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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Numerical analysis of a time discretized method for nonlinear filtering problem with Lévy process observations

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear filtering model with observations driven by correlated Wiener processes and point processes. We first derive a Zakai equation whose solution is an unnormalized probability density function of the filter solution. Then, we apply a splitting-up technique to decompose the Zakai equation into three stochastic differential equations, based on which we construct a splitting-up approximate solution and prove its half-order convergence. Furthermore, we apply a finite difference method to construct a time semi-discrete approximate solution to the splitting-up system and prove its half-order convergence to the exact solution of the Zakai equation. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiobjective Modular Biorefinery Configuration under Uncertainty

With increasing interest in using biomass as a raw material for fuel, the development of biorefineries is an active area of research. However, increasing market competition, uncertainty, and environmental concerns are a few of the challenges that need to be addressed. In this work, mathematical optimization formulations are proposed to address these challenges simultaneously. A multiobjective deterministic optimization framework is proposed to address economic and environmental objectives. A two-stage stochastic optimization framework is proposed to account for uncertainties in material flow and product yields. To model the environmental objective, an environmental risk metric is proposed. Finally, as modularization is gaining popularity in the process industry due to its ability to save capital cost because of standardization and reduce time to market, a formulation for simultaneously achieving modular process design and biorefinery configuration is proposed. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗
DOE OSTI2021

nuSTORM Accelerator Challenges and Opportunities

The nuSTORM facility uses a stored muon beam to generate a neutrino source. Muons are captured and stored in a storage ring using stochastic injection. The facility will aim to measure neutrino-nucleus scattering cross-sections with uniquely well-characterized neutrino beams; to facilitate the search for sterile neutrino and other Beyond Standard Model processes with exquisite sensitivity, and to provide a muon source that makes an excellent technology test-bed required for the development of muon beams capable of serving as a multi-TeV collider. In this paper, we describe the latest status of the development of nuSTORM, the R&D needs, and the potential for nuSTORM as a Muon Collider test facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Stochastic-Interval Operation Strategy for Multi-Energy Microgrids

Increasing deployment of distributed energy resources intensifies interactions among electric, gas, heating, and cooling systems. Inherent uncertainties ranging from internal parameters to external inputs also impose significant challenges on system operation. A coordinated scheduling method is, therefore, desired for facilitating efficient operation of multi-energy microgrids under multiple uncertainties. In this paper, a deterministic coordinated scheduling model is developed first with detailed modeling of system dynamics and device parameters to fully characterize complex interactions among multi-energy carriers. Then, a hybrid stochastic-interval method is proposed to account for heterogeneous uncertainties in decisions of operational strategies. Specifically, performance and efficiency uncertainties of distributed energy resources, and injection uncertainty of renewable sources and multienergy demands are characterized by interval-based uncertain operation regions and probability distributions, respectively. A scenario-based two-stage algorithm is developed to solve the problem so that multiple uncertainties are preserved in the entire decision-making process. Moreover, adjustable operational strategies are determined to hedge uncertainty by considering operators’ risk preferences. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comprehensive case studies on a test system.

hybrid stochastic-interval approach↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Solution Accuracy and Convergence for Stochastic Physics Parameterizations with Colored Noise

Stochastic parameterizations are used in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling to help capture the uncertainty in the simulations and improve their statistical properties. Convergence issues can arise when time integration methods originally developed for deterministic differential equations are applied naively to stochastic problems. In previous studies, it has been demonstrated that a correction term, known in stochastic analysis as the Itô correction, can help improve solution accuracy for various deterministic numerical schemes and ensure convergence to the physically relevant solution without substantial computational overhead. The usual formulation of the Itô correction is valid only when the stochasticity is represented by white noise. In this study, a generalized formulation of the Itô correction is derived for noises of any color. The formulation is applied to a test problem described by an advection–diffusion equation forced with a spectrum of fast processes. We present numerical results for cases with both constant and spatially varying advection velocities to show that, for the same time step sizes, the introduction of the generalized Itô correction helps to substantially reduce time integration error and significantly improve the convergence rate of the numerical solutions when the forcing term in the governing equation is rough (fast varying); alternatively, for the same target accuracy, the generalized Itô correction allows for the use of significantly longer time steps and, hence, helps to reduce the computational cost of the numerical simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Online Learning of Effective Turbine Wind Speed in Wind Farms

To develop better wind farm controllers that can meet more complex objectives, methods of modeling the wind turbine wakes at low computational expense are needed. Gaussian process (GP) regression offers a computationally inexpensive framework for learning complex functions from noisy measurements with very few datapoints. In this work, an online learning approach is presented to learn the rotor-averaged wind velocity at downstream wind turbines with GPs, using the available datastream of wind field measurements and wind turbine control set-points. This framework can readily be integrated into model-based controls methods because the model a) is updated online at low computational expense, b) assumes a mathematically favorable Gaussian form, and c) explicitly quantifies the stochastic nature of the wake field so that the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, and the uncertainty in the prediction, can be utilized. We show that a GP-learned model can match true values with errors within 0.5% on average, with as few as 5 training data points.

Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2021

A deterministic verification strategy for electrostatic particle-in-cell algorithms in arbitrary spatial dimensions using the method of manufactured solutions

As simulations of kinetic plasmas continue to increase in scope and complexity, a rigorous and straightforward method for verifying particle-in-cell (PIC) implementations is necessary to ensure their correctness. Here, in this paper, we present a deterministic method for the rigorous verification of multidimensional, multispecies, electrostatic particle-in-cell codes based on the method of manufactured solutions. Specifically, we prove that rigorous verification is possible through the exclusive examination of errors of grid quantities (i.e., moments and/or fields), allowing for a very light-weight and non-intrusive implementation in existing PIC codes. This is a marked improvement over earlier PIC verification approaches (only demonstrated with one species in 1D-1V), which rely on the comparison of cumulative distribution functions, and are invasive on the code base, introduce additional stochastic noise, are significantly more computationally expensive, and lack rigorous convergence properties. Interestingly, we show that different grid quantities feature different rates of convergence with the number of particles and mesh size, impacting the verification process. These theoretical results are confirmed numerically with a multi-species 2D-2V particle-in-cell code, including the ability of the method to detect order reduction due to an incorrect implementation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correspondence between neuroevolution and gradient descent

Abstract We show analytically that training a neural network by conditioned stochastic mutation or neuroevolution of its weights is equivalent, in the limit of small mutations, to gradient descent on the loss function in the presence of Gaussian white noise. Averaged over independent realizations of the learning process, neuroevolution is equivalent to gradient descent on the loss function. We use numerical simulation to show that this correspondence can be observed for finite mutations, for shallow and deep neural networks. Our results provide a connection between two families of neural-network training methods that are usually considered to be fundamentally different.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Neural Network Algorithm for CMC Microstructure Characterization and Variability Quantification

Microstructure characterization and variability quantification are crucial for understanding ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) mechanical behavior and deformation mechanisms across length scales. Traditionally, analyses of the micrographs obtained from microscopy are labor-intensive. However, with the vast improvement in computer vision (CV) and deep learning (DL), an automated algorithm can be designed to extract essential microstructure variability from micrographs which can then be used to construct a statistically representative volume element (SRVE). The DL-based algorithm spans the taxonomy of microstructure analyses, including semantic segmentation of microstructure constituents, secondary phases, matrix/fiber interface, and defects, and quantifying the microstructure variability in terms of probability distributions. In this work, C/SiNC and SiC/SiNC CMCs microstructures are semantically segmented through a deep convolutional neural network, followed by variability quantification through the implementation of a fully connected regression layer, hence forming a deep regression network. The deep regression network operates in a feedforward regime, in which the neuron output signal traverses through the network in a unidirectional manner. The weight tensor associated with each layer is updated through a backpropagation stochastic gradient descent approach. The input gray-scale image obtained through in-house scanning electron microscope and confocal microscope micrographs is augmented through affine transformations to increase the training set size, which is then processed through four strided convolutional layers. This compresses the image resolution by half at each layer while increasing the image depth by applying different filters (image encoding). The class activation maps (CAMs) corresponding to the applied filters highlight the key architectural features and assist with the semantic segmentation of the microstructure.

Hamza, Mohamed H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Inflation at NNLO

Stochastic Inflation is an important framework for understanding the physics of de Sitter space and the phenomenology of inflation. In the leading approximation, this approach results in a Fokker-Planck equation that calculates the probability distribution for a light scalar field as a function of time. Despite its successes, the quantum field theoretic origins and the range of validity for this equation have remained elusive, and establishing a formalism to systematically incorporate higher order effects has been an area of active study. In this paper, we calculate the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) corrections to Stochastic Inflation using Soft de Sitter Effective Theory (SdSET). In this effective description, Stochastic Inflation manifests as the renormalization group evolution of composite operators. The leading impact of non-Gaussian quantum fluctuations appears at NNLO, which is presented here for the first time; we derive the coefficient of this term from a two-loop anomalous dimension calculation within SdSET. We solve the resulting equation to determine the NNLO equilibrium distribution and the low-lying relaxation eigenvalues. In the process, we must match the UV theory onto SdSET at one-loop order, which provides a non-trivial confirmation that the separation into Wilson-coefficient corrections and contributions to initial conditions persists beyond tree level. Furthermore, these results illustrate how the naive factorization of time and momentum integrals in SdSET no longer holds in the presence of logarithmic divergences. It is these effects that ultimately give rise to the renormalization group flow that yields Stochastic Inflation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control for T-S fuzzy stochastic distribution systems subject to sensor and actuator faults

The problem of fault diagnosis (FD) and fault tolerant control (FTC) for a class of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems subject to sensor and actuator faults is discussed in this paper. First, fuzzy logic models are used to approximate the output probability density function (PDF). Next, an adaptive augmented state/fault diagnosis observer is proposed to estimate the system state, sensor and the actuator faults simultaneously. New expected weights based on the sensor fault estimation information and a PI-type fuzzy feedback fault tolerant (FT) controller are designed to compensate the effect of sensor fault and actuator fault simultaneously. When the sensor fault occurs, the expected objective is redesigned to compensate the sensor fault. Meanwhile, the PI controller can compensate the effect of actuator fault, and the output PDF of the system can still track the desired PDF after the fault occurs. Finally, an example of quality distribution control in chemical reaction process is given to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Processes in Fractured Rocks: Some Past Scientific Highlights and Future Research Directions

Abstract Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rocks have been a topic of intense scientific research for more than 30 years. The present paper takes a look into the past and highlights some scientific advances which are of an unusual “out-of-the-box” nature, and then looks forward and discusses possible directions of future research in this interesting field of study. Concerning future research directions, we see a trend from a focus on coupled THM processes in single fractures or a few interacting fractures, to the study of coupled THM behavior in complex fracture network systems where the fractures act collectively giving rise to local stress concentration points and points of large pressure gradients. Three examples of future research directions are presented. First is an effort towards identifying characterizing parameters of a fracture network that play a direct controlling role in major coupled THM phenomena (such as induced seismicity and flow channeling), rather than parameters of stochastic distributions of fractures in the network. The second example of research direction is accounting for the heterogeneity and hierarchy of fractures in a fault or fracture zone which has been associated with major THM events in a number of geo-energy projects. The third example is at the opposite end of the first; here it is recognized that in some cases, the coupled THM processes in fractured rocks may be controlled dominantly by only a few key bridges. Identification, characterization, and evaluation of these key bridges should be one of the important research directions in the coming days.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo approaches for modeling molecular anisotropy in resveratrol crystallization

Stilbenes are a class of organic compounds with broad-ranging pharmaceutical and agricultural applications, which are typically isolated and purified through recrystallization. We are motivated by reducing experimental waste and optimizing yield via developing predictive simulations for processing-dependent crystal morphologies. Using resveratrol as a model stilbene system, we have developed an approach for simulating crystallization with molecular resolution using on-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo. In this work, we highlight modifications to the Stochastic Parallel PARticle Kinetic Simulator (SPPARKS) software package, which were essential to this application. Key enhancements include the incorporation of non-orthogonal cell shapes and monomer anisotropy approximations using bound hard spheres. This new SPPARKS application has been applied to resveratrol with attachment energy libraries obtained from density functional theory, resulting in excellent agreement with experimental morphology prediction.

crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Load Uncertainty Using Real Smart Meter Data

As we get closer to customers in distribution systems, load stochasticity increases. In the past, due to lack of real-time data, the comprehensive knowledge of load behavior was limited, and simplistic assumptions had to be made for distribution system modeling and analysis, especially in the processes of network design and expansion. With the deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), ample real-time smart meter data has become available to utilities. In this paper, using real hourly smart meter data, we have quantified load uncertainty in terms of average, maximum and maximum noncoincident demands on a daily basis, as well as load factor and diversity factor. These uncertainty metrics are examined for individual residential, commercial and industrial customers, as well as distribution transformers serving residential customers. This paper provides a benchmark on load uncertainty quantification for practicing engineers and researchers.

Bu, Fankun↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Assisted HPC Workload Trace Generation for Leadership Scale Storage Systems

Monitoring and analyzing a wide range of I/O activities in an HPC cluster is important in maintaining mission-critical performance in a large-scale, multi-user, parallel storage system. Center-wide I/O traces can provide high-level information and fine-grained activities per application or per user running in the system. Studying such large-scale traces can provide helpful insights into the system. It can be used to develop predictive methods for making predictive decisions, adjusting scheduling policies, or providing decisions for the design of next-generation systems. However, sharing real-world I/O traces to expedite such research efforts leaves a few concerns; i) the cost of sharing the large traces is expensive due to this large size, and ii) privacy concern is an issue.We address such issues by building an end-to-end machine learn- ing (ML) workflow that can generate I/O traces for large-scale HPC applications. We leverage ML based feature selection and gener- ative models for I/O trace generation. The generative models are trained on I/O traces collected by the darshan I/O characterization tool over a period of one year. We present a two-step generation process consisting of two deep-learning models, called the feature generator and the trace generator. The combination of two-step generative models provides robustness by reducing the bias of the model and accounting for the stochastic nature of the I/O traces across different runs of an application. We evaluate the performance of the generative models and show that the two-step model can generate time-series I/O traces with less than 20% root mean square error.

Paul, Arnab↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗