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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Curious Case of PHL 293B: A Long-lived Transient in a Metal-poor Blue Compact Dwarf Galaxy

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy’s unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with ~800 km s -1 blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of ~0.1 mag in the g band offset by 100 ± 21 pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or nonterminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Furthermore, our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Markovian transport processes in a heterogeneous, variably saturated watershed: A multi-domain spatial Markov model

Transport processes in watersheds remain challenging to describe accurately with upscaled models because of their intricate complexities at multiple scales that can lead to multi-modal, non-Fickian breakthrough curves. One of the recent advances in solute transport modeling has been the Lagrangian spatial Markov model (SMM), which describes transport using velocity increments and models the correlated transitions between them. The method has been applied previously to saturated porous media and fractured media, but these successful applications suggest it may be useful for describing watershed scale processes as well. An existing, 3-D, heterogeneous variably saturated model of a headwaters catchment and classical random walk particle tracking were used to generate a forward simulation and the resulting transport was analyzed with a spatial Markov framework. Existing SMM methods were used to analyze the transport paths through the complex, unconfined domain and we found that the vadose zone plays an important role in the correlation structure. As such, a new kind of SMM is proposed, termed a multi-domain SMM (MD-SMM), that uses separate correlation models for auto-transitions in the vadose zone and the saturated zone, and for the cross-transitions between them. The MD-SMM improves representation of transport relative to the single domain model and can naturally delineate times when a particle is in the vadose zone or the saturated zone, adding an additional degree of realism to the upscaled model. Lastly, we show that the transition probability matrix for transport in the saturated portion of this unconfined system is approximately Markovian, which is an important validation of the proposed framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning predictions for local electronic properties of disordered correlated electron systems

We present a scalable machine learning (ML) model to predict local electronic properties such as on-site electron number and double occupation for disordered correlated electron systems. Our approach is based on the locality principle, or the nearsightedness nature, of many-electron systems, which means local electronic properties depend mainly on the immediate environment. A ML model is developed to encode this complex dependence of local quantities on the neighborhood. We demonstrate our approach using the square-lattice Anderson-Hubbard model, which is a paradigmatic system for studying the interplay between Mott transition and Anderson localization. We develop a lattice descriptor based on the group-theoretical method to represent the on-site random potentials within a finite region. The resultant feature variables are used as input to a multilayer fully connected neural network, which is trained from data sets of variational Monte Carlo (VMC) simulations on small systems. We show that the ML predictions agree reasonably well with the VMC data. Our work underscores the promising potential of ML methods for multiscale modeling of correlated electron systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques

CRAFT (Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques) CRAFT is a Python-based project for processing, analyzing, and modeling atmospheric or environmental data. It uses machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest Regression, to create emulators for various environmental variables such as gross primary production and soil water content. It then uses these emulators to robustly test the parameter space of mechanistic models to provide posterior estimations of the free parameters.

Robins, Zachary↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Latent-Variable Formulation of the Poisson Canonical Polyadic Tensor Model: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Fisher Information

We establish parameter inference for the Poisson canonical polyadic (PCP) tensor model through a latent-variable formulation. Our approach exploits the observation that any random PCP tensor can be derived by marginalizing an unobservable random tensor of one dimension larger. The loglikelihood of this larger dimensional tensor, referred to as the “complete” loglikelihood, is comprised of multiple rank one PCP loglikelihoods. Using this methodology, we first derive maximum likelihood estimators for the PCP model and demonstrate that several existing algorithms for fitting non-negative matrix and tensor factorizations are Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Next, we derive the observed and expected Fisher information matrices for the PCP model. The Fisher information provides us crucial insights into the well-posedness of the tensor model, such as the role that tensor rank plays in identifiability and indeterminacy. For the special case of rank one PCP models, we demonstrate that these results are greatly simplified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Comparative analysis of the designs and implementation of vehicles based on reactive propulsion proposed during the nineteenth and beginning of the twentieth centuries

Examination of the presently known historical scientific literature related to the problem of reactive flight indicates that considerable attention had already been given to the idea of reactive propulsion in the nineteenth century; about thirty designs for reaction flying vehicles were proposed during this period. However, the authors of a majority of the designs limited themselves only to a presentation of a diagram of the engine or an account of the principle of its operation, giving neither plans for its structural development nor precise calculations of the amount of energy required for accomplishing reaction flight. None of these authors considered the reaction flying vehicle as an object of variable mass, their choice of energy sources was extremely random, and the theory of the flight of reaction flying vehicles remained completely undeveloped. Early rocket designs of Nezhdanovsky, Ganswindt, Goddard, Tsiolkovsky, and others are examined and the evolution of liquid-propellant rocket engines, solid-propellant rocket engines, and jet aircraft engines is reviewed.

Sokolskiy, V. N.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The simulated depth history of dust grains in the lunar regolith

Trajectories giving the individual depth variations of lunar dust grains with time are randomly generated by a Monte Carlo code, where the variables are the mass and speed distribution of meteorites at the lunar surface and the geometrical shape of impact craters. A statistical analysis of a great number of such trajectories is then used to define the 'average' depth history of lunar dust grains for two grain radii: 1 and 50 microns. This yields: (1) estimates for time constants involved during the dynamic evolution of the regolith, (2) a model for the layering of the regolith, and (3) a better understanding of the basic dust-grain mechanisms responsible for the formation of the most mature lunar soil samples. The validity of various soil models proposed for the dynamic evolution of the regolith is discussed in terms of experimental constraints on the models.

Duraud, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The role of data management in discipline-independent data visualization

The common data format (CDF) is described in terms of its support applications for the database management of visualization systems. The CDF is a self-describing data abstraction technique for the storage and manipulation of multidimensional data that are based on block structures. The discipline-independent approach is designed to manage, manipulate, archive, display, and analyze data, and can be applied to heterogeneous equipment communicating different data structures over networks. An improved CDF version incorporates a hyperplane access allowing random aggregate access to subdimensional blocks within a multidimensional variable. The visualization pipeline is also discussed, which controls the flow of data and permits the visualization of different classes of data representation techniques. The system is found to accommodate a large variety of scientific data structures and large disk-based data sets.

Treinish, Lloyd A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Fuzzy sets predict flexural strength and density of silicon nitride ceramics

In this work, we utilize fuzzy sets theory to evaluate and make predictions of flexural strength and density of NASA 6Y silicon nitride ceramic. Processing variables of milling time, sintering time, and sintering nitrogen pressure are used as an input to the fuzzy system. Flexural strength and density are the output parameters of the system. Data from 273 Si3N4 modulus of rupture bars tested at room temperature and 135 bars tested at 1370 C are used in this study. Generalized mean operator and Hamming distance are utilized to build the fuzzy predictive model. The maximum test error for density does not exceed 3.3 percent, and for flexural strength 7.1 percent, as compared with the errors of 1.72 percent and 11.34 percent obtained by using neural networks, respectively. These results demonstrate that fuzzy sets theory can be incorporated into the process of designing materials, such as ceramics, especially for assessing more complex relationships between the processing variables and parameters, like strength, which are governed by randomness of manufacturing processes.

Cios, Krzysztof J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A petabyte size electronic library using the N-Gram memory engine

A model library containing petabytes of data is proposed by Triada, Ltd., Ann Arbor, Michigan. The library uses the newly patented N-Gram Memory Engine (Neurex), for storage, compression, and retrieval. Neurex splits data into two parts: a hierarchical network of associative memories that store 'information' from data and a permutation operator that preserves sequence. Neurex is expected to offer four advantages in mass storage systems. Neurex representations are dense, fully reversible, hence less expensive to store. Neurex becomes exponentially more stable with increasing data flow; thus its contents and the inverting algorithm may be mass produced for low cost distribution. Only a small permutation operator would be recalled from the library to recover data. Neurex may be enhanced to recall patterns using a partial pattern. Neurex nodes are measures of their pattern. Researchers might use nodes in statistical models to avoid costly sorting and counting procedures. Neurex subsumes a theory of learning and memory that the author believes extends information theory. Its first axiom is a symmetry principle: learning creates memory and memory evidences learning. The theory treats an information store that evolves from a null state to stationarity. A Neurex extracts information data without a priori knowledge; i.e., unlike neural networks, neither feedback nor training is required. The model consists of an energetically conservative field of uniformly distributed events with variable spatial and temporal scale, and an observer walking randomly through this field. A bank of band limited transducers (an 'eye'), each transducer in a bank being tuned to a sub-band, outputs signals upon registering events. Output signals are 'observed' by another transducer bank (a mid-brain), except the band limit of the second bank is narrower than the band limit of the first bank. The banks are arrayed as n 'levels' or 'time domains, td.' The banks are the hierarchical network (a cortex) and transducers are (associative) memories. A model Neurex was built and studied. Data were 50 MB to 10 GB samples of text, data base, and images: black/white, grey scale, and high resolution in several spectral bands. Memories at td, S(m(sub td)), were plotted against outputs of memories at td-1. S(m(sub td)) was Boltzman distributed, and memory frequencies exhibited self-organized criticality (SOC); i.e., 'l/f(sup beta)' after long exposures to data. Whereas output signals from level n may be encoded with B(sub output) = O(-log(2)f(sup beta)) bits, and input data encoded with B(sub input) = O((S(td)/S(td-1))(sup n)), B(sup output)/B(sub input) is much less than 1 always, the Neurex determines a canonical code for data and it is a lossless data compressor. Further tests are underway to confirm these results with more data types and larger samples.

Bugajski, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effect of Random Thermal Spikes on Stirling Convertor Heater Head Reliability

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed to support future NASA exploration missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr and beyond. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency developmental Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures (up to 650 C), stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. Additionally, assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled heater head, the variation in the manufactured thickness, variation in control temperature, and variation in pressure on the durability and reliability were performed. However, it is possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of random temperature spikes (excursions) of short duration. These incidences could occur randomly with random magnitude and duration during the desired mission life. These rare incidences could affect the creep strain rate and therefore the life. The paper accounts for these uncertainties and includes the effect of such rare incidences, random in nature, on the reliability. The sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Furthermore, the quantified reliability is being verified with test data from the accelerated benchmark tests being conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effect of Random Thermal Spikes on Stirling Convertor Heater Head Reliability

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed to support future NASA exploration missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr and beyond. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency developmental Stirling power converter has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures (up to 650 C), stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. Additionally assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled heater head, the variation in the manufactured thickness, variation in control temperature, and variation in pressure on the durability and reliability were performed. However, it is possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of random temperature spikes (excursions) of short duration. These incidences could occur randomly with random magnitude and duration during the desired mission life. These rare incidences could affect the creep strain rate and therefore the life. The paper accounts for these uncertainties and includes the effect of such rare incidences, random in nature, on the reliability. The sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Furthermore, the quantified reliability is being verified with test data from the accelerated benchmark tests being conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Quantum-Inspired Maximizer

A report discusses an algorithm for a new kind of dynamics based on a quantum- classical hybrid-quantum-inspired maximizer. The model is represented by a modified Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced by different, specially chosen 'computational' potential. As a result, the dynamics attains both quantum and classical properties: it preserves superposition and entanglement of random solutions, while allowing one to measure its state variables, using classical methods. Such optimal combination of characteristics is a perfect match for quantum-inspired computing. As an application, an algorithm for global maximum of an arbitrary integrable function is proposed. The idea of the proposed algorithm is very simple: based upon the Quantum-inspired Maximizer (QIM), introduce a positive function to be maximized as the probability density to which the solution is attracted. Then the larger value of this function will have the higher probability to appear. Special attention is paid to simulation of integer programming and NP-complete problems. It is demonstrated that the problem of global maximum of an integrable function can be found in polynomial time by using the proposed quantum- classical hybrid. The result is extended to a constrained maximum with applications to integer programming and TSP (Traveling Salesman Problem).

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2025

COBRA:COMPUTED-TOMOGRAPHY BASED RANDOM-FIELD APPROXIMATION

SF-25-115 COBRA (COmputed-tomography Based Random-field Approximation) is a Python application for generating statistically equivalent random fields from CT-scan imagery. It leverages Karhunen–Loève expansions to model microstructural variability, enabling users to: Preprocess CT scans (filtering and Gaussian transformation); Fit covariance kernels fromempirical data; Solve eigenproblems to obtain KL modes; Sample random fields onsistent with fitted statistics; Postprocess samples back into the physical domain.

Hu, Tianchen↗