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DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Actinides and Neutron Scattering at the Spallation Neutron Source and High Flux Isotope Reactor

The importance of actinides for science, technology, and medicine is widely recognized and does not require a lengthy introduction. However, the fundamental understanding of actinides and their chemical and physical properties lags behind the knowledge of most other elements in the periodic table. Most actinides (89 ≤ Z ≤ 103) are man-made and were produced in particle accelerators or nuclear reactors in the second half of the 20th century. Although trends in bonding and electronic structure are well characterized and documented across the periodic table, fundamental questions remain regarding the chemistry and physics of the actinides. This lack of knowledge is largely because most isotopes of actinides are intensely radioactive, which greatly increases the difficultly in handling them.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Imaging local luminescence variations in CdSe 0.1 Te 0.9 thin films grown by the colossal grain growth process

Clear visualization and understanding of luminescence properties of grain interiors and grain boundaries in polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic materials are crucial to achieving high-performance solar cells. Luminescence-based measurements, for example, reveal sub-bandgap energetic disorder or impurity-related radiative transitions in these materials, and when performed in the absolute scale, they can show the extent of voltage-limiting non-radiative recombination. Here we use a hyperspectral imaging technique to investigate inter- and intra-grain photoluminescence variations in polycrystalline CdSe 0.1 Te 0.9 films made by the colossal grain growth process. We observe that grain boundaries show higher luminescence than grain interiors for all energies below the bandgap energy. Multiple distinct sub-bandgap defect transitions are detected and determined to be related to donor-acceptor pair impurities. A comparison of the excitation-intensity-dependent photoluminescence at the grain boundaries with grain interiors suggests that carrier concentration is higher at grain boundaries. This finding is supported by photoemission electron microscopy imaging of the films, showing approximately 70 meV upward energy shift in the band structure at the grain boundaries. Finally, we investigate a dramatic thermal quenching behavior related to the donor-acceptor pairs luminescence over a temperature range and use a rate-equation model to attribute it to the sudden redirection of the radiative recombination channels to non-radiative channels with increasing temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reconstruction of x-ray free-electron laser pulse duration and energy chirp from spectral intensity fluctuations

Not Available

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Challenges in simulating ground interacting nuclear explosions

This paper summarizes recent above-ground nuclear explosion simulations as part of a broader effort to better characterize conditions within a fireball that may influence the chemical evolution of bomb materials and other materials entrained from the local explosion environment. A critical component of this work is validation against historic footage of atmospheric testing, requiring that we understand how the frequency-dependent sensitivity of the utilized film footage influences data captured in such images. We focus first on the early physics of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere before discussing some of the technical challenges we seek to capture in late-time models that include more complex emplacement conditions and subsurface features. We discuss required physics packages (compressible hydrodynamics, radiation transport, as well as necessary ancillary tables such as equations of state (EOS) and opacities). Additionally, we note reasonable “shortcuts” one may make and their limitations, e.g., using ideal gas EOS, replacing spectrally resolved radiation with spectrally averaged radiation, and exchanging deterministic transport with diffusion. We then discuss an approach to achieving an equilibrated initial stress state for problems where buoyancy and subsurface lithostatic stress are important. Our methodology is presented in the context of LLNL’s ALE3D multiphysics code but may readily be implemented in other codes. In this paper, we start with a description of the challenges of NUDET simulations, followed by a presentation of the simulated intensity (flux) as it would appear on an analysis of the Dixie test. We then progressively introduce additional complexity in subsequent sections (near-surface burst and gravity initialization) before concluding.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Simultaneous Dropout of Energetic Electrons and Protons by Magnetopause Shadowing

Abstract Magnetopause shadowing (MPS) effect could drive a concurrent dropout of radiation belt electrons and ring current protons. However, its relative role in the dropout of both plasma populations has not been well quantified. In this work, we study the simultaneous dropout of MeV electrons and 100s keV protons during an intense geomagnetic storm in May 2017. A radial diffusion model with an event‐specific last closed drift shell is used to simulate the MPS loss of both populations. The model well captures the fast shadowing loss of both populations at L * > 4.6, while the loss at L * < 4.6, possibly due to the electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering, is not captured. The observed butterfly pitch angle distributions of electron fluxes in the initial loss phase are well reproduced by the model. The initial proton losses at low pitch angles are underestimated, potentially also contributed by other mechanisms such as field line curvature scattering.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Valence shell photoelectron angular distributions and vibrationally resolved spectra of imidazole: A combined experimental–theoretical study

Linearly polarized synchrotron radiation has been used to record polarization dependent valence shell photoelectron spectra of imidazole in the photon energy range 21–100 eV. These have allowed the photoelectron angular distributions, as characterized by the anisotropy parameter β, and the electronic state intensity branching ratios to be determined. Complementing these experimental data, theoretical photoionization partial cross sections and β-parameters have been calculated for the outer valence shell orbitals. The assignment of the structure appearing in the experimental photoelectron spectra has been guided by vertical ionization energies and spectral intensities calculated by various theoretical methods that incorporate electron correlation and orbital relaxation. Strong orbital relaxation effects have been found for the 15a', nitrogen lone-pair orbital. The calculations also predict that configuration mixing leads to the formation of several low-lying satellite states. The vibrational structure associated with ionization out of a particular orbital has been simulated within the Franck–Condon model using harmonic vibrational modes. The adiabatic approximation appears to be valid for the X 2A" state, with the β-parameter for this state being independent of the level of vibrational excitation. However, for all the other outer valence ionic states, a disparity occurs between the observed and the simulated vibrational structure, and the measured β-parameters are at variance with the behavior expected at the level of the Franck–Condon approximation. Furthermore, these inconsistencies suggest that the excited electronic states may be interacting vibronically such that the nuclear dynamics occur over coupled potential energy surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Use of diamond sensors for a high-flux, high-rate X-ray pass-through diagnostic

X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) deliver pulses of coherent X-rays on the femtosecond time scale, with potentially high repetition rates. While XFELs provide high peak intensities, both the intensity and the centroid of the beam fluctuate strongly on a pulse-to-pulse basis, motivating high-rate beam diagnostics that operate over a large dynamic range. The fast drift velocity, low X-ray absorption and high radiation tolerance properties of chemical vapour deposition diamonds make these crystals a promising candidate material for developing a fast (multi-GHz) pass-through diagnostic for the next generation of XFELs. A new approach to the design of a diamond sensor signal path is presented, along with associated characterization studies performed in the XPP endstation of the LINAC Coherent Light Source (LCLS) at SLAC. Qualitative charge collection profiles (collected charge versus time) are presented and compared with those from a commercially available detector. Quantitative results on the charge collection efficiency and signal collection times are presented over a range of approximately four orders of magnitude in the generated electron–hole plasma density.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRACER Radar b1 Data Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRACER Radar b1 Data Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility deployed the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) to Houston, Texas for the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign. The TRACER campaign was conducted from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022, with an intensive operational period (IOP) from June 1 to September 30, 2022. To investigate the life cycles of convective cells in the polluted and humid urban environment of Houston, ARM deployed cloud and precipitation radars, including the C-band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR2), the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (SACR), and the Ka-band ARM Zenith cloud Radar (KAZR), as shown in Figure 1. This report presents an analysis of radar data quality, hardware calibrations, and radar data corrections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An ASME-Compliant Helium-4 Evaporation Refrigerator for the SpinQuest Experiment

This paper presents the design, safety basis, and commissioning results of a 1 K liquid helium-4 (4He) evaporation refrigerator developed for the Fermilab SpinQuest Experiment (E1039). The system represents the first high power helium evaporation refrigerator operated in a fixed target scattering experiment at Fermilab and was engineered to comply with the Fermilab ES&H Manual (FESHM) requirements governing pressure vessels, piping, cryogenic systems, and vacuum vessels. The design is mapped to ASME B31.3 (Process Piping) and the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) for pressure boundary integrity and overpressure protection, with documented compliance to FESHM Chapters 5031 (Pressure Vessels), 5031.1 (Piping Systems), and 5033 (Vacuum Vessels). This work documents the methodology used to reach compliance and approval for the 4He evaporation refrigerator at Fermilab which the field lacks. Design considerations specific to the high radiation target-cave environment including remotely located instrumentation approximately 20 m from the cryostat are summarized, together with the relief-system sizing methodology used to accommodate transient heat loads from dynamic nuclear polarization microwaves and the high-intensity proton beam. Commissioning data from July 2024 confirms that the system satisfies all thermal performance and safety objectives.

Roberts, Jordan D. [Virginia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Impacts of Single-Scattering and Microphysical Properties of Ice Particles Smaller Than 100 µm on the Bulk Radiative Properties of Tropical Cirrus

There are large uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of ice particles whose size are less than ~100 µm. Insufficient resolutions of the most advanced cloud probes (e.g., cloud particle imager) cannot resolve the micrometer-scale morphologies of small ice particles. Further, the shattering of large ice particles on probes’ inlets or tips causes uncertainties in the measurement of the concentrations of small ice particles. These uncertainties have large impacts on the single-scattering and microphysical properties of small ice particles that are utilized to quantify the bulk radiative properties of cirrus. In this study, the impacts of uncertainties in the morphologies and concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties of tropical cirrus were calculated using measurements acquired during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment. Five different models (i.e., budding Buckyball, Chebyshev particle, droxtal, Gaussian random sphere, and sphere) that represent the shapes of small ice particles were used to calculate the single-scattering properties. The bulk radiative properties, average phase-function ($\overline{P_{11}}$), and average asymmetry parameter ($\overline{g}$) were computed by combining the measured size/habit distributions and the calculated single-scattering properties of ice particles. The impacts of the selection of varying morphologies of small particles on the bulk radiative properties were quantified. For these calculations, the possible range of the concentrations of small ice particles which depend on the degree of shattered large particles were also used. The impacts of varying the single-scattering properties of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were the largest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C), while they were the smallest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C). The impacts of uncertainties in the concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were largest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C), whereas they were smallest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C). The effect of shattering was maximum in the lower parts of cirrus, whilst it was minimum in the upper parts of cirrus. The combined impacts of uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of small ice particles revealed variations of up to 11.2% (127.1%; 67.3%) of the integrated intensity in the forward (sideward; backward) angles in $\overline{P_{11}}$ and a corresponding change in $\overline{g}$ by up to 12.61%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lasing Below 170 nm Using an Oscillator FEL

The short wavelength operation of free-electron laser (FEL) oscillators is limited by the availability of high-reflectivity, thermally stable, and radiation-resistant FEL mirrors in the VUV wavelength. We report our recent work to extend the shortest lasing wavelength of the oscillator FEL to 168.6 nm using a storage ring FEL. This progress has been made possible by developing a new FEL configuration with substantially reduced undulator harmonic radiation on the FEL mirror, a thermally stable FEL optical cavity, and a new type of high-reflectivity fluoride-based multilayer coating with a protective capping layer. Using these fluoride-based mirrors, we have demonstrated storage ring FEL lasing from 168.6 to 179.7 nm with excellent beam stability. Employing this VUV FEL in Compton scattering, we have produced the first 120 MeV gamma rays at the High Intensity Gamma-ray Source (HIGS). Furthermore, operating the HIGS in this new high-energy region will create many new opportunities for photonuclear physics research, in particular, the low-energy QCD research.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report on branching ratios for 111 Ag

Our understanding on the distribution of fragment masses following fission, or fission yields is largely impacted by the quality of nuclear data. One of the most straightforward and reliable ways to determine the number of fissions that occurred in a chain reaction is done via detection of the characteristic γ-rays emitted during the β decay of the fission product. These γ rays are emitted in only a fraction of the decays, and this fraction (the γ-ray intensities) must be known accurately to determine the total number of fissions. Many long-lived fission products, such as 111 Ag, play an important role in science-based stockpile stewardship and nuclear forensics. The γ-ray intensities from the decay of 111 Ag are known to only 5%, leading to a 5% uncertainty in fission-chain yield. This work aims to improve the precision of these γ-ray intensities for the most intense emissions following the decay of 111 Ag, as seen in Figure 1.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Terrestrial Gamma‐Ray Flash Following Intense Negative Return Stroke Observed With BIMAP‐3D

We report ground-based observations of a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) associated with a strong negative cloud-to-ground lightning strike (-CG) which occurred near Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, USA. Gamma photons were detected by the Terrestrial High-energy Observations of Radiation (THOR) instrument, developed at the University of California, Santa Cruz, which has been hosted at LANL since 2022. Simultaneous measurements were also made with the 3-Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization (BIMAP-3D) system, which includes 3D lightning mapping, two fast antennas, and an additional plastic scintillator. Additional field change waveforms were obtained from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). The lightning initiated about 1 km above the ground, leading to a powerful -CG with an ENTLN peak current of −237 kA and bipolar field change matching the recently described “energetic compact stroke” (ECS) shape. The TGF was then observed ∼35 µs after the start of the return stroke. We also observe an electric field pulse likely produced by the TGF either in isolation or by coupling to the lightning channel. Based on modeling of the radiated electric field and photon propagation through the atmosphere we infer that the TGF source was on the order of 1⁢0 17 photons. This TGF and associated lightning are extremely similar to some recently reported ECS TGFs in coastal Japan in winter, but we report the first observation of this phenomenon outside of Japan in a different climate, terrain, and season.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Collisional excitation of C2H− by H2: New interaction potential and scattering calculations

Interstellar anions play an important role in astrochemistry as being tracers of the physical and chemical conditions in cold molecular clouds and circumstellar gas. The local thermodynamic equilibrium is generally not fulfilled in media where anions are detected and radiative and collisional data are required to model the observed lines. The C2H− anion has not yet been detected in the interstellar medium; however, collisional data could be used for non-LTE models that would help in identifying the most intense lines. For this purpose, we have computed the first 4D potential energy surface (PES) of the C2H−–H2 complex using an explicitly correlated coupled-cluster approach. The PES is characterized by a single deep minimum with a well-depth of 924.96 cm−1. From this interaction potential, we derived excitation cross sections and rate coefficients of C2H− induced by collisions with para- and ortho-H2. The results obtained for collisions with para-H2 are compared to previous calculations performed using a 2D-PES obtained from an average over H2 rotations.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generation of a quasi-static magnetic field by a circularly polarised laser pulse due to tunnelling gas ionisation

We present a theoretical model of the quasi-static magnetic field generation in a laser channel, which is formed behind the front of a short laser pulse that ionises a gas. The generation of a magnetic field is caused by the appearance of the electron pressure anisotropy during tunnelling ionisation of atoms. In the considered case of subrelativistic laser light intensities, the generated magnetic field can reach ∼1 MG with an energy transformation ratio of about 1 %, which paves the way for identifying the proposed mechanism when use is made of a wide class of ultrashort pulse lasers. (interaction of laser radiation with matter. laser plasma)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗