Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Politics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Community Needs and Desires

This panel exchange is focused on the Integration Test phase within the development lifecycle with special emphasis and dedicated discussion on integration and testing of complex systems. Layout and scheduling of integration tasks come from the verification of interface and performance requirements. However, planning for integration activities of complex systems is inherently different from traditional systems engineering integration planning activities. Decisions about the systems under development have to consider not only the technical and programmatic viewpoints but also the political, societal, operational, and economic viewpoints. Definition of performance measures, found intrinsic in the plan, with trans-disciplinary implications will be discussed. A scenario of integration of UAS in the NAS will be used as a benchmark of current views and lifecycle challenges.

Murphy, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Better Tracking and Management

The global airline industry continued to grow in 2014, with profits projected to expand from $12.9 billion in 2013 to $18.7 billion by the end of this year. Key factors driving this increase include continued improvement in overall economic conditions, greater air cargo volumes and stable fuel prices. However, the razor-thin profit margin of 2.5 percent is susceptible to various risks, including the possibility of higher fuel prices due to political crises around the world. In addition, new orders for Airbus and Boeing aircraft are expected to be half of the nearly 3,000 ordered in 2013.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Biosignatures for Life Detection

The goal here is to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in a given space environment rather than on their detection, which depends on the current state of technology. Suitable evaluation procedures are based on an extensive body of previous work on related problems in which different options are evaluated to make decisions in business, engineering, medical fields and social or political arena. In these cases, three approaches have proven to be particularly useful. Two of them, signal detection theory (SDT) and Bayesian hypothesis testing are based on probabilities. The third approach, multi-attribute utility (MAU) is based on utility theory.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2019

Space Research Project Management Can Benefit from Engineering Technology Selection Methods

Many engineering methods have been developed to help management select technology for a system design or further research. The simplest way to compare technologies is to use a checklist containing all the more or less important selection criteria, so that nothing is overlooked. The criteria usually include cost, safety, reliability and maintainability, and potential problems such as noise generation and microgravity sensitivity. The next step typically is to weight and score all the criteria. The process of weighting and scoring is helpful in bringing out different priorities and reaching a shared point of view. Group technology selection methods are designed to highlight initial disagreements and produce a shared consensus. Often a frank discussion led by management rather than decision analysts can be more effective. The final selection depends on management and engineering judgment and may include programmatic and organizational factors that are beyond the engineering checklist. The objective of engineering technology selection methods is to provide engineering information to assist management in making sound decisions. Project management and technology selection are assumed to use rational engineering analytic methods, but they often do not. The reason is that human insight, intuition, and “gut feel,” rather than logic, more frequently determine our decisions. Project selection and management are strongly influenced by nonrational psychological influences, which can produce unjustified confidence and determination. Nevertheless, there is a strong need for space projects to do rational project analysis and selection. Demonstrating a rational spirit is necessary for a scientific and technical organization. Professional ethics at its best requires an open, honest, and fair process, without damaging politics. Rational analysis can help improve good projects and avoid selecting bad ones. A sanity check using rational analysis guided by a checklist can help avoid egregious and damaging errors.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Synthetic Biology off Planet for Game-Changing Solutions for a Greener Earth

Synthetic biology – creating new capabilities with life – promises to create a greener future for planet Earth, from fields as diverse as pharmaceuticals to manufacturing, agriculture and nanotechnology. Progress can be stymied by such considerations as economics, politics, legal and philosophical issues surrounding GMOs. Often solutions to these problems already exist, so it is difficult for a new, superior method to displace the old. As we move humans beyond Earth, to long duration stays in the International Space Station, and then onward to the Moon and Mars, the challenges of supporting human life will need radical new solutions. While there are new constraints, such as worrying about the mass of a solution, constraints offer opportunities for game-changing solutions that will then allow revolutions back on our home planet.

Rothschild, Lynn J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surviving and Thriving in Space and on Earth's Oceans - Human Logistics and Sustainability Comparisons and Considerations

The human species has a yearning for exploration as evidenced by the extensive historical ocean voyages and expeditions which have led to a massive advancement in the scientific and geodetic knowledge about planet Earth. These global explorations via the oceans have also had strategic, economic, cultural and religious implications and impacts, which have drastically changed the state of humanity and its condition. The transportation network created by ships traveling across the oceans has been supplemented by other transportation networks on land and in the air, creating a global economy that, in general, has improved the human condition leading to better health, longer lives, lower child mortality, better education, political freedom, higher gross national product (GNP) and improved hygiene. The logical extension of this societal trend is to extend the transportation network and human civilization into outer space, beyond the cradle of planet Earth. Our solar system contains vast amounts of natural resources which can be harnessed and used to bootstrap a space economy and related infrastructure by using advanced technologies. Sailing journeys from hundreds of years ago required large vessels and large crews, (in comparison with today’s space capsules). Modern sailors of today are able to complete large voyages, in small vessels, with a minimal crew, comparable in magnitude to modern space travel. This paper will use a systems engineering approach (e.g. using the NASA Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH), NASA-SP-2010-3407, 2010 and the “Advanced Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document, (BVAD)” NASA-CR-2004-208941, 2004.), to examine and compare the logistics and sustainability aspects of a small crew traveling on Earth's oceans in sailing vessels versus humans traveling in space. The “Mālama Honua Worldwide Voyage” of the Hokule’a, a replica of an ancient Hawaiian double hulled sailing canoe, will be used as a case study. This is the best comparison case since the Polynesian exploration of the vast (and virtually empty) Pacific Ocean is the closest analogue to modern space travel. “"Both are voyages of exploration.” –Shuttle astronaut Lacy Veach. Minimizing waste and maximizing re-use and re-cycling will lead to more efficient logistics and sustainability. In addition, In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) strategies, based on successful Earth based strategies used for many years by sailors will be considered and evaluated for their usefulness. For example, human logistics for a typical space mission are shown in Table 1 and Table 2 (Lopez et al, 2015). Studies show that typical human water consumption in space is projected to be 3.2 kg/day per crew member as shown in Table 2. Data from human sailing voyages around the globe will be examined. Anecdotal evidence indicates that knowledgeable and well-equipped modern sailors, who conserve water, can comfortably live using 1.5 to 5 kg/day per person. This paper will investigate key logistics and sustainability aspects of living in space and compare them quantitatively to similar aspects of living on ocean faring sailing vessels on Earth. Mutually beneficial observations, advanced technologies and modern considerations will be applied within confines of a remote sailing environment, which could be of immense value to both the space faring community and the ocean sailing community.

Space↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Vision and A More Rational Process Will Advance Space Life Support Through Better Projects

Many space life support assumptions are obviously mistaken but they are generally accepted because they mutually support each other and because they advance a mistaken futuristic vision of closed human ecosystems in space. Many projects have been mistakenly selected to increase life support system closure or reduce launch mass in order to implement this impractical vision. Project members rarely challenge their project’s assumptions and guiding vision. Systems engineering including cost, reliability, risk, and system trade-offs has been very strongly discouraged to prevent rational criticism of these dubious assumptions, the projects, and the ecosystem vision. A more realistic vision can define better near term life support goals and future aspirations that will improve mission support and increase public interest. Given more realistic goals, it will be possible to develop effective technical alternatives, use open rational project selection methods, conduct professional project management, and make swifter progress in the inevitable human advance into space. The current unworkable human space settlement scenario involves moon visits and permanent bases, zero gravity trips to Mars, Mars visits and bases, all leading to extensive human settlements on the moon and Mars. This is unrealistic because the moon and Mars have less than Earth normal gravity and high radiation that can seriously damage human health. A better alternative would use rotating space colonies that produce Earth gravity and are radiation shielded. The attractive fantasy of reproducing terrestrial ecology in space should be replaced by the idea of building a closed system based on advancing technology such as artificial photosynthesis. Past mistaken projects include growing plants for food to replicate terrestrial food sources, recovering small amounts of water from difficult to process waste to achieve high system closure, and using newly designed, lighter, but unreliable hardware to reduce launch mass. The political process supporting the false assumptions, projects, and vision has deliberately prevented the usual systems engineering and cost-benefit analysis. We are going to do much better.

Harry W. Jones↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ORACLES: Optimized Rational Algorithm for Conjecture of Long-term Exploration of Space

ORACLES is a joint venture between the United States Space Force (USSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to develop a model for future space exploration, commercialization, and expansion. Following the success of qualitative future scenario exploration during the Space Futures Workshops (SFW), ORACLES aims to produce a quantitative means of evaluating these same factors. This model considers the social, economic, and political environment and determines possible inflection points; that is, the most crucial investments in technologies, infrastructure, and policy for the support and protection of U.S. and allied space assets. The development of ORACLES is in its infancy, with front end interfaces constructed for discussion and debate before the overall algorithm is finalized. Comments are highly encouraged as the team wishes to gain the broadest level of perspectives before continuing with development.

Robert B Adams↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Metrics in Space Life Support Technology Selection

Engineering metrics are useful in space life support technology selection, but they must be carefully used. Metrics are only part of a complete system trade-off. Metrics do harm if they cause neglect of other important technical, organizational, or intuitive decision factors. Two metrics have damaged space life support, closure and Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM). Closure measures the fraction of the required system inputs that are produced by recycling system outputs. Increasing closure produces diminishing returns and becomes increasingly expensive. Increasing closure does not directly contribute to providing better life support. ESM measures the total launch mass required to provide life support. ESM includes the mass of the system hardware and of its power, cooling, pressurized volume, spares, and logistics. ESM predicts launch costs, but recently launch costs have been reduced by a factor of 20 or more. System development cost for space hardware is often much greater than launch cost. The past nearly exclusive use of ESM has led to the neglect of Life Cycle Cost (LCC), reliability, cost, and the other engineering factors. Closure and ESM have misguided space life support technology selection for more than twenty years and have adversely affected the expenditure of 100’s of millions of dollars. Metrics can be effectively used three ways in space life support technology selection: 1. A small set of key engineering metrics for preliminary screening. 2. A full set of engineering to guide technical selection. 3. Combining engineering metrics with organizational, political, and intuitive decision factors to understand technology selection. The past emphasis on closure and ESM served to support recycling life support over resupply and built on the intuitive appeal of a human ecosystem in space.

Harry W Jones↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗
NASA NTRS2007

Some algorithms for polygons on a sphere.

A limited search for polygon algorithms for use in a new military training simulation that interfaces with several others produced only planar algorithms. To avoid having to implement several different sophisticated map projections to guarantee compatibility with all the other simulations, we opted to develop algorithms that work directly on a sphere. The first is an algorithm to compute the area of a polygon whose edges are segments of great circles. Since our model represents certain object locations as mathematical points, the second topic is whether a specified point is inside a specified polygon. Possibly pathological cases are identified and eliminated. When we realized that most political boundaries are actually rhumb lines, use of the Mercator projection equations seemed unavoidable. We then reasoned that if all the edges were short enough, lat-lon lines, great circle segments, and rhumb lines would be close enough to being identical that we could use whichever was most convenient. Thence, we looked at the relationship between the maximum distances between great circle segments and rhumb lines and between lat-lon lines and rhumb lines as functions of length, azimuth, and latitude. The final algorithm finds the area overlapped by two polygons. Again, potentially pathological cases are identified and eliminated.

Duquette, William H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effective Use of Metrics in Space Life Support System Trade-Offs

Engineering metrics are useful in space life support technology selection, but they must be carefully used. Metrics are only part of a complete system trade-off. Metrics do harm if they cause neglect of other important technical, organizational, or intuitive decision factors. Two metrics have damaged space life support, closure and Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM). Closure measures the fraction of the required system inputs that are produced by recycling system outputs. Increasing closure produces diminishing returns and becomes increasingly expensive. Increasing closure does not directly contribute to providing better life support. ESM measures the total launch mass required to provide life support. ESM includes the mass of the system hardware and of its power, cooling, pressurized volume, spares, and logistics. ESM predicts launch costs, but recently launch costs have been reduced by a factor of 20 or more. System development cost for space hardware is often much greater than launch cost. The past nearly exclusive use of ESM has led to the neglect of Life Cycle Cost (LCC), reliability, cost, and the other engineering factors. Closure and ESM have misguided space life support technology selection for more than twenty years and have adversely affected the expenditure of 100’s of millions of dollars. Metrics can be effectively used three ways in space life support technology selection: 1. A small set of key engineering metrics for preliminary screening. 2. A full set of engineering to guide technical selection. 3. Combining engineering metrics with organizational, political, and intuitive decision factors to understand technology selection. The past emphasis on closure and ESM served to support recycling life support over resupply and built on the intuitive appeal of a human ecosystem in space.

Harry W. Jones↗
NASA NTRS2021

Prospective Futures of Distance Education

Society is in the midst of IT, Bio, Nano, Quantum and Energetics Technology Revolutions, which have changed and are changing econometrics, national security, health, transportation, shopping, travel, cost of living, socialization, commerce, employment, and education. We are now beyond the Industrial Age, are in the IT Age and heading rapidly into the Virtual Age.In that process we are changing from physical activities to virtual activities, developing and embracing tele-everything including tele-commuting, tele-work, tele-travel, tele-education, tele-shopping, tele-medicine, tele-commerce, tele-socialization, tele-politics and with on-site printing manufacture, tele-manufacturing. The gig economy, largely on the web and operated virtually, is a large and increasing portion of the national economy. Tele-everything took a great leap forward during the COVID pandemic response

Dennis M. Bushnell↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic biology off planet for game-changing solutions for a greener Earth

Synthetic biology – creating new capabilities with life – promises to create a greener future for planet Earth, from fields as diverse as pharmaceuticals to manufacturing, agriculture and nanotechnology. Progress can be stymied by such considerations as economics, politics, legal and philosophical issues surrounding GMOs. Often solutions to these problems already exist, so it is difficult for a new, superior method to displace the old. As we move humans beyond Earth, to long duration stays in the International Space Station, and then onward to the Moon and Mars, the challenges of supporting human life will need radical new solutions. For example, while life on Earth uses an enzymatic machinery which evolved close to 3 billion years ago, synthetic biology promises to be able to engineer the systems to adapt to current natural or industrial environments. A focus on solutions off planet require a focus on a circular economy. While there are new constraints, such as worrying about the mass of a solution, constraints offer opportunities for game-changing solutions that will then allow revolutions back on our home planet.

Lynn J Rothschild↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Geodetic and Positioning Thematic Layer - Identifying tools to connect the GGRF and IGIF

Effective and sustainable modernization of a nation’s geodetic framework relies on the ability of the relevant organizations and other stakeholders to communicate, integrate, and align both their strategic objectives and operational planning with the United Nations Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (UN GGIM) Sub-Committee on Geodesy’s (SCoG) roadmap for a Global Geodetic Reference Frame (GGRF) for Sustainable Development. In addition, to implement geodetic modernization initiatives through multiple government agencies, a holistic country action plan (CAP) for geospatial information management must incorporate pertinent geodetic outcomes and outputs. Presently, the CAP framework and principles used by nations is the UN GGIM Integrated Geospatial Information Framework (IGIF). From engagement with geospatial and survey communities across emerging nations in the Asia Pacific region, it is evident more assistance and coordination is necessary to articulate, integrate and connect geodetic organizational strategies with the requirements of the GGRF roadmap; the strategic pathways of the IGIF; and resourcing for a meaningful and relevant multi-faceted CAP. One of the supporting mechanisms for such planning or preparation, which representatives of the International Federation of Surveyors (FIG) Asia Pacific Capacity Development Network (AP CDN) and the UN SCoG Education, Training and Capacity Building (ETCB) working group are considering, is a policy framework and guide for a “Geodetic and Positioning Thematic Layer” (GPTL). Essentially, this “thematic layer”, in terms of the GGRF and IGIF, aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of, and a toolbox for, the “why, what, how, and who” of geodesy and positioning. This discussion paper will provide background and insights for a GPTL dedicated to recognizing, and aligning the geodetic capacity development needs with broader geospatial information management issues and applications. The paper will also outline a rigorous, participatory, and inclusive consultation process for the design and development of a thematic layer. Furthermore, as the intention of the authors is to prepare a forthcoming “white paper” that will concisely describe the issues of a GPTL and initiatives for an appropriate guide and/or policy framework, this paper will seek feedback on: the potential scientific, social, environmental and political benefits of modernizing geodetic infrastructure and systems; the challenges associated with the GGRF roadmap; leveraging the geodesy-relevant elements of each IGIF strategic pathway; the importance of collaborative efforts; and the capacity development needs and resources in relation to governance, technology and people.

SARIB, Rob↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going South: Warnings from the Largest Project Engineering Failure in Modern History

NASA’s successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America’s gift “for all Mankind.” NASA’s Artemis Program to return humanity to the Moon promises to again reveal America’s leadership in this field. In preparation for the initiation of Artemis and its predecessor project Constellation, NASA thoroughly examined space program precedents. There remains, however, another relevant precedent which has not been examined in this context. Though this project involved technology radically different from that managed by NASA, its scope and environment in many ways parallel NASA’s large programs. This project was initiated by a private sector team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $275 billion (in 2021 USD), had stimulated new technology, had brought economic growth, had established their country as the world leader in engineering innovation, and, though it was a commercial success, had been broadly accepted as their nation’s gift “to all Mankind.” The new project was inspired by popular belief that private capital could again be marshalled to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to the progress of Humanity. This new effort was predicted to require eight years and $258 billion. However, after the passage of nine years, achievement of only 45% complete on the baseline design, and expenditures 96% beyond the baseline cost, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. While the private sector team that carried out this project was exceptionally well educated and experienced in the field, their efforts resulted in what remains (in terms of the money wasted) the largest project engineering failure in modern history. This paper examines what went wrong.

Project Management↗
NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗