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DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Unsupervised Cyber Anomaly Detection via Non-Negative Tensor Factorization

Distinguishing malicious anomalous activities from unusual but benign activities is a fundamental challenge for cyber defenders. Prior studies have shown that statistical user behavior analysis yields accurate detections by learning behavior profiles from observed user activity. These unsupervised models are able to generalize to unseen types of attacks by detecting deviations from normal behavior, without knowledge of specific attack signatures. However, approaches proposed to date based on probabilistic matrix factorization are limited by the information conveyed in a two-dimensional space. Non-negative tensor factorization, on the other hand, is a powerful unsupervised machine learning method that naturally models multi-dimensional data, capturing complex and multi-faceted details of behavior profiles. Herein, our new unsupervised statistical anomaly detection methodology matches or surpasses state-of-the-art supervised learning baselines across several challenging and diverse cyber application areas, including detection of compromised user credentials, botnets, spam e-mails, and fraudulent credit card transactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2020

Milling stability identification using Bayesian machine learning

This paper describes automated identification of the milling stability boundary using Bayesian machine learning and experiments. The Bayesian machine learning process begins with the user’s initial beliefs about milling stability. This “prior” is a distribution that uses all available information, which may be based only on experience or may be informed by physics-based model predictions. Experiments are then completed to update this prior by calculating the “posterior,” a modified probabilistic description of the milling stability limit based on the new information. The approach is demonstrated and results are presented for both numerical and experimental cases.

Karandikar, Jaydeep↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Probabilistic Scheme for Semilinear Nonlocal Diffusion Equations with Volume Constraints

This work presents a probabilistic scheme for solving semilinear nonlocal diffusion equations with volume constraints and integrable kernels. The nonlocal model of interest is defined by a time-dependent semilinear partial integro-differential equation (PIDE), in which the integro-differential operator consists of both local convection-diffusion and nonlocal diffusion operators. Here, our numerical scheme is based on the direct approximation of the nonlinear Feynman–Kac formula that establishes a link between nonlinear PIDEs and stochastic differential equations. The exploitation of the Feynman–Kac representation avoids solving dense linear systems arising from nonlocal operators. Compared with existing stochastic approaches, our method can achieve first-order convergence after balancing the temporal and spatial discretization errors, which is a significant improvement of existing probabilistic/stochastic methods for nonlocal diffusion problems. Error analysis of our numerical scheme is established. The effectiveness of our approach is shown in two numerical examples. The first example considers a three-dimensional nonlocal diffusion equation to numerically verify the error analysis results. The second example presents a physics problem motivated by the study of heat transport in magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

NRAP Toolkit Screening for CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County

In this report we take stratigraphic data from the ISGS-led Macon County Phase 2 CarbonSAFE’s proposed site in Christian County, Illinois, and conduct reservoir simulations to generate pressure and CO 2 saturation plume data as a function of time. We then use this plume data along with the stratigraphic data as inputs to the NRAP Open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to evaluate project risks. For this report we focus on the probabilistic risk associated with hypothetical leakage of CO 2 and brine along the injection well and one monitoring well. We also study the resulting impact to two overlying aquifers, which could be used to inform monitoring technology selection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fundamental Investigations into the Properties and Performance of Advanced Materials

Intelligent engineering designs require an accurate understanding of material behavior, since any uncertainties or gaps in knowledge must be counterbalanced with heightened factors of safety, leading to overdesign. Therefore, building better structures and pushing the performance of new components requires an improved understanding of the thermomechanical response of advanced materials under service conditions. This dissertation provides fundamental investigations of several advanced materials: thermoset polymers, a common matrix material for fiber-reinforced composites and nanocomposites; aluminum alloy 7075-T6 (AA7075-T6), a high-performance aerospace material; and ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), an advanced composite for extreme-temperature applications. To understand matrix interactions with various interfaces and nanoinclusions at their fundamental scale, the properties of thermoset polymers are studied at the atomistic scale. An improved proximity-based molecular dynamics (MD) technique for modeling the crosslinking of thermoset polymers is carefully established, enabling realistic curing simulations through its ability to dynamically and probabilistically perform complex topology transformations. The proximity-based MD curing methodology is then used to explore damage initiation and the local anisotropic evolution of mechanical properties in thermoset polymers under uniaxial tension with an emphasis on changes in stiffness through a series of tensile loading, unloading, and reloading experiments. Aluminum alloys in aerospace applications often require a fatigue life of over 109 cycles, which is well over ii the number of cycles that can be practically tested using conventional fatigue testing equipment. In order to study these high-life regimes, a detailed ultrasonic cycle fatigue study is presented for AA7075-T6 under fully reversed tension-compression loading. The geometric sensitivity, frequency effects, size effects, surface roughness effects, and the corresponding failure mechanisms for ultrasonic fatigue across different fatigue regimes are investigated. Finally, because CMCs are utilized in extreme environments, oxidation plays an important role in their degradation. A multiphysics modeling methodology is thus developed to address the complex coupling between oxidation, mechanical stress, and oxygen diffusion in heterogeneous carbon fiber-reinforced CMC microstructures.

Schichtel, Jacob J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a python package allowing for fast and precise orbital modeling. SSAPy is designed with speed and accuracy in mind and offers the following capabilities: - A variety of integrators, including Runge-Kutta, SciPy, SGP4, etc. - Customizable force propagation models, including a variety of Earth gravity models, lunar gravity, radiation pressure, etc. - Multiple-hypothesis tracking (MHT) UCT linker - Vectorized computations - Short arc probabilistic orbit determination - Conjunction probability estimation - Uncertainty quantification - Monte Carlo data fusion - Support for multiple coordinate frames (with coordinate frame conversions)

Schlafly, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2024

popclass

popclass is a lightweight python package that allows fast, probabilistic classification of the lens of a microlensing event given the event's posterior distribution and a model of the Galaxy. popclass provides the bridge between Galactic simulation and lens classification, an interface to common Bayesian inference libraries, and the ability for users to flexibly specify their own Galactic model and classification parameters.

Mcgill, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Randomized Algorithms for Scientific Computing (RASC)

Randomized algorithms have propelled advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and represent a foundational research area in advancing AI for Science. Future advancements in DOE Office of Science priority areas such as climate science, astrophysics, fusion, advanced materials, combustion, and quantum computing all require randomized algorithms for surmounting challenges of complexity, robustness, and scalability. Advances in data collection and numerical simulation have changed the dynamics of scientific research and motivate the need for randomized algorithms. For instance, advances in imaging technologies such as X-ray ptychography, electron microscopy, electron energy loss spectroscopy, or adaptive optics lattice light-sheet microscopy collect hyperspectral imaging and scattering data in terabytes, at breakneck speed enabled by state-of-the-art detectors. The data collection is exceptionally fast compared with its analysis. Likewise, advances in high-performance architectures have made exascale computing a reality and changed the economies of scientific computing in the process. Floating-point operations that create data are essentially free in comparison with data movement. Thus far, most approaches have focused on creating faster hardware. Ironically, this faster hardware has exacerbated the problem by making data still easier to create. Under such an onslaught, scientists often resort to heuristic deterministic sampling schemes (e.g., low-precision arithmetic, sampling every nth element) and sacrifice potentially valuable accuracy. Dramatically better results can be achieved via randomized algorithms, reducing the data size as much as or more than naive deterministic subsampling can achieve, while retaining the high accuracy of computing on the full data set. By randomized algorithms we mean those algorithms that employ some form of randomness in internal algorithmic decisions to accelerate time to solution, increase scalability, or improve reliability. Examples include matrix sketching for solving large-scale least-squares problems (see Figure 1) and stochastic gradient descent for training machine learning models. We are not recommending heuristic methods but rather randomized algorithms that have certificates of correctness and probabilistic guarantees of optimality and near-optimality. Such approaches can be useful beyond acceleration, for example, in understanding how to avoid measure zero worst-case scenarios that plague methods such as QR matrix factorization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation

We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D probabilistic fracture mechanics / computational fluid dynamics simulation of a reactor pressure vessel under transient conditions

Reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) are safety-critical light-water-reactor components that, under irradiation, experience long-term material degradation in the form of embrittlement. This can increase their susceptibility to fracture under thermal-shock conditions, which could occur during off-normal transients such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). During a LOCA, the most severe conditions for the RPV occur when emergency core cooling water is injected through the cold legs into the water-and-steam-filled RPV. The rapid cooling of the downcomer and internal RPV surface causes decreased temperature and elevated thermally driven tensile stresses in the RPV wall. This, combined with long-term material embrittlement, may cause fracture initiation at pre-existing flaws, challenging the integrity of the RPV. Assessing RPV integrity during transients with a large spatial variation in the coolant temperature requires a modeling approach that considers the effects of spatially varying coolant temperature on the fracture probability of a population of flaws distributed throughout the RPV, accounting for spatially varying embrittlement. Here, the present study addresses this need by demonstrating first-of-its-kind coupling of a high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamics code with 3D probabilistic fracture mechanics This was accomplished using representative models of a pressurized-water reactor subjected to small- and medium-break LOCA conditions, both of which can result in large spatial temperature variations. While the observed impact of accounting for 3D effects was minimal under the small-break LOCA this study indicates a significant increase in the probability of fracture initiation under the medium-break LOCA when 3D effects are considered, relative to a spatially uniform cooling scenario.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗