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At least 577 records · Page 32

Status of EM Pump Modeling Capability for VTR

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. Most recently, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been selected as the safety analysis software for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), a new materials testing Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) to be built by the Department of Energy. In order to support analysis of the VTR, which will utilize ElectroMagnetic (EM) pumps as the primary coolant pumps, the development of new EM pump modeling capabilities has been initiated for SAS4/SASSYS-1. The new physics-based EM pump model captures systems-level transient performance based on equivalent circuit theory and is highly flexible to model a wide range of electromagnetic pumps of the three-phase linear induction type subject to changes in power supply and plant conditions. Within the equivalent circuit framework, two sub-models are developed to provide options for analysts both with and without a detailed geometric characterization of their pump such that minimal information is required to achieve a realistic working model, but specific details of a particular pump design may be captured if sufficient information is provided. In addition, heat generated from pump operation and its transport through the plant system can be modeled to better capture the behavior of certain transients. This paper will outline the model and derive the governing equations of the new EM pump model. An initial comparison between the simple EM pump model and experimental data is made. This comparison shows that the equivalent circuit model can capture pump performance, with greater accuracy near the rated conditions. In order to demonstrate the transient behavior of the new model, a simple transient with an EM pump replacing the centrifugal pumps in the Advanced Burner Test Reactor is included.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Status of EM Pump Modeling Capability for VTR

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. Most recently, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been selected as the safety analysis software for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), a new materials testing Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) to be built by the Department of Energy. In order to support analysis of the VTR, which will utilize ElectroMagnetic (EM) pumps as the primary coolant pumps, the development of new EM pump modeling capabilities has been initiated for SAS4/SASSYS-1. The new physics-based EM pump model captures systems-level transient performance based on equivalent circuit theory and is highly flexible to model a wide range of electromagnetic pumps of the three-phase linear induction type subject to changes in power supply and plant conditions. Within the equivalent circuit framework, two sub-models are developed to provide options for analysts both with and without a detailed geometric characterization of their pump such that minimal information is required to achieve a realistic working model, but specific details of a particular pump design may be captured if sufficient information is provided. In addition, heat generated from pump operation and its transport through the plant system can be modeled to better capture the behavior of certain transients. This paper will outline the model and derive the governing equations of the new EM pump model. An initial comparison between the simple EM pump model and experimental data is made. This comparison shows that the equivalent circuit model can capture pump performance, with greater accuracy near the rated conditions. In order to demonstrate the transient behavior of the new model, a simple transient with an EM pump replacing the centrifugal pumps in the Advanced Burner Test Reactor is included.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Amortized simulation-based frequentist inference for tractable and intractable likelihoods

Abstract High-fidelity simulators that connect theoretical models with observations are indispensable tools in many sciences. If the likelihood is known, inference can proceed using standard techniques. However, when the likelihood is intractable or unknown, a simulator makes it possible to infer the parameters of a theoretical model directly from real and simulated observations when coupled with machine learning. We introduce an extension of the recently proposed likelihood-free frequentist inference ( LF2I ) approach that makes it possible to construct confidence sets with the p -value function and to use the same function to check the coverage explicitly at any given parameter point. Like LF2I , this extension yields provably valid confidence sets in parameter inference problems for which a high-fidelity simulator is available. The utility of our algorithm is illustrated by applying it to three pedagogically interesting examples: the first is from cosmology, the second from high-energy physics and astronomy, both with tractable likelihoods, while the third, with an intractable likelihood, is from epidemiology 3 3 Code to reproduce all of our results is available on https://github.com/AliAlkadhim/ALFFI . .

Computer Science↗

A Hybrid CFD/Engineering Model Tool for Lunar Lander Surface Erosion Prediction

Plume-Surface Interaction (PSI) between lander engine plumes and landing area regolith poses risks to the landers and space exploration missions through view obscuration and high-energy ejecta impacts from eroded particle clouds and vehicle tilting from plume-induced craters. To address these risks, NASA MSFC Fluid Dynamics Branch (ER42) has developed a cascade of predictive simulation capabilities for PSI, including the recent development of a hybrid CFD/engineering model tool that allows for rapid PSI simulations with a descending/ascending vehicle and an eroding surface. The development of this fully-coupled, moving body/eroding surface simulation capability is detailed along with a demonstration of the tool’s capabilities on the Apollo 12 Lunar Module landing. Predictions of eroded mass flow rates as a function of time are verified against Apollo 12 flight data, from which the developed, viscous erosion model has been calibrated.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

A Hybrid CFD/Engineering Model Tool for Lunar Lander Surface Erosion Prediction

Plume-Surface Interaction (PSI) between lander engine plumes and landing area regolith poses risks to the landers and space exploration missions through view obscuration and high-energy ejecta impacts from eroded particle clouds and vehicle tilting from plume-induced craters. To address these risks, NASA MSFC Fluid Dynamics Branch (ER42) has developed a cascade of predictive simulation capabilities for PSI, including the recent development of a hybrid CFD/engineering model tool that allows for rapid PSI simulations with a descending/ascending vehicle and an eroding surface. The development of this fully-coupled, moving body/eroding surface simulation capability is detailed along with a demonstration of the tool’s capabilities on the Apollo 12 Lunar Module landing. Predictions of eroded mass flow rates as a function of time are verified against Apollo 12 flight data, from which the developed, viscous erosion model has been calibrated.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

Error-Free Software

001 is an integrated tool suited for automatically developing ultra reliable models, simulations and software systems. Developed and marketed by Hamilton Technologies, Inc. (HTI), it has been applied in engineering, manufacturing, banking and software tools development. The software provides the ability to simplify the complex. A system developed with 001 can be a prototype or fully developed with production quality code. It is free of interface errors, consistent, logically complete and has no data or control flow errors. Systems can be designed, developed and maintained with maximum productivity. Margaret Hamilton, President of Hamilton Technologies, also directed the research and development of USE.IT, an earlier product which was the first computer aided software engineering product in the industry to concentrate on automatically supporting the development of an ultrareliable system throughout its life cycle. Both products originated in NASA technology developed under a Johnson Space Center contract.

Source record↗

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Simulink Model Analysis

Formal verification and simulation are powerful tools for the verification of requirements against complex systems. Requirements are developed in early stages of the software lifecycle and are typically expressed in natural language. There is a gap between such requirements and their software implementations.We present a framework that bridges this gap by supporting a tight integration and feedback loop between high-level requirements and their analysis against software artifacts. Our framework implements an analysis portal within the fret requirements elicitation tool, thus forming an end-to-end, open-source environment where requirements are written in an intuitive, structured natural language, and are verified automatically against Simulink models.

Mavridou, Anastasia↗

High Precision Thermal, Structural and Optical Analysis of an External Occulter Using a Common Model and the General Purpose Multi-Physics Analysis Tool Cielo

The efficient simulation of multidisciplinary thermo-opto-mechanical effects in precision deployable systems has for years been limited by numerical toolsets that do not necessarily share the same finite element basis, level of mesh discretization, data formats, or compute platforms. Cielo, a general purpose integrated modeling tool funded by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Exoplanet Exploration Program, addresses shortcomings in the current state of the art via features that enable the use of a single, common model for thermal, structural and optical aberration analysis, producing results of greater accuracy, without the need for results interpolation or mapping. This paper will highlight some of these advances, and will demonstrate them within the context of detailed external occulter analyses, focusing on in-plane deformations of the petal edges for both steady-state and transient conditions, with subsequent optical performance metrics including intensity distributions at the pupil and image plane.

integrated modeling↗

Collaborative Aerospace Research and Fellowship Program at NASA Glenn Research Center

During the summer of 2004, a 10-week activity for university faculty entitled the NASA-OAI Collaborative Aerospace Research and Fellowship Program (CFP) was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center in collaboration with the Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI). This is a companion program to the highly successful NASA Faculty Fellowship Program and its predecessor, the NASA-ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program that operated for 38 years at Glenn. The objectives of CFP parallel those of its companion, viz., (1) to further the professional knowledge of qualified engineering and science faculty,(2) to stimulate an exchange of ideas between teaching participants and employees of NASA, (3) to enrich and refresh the research and teaching activities of participants institutions, and (4) to contribute to the research objectives of Glenn. However, CFP, unlike the NASA program, permits faculty to be in residence for more than two summers and does not limit participation to United States citizens. Selected fellows spend 10 weeks at Glenn working on research problems in collaboration with NASA colleagues and participating in related activities of the NASA-ASEE program. This year's program began officially on June 1, 2004 and continued through August 7, 2004. Several fellows had program dates that differed from the official dates because university schedules vary and because some of the summer research projects warranted a time extension beyond the 10 weeks for satisfactory completion of the work. The stipend paid to the fellows was $1200 per week and a relocation allowance of $1000 was paid to those living outside a 50-mile radius of the Center. In post-program surveys from this and previous years, the faculty cited numerous instances where participation in the program has led to new courses, new research projects, new laboratory experiments, and grants from NASA to continue the work initiated during the summer. Many of the fellows mentioned amplifying material, both in undergraduate and graduate courses, on the basis of the summer s experience at Glenn. A number of 2004 fellows indicated that proposals to NASA will grow out of their summer research projects. In addition, some journal articles and NASA publications will result from this past summer s activities. Fellows from past summers continue to send reprints of articles that resulted from work initiated at Glenn. This report is intended primarily to summarize the research activities comprising the 2004 CFP Program at Glenn. Particular research studies include: 1) Development of an Imaging-Based, Computational Fluid Dynamics Tool to Assess Fluid Mechanics in Experimental Models that Simulate Blood Vessels; 2) Analysis of Nanomaterials Produced from Precursors; and 3) LEO Propagation Analysis Tool.

Heyward, Ann O.↗

Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS

The Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Spirit and Opportunity, far exceeded their original drive distance expectations and have traveled, at the time of this reporting, a combined 29 kilometers across the surface of Mars. The Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP), the current program used to plan drives for MERs, is only a kinematic simulator of rover movement. Therefore, rover response to various terrains and soil types cannot be modeled. Although sandbox experiments attempt to model rover-terrain interaction, these experiments are time-intensive and costly, and they cannot be used within the tactical timeline of rover driving. Imaging techniques and hazard avoidance features on MER help to prevent the rover from traveling over dangerous terrains, but mobility issues have shown that these methods are not always sufficient. ARTEMIS, a dynamic modeling tool for MER, allows planned drives to be simulated before commands are sent to the rover. The deformable soils component of this model allows rover-terrain interactions to be simulated to determine if a particular drive path would take the rover over terrain that would induce hazardous levels of slip or sink. When used in the rover drive planning process, dynamic modeling reduces the likelihood of future mobility issues because high-risk areas could be identified before drive commands are sent to the rover, and drives planned over these areas could be rerouted. The ARTEMIS software consists of several components. These include a preprocessor, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Adams rover model, wheel and soil parameter files, MSC Adams GUI (commercial), MSC Adams dynamics solver (commercial), terramechanics subroutines (FORTRAN), a contact detection engine, a soil modification engine, and output DEMs of deformed soil. The preprocessor is used to define the terrain (from a DEM) and define the soil parameters for the terrain file. The Adams rover model is placed in this terrain. Wheel and soil parameter files can be altered in the respective text files. The rover model and terrain are viewed in Adams View, the GUI for ARTEMIS. The Adams dynamics solver calls terramechanics subroutines in FORTRAN containing the Bekker-Wong equations.

Trease, Brian P.↗

Next Generation Co-Molded One-Piece Automotive Parts

The purpose of this project was to determine the feasibility of co-molding Class A Sheet Molding Compound (SMC), structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg materials to produce a single piece co-molded automotive part, such as a hood. The combination of the three molding materials and the incorporation of selective design features (ribs, flanges, corrugations) was expected to eliminate the need for inner reinforcement panels, significantly reducing tooling costs and simplifying the manufacturing process. A multi-material solution would also result in significant weight savings. The scope of this project included the material characterization of the three materials, development of cure and flow simulation models, and validation of the models against parts molded with different combinations of the materials on an 11”x11” plaque tool with rib features. The intent of this project was to apply the learnings obtained from co-molding a part with simplified geometry to a Phase 2 project that would produce a single piece hood, co-molded with the same materials. Resins from INEOS Composites were provided to IDI to produce SMC and continuous fiber prepregs. Purdue University and INEOS Composites characterized the rheological and curing behavior of the different materials as well as the mechanical properties of the co-molded parts. This data was used by Purdue University to create simulation models. Models were created to predict both flow patterns and predict mechanical properties of different laminate constructions in and around the ribs. Michigan State University - Corktown validated Purdue’s models by co-molding the three materials in different combinations on a tool containing rib features provided by Century Tool. The co-molded parts were evaluated against the simulation models by Purdue, Corktown and INEOS. The project team demonstrated the following: • The ability to obtain a cohesive co-molded structure made up of Class A SMC, Structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg. • The ability to obtain a co-molded part with a Class A surface • Modeling of flow and fiber orientation • Modeling to predict mechanical properties of multi-material co-molded structures The predicted flow behavior and fiber orientation from simulations were then compared with the molded samples. Exact local orientation state was difficult to compare between microscopy and flow simulation, but captured general trends. Multi-material flow behavior was generally modeled well with SMC materials, but the introduction of woven material sheets requires further model development. Purdue compared the predicted versus actual mechanical properties, and INEOS Composites evaluated the surface appearance of unpainted and painted co-molded parts. The models developed by Purdue demonstrated that the mechanical properties can be predicted for parts with varying material configurations. The resulting models can be applied to future co-molded part design, tooling design, and molding conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advancing Fissile Materials Production Modeling with Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES)

The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) provides advanced capabilities to simulate the uranium enrichment process to support international negotiations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Uranium isotope separation centrifuges connected in a cascade configuration can produce the low-enriched uranium needed for nuclear power. However, those same centrifuges connected in a different configuration can also produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Having the capability to assess cascade operations and identify nefarious activities promotes the peaceful uses of nuclear energy while restricting nuclear weapons proliferation. DNN R&D's Nonproliferation Stewardship Program Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES) project is creating a modern, sustainable ecosystem of physics-based models and data-analytics tools that enables analysts to model uranium enrichment systems, simulate operational scenarios, and apply various policy options to explore potential outcomes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Behind the Meter Storage for Electric Vehicle Charging, Electrochemical and Thermal Energy Storage, and Solar Photovoltaic

In response to the potentially large and irregular demand from EVs, along with changing load profiles from buildings with on-site generation, utilities are evaluating multiple options for managing dynamic loads, including time-of-use pricing, demand charges, battery storage, and curtailment of variable generation. Buildings, as well as commercial, public, and workplace EV charging operations, can use a combination of electrochemical battery storage and thermal energy storage coupled with on-site generation to manage energy costs as well as provide resiliency and reliability for EV charging and building energy loads. We are completing a behind the meter storage analysis that focuses on determining the optimal system designs and energy flows for thermal and electrochemical behind the meter storage with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation enabling electric vehicle charging in various climates, building types, and utility rate structures. In completing this analysis, we have developed a tool that combines existing battery models via the System Advisor Model (SAM) and building modeling software via EnergyPlus into a single interface. This tool allows us to simulate a building with a detailed battery model to properly size the battery, thermal energy storage, and solar PV systems to maximize profit for the system owner. This also allows us to assess how the battery degrades under various supervisory control dispatch algorithms to control charging/discharging; we can also see how thermal energy storage is created and used to complement the battery to reduce thermal loads in the building. With this project, we can analyze new batteries that are designed specifically for energy storage, rather than designed to be extremely energy dense for electric vehicle applications, using battery lifetime models from other national labs and the existing SAM battery model, which has detailed lifetime and degradation parameters. We can also assess novel thermal storage technologies by integrating them into the whole building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Because the model calls both SAM and EnergyPlus, required inputs need to be compatible for both models. These inputs include, on a high-level, the following: weather files, building and electric vehicle load profiles, electricity rate tariff information, and system cost information for the stationary battery, solar PV, and thermal storage system. The various buildings we are studying for this analysis are retail big-box grocery store, commercial office building, fleet vehicle depot and operations facility, multi-family residential, and electric vehicle charging station. For these different applications, the battery and thermal storage will be dispatched differently, and the various technologies are sized differently to optimize cost.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions

Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards a NEAMS-based high-fidelity model of the MARVEL reactor

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory in developing a high-fidelity and high-resolution model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation reactor. The model was developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation microreactor application driver at Idaho National Laboratory. The overarching objective of this activity is the development of a high-fidelity multiphysics MARVEL model using NEAMS tools, and to verify and validate NEAMS tools against MARVEL reference simulation and experimental data, respectively. This is a unique opportunity to conduct multiphysics analysis on a soon-to-be-deployed microreactor. This multiphysics model developed under the NEAMS-funded INL microreactor application driver leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApp and Transfer systems. The latter systems enable in-memory data transfer between MOOSE-based and MOOSE-wrapped applications. The first single-physics model, that functions as main application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). Several optimization flags that were developed by the Griffin developer team were beta-tested to enhance the solver’s performance. These include the combined use of using_average_xs and update_averaged_xs_on that enable to avoid expensive on-the-fly cross sections evaluations at each linear iterations in favor of evaluations of the macroscopic cross sections at each Picard iteration. The second single-physics model uses BISON to handle solid heat transfer and asymptotic hydrogen redistribution analysis in the fuel. While the model returns consistent results for the temperature and hydrogen distribution in the fuel, a mismatch was noticed in the calculated temperature in the reflector due to the value of the gap conductance used in our model. Ongoing investigations are being performed to assess the origin of this discrepancy. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. A first verification was also performed showing good agreement in terms of mass flow rate and inlet temperature. All mesh files were generated using the MOOSE Reactor module, removing the need for external meshing tools. Notably, this workscope represents one of the initial applications of the MOOSE Reactor module for modeling highly irregular geometries. The use of the reactor module significantly streamlined the mesh generation process. The full multiphysics mode, that combines all the single physics models, was leveraged to conduct initial steady-state multiphysics simulations to compute power, and temperature distribution in the reactor. Initial testing was performed for transient simulations as well. In this case, the new checkpoint restart capability for eigenvalue calculations was tested showing the capability for streamlined restart of transient calculations. Future work will focus on improving the fidelity of the model by performing comprehensive code-to-code comparisons. For instance, the full-core Griffin neutronics model will be benchmarked against MCNP reference results, that were provided by the MARVEL design team. Additionally, the SAM T/H model will be verified against reference RELAP-5 results for selected accident scenarios. Besides code-to-code verification exercises, the model fidelity will be improved by replacing the single-channel SAM model with a more complex SAM-Pronghorn coupled model, in which the sub-channel capability is deployed to obtain radial temperature resolution in the coolant. This model will be developed in synergy with the NEAMS thermal hydraulics team.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Combustion Modeling for Complex Turbulent Flows

The next generation of aircraft engines will need to pass stricter efficiency and emission tests. NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) program has set an ambitious goal of 70% reduction of NO(x) emissions and a 15% increase in fuel efficiency of aircraft engines. We will demonstrate the state-of-the-art combustion tools developed a t Stanford's Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) as part of this program. In the last decade, CTR has spear-headed a multi-physics-based combustion modeling program. Key technologies have been transferred to the aerospace industry and are currently being used for engine simulations. In this demo, we will showcase the next-generation combustion modeling tools that integrate a very high level of detailed physics into advanced flow simulation codes. Combustor flows involve multi-phase physics with liquid fuel jet breakup, evaporation, and eventual combustion. Individual components of the simulation are verified against complex test cases and show excellent agreement with experimental data.

Ham, Frank Stanford↗

Flight Testing an Iced Business Jet for Flight Simulation Model Validation

A flight test of a business jet aircraft with various ice accretions was performed to obtain data to validate flight simulation models developed through wind tunnel tests. Three types of ice accretions were tested: pre-activation roughness, runback shapes that form downstream of the thermal wing ice protection system, and a wing ice protection system failure shape. The high fidelity flight simulation models of this business jet aircraft were validated using a software tool called "Overdrive." Through comparisons of flight-extracted aerodynamic forces and moments to simulation-predicted forces and moments, the simulation models were successfully validated. Only minor adjustments in the simulation database were required to obtain adequate match, signifying the process used to develop the simulation models was successful. The simulation models were implemented in the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device (ICEFTD) to enable company pilots to evaluate flight characteristics of the simulation models. By and large, the pilots confirmed good similarities in the flight characteristics when compared to the real airplane. However, pilots noted pitch up tendencies at stall with the flaps extended that were not representative of the airplane and identified some differences in pilot forces. The elevator hinge moment model and implementation of the control forces on the ICEFTD were identified as a driver in the pitch ups and control force issues, and will be an area for future work.

Ratvasky, Thomas P.↗

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗