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Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project: Integrative Modeling Approach

A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.

biomechanics↗

Metal-poor stars. IV - The evolution of red giants.

Detailed evolutionary calculations for six Population-II red giants are presented. The first five of these models are followed from the zero age main sequence to the onset of the helium flash. The sixth model allows the effect of direct electron-neutrino interactions to be estimated. The updated input physics and evolutionary code are described briefly. The results of the calculations are presented in a manner pertinent to later stages of evolutions and suitable for comparison with observations.

Rood, R. T.↗

Atomic hydrogen escape rate due to charge exchange with hot plasmaspheric ions

Data on ion and electron temperatures and concentrations to several thousand kilometers of altitude were obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer C satellite for 1974 and to 850 km from Arecibo incoherent scatter radar measurements. These data were used to normalize diffusive equilibrium profiles. From these profiles and by using the neutral atmospheric model of Jacchia (1971) and a new hydrogen model, the charge-exchange-induced neutral hydrogen escape fluxes for equatorial and middle latitudes were calculated. The data confirm earlier estimates that the charge exchange loss is more important than Jeans escape for the earth. It is also found that inside the plasmapause this charge exchange process with hot plasmapheric ions is the major production and loss process for the satellite population in the hydrogen geocorona.

Maher, L. J.↗

Nonresonant interaction of ultrashort electromagnetic pulses with multilevel quantum systems

Some features of the excitation of multilevel quantum systems under the action of electromagnetic pulses which are shorter than the inverse frequency of interlevel transitions are considered. It is shown that the interaction is characterized by a specific type of selectivity which is not connected with the resonant absorption of radiation. The simplest three-level model displays the inverse population of upper levels. The effect of an ultrashort laser pulse on a multilevel molecule was regarded as an instant reception of the oscillation velocity by the oscillator and this approach showed an effective excitation and dissociation of the molecule. The estimations testify to the fact that these effects can be observed using modern femtosecond lasers.

Belenov, E.↗

The Use of GIS and Remotely Sensed Data in Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project in collaboration with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta, GA. Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(sub 2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(sub 2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in ongoing surveillance. NASA/MSFC is working with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in a Geographic Information System (GIS) that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma on the aggregated grid level as well as the individual level at the geographic locations of the patients' residences.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

Geosynchronous Environment for ORDEM2008

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008) requires accurate populations as input template files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2008 are derived from a consortium of data and modeling. Geosynchronous (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2008 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 4 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes with the NASA Standard Breakup model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and node over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2008).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

The Geosynchrous Environment for ORDEM2010

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2010) requires accurate populations as input files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2010 are derived from an amalgam of data and modeling. Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2010 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems, and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 3 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes using the NASA Standard Breakup Model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and right ascension of ascending node (RAAN) over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2010).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

Estimation of the Anthropogenic Influence in the Sahel by Terra and Aqua

Saharan dust impacts the Earth radiation balance. It was suggested that anywhere between 20-50% of the dust is anthropogenic, generated from human activity in the Sahel. Recent study By Prospero et al noticed that most of the sources should be north of Latitude of 15 deg. where population density is small. Here we use Aqua and Terra data to study the dust sources and their possible anthropogenic origin. Dust packages emitted from the Bodele depression and other sources in the southern part of the Sahara, are transported in the winter by a Northern East winds over the Sahel to the ocean. We are tracking these packages with MODIS from their sources to the ocean, showing that most of the dust reaching the Ocean from the Sahelian shore is generated in the Sahara, suggesting that the anthropogenic influence in the area is negligible. Saharan dust was suggested to be the main source of nutrients to the Amazon forest. Here we are also showing that these South Saharan sources around the Bodele depression are very active in the winter and rather passive in the summer, suggesting that the type of dust reaching Brazil, and its mineral content from these sources may be different from the dust that arrives to North America and Europe emitted in the summer from different sources.

Koren, I.↗

Assessing Non-CO2 Climate-Forcing Emissions and Mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

There are few direct measurements of anthropogenic climate-forcing emissions in Africa, making it difficult to accurately assess current emissions and to anticipate changes in future emissions. Emissions databases suggest that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to less than 15 of the world's population, is responsible for 11 of anthropogenic methane (CH4) and 18 of anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions globally, though this includes substantial emissions from biomass burning that would occur in the absence of contemporary anthropogenic activity, and which may be over-estimated. SSA is also an important source of precursors to the greenhouse gas tropospheric ozone, and of mineral dust, which has a range of impacts on climate. Eliminating food insecurity and poverty is likely to take priority over greenhouse gas mitigation in the region, so innovations in mitigation must focus on ways to reduce emissions as an ancillary benefit of improving livelihoods.

Africa↗

iPTF14yb: The First Discovery of a Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Independent of a High-Energy Trigger

We report here the discovery by the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) of iPTF14yb, a luminous (Mr >> -27.8 mag), cosmological (redshift 1.9733), rapidly fading optical transient. We demonstrate, based on probabilistic arguments and a comparison with the broader population, that iPTF14yb is the optical afterglow of the long-duration gamma-ray burst GRB 140226A. This marks the first unambiguous discovery of a GRB afterglow prior to (and thus entirely independent of) an associated high-energy trigger. We estimate the rate of iPTF14yb-like sources (i.e., cosmologically distant relativistic explosions) based on iPTF observations, inferring an all-sky value of Rrel = 610/yr (68% confidence interval of 110-2000/yr). Our derived rate is consistent (within the large uncertainty) with the all-sky rate of on-axis GRBs derived by the Swift satellite. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications of the nondetection to date of bona fide "orphan" afterglows (i.e., those lacking detectable high-energy emission) on GRB beaming and the degree of baryon loading in these relativistic jets.

gamma-ray burst: general aEuro" stars: flare aEuro↗

Transient gain-versus-absorption laser probing of spin-orbit states, kinetics and dynamics

The spin-orbit populations of excited (2P1/2) and ground (2P3/2) state Br atoms at 2714 nm and I atoms at 1315 nm are examined using a tunable F-center laser and a diode laser. The transient laser gain-versus-absorption measurements are utilized to estimate quantum yields of the spin-orbit states in the photodissociation of Br- and I-containing compounds; the continuum yields for Br2 are investigated in terms of temperature. The collisional release, Doppler velocity effects, and differing reactivity of the spin-orbit excited and ground state atoms are studied. It is noted that the transient gain versus absorption technique is applicable to the analysis of kinetic phenomena due to its high sensitivity and excellent time resolution.

Smedley, John E.↗

Imaging and two-dimensional spectra of the IR-bright galaxy NGC 2146 - A recent low-energy merger?

New data are presented on the IR-luminous galaxy NGC 2146 from several sources: direct imaging in B, R, and H-alpha; IR imaging in the J, H, and K bands; long-slit spectroscopy at optical and IR wavelengths; and scanning etalon observations in H-alpha. The results allow measurement of the interstellar extinction in the dust lane, and estimation of the true luminosity of the galaxy and nuclear regions. The spectra indicate that there is no active nucleus, and measure the changing ratio of forbidden to permitted lines across the galaxy. IR images and colors indicate the existence of a significant population of hot young stars in the central regions of the system. The H-alpha velocity maps show the full radial-velocity pattern, and suggest that the system consists of a disturbed disk and a merging or interacting arm which connects to the inner dust and radio structures. Outer H-alpha and H I structures appear to be the earlier remnants of this spiraling merger.

Hutchings, J. B.↗

Analysis of strontium metabolism in humans on the basis of the Techa river data

Age and sex features of strontium metabolism have been analyzed on studies of the population residing on the banks of the Techa river which was contaminated by fission products during the years 1949-1956. Measurements of 90Sr body burden have been performed since 1974 using a whole-body counter, and these have made it possible to estimate age-specific long-term retention and elimination rates for men and women. Regarding the retention that correlated with the respective maturation ages, distinct sex differences have been observed for adolescents, whereas only postmenopausal women showed a sharp increase of their elimination rates. There were no differences concerning the reproductive ages. Our experimental findings have a clear physiological interpretation and can be used to develop metabolic models for bone-seeking radionuclides.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

LAD-C: A large area debris collector on the ISS

The Large Area Debris Collector (LAD-C) is a 10 sq m aerogel and acoustic sensor system under development by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) with main collaboration from the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center, JAXA Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Chiba University (Japan), ESA Space Debris Office, University of California at Berkeley, and University of Kent at Canterbury (UK). The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Space Test Program (STP) has assumed the responsibility for having the system manifested and deployed on the International Space Station (ISS), and then having it retrieved and returned to Earth after one to two years. LAD-C will attempt to utilize the ISS as a scientific platform to characterize the near-Earth meteoroid and orbital debris environment in the size regime where little data exist. In addition to meteoroid and orbital debris sample return, the acoustic sensors will record impact time, location, signal strength, and acoustic waveform data of the largest collected samples. A good time-dependent meteoroid and orbital debris flux estimate can be derived. Analysis of the data will also enable potential source identification of some of the collected samples. This dynamical link can be combined with laboratory composition analysis of impact residuals extracted from aerogel to further our understanding of orbital debris population, and the sources of meteoroids, asteroids and comets.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Digital Signal Processing Techniques for the GIFTS SM EDU

The Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) Sensor Module (SM) Engineering Demonstration Unit (EDU) is a high resolution spectral imager designed to measure infrared (IR) radiance using a Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The GIFTS instrument employs three Focal Plane Arrays (FPAs), which gather measurements across the long-wave IR (LWIR), short/mid-wave IR (SMWIR), and visible spectral bands. The raw interferogram measurements are radiometrically and spectrally calibrated to produce radiance spectra, which are further processed to obtain atmospheric profiles via retrieval algorithms. This paper describes several digital signal processing (DSP) techniques involved in the development of the calibration model. In the first stage, the measured raw interferograms must undergo a series of processing steps that include filtering, decimation, and detector nonlinearity correction. The digital filtering is achieved by employing a linear-phase even-length FIR complex filter that is designed based on the optimum equiripple criteria. Next, the detector nonlinearity effect is compensated for using a set of pre-determined detector response characteristics. In the next stage, a phase correction algorithm is applied to the decimated interferograms. This is accomplished by first estimating the phase function from the spectral phase response of the windowed interferogram, and then correcting the entire interferogram based on the estimated phase function. In the calibration stage, we first compute the spectral responsivity based on the previous results and the ideal Planck blackbody spectra at the given temperatures, from which, the calibrated ambient blackbody (ABB), hot blackbody (HBB), and scene spectra can be obtained. In the post-calibration stage, we estimate the Noise Equivalent Spectral Radiance (NESR) from the calibrated ABB and HBB spectra. The NESR is generally considered as a measure of the instrument noise performance, and can be estimated as the standard deviation of calibrated radiance spectra from multiple scans. To obtain an estimate of the FPA performance, we developed an efficient method of generating pixel performance assessments. In addition, a random pixel selection scheme is developed based on the pixel performance evaluation. This would allow us to perform the calibration procedures on a random pixel population that is a good statistical representation of the entire FPA. The design and implementation of each individual component will be discussed in details.

Tian, Jialin↗

The Distribution of Interplanetary Dust between 0.96 and 1.04 au as Inferred from Impacts on the STEREO Spacecraft Observed by the Heliospheric Imagers

The distribution of dust in the ecliptic plane between 0.96 and 1.04 au has been inferred from impacts on the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft through observation of secondary particle trails and unexpected off-points in the heliospheric imager (HI) cameras. This study made use of analysis carried out by members of a distributed webbased citizen science project Solar Stormwatch. A comparison between observations of the brightest particle trails and a survey of fainter trails shows consistent distributions. While there is no obvious correlation between this distribution and the occurrence of individual meteor streams at Earth, there are some broad longitudinal features in these distributions that are also observed in sources of the sporadic meteor population. The different position of the HI instrument on the two STEREO spacecraft leads to each sampling different populations of dust particles. The asymmetry in the number of trails seen by each spacecraft and the fact that there are many more unexpected off-points in the HI-B than in HI-A indicates that the majority of impacts are coming from the apex direction. For impacts causing off-points in the HI-B camera, these dust particles are estimated to have masses in excess of 10 (exp−17) kg with radii exceeding 0.1 μm. For off-points observed in the HI-A images, which can only have been caused by particles travelling from the anti-apex direction, the distribution is consistent with that of secondary 'storm' trails observed by HI-B, providing evidence that these trails also result from impacts with primary particles from an anti-apex source. Investigating the mass distribution for the off-points of both HI-A and HI-B, it is apparent that the differential mass index of particles from the apex direction (causing off-points in HI-B) is consistently above 2. This indicates that the majority of the mass is within the smaller particles of this population. In contrast, the differential mass index of particles from the anti-apex direction (causing off-points in HI-A) is consistently below 2, indicating that the majority of the mass is to be found in larger particles of this distribution.

Davis, C. J.↗

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.

R Abbott↗

A Gamma-Ray Burst Trigger Toolkit

The detection rate of a gamma-ray burst detector can be increased by using a count rate trigger with many accumulation times DELTAt and energy bands DELTAE Because a burst's peak flux varies when averaged over different DELTAt and DELTAE the nominal sensitivity (the numerical value of the peak flux) of a trigger system is less important than how much fainter a burst could be at the detection threshold as DELTAt and DELTAE are changed. The relative sensitivity of different triggers can be quantified by referencing the detection threshold back to the peak flux for a fiducial value of DELTAt and DELTA E. This mapping between peak flux values for different sets of DELTAt and DELTAE varies from burst to burst. Quantitative estimates of the burst detection rate for a given detector and trigger system can be based on the observed rate at a measured peak flux value in this fiducial trigger. Predictions of a proposed trigger's burst detection rate depend on the assumed burst population, and these predictions can be wildly in error for triggers that differ significantly from previous missions. I base the fiducial rate on the BATSE observations: 550 bursts per sky above a peak flux of 0.3 ph per square centimeter per second averaged over DELTAt=1.024 sec and DELTAE=50-300 keV. Using a sample of 100 burst lightcurves I find that triggering on any value of DELTAt that is a multiple of 0.064 sec decreases the average threshold peak flux on the 1.024 sec timescale by a factor of 0.6. Extending DELTAE to lower energies includes the large flux of the X-ray background, increasing the background count rate. Consequently a low energy DELTAE is advantageous only for very soft bursts. Whether a large fraction of the population of bright bursts is soft is disputed; the new population of X-ray Flashes is soft but relatively faint.

Band, David L.↗