which in turn can transmit the pathogen to humans. Tuberculosis in dairy cattle is of particular concern where the consumption of raw milk and dairy products is customary. Baja California (BCA), Mexico, presents high prevalence of TB in both cattle and humans, making it important to investigate the molecular epidemiology of the disease in the region. A long-term study was undertaken to fully characterize the diversity of M. bovis genotypes circulating in dairy cattle, cheese and humans in BCA by whole-genome sequencing (WGS). During a 2-year period, 412 granulomatous tissue samples were collected from local abattoirs and 314 cheese samples were purchased from local stores and vendors in BCA and sent to the laboratory for mycobacterial culture, histology, direct PCR and WGS. For tissue samples M. bovis was recovered from 86.8%, direct PCR detected 90% and histology confirmed 85.9% as mycobacteriosis-compatible. For cheese, M. bovis was recovered from 2.5% and direct PCR detected 6% of the samples. There was good agreement between diagnostic tests. Subsequently, a total of 345 whole-genome SNP sequences were obtained. Phylogenetic analysis grouped these isolates into 10 major clades. SNP analysis revealed putative transmission clusters where the pairwise SNP distance between isolates from different dairies was ≤3 SNP. Also, human and/or cheese isolates were within 8.45 (range 0–17) and 5.8 SNP (range 0–15), respectively, from cattle isolates. Finally, a comparison between the genotypes obtained in this study and those reported previously suggests that the genetic diversity of M. bovis in BCA is well-characterized, and can be used to determine if BCA is the likely source of M. bovis in humans and cattle in routine epidemiologic investigations and future studies. In conclusion, WGS provided evidence of ongoing local transmission of M. bovis among the dairies in this high-TB burden region of BCA, as well as show close relationships between isolates recovered from humans, cheese, and cattle. This confirms the need for a coordinated One Health approach in addressing the elimination of TB in animals and humans. Overall, the study contributes to the knowledge of the molecular epidemiology of M. bovis in BCA, providing insight into the pathogen's dynamics in a high prevalence setting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transitioning from Stage-III to Stage-IV: cosmology from galaxy×CMB lensing and shear×CMB lensing

ABSTRACT We examine the cosmological constraining power from two cross-correlation probes between galaxy and cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys: the cross-correlation of lens galaxy density with CMB lensing convergence 〈δgκCMB〉, and source galaxy weak lensing shear with CMB lensing convergence 〈γκCMB〉. These two cross-correlation probes provide an independent cross-check of other large-scale structure constraints and are insensitive to galaxy-only or CMB-only systematic effects. In addition, when combined with other large-scale structure probes, the cross-correlations can break degeneracies in cosmological and nuisance parameters, improving both the precision and robustness of the analysis. In this work, we study how the constraining power of 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 changes from Stage-III (ongoing) to Stage-IV (future) surveys. Given the flexibility in selecting the lens galaxy sample, we also explore systematically the impact on cosmological constraints when we vary the redshift range and magnitude limit of the lens galaxies using mock galaxy catalogs. We find that in our setup, the contribution to cosmological constraints from 〈δgκCMB〉 and 〈γκCMB〉 are comparable in the Stage-III data sets; but in Stage-IV surveys, the noise in 〈δgκCMB〉 becomes subdominant to cosmic variance, preventing 〈δgκCMB〉 to further improve the constraints. This implies that to maximize the cosmological constraints from future 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 analyses, we should focus more on the requirements on 〈γκCMB〉 instead of 〈δgκCMB〉. Furthermore, the selection of the lens sample should be optimized in terms of our ability to characterize its redshift or galaxy bias instead of its number density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Real space iterative reconstruction for vector tomography (RESIRE-V)

Tomography has had an important impact on the physical, biological, and medical sciences. To date, most tomographic applications have been focused on 3D scalar reconstructions. However, in some crucial applications, vector tomography is required to reconstruct 3D vector fields such as the electric and magnetic fields. Over the years, several vector tomography methods have been developed. Here, we present the mathematical foundation and algorithmic implementation of REal Space Iterative REconstruction for Vector tomography, termed RESIRE-V. RESIRE-V uses multiple tilt series of projections and iterates between the projections and a 3D reconstruction. Each iteration consists of a forward step using the Radon transform and a backward step using its transpose, then updates the object via gradient descent. Incorporating with a 3D support constraint, the algorithm iteratively minimizes an error metric, defined as the difference between the measured and calculated projections. The algorithm can also be used to refine the tilt angles and further improve the 3D reconstruction. To validate RESIRE-V, we first apply it to a simulated data set of the 3D magnetization vector field, consisting of two orthogonal tilt series, each with a missing wedge. Our quantitative analysis shows that the three components of the reconstructed magnetization vector field agree well with the ground-truth counterparts. We then use RESIRE-V to reconstruct the 3D magnetization vector field of a ferromagnetic meta-lattice consisting of three tilt series. Our 3D vector reconstruction reveals the existence of topological magnetic defects with positive and negative charges. We expect that RESIRE-V can be incorporated into different imaging modalities as a general vector tomography method. To make the algorithm accessible to a broad user community, we have made our RESIRE-V MATLAB source codes and the data freely available at https://github.com/minhpham0309/RESIRE-V.

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DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

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