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NASA NTRS2007

Feasibility of Turing-Style Tests for Autonomous Aerial Vehicle "Intelligence"

A new approach is suggested to define and evaluate key metrics as to autonomous aerial vehicle performance. This approach entails the conceptual definition of a "Turing Test" for UAVs. Such a "UAV Turing test" would be conducted by means of mission simulations and/or tailored flight demonstrations of vehicles under the guidance of their autonomous system software. These autonomous vehicle mission simulations and flight demonstrations would also have to be benchmarked against missions "flown" with pilots/human-operators in the loop. In turn, scoring criteria for such testing could be based upon both quantitative mission success metrics (unique to each mission) and by turning to analog "handling quality" metrics similar to the well-known Cooper-Harper pilot ratings used for manned aircraft. Autonomous aerial vehicles would be considered to have successfully passed this "UAV Turing Test" if the aggregate mission success metrics and handling qualities for the autonomous aerial vehicle matched or exceeded the equivalent metrics for missions conducted with pilots/human-operators in the loop. Alternatively, an independent, knowledgeable observer could provide the "UAV Turing Test" ratings of whether a vehicle is autonomous or "piloted." This observer ideally would, in the more sophisticated mission simulations, also have the enhanced capability of being able to override the scripted mission scenario and instigate failure modes and change of flight profile/plans. If a majority of mission tasks are rated as "piloted" by the observer, when in reality the vehicle/simulation is fully- or semi- autonomously controlled, then the vehicle/simulation "passes" the "UAV Turing Test." In this regards, this second "UAV Turing Test" approach is more consistent with Turing s original "imitation game" proposal. The overall feasibility, and important considerations and limitations, of such an approach for judging/evaluating autonomous aerial vehicle "intelligence" will be discussed from a theoretical perspective.

Young, Larry A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, No. 3

Inside - Congressional Hearing Held on Orbital Debris and Space Traffic - United Nations' COPUOS Receives Update on Iridium-Cosmos Collision - MMOD Inspection of the HST WFPC2 Radiator - Reentry Survivability Analysis of GPM Spacecraft - Update on Recent Major Breakup Fragments - Upcoming Meetings - Space Missions and Orbital Box Score

J.-C. Liou↗

NASA NTRS2009

Group Capability Model

The Group Capability Model (GCM) is a software tool that allows an organization, from first line management to senior executive, to monitor and track the health (capability) of various groups in performing their contractual obligations. GCM calculates a Group Capability Index (GCI) by comparing actual head counts, certifications, and/or skills within a group. The model can also be used to simulate the effects of employee usage, training, and attrition on the GCI. A universal tool and common method was required due to the high risk of losing skills necessary to complete the Space Shuttle Program and meet the needs of the Constellation Program. During this transition from one space vehicle to another, the uncertainty among the critical skilled workforce is high and attrition has the potential to be unmanageable. GCM allows managers to establish requirements for their group in the form of head counts, certification requirements, or skills requirements. GCM then calculates a Group Capability Index (GCI), where a score of 1 indicates that the group is at the appropriate level; anything less than 1 indicates a potential for improvement. This shows the health of a group, both currently and over time. GCM accepts as input head count, certification needs, critical needs, competency needs, and competency critical needs. In addition, team members are categorized by years of experience, percentage of contribution, ex-members and their skills, availability, function, and in-work requirements. Outputs are several reports, including actual vs. required head count, actual vs. required certificates, CGI change over time (by month), and more. The program stores historical data for summary and historical reporting, which is done via an Excel spreadsheet that is color-coded to show health statistics at a glance. GCM has provided the Shuttle Ground Processing team with a quantifiable, repeatable approach to assessing and managing the skills in their organization. They now have a common frame of reference across NASA/contractor lines to communicate and mitigate any critical skills concerns.

Olejarski, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2009

Human-System Integration Scorecard Update to VB.Net

The purpose of this project was to create Human-System Integration (HSI) scorecard software, which could be utilized to validate that human factors have been considered early in hardware/system specifications and design. The HSI scorecard is partially based upon the revised Human Rating Requirements (HRR) intended for NASA's Constellation program. This software scorecard will allow for quick appraisal of HSI factors, by using visual aids to highlight low and rapidly changing scores. This project consisted of creating a user-friendly Visual Basic program that could be easily distributed and updated, to and by fellow colleagues. Updating the Microsoft Word version of the HSI scorecard to a computer application will allow for the addition of useful features, improved easy of use, and decreased completion time for user. One significant addition is the ability to create Microsoft Excel graphs automatically from scorecard data, to allow for clear presentation of problematic areas. The purpose of this paper is to describe the rational and benefits of creating the HSI scorecard software, the problems and goals of project, and future work that could be done.

Sanders, Blaze D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather

Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will↗

NASA NTRS2010

Sensory Bias Predicts Postural Stability, Anxiety, and Cognitive Performance in Healthy Adults Walking in Novel Discordant Conditions

We designed a gait training study that presented combinations of visual flow and support surface manipulations to investigate the response of healthy adults to novel discordant sensorimotor conditions. We aimed to determine whether a relationship existed between subjects visual dependence and their scores on a collective measure of anxiety, cognition, and postural stability in a new discordant environment presented at the conclusion of training (Transfer Test). A treadmill was mounted to a motion base platform positioned 2 m behind a large visual screen. Training consisted of three walking sessions, each within a week of the previous visit, that presented four 5-minute exposures to various combinations of support surface and visual scene manipulations, all lateral sinusoids. The conditions were scene translation only, support surface translation only, simultaneous scene and support surface translations in-phase, and simultaneous scene and support surface translations 180 out-of-phase. During the Transfer Test, the trained participants received a 2-minute novel exposure. A visual sinusoidal roll perturbation, with twice the original flow rate, was superimposed on a sinusoidal support surface roll perturbation that was 90 out of phase with the scene. A high correlation existed between normalized torso translation, measured in the scene-only condition at the first visit, and a combined measure of normalized heart rate, stride frequency, and reaction time at the transfer test. Results suggest that visually dependent participants experience decreased postural stability, increased anxiety, and increased reaction times compared to their less visually dependent counterparts when negotiating novel discordant conditions.

Brady, Rachel A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Gait Training Improves Performance in Healthy Adults Exposed to Novel Discordant Conditions

After they return to Earth, astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances that disrupt their ability to walk. We have previously shown that training with a variety of sensorimotor adaptive challenges enhances the capability of adapting to novel sensorimotor conditions. We are currently developing a sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training program designed to facilitate recovery of function after gravitational transitions. The purpose of this study was to determine whether trained subjects could transfer learned skills from one discordant visuo-proprioceptive environment to another. During three sessions, subjects walked at 2.5 km/h on a treadmill mounted on a motion base platform. Ten subjects trained with a combination of lateral treadmill translation and superimposed sinusoidal lateral optic flow that was presented on a large screen positioned in front of them. Ten controls completed the same training schedule while viewing only the forward optic flow with no visual or physical oscillation. Twenty minutes after the final training session, all subjects completed a 2-minute trial with a novel combination of visual and treadmill roll perturbations not previously experienced during the training (Transfer Test). Compared to the untrained group, participants who received SA training showed faster reaction times and, based on a composite score derived from stride frequency, heart rate, and reaction time, an overall enhanced performance. Our results showed that an SA training program can improve overall walking performance when subjects are exposed to novel incongruent sensory environments. This training has application for both enhancing adaptive responses in astronauts and reducing fall and injury risk in the elderly.

Batson, Crystal D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Halm, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Return to Flying Duties Following Centrifuge or Vibration Exposures

Introduction: In an effort to determine the human performance limits for vibration in spacecraft being developed by NASA, astronauts were evaluated during a simulated launch profile in a centrifuge/vibration environment and separate vibration-only simulation. Current USAF and Army standards for return to flight following centrifuge exposures require 12-24 hours to pass before a crewmember may return to flying duties. There are no standards on vibration exposures and return to flying duties. Based on direct observation and provocative neurological testing of the astronauts, a new standard for return to flying duties following centrifuge and/or vibration exposures was established. Methods: 13 astronaut participants were exposed to simulated launch profiles in a + 3.5 Gx bias centrifuge/vibration environment and separately on a vibration table at the NASA-Ames Research Center. Each subject had complete neurological evaluations pre- and post-exposure for the centrifuge/vibration runs with the NASA neurological function rating scale (NFRS). Subjects who participated in the vibration-only exposures had video oculography performed with provocative maneuvers in addition to the NFRS. NFRS evaluations occurred immediately following each exposure and at 1 hour post-run. Astronauts who remained symptomatic at 1 hour had repeat NFRS performed at 1 hour intervals until the crewmember was asymptomatic. Results: Astronauts in the centrifuge/vibration study averaged a 3-5 point increase in NFRS scores immediately following exposure but returned to baseline 3 hours post-run. Subjects exposed to the vibration-only simulation had a 1-3 point increase following exposure and returned to baseline within 1-2 hours. Pre- and post- vibration exposure video oculography did not reveal any persistent ocular findings with provocative testing 1 hour post-exposure. Discussion: Based on direct observations and objective measurement of neurological function in astronauts following simulated launch profiles, asymptomatic individuals are allowed to return to flying duties within 3 hours following centrifuge/vibration and 2 hours after vibration-only exposures.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

International Space Station Air Quality Assessed According to Toxicologically-Grouped Compounds

Scores of compounds are found in the International Space Station (ISS) atmospheric samples that are returned to the Johnson Space Center Toxicology Laboratory for analysis. Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs) are set with the view that each compound is present as if there were no other compounds present. In order to apply SMACs to the interpretation of the analytical data, the toxicologist must employ some method of combining the potential effects of the aggregate of compounds found in the atmospheric samples. The simplest approach is to assume that each quantifiable compound has the potential for some effect in proportion to the applicable SMAC, and then add all the proportions. This simple paradigm disregards the fact that most compounds have potential to adversely affect only a few physiological systems, and their effects would be independent rather than additive. An improved approach to dealing with exposure to mixtures is to add the proportions only for compounds that adversely affect the same physiological system. For example, toxicants that cause respiratory irritation are separated from those that cause neurotoxicity or cardio-toxicity. Herein we analyze ISS air quality data according to toxicological groups with a view that this could be used for understanding any crew symptoms occurring at the time of the sample. In addition, this approach could be useful in post-flight longitudinal surveys where the flight surgeon may need to identify post-flight, follow-up medical studies because of on-orbit exposures that target specific physiological systems.

James, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning

A general-purpose computer program for planning the actions of a spacecraft or other complex system has been augmented by incorporating a subprogram that reasons about uncertainties in such continuous variables as times taken to perform tasks and amounts of resources to be consumed. This subprogram computes parametric probability distributions for time and resource variables on the basis of user-supplied models of actions and resources that they consume. The current system accepts bounded Gaussian distributions over action duration and resource use. The distributions are then combined during planning to determine the net probability distribution of each resource at any time point. In addition to a full combinatoric approach, several approximations for arriving at these combined distributions are available, including maximum-likelihood and pessimistic algorithms. Each such probability distribution can then be integrated to obtain a probability that execution of the plan under consideration would violate any constraints on the resource. The key idea is to use these probabilities of conflict to score potential plans and drive a search toward planning low-risk actions. An output plan provides a balance between the user s specified averseness to risk and other measures of optimality.

Schaffer, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2008

Guide to APA-Based Models

In Robins and Delisi (2008), a linear decay model, a new IGE model by Sarpkaya (2006), and a series of APA-Based models were scored using data from three airports. This report is a guide to the APA-based models.

Robins, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Strategic Risk Assessment

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Derleth, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2007

Analyzing Responses of Chemical Sensor Arrays

NASA is developing a third-generation electronic nose (ENose) capable of continuous monitoring of the International Space Station s cabin atmosphere for specific, harmful airborne contaminants. Previous generations of the ENose have been described in prior NASA Tech Briefs issues. Sensor selection is critical in both (prefabrication) sensor material selection and (post-fabrication) data analysis of the ENose, which detects several analytes that are difficult to detect, or that are at very low concentration ranges. Existing sensor selection approaches usually include limited statistical measures, where selectivity is more important but reliability and sensitivity are not of concern. When reliability and sensitivity can be major limiting factors in detecting target compounds reliably, the existing approach is not able to provide meaningful selection that will actually improve data analysis results. The approach and software reported here consider more statistical measures (factors) than existing approaches for a similar purpose. The result is a more balanced and robust sensor selection from a less than ideal sensor array. The software offers quick, flexible, optimal sensor selection and weighting for a variety of purposes without a time-consuming, iterative search by performing sensor calibrations to a known linear or nonlinear model, evaluating the individual sensor s statistics, scoring the individual sensor s overall performance, finding the best sensor array size to maximize class separation, finding optimal weights for the remaining sensor array, estimating limits of detection for the target compounds, evaluating fingerprint distance between group pairs, and finding the best event-detecting sensors.

Zhou, Hanying↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Chess-Like Game for Teaching Engineering Students to Solve Large System of Simultaneous Linear Equations

Solving large (and sparse) system of simultaneous linear equations has been (and continues to be) a major challenging problem for many real-world engineering/science applications [1-2]. For many practical/large-scale problems, the sparse, Symmetrical and Positive Definite (SPD) system of linear equations can be conveniently represented in matrix notation as [A] {x} = {b} , where the square coefficient matrix [A] and the Right-Hand-Side (RHS) vector {b} are known. The unknown solution vector {x} can be efficiently solved by the following step-by-step procedures [1-2]: Reordering phase, Matrix Factorization phase, Forward solution phase, and Backward solution phase. In this research work, a Game-Based Learning (GBL) approach has been developed to help engineering students to understand crucial details about matrix reordering and factorization phases. A "chess-like" game has been developed and can be played by either a single player, or two players. Through this "chess-like" open-ended game, the players/learners will not only understand the key concepts involved in reordering algorithms (based on existing algorithms), but also have the opportunities to "discover new algorithms" which are better than existing algorithms. Implementing the proposed "chess-like" game for matrix reordering and factorization phases can be enhanced by FLASH [3] computer environments, where computer simulation with animated human voice, sound effects, visual/graphical/colorful displays of matrix tables, score (or monetary) awards for the best game players, etc. can all be exploited. Preliminary demonstrations of the developed GBL approach can be viewed by anyone who has access to the internet web-site [4]!

Nguyen, Duc T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Feasibility Study of a Lunar Analog Bed Rest Model

The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of using a 9.5deg head-up tilt bed rest model to simulate the effects of the 1/6 g load to the human body that exists on the lunar surface. The lunar analog bed rest model utilized a modified hospital bed. The modifications included mounting the mattress on a sled that rolled on bearings to provide freedom of movement. The weight of the sled was off-loaded using a counterweight system to insure that 1/6 body weight was applied along the long axis (z-axis) of the body. Force was verified through use of a force plate mounted at the foot of the bed. A seating assembly was added to the bed to permit periods of sitting. Subjects alternated between standing and sitting positions throughout the day. A total of 35% of the day was spent in the standing position and 65% was spent sitting. In an effort to achieve physiologic fluid shifts expected for a 1/6 G environment, subjects wore compression stockings and performed unloaded foot and ankle exercises. Eight subjects (3 females and 5 males) participated in this study. Subjects spent 13 days in the pre-bed rest phase, 6 days in bed rest and 3 days post bed rest. Subjects consumed a standardized diet throughout the study. To determine feasibility, measures of subject comfort, force and plasma volume were collected. Subject comfort was assessed using a Likert scale. Subjects were asked to assess level of comfort (0-100) for 11 body regions and provide an overall rating. Results indicated minimal to no discomfort as most subjects reported scores of zero. Force measures were performed for each standing position and were validated against subject s calculated 1/6 body weight (r(sup 2) = 0.993). The carbon monoxide rebreathing technique was used to assess plasma volume during pre-bed rest and on the last day of bed rest. Plasma volume results indicated a significant decrease (p = 0.001) from pre to post bed rest values. Subjects lost on average 8.3% (sd = 6.1%) during the bed rest phase. Findings from this feasibility study indicated that 1) the lunar analog bed rest model was well tolerated by subjects; 2) a 1/6 load was accurately applied to the z-axis of the body; and 3) plasma volume losses could be achieved in a head-up tilt bed rest model. Future work to refine this model should include extending the duration of bed rest to mimic longer mission durations and a comprehensive assessment of the physiological responses to this bed rest analog.

Cromwell, Ronita L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

International Space Station Air Quality Assessed According to Toxicologically-Grouped Compounds

Scores of compounds are found in the International Space Station (ISS) atmospheric samples that are returned to the Johnson Space Center Toxicology Laboratory for analysis. Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs) are set with the view that each compound is present as if there were no other compounds present. In order to apply SMACs to the interpretation of the analytical data, the toxicologist must employ some method of combining the potential effects of the aggregate of compounds found in the atmospheric samples. The simplest approach is to assume that each quantifiable compound has the potential for some effect in proportion to the applicable SMAC, and then add all the proportions. This simple paradigm disregards the fact that most compounds have potential to adversely affect only a few physiological systems, and their effects would be independent rather than additive. An improved approach to dealing with exposure to mixtures is to add the proportions only for compounds that adversely affect the same physiological system. For example, toxicants that cause respiratory irritation are separated from those that cause neurotoxicity or cardio-toxicity. Herein we analyze ISS air quality data according to toxicological groups with a view that this could be used for understanding any crew symptoms occurring at the time of the sample acquisition. In addition, this approach could be useful in post-flight longitudinal surveys where the flight surgeon may need to identify post-flight, follow-up medical studies because of on-orbit exposures that target specific physiological systems.

James, John T.↗