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NASA NTRS1986

The propagation of solar flare particles in a coronal loop

A time-dependent diffusion equation with velocity-dependent diffusion and energy-loss coefficients was solved for the case where energetic solar particles are injected into a coronal loop and then diffuse out the ends of the loop into the lower corona/chromosphere. The solution yields for the case of relativistic electrons, precipitation rates and populations which are necessary for calculating thick and thin target X-ray emission. It follows that the thick target emission is necessarily delayed with respect to the particle acceleration on injection by more than the mere travel time of the particle over the loop length. In addition the time-dependent electron population at the top of the loop is calculated. This is useful in estimating the resulting micron-wave emission. The results show relative timing differences in the different emission processes which are functions of particle species, energy and the point of injection of the particles into the loop. Equivalent quantities are calculated for non-relativistic protons.

Ryan, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Apollo 14 regolith breccias - Different glass populations and their potential for charting space time variations

Apollo 14 regolith breccias (14313, 14307, 14301, 14049, 14047) have been found to have different populations of nonagglutinitic, mare-derived glasses. These variations appear to not only reflect different source regoliths but also different closure ages for these breccias. Based upon these different glass populations, 14301 is inferred to have a closure age sometime during the epoch of mare volcanism. All of the other four breccias were formed after the termination of mare volcanism with a possible age sequence from old to young of the following: 14307, 14313, 14049, 14047. Due to the relative simplicity of acquiring high-quality chemical data on large numbers of glasses by electron microprobe, mare glass populations allow: (1) classification of regolith breccias with respect to provenance and (2) estimation of their relative and absolute closure ages. The determination of (Ar-40)-(Ar-39) ages on individual glass spherules within breccias using the laser probe should in the future prove to be a promising extension of the present study.

Delano, John W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Runway exit designs for capacity improvement demonstrations. Phase 2: Computer model development

The development is described of a computer simulation/optimization model to: (1) estimate the optimal locations of existing and proposed runway turnoffs; and (2) estimate the geometric design requirements associated with newly developed high speed turnoffs. The model described, named REDIM 2.0, represents a stand alone application to be used by airport planners, designers, and researchers alike to estimate optimal turnoff locations. The main procedures are described in detail which are implemented in the software package and possible applications are illustrated when using 6 major runway scenarios. The main output of the computer program is the estimation of the weighted average runway occupancy time for a user defined aircraft population. Also, the location and geometric characteristics of each turnoff are provided to the user.

Trani, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Dust torus around Mars

We investigate the orbital dynamics of small dust particles generated via the continuous micrometeoroid bombardment of the Martian moons. In addition to Mar's oblateness, we also consider the radiation pressure perturbation that is complicated by the planet's eccentric orbit and tilted rotational axis. Considering the production rates and the lifetimes of dust grains, we show that particles from Deimos with radii of about 15 micrometers are expected to dominate the population of a permanently present and tilted dust torus. This torus has an estimated peak number density of approximately equals 5 x 10(exp -12)/cu cm and an optical depth of approximately equals 4 x 10(exp -8).

Juhasz, Antal↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Young Stellar Cluster in the Nucleus of NGC 4449

We have obtained 1-2 A resolution optical Echellette spectra of the nuclear star cluster in the nearby starburst galaxy NGC4449. The light is clearly dominated by a very young (6 - 10 Myr) population of stars. For our age dating, we have used recent population synthesis models to interpret the observed equivalent width of stellar absorption features such as the H I Balmer series and the Ca II triplet around 8500 A. We also compare the observed spectrum of the nuclear cluster to synthesized spectra for stellar populations of varying ages. All these approaches yield a consistent cluster age. Metallicity estimates based on the relative intensities of various ionization lines yield no evidence for significant enrichment in the center of this low mass galaxy: the metallicity of the nuclear cluster is about one fourth of the solar value, in agreement with independent estimates for the disk material of NGC4449.

Boeker, Torsten↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Impact of Stripped Cores on the Frequency of Earth-size Planets in the Habitable Zone

The frequency of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone(HZ)of Sun-like stars, hereafter, is a key parameter to evaluate the yield of nearby Earth analogs that can be detected and characterized by future missions. Yet, this value is poorly constrained as there are no reliable exoplanet candidates in the HZ of Sun-like stars in the Kepler field. Here, we show that extrapolations relying on the population of small(<1.8R), short-period(<25 days)planets bias to large values. As the radius distribution at short orbital periods is strongly affected by atmospheric loss, we reevaluate using exoplanets at larger separations. We find that drops considerably, to values of only5% - 10%. Observations of young(<100 Myr)clusters can probe short-period sub-Neptunes that still retain most of their envelope mass. As such, they can be used to quantify the contamination of sub-Neptunes to the population of Kepler short-period small planets and aid in more reliable estimates of.

Pascucci, Ilaria↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Inundation from Hurricane Florence (2018) with L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, Commercial Imagery, and Ancillary Data via Random Forest Classification

Mapping the extent of floodwaters following extreme rainfall aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. This study seeks to determine how accurately maps of inundation can be generated from L-band SAR imagery through Random Forest classification. Once the extent of water and inundated vegetation is classified, cleanup operations are performed using fuzzy logic to reduce false detections. Estimates of water extent are then combined with datasets describing the distribution of population, buildings, and roads throughout the domain to evaluate societal impacts. Results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed along with the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.

Alexander Melancon↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pathways to excitation of atoms with bicircular laser pulses

We study the excitation of the hydrogen atom by bichromatic circularly polarized laser pulses using numerical solutions of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. The results are in agreement with the selection rules for multiphoton processes in such fields, namely, excited states are populated in which orbital angular momentum and magnetic quantum numbers are either both odd or both even, independent of the relative helicity, peak intensity, and pulse duration of the pulses. For co-rotating pulses the results show that excitation predominantly proceeds to states with magnetic quantum number of the same helicity as the laser pulses. Besides pathways via direct photon absorption from the ground state our results indicate that a transfer of population among the Rydberg states occurs via Λ-type transitions. In the case of counter-rotating pulses the largest excitation probability is found for Rydberg states that differ in magnetic quantum number by Δm=±3. This pattern allows us to estimate how many photons from each of the two bichromatic fields have been absorbed. Finally, we confirm that a population in Rydberg states beyond a maximum orbital angular quantum number is unlikely.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Bolvin, David T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The stellar population of the Lupus clouds

We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of the H alpha emission stars in the Lupus dark cloud complex. We estimate the effective temperatures of the stars from their spectral types and calculate the reddening towards each object from the (R-I) colors. From these data, we derive mass and age distributions for the Lupus stars using a new set of pre-main sequence evolutionar tracks. We compare the results for the Lupus stars with those for a similar population of young stellar objects in Taurus-Auriga and Chamaeleon and with the initial mass function for field stars in the solar neighborhood. From the H-R diagrams, Lupus appears to contain older stars than Taurus. The Lupus dark clouds form a greater proportion of low mass stars than the Taurus complex. Also, the proportion of low mass stars in Lupus is higher than that predicted by the Miller-Scalo initial mass function, and the lowest mass stars in Lupus are less active than similar T Tauri stars in other regions.

Hughes, Joanne↗

NASA NTRS2022

Galaxy Correlation Function and Local Density from Photometric Redshifts Using the Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT)

The stochastic order redshift technique (SORT) is a simple, efficient, and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method relies upon having a small (∼10 per cent) reference sample of high-quality redshifts. Within pencil- beam-like sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy, we use the precise dN/dz distribution of the reference sample to recover new redshifts and assign them one-to-one to galaxies such that the original rank order of redshifts is preserved. Preserving the rank order is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions with different means but equal standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. This process is repeated for sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy in the survey. This results in every galaxy being assigned multiple ‘recovered’ redshifts from which a new redshift estimate is determined. An earlier paper applied SORT to a mock Sloan Digital Sky Survey at z 0.2 and accurately recovered the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on scales > 4 h−1Mpc. In this paper, we test the performance of SORT in surveys spanning the redshift range 0.75 < z < 2.25. We used two mock surveys extracted from the Small MultiDark–Planck and Bolshoi–Planck N-body simulations with dark matter haloes that were populated by the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We find that SORT overall improves redshift estimates, accurately recovers the redshift-space 2PCF ξ (s) on scales > 2.5 h−1Mpc, and provides improved local density estimates in regions of average or higher density, which may allow for improved understanding of how galaxy properties relate to their environments.

James Kakos↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗

DOE OSTI2024

PyPop: a mature open-source software pipeline for population genomics

Python for Population Genomics (PyPop) is a software package that processes genotype and allele data and performs large-scale population genetic analyses on highly polymorphic multi-locus genotype data. In particular, PyPop tests data conformity to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations, performs Ewens-Watterson tests for selection, estimates haplotype frequencies, measures linkage disequilibrium, and tests significance. Standardized means of performing these tests is key for contemporary studies of evolutionary biology and population genetics, and these tests are central to genetic studies of disease association as well. Here, we present PyPop 1.0.0, a new major release of the package, which implements new features using the more robust infrastructure of GitHub, and is distributed via the industry-standard Python Package Index. New features include implementation of the asymmetric linkage disequilibrium measures and, of particular interest to the immunogenetics research communities, support for modern nomenclature, including colon-delimited allele names, and improvements to meta-analysis features for aggregating outputs for multiple populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Extracting galactic structure parameters from multivariated density estimation

Multivariate statistical analysis, including includes cluster analysis (unsupervised classification), discriminant analysis (supervised classification) and principle component analysis (dimensionlity reduction method), and nonparameter density estimation have been successfully used to search for meaningful associations in the 5-dimensional space of observables between observed points and the sets of simulated points generated from a synthetic approach of galaxy modelling. These methodologies can be applied as the new tools to obtain information about hidden structure otherwise unrecognizable, and place important constraints on the space distribution of various stellar populations in the Milky Way. In this paper, we concentrate on illustrating how to use nonparameter density estimation to substitute for the true densities in both of the simulating sample and real sample in the five-dimensional space. In order to fit model predicted densities to reality, we derive a set of equations which include n lines (where n is the total number of observed points) and m (where m: the numbers of predefined groups) unknown parameters. A least-square estimation will allow us to determine the density law of different groups and components in the Galaxy. The output from our software, which can be used in many research fields, will also give out the systematic error between the model and the observation by a Bayes rule.

Chen, B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Preservation and Enhancement of the Spacewatch Data Archives

In March of 1998, the asteroid 1997 XF11 was announced to be potentially hazardous after being tracked over 90 days. A potential two year wait for confirming observations was shortened to under 24 hours because of the existence of archived photographic prediscovery images. Spacewatch was a pioneer in using CCD scanning and possesses a valuable digital archive of its scans. Unfortunately these data are aging on magnetic tape and will soon be lost. Since 1990, the Spacewatch project gathered some 1.5 Terabytes of scan data covering roughly 75,000 degrees of sky to a limiting magnitude of V = 21.5. The data have not yet been mined for all of their asteroids for scientific studies and orbit determination. Spacewatch's real-time motion detection program MODP was constrained by the computers of the era to use simplified image processing algorithms at a reduced efficiency. Jedicke and Herron estimated MODP's efficiency at finding asteroids to be approximately 60 percent to V=18 and improving somewhat thereafter. This lead to a substantial bias correction in their analyses. Larsen has developed a MODP replacement capable in excess of 90 percent efficiency in the same range and able to push a magnitude fainter in completeness. We propose a program of post-processing and re-archiving Spacewatch data. Our scans would be transferred from tape to CD-ROMs and converted to FITS images -- establishing a consistent data format and media for both past and future Spacewatch observations. Larsen's MODP replacement would mine these data for previously undetected motions, which would be made available to the Minor Planet Center and our ongoing asteroid population studies. A searchable observation record would be made generally available for prediscovery work. We estimate the net asteroid yield of this proposal is equivalent to three full years of Spacewatch operations.

Larsen, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Full-Coverage High-Resolution Daily PM(sub 2.5) Estimation using MAIAC AOD in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been used to assess population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The emerging high-resolution satellite aerosol product, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction(MAIAC), provides a valuable opportunity to characterize local-scale PM(sub 2.5) at 1-km resolution. However, non-random missing AOD due to cloud snow cover or high surface reflectance makes this task challenging. Previous studies filled the data gap by spatially interpolating neighboring PM(sub 2.5) measurements or predictions. This strategy ignored the effect of cloud cover on aerosol loadings and has been shown to exhibit poor performance when monitoring stations are sparse or when there is seasonal large-scale missngness. Using the Yangtze River Delta of China as an example, we present a Multiple Imputation (MI) method that combines the MAIAC high-resolution satellite retrievals with chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to fill missing AOD. A two-stage statistical model driven by gap-filled AOD, meteorology and land use information was then fitted to estimate daily ground PM(sub 2.5) concentrations in 2013 and 2014 at 1 km resolution with complete coverage in space and time. The daily MI models have an average R(exp 2) of 0.77, with an inter-quartile range of 0.71 to 0.82 across days. The overall Ml model 10-fold cross-validation R(exp 2) (root mean square error) were 0.81 (25 gm(exp 3)) and 0.73 (18 gm(exp 3)) for year 2013 and 2014, respectively. Predictions with only observational AOD or only imputed AOD showed similar accuracy.Comparing with previous gap-filling methods, our MI method presented in this study performed bette rwith higher coverage, higher accuracy, and the ability to fill missing PM(sub 2.5) predictions without ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements. This method can provide reliable PM(sub 2.5)predictions with complete coverage that can reduce biasin exposure assessment in air pollution and health studies.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2019

EMIC Wave-Driven Bounce Resonance Scattering of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere

While electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have been long studied as a scattering mechanism for ultrarelativistic (megaelectron volt) electrons via cyclotron‐resonant interactions, these waves are also of the right frequency to resonate with the bounce motion of lower‐energy (approximately tens to hundreds of kiloelectron volts) electrons. Here we investigate the effectiveness of this bounce resonance interaction to better determine the effects of EMIC waves on subrelativistic electron populations in Earth's inner magnetosphere. Using wave and plasma parameters directly measured by the Van Allen Probes, we estimate bounce resonance diffusion coefficients for four different events, illustrative of wave and plasma parameters to be encountered in the inner magnetosphere. The range of electron energies and pitch angles affected is examined to better assess the realistic effects of EMIC‐driven bounce resonance on energetic electron populations based on actual, locally observed event‐based parameters. Significant local diffusion coefficients (~ > 10(exp −6) s(exp −1)) for 50‐ to 100‐keV electrons are achieved for both H+ band wave events as well as He+ band, with diffusion coefficients peaking for near‐90° pitch angles but remaining elevated for intermediate ones as well. Diffusion coefficients for higher‐energy 200‐keV electrons are typically multiple orders of magnitude lower (ranging from 10(exp −11) to 10(exp −6) s(exp −1)) and often peak at lower pitch angles (~20–30°). These results suggest that both H+ and He+ band EMIC waves can play a role in shaping lower‐energy electron dynamics via bounce‐resonant interactions, in addition to their role in relativistic electron loss via cyclotron resonance.

Blum, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter Using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors

We estimated global fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations using information from satellite-, simulation- and monitor-based sources by applying a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to global geophysically-based satellite-derived PM(sub 2.5) estimates. Aerosol optical depth from multiple satellite products (MISR, MODIS Dark Target, MODIS and SeaWiFS Deep Blue, and MODIS MAIAC) was combined with simulation (GEOS-Chem) based upon their relative uncertainties as determined using ground-based sun photometer (AERONET) observations for 1998−2014. The GWR predictors included simulated aerosol composition and land use information. The resultant PM(sub 2.5) estimates were highly consistent (R(sup 2) equals 0.81) with out-of-sample cross-validated PM(sub 2.5) concentrations from monitors. The global population-weighted annual average PM(sub 2.5) concentrations were 3-fold higher than the 10 micrograms per cubic meter WHO guideline, driven by exposures in Asian and African regions. Estimates in regions with high contributions from mineral dust were associated with higher uncertainty, resulting from both sparse ground-based monitoring, and challenging conditions for retrieval and simulation. This approach demonstrates that the addition of even sparse ground-based measurements to more globally continuous PM(sub 2.5) data sources can yield valuable improvements to PM(sub 2.5) characterization on a global scale.

aerosols↗