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NASA NTRS2007

Ground Clutter as a Monitor of Radar Stability at Kwajalein,RMI

There are many applications in which the absolute and day-to-day calibration of radar sensitivity is necessary. This is particularly so in the case of quantitative radar measurements of precipitation. While absolute calibrations can be done periodically using solar radiation, variations that occur between such absolute checks are required to maintain the accuracy of the data. The authors have developed a method for h s purpose using the radar on Kwajalein Atoll, which has been used to provide a baseline calibration for control of measurements of rainfall made by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 0T.he method u ses echoes from a multiplicity of ground targets. The average clutter echoes at the lowest elevation scan have been found to be remarkably stable from hour to hour, day to day, and month to month within better than +1 dB. They vary significantly only after either deliberate system modifications, equipment failure or unknown causes. A cumulative probability distribution of echo reflectivities (Ze in dBZ) is obtained on a daily basis. This CDF includes both the precipitation and clutter echoes. Because the precipitation echoes at Kwajalein rarely exceed 45 dBZ, selecting an upper percentile of the CDF associated with intense clutter reflectivities permits monitoring of radar stability. The reflectivity level at which the CDF attains 95% is our reference. Daily measurements of the CDFs have been made since August 1999 and have been used to correct the 7 M years of measurements and thus enhance the integrity of the global record of precipitation observed by TRMM. The method also has potential applicability to other pound radar sites.

Silberstein, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Understanding Local Structure Globally in Earth Science Remote Sensing Data Sets

Empirical probability distributions derived from the data are the signatures of physical processes generating the data. Distributions defined on different space-time windows can be compared and differences or changes can be attributed to physical processes. This presentation discusses on ways to reduce remote sensing data in a way that preserves information, focusing on the rate-distortion theory and using the entropy-constrained vector quantization algorithm.

massive data sets↗
NASA NTRS2007

Extinction-to-Backscatter Ratios of Lofted Aerosol Layers Observed During the First Three Months of CALIPSO Measurements

Case studies from the first three months of the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Spaceborne Observations (CALIPSO) measurements of lofted aerosol layers are analyzed using transmittance [Young, 1995] and two-wavelength algorithms [Vaughan et al., 2004] to determine the aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratios at 532 and 1064 nm. The transmittance method requires clear air below the layer so that the transmittance through the layer can be determined. Suitable scenes are selected from the browse images and clear air below features is identified by low 532 nm backscatter signal and confirmed by low depolarization and color ratios. The transmittance and two-wavelength techniques are applied to a number of lofted layers and the extinction-to-backscatter ratios are compared with values obtained from the CALIPSO aerosol models [Omar et al., 2004]. The results obtained from these studies are used to adjust the aerosol models and develop observations based extinction-to-backscatter ratio look-up tables and phase functions. Values obtained by these techniques are compared to Sa determinations using other independent methods with a goal of developing probability distribution functions of aerosol type-specific extinction to backscatter ratios. In particular, the results are compared to values determined directly by the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) during the CALIPSO CloudSat Validation Experiments (CCVEX) and Sa determined by the application of the two-wavelength lidar Constrained Ratio Aerosol Model-fit (CRAM) retrieval approach [Cattrall et al., 2005; Reagan et al., 2004] to the HSRL data. The results are also compared to values derived using the empirical relationship between the multiple-scattering fraction and the linear depolarization ratio by using Monte Carlo simulations of water clouds [Hu et al., 2006].

Omar, Ali H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2006

CFDP Performance over Weather-dependent Ka-band Channel

This study presents an analysis of the delay performance of the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) over weather-dependent Ka-band channel. The Ka-band channel condition is determined by the strength of the atmospheric noise temperature, which is weather dependent. Noise temperature data collected from the Deep Space Network (DSN) Madrid site is used to characterize the correlations between good and bad channel states in a two-state Markov model. Specifically, the probability distribution of file delivery latency using the CFDP deferred Negative Acknowledgement (NAK) mode is derived and quantified. Deep space communication scenarios with different file sizes and bit error rates (BERs) are studied and compared. Furthermore, we also examine the sensitivity of our analysis with respect to different data sampling methods. Our analysis shows that while the weather-dependent channel only results in fairly small increases in the average number of CFDP retransmissions required, the maximum number of transmissions required to complete 99 percentile, on the other hand, is significantly larger for the weather-dependent channel due to the significant correlation of poor weather states.

deep space communications↗
NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Evaporation of Drops of Different Kerosenes

A mathematical model describes the evaporation of drops of a hydrocarbon liquid composed of as many as hundreds of chemical species. The model is intended especially for application to any of several types of kerosenes commonly used as fuels. The concept of continuous thermodynamics, according to which the chemical composition of the evaporating multicomponent liquid is described by use of a probability distribution function (PDF). However, the present model is more generally applicable than is its immediate predecessor.

Bellan, Josette↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Probabilistic Wake Vortex Lateral Transport Model Using Data from SFO and DEN

In a previous report, we considered the behavior of the lateral position of vortices as a function of time after vortex formation for Out of Ground Effects (OGE) data for aircraft landing at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). We quantified the spread in lateral position as a function of time and examined how predictable lateral position is under a variety of assumptions. The combination of spread and predictability allowed us to derive probability distribution functions (PDFs) for lateral position given observed crosswind (CW) velocities. In this study, we examine the portability of these PDFs with respect to other landing sites. To this end, we consider OGE data obtained by the Federal Aviation Administration for landings at Denver International Airport (DEN) between 04/05/2006 and 06/03/2006. We consider vortices from both B733 (Boeing 737 models 200-500) and B757 (Boeing 757) aircraft. The data set contains 635 B733 landings and 506 B757 landings. The glide slope altitude for these measurements was 280 m, determined by the average initial vortex observation adjusted for a 3-second delay in the initial observation. The comparable SFO altitude was 158 m. We note that the principal mechanism for lateral transport in the OGE regime is advection by the ambient wind. This implies that a simple crosswind correction may be effective in explaining much of the variation in the lateral transport data. In this study, we again consider the use of ASOS data and average Lidar crosswind data over the vortex altitude range to predict vortex location as a function of time.

Mellman, George R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Context Modeler for Wavelet Compression of Spectral Hyperspectral Images

A context-modeling sub-algorithm has been developed as part of an algorithm that effects three-dimensional (3D) wavelet-based compression of hyperspectral image data. The context-modeling subalgorithm, hereafter denoted the context modeler, provides estimates of probability distributions of wavelet-transformed data being encoded. These estimates are utilized by an entropy coding subalgorithm that is another major component of the compression algorithm. The estimates make it possible to compress the image data more effectively than would otherwise be possible. The following background discussion is prerequisite to a meaningful summary of the context modeler. This discussion is presented relative to ICER-3D, which is the name attached to a particular compression algorithm and the software that implements it. The ICER-3D software is summarized briefly in the preceding article, ICER-3D Hyperspectral Image Compression Software (NPO-43238). Some aspects of this algorithm were previously described, in a slightly more general context than the ICER-3D software, in "Improving 3D Wavelet-Based Compression of Hyperspectral Images" (NPO-41381), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 2009), page 7a. In turn, ICER-3D is a product of generalization of ICER, another previously reported algorithm and computer program that can perform both lossless and lossy wavelet-based compression and decompression of gray-scale-image data. In ICER-3D, hyperspectral image data are decomposed using a 3D discrete wavelet transform (DWT). Following wavelet decomposition, mean values are subtracted from spatial planes of spatially low-pass subbands prior to encoding. The resulting data are converted to sign-magnitude form and compressed. In ICER-3D, compression is progressive, in that compressed information is ordered so that as more of the compressed data stream is received, successive reconstructions of the hyperspectral image data are of successively higher overall fidelity.

Kiely, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2010

Role of the Russell-McPherron Effect in the Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons

While it is well known that high fluxes of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts are associated with high-speed solar wind and its heightened geoeffectiveness,less known is the fact that the Russell McPherron(R M) effect strongly controls whether or not a given high-speed stream is geoffective. To test whether it then follows that the R M effect also strongly controls fluxes of relativistic electrons, we perform a superposed epoch analysis across corotating interaction regions (CIR) keyed on the interfaces between slow and fast wind. A total of 394 stream interfaces were identified in the years 1994-2006. Equinoctial interfaces were separated into four classes based on the R-M effect,that is, whether the solar wind on either side of the interface was either(geo)effective (E) or ineffective (I) depending on season and the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Four classes of interface identified as II, IE, EI,and EE are possible. The classes IE and EI correspond to CIRs with polarity changes indicating passage through the heliospheric current sheet. To characterize the behavior of solar wind and magnetospheric variables, we produced maps of dynamic cumulative probability distribution functions (cdfs) as a function of time over 10-day intervals centered on the interfaces. These reveal that effective high-speed streams have geomagnetic activity nearly twice as strong as ineffective streams and electron fluxes a factor of 12 higher. In addition they show that an effective low-speed stream increases the flux of relativistic electrons before the interface so that an effective to ineffective transition results in lower fluxes after the interface.We conclude that the R-M effect plays a major role in organizing and sustaining a sequence of physical processes responsible for the acceleration of relativistic electrons.

McPherron, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations.The tool includes climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessing the Relative Performance of Microwave-Based Satellite Rain Rate Retrievals Using TRMM Ground Validation Data

Space-borne microwave sensors provide critical rain information used in several global multi-satellite rain products, which in turn are used for a variety of important studies, including landslide forecasting, flash flood warning, data assimilation, climate studies, and validation of model forecasts of precipitation. This study employs four years (2003-2006) of satellite data to assess the relative performance and skill of SSM/I (F13, F14 and F15), AMSU-B (N15, N16 and N17), AMSR-E (Aqua) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) in estimating surface rainfall based on direct instantaneous comparisons with ground-based rain estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Ground Validation (GV) sites at Kwajalein, Republic of the Marshall Islands (KWAJ) and Melbourne, Florida (MELB). The relative performance of each of these satellite estimates is examined via comparisons with space- and time-coincident GV radar-based rain rate estimates. Because underlying surface terrain is known to affect the relative performance of the satellite algorithms, the data for MELB was further stratified into ocean, land and coast categories using a 0.25 terrain mask. Of all the satellite estimates compared in this study, TMI and AMSR-E exhibited considerably higher correlations and skills in estimating/observing surface precipitation. While SSM/I and AMSU-B exhibited lower correlations and skills for each of the different terrain categories, the SSM/I absolute biases trended slightly lower than AMSRE over ocean, where the observations from both emission and scattering channels were used in the retrievals. AMSU-B exhibited the least skill relative to GV in all of the relevant statistical categories, and an anomalous spike was observed in the probability distribution functions near 1.0 mm/hr. This statistical artifact appears to be related to attempts by algorithm developers to include some lighter rain rates, not easily detectable by its scatter-only frequencies. AMSU-B, however, agreed well with GV when the matching data was analyzed on monthly scales. These results signal developers of global rainfall products, such as the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and the Climate Data Center s Morphing (CMORPH) technique, that care must be taken when incorporating data from these input satellite estimates in order to provide the highest quality estimates in their products. 3

Wolff, David B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish .

Courey, Karim J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessing the Relative Performance of Microwave-Based Satellite Rain Rate Retrievals Using TRMM Ground Validation Data

Space-borne microwave sensors provide critical rain information used in several global multi-satellite rain products, which in turn are used for a variety of important studies, including landslide forecasting, flash flood warning, data assimilation, climate studies, and validation of model forecasts of precipitation. This study employs four years (2003-2006) of satellite data to assess the relative performance and skill of SSM/I (F13, F14 and F15), AMSU-B (N15, N16 and N17), AMSR-E (Aqua) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) in estimating surface rainfall based on direct instantaneous comparisons with ground-based rain estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Ground Validation (GV) sites at Kwajalein, Republic of the Marshall Islands (KWAJ) and Melbourne, Florida (MELB). The relative performance of each of these satellite estimates is examined via comparisons with space- and time-coincident GV radar-based rain rate estimates. Because underlying surface terrain is known to affect the relative performance of the satellite algorithms, the data for MELB was further stratified into ocean, land and coast categories using a 0.25deg terrain mask. Of all the satellite estimates compared in this study, TMI and AMSR-E exhibited considerably higher correlations and skills in estimating/observing surface precipitation. While SSM/I and AMSU-B exhibited lower correlations and skills for each of the different terrain categories, the SSM/I absolute biases trended slightly lower than AMSR-E over ocean, where the observations from both emission and scattering channels were used in the retrievals. AMSU-B exhibited the least skill relative to GV in all of the relevant statistical categories, and an anomalous spike was observed in the probability distribution functions near 1.0 mm/hr. This statistical artifact appears to be related to attempts by algorithm developers to include some lighter rain rates, not easily detectable by its scatter-only frequencies. AMSU-B, however, agreed well with GV when the matching data was analyzed on monthly scales. These results signal developers of global rainfall products, such as the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and the Climate Data Center s Morphing (CMORPH) technique, that care must be taken when incorporating data from these input satellite estimates in order to provide the highest quality estimates in their products.

Wolff, David B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Measurement of CPAS Main Parachute Rate of Descent

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is being designed to land the Orion Crew Module (CM) at a safe rate of descent at splashdown. Flight test performance must be measured to a high degree of accuracy to ensure this requirement is met with the most efficient design possible. Although the design includes three CPAS Main parachutes, the requirement is that the system must not exceed 33 ft/s under two Main parachutes, should one of the Main parachutes fail. Therefore, several tests were conducted with clusters of two Mains. All of the steady-state rate of descent data are normalized to standard sea level conditions and checked against the limit. As the Orion design gains weight, the system is approaching this limit to within measurement precision. Parachute "breathing," cluster interactions, and atmospheric anomalies can cause the rate of descent to vary widely and lead to challenges in characterizing parachute terminal performance. An early test had contradictory rate of descent results from optical trajectory and Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS). A thorough analysis of the data sources and error propagation was conducted to determine the uncertainty in the trajectory. It was discovered that the Time Space Position Information (TSPI) from the optical tracking provided accurate position data. However, the velocity from TPSI must be computed via numerical differentiation, which is prone to large error. DGPS obtains position through pseudo-range calculations from multiple satellites and velocity through Doppler shift of the carrier frequency. Because the velocity from DGPS is a direct measurement, it is more accurate than TSPI velocity. To remedy the situation, a commercial off-the-shelf product that combines GPS and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) was purchased to significantly improve rate of descent measurements. This had the added benefit of solving GPS dropouts during aircraft extraction. Statistical probability distributions for CPAS Main parachute rate of descent and drag coefficient were computed and plotted. Using test data, a terminal rate of descent at splashdown can be estimated as a function of canopy loading.

Ray, Eric S.↗