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At least 577 records · Page 32

The spread of technological innovations: effects of psychology, culture and policy interventions

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Pareto Efficient Policy for Supervisory Power Management Control

n this paper we address the problem of online optimization of the supervisory power management control in parallel hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). We model HEV opera- tion as a controlled Markov chain using the long-run expected average cost per unit time criterion, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion online. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is validated through simulation and compared to the solution derived with dynamic programming using the average cost criterion.

Markov chain↗

Improved microgrid resiliency through distributionally robust optimization under a policy-mode framework

Critical energy infrastructure are constantly under stress due to the ever increasing disruptions caused by wildfires, hurricanes, other weather related extreme events and cyber-attacks. Hence it becomes important to make critical infrastructure resilient to threats from such cyber-physical events. However, such events are hard to predict and numerous in nature and type and it becomes infeasible to make a system resilient to every possible such cyber-physical event. Such an approach can make the system operation overly conservative and impractical to operate. Furthermore, distributions of such events are hard to predict and historical data available on such events can be very sparse, making the problem even harder to solve. To deal with these issues, in this paper we present a policy-mode framework that enumerates and predicts the probability of various cyber-physical events and then a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation that is robust to the sparsity of the available historical data. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on an islanded microgrid example: a modified IEEE 123-node feeder with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage. Simulations are carried to validate the resiliency metrics under the sampled disruption events.

Nazir, Mohammad Nawaf↗

Enforcing End-to-end I/O Policies for Scientific Workflows using Software-Defined Storage Resource Enclaves

Data-intensive knowledge discovery requires scientific applications to run concurrently with analytics and visualization codes executing in situ for timely output inspection and knowledge extraction. Consequently, I/O pipelines of scientific workflows can be long and complex because they comprise many stages of analytics across different layers of the I/O stack of high-performance computing systems. Performance limitations at any I/O layer or stage can cause an I/O bottleneck resulting in greater than expected end-to-end I/O latency. In this paper, we present the design and implementation of a novel data management infrastructure called Software-Defined Storage Resource Enclaves (SIREN) at system level to enforce end-to-end policies that dictate an I/O pipeline's performance. SIREN provides an I/O performance interface for users to specify the desired storage resources in the context of in-situ analytics. If suboptimal performance of analytics is caused by an I/O bottleneck when data are transferred between simulations and analytics, schedulers in different layers of the I/O stack automatically provide the guaranteed lower bounds on I/O throughput. Lastly, our experimental results demonstrate that SIREN provides performance isolation among scientific workflows sharing multiple storage servers across two I/O layers (burst buffer and parallel file systems) while maintaining high system scalability and resource utilization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Abstract Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making.

Holmquist, James R.↗

Bridging the Gap: User-Centric Energy Monitoring for Policy-Driven Application Optimization in HPC Data Centers

Application energy optimization in HPC data centers face two critical gaps. Systematic methodologies that connect data center policies to application decisions and accessible monitoring tools that enable data-driven optimization. We address both gaps through two complementary pillars. First, we present a methodology based on extended weighted Energy Delay Product (EDP) to translate data center operational priorities and integrate energy considerations into the energy optimization workflow which starts from continuous monitoring through targeted optimization. Second, we present a user-space monitoring tool, Omnistat, that enables this methodology by providing developers with direct access to actionable energy telemetry. Through deployment on the Frontier supercomputer and case studies exploring performance-energy trade-offs, we show how these pillars help energy as an integral optimization target for developers as active participants in data center efficiency.

Shin, Woong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000172077814)↗

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer cases and deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. To perform these two comparisons, we used a matching procedure designed to create well-balanced groups of counties that are aligned as much as possible along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories—demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts—a state with especially high detail in our dataset—which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in a pre-vaccine environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Market and policy barriers to energy storage deployment :

Electric energy storage technologies have recently been in the spotlight, discussed as essential grid assets that can provide services to increase the reliability and resiliency of the grid, including furthering the integration of variable renewable energy resources. Though they can provide numerous grid services, there are a number of factors that restrict their current deployment. The most significant barrier to deployment is high capital costs, though several recent deployments indicate that capital costs are decreasing and energy storage may be the preferred economic alternative in certain situations. However, a number of other market and regulatory barriers persist, limiting further deployment. These barriers can be categorized into regulatory barriers, market (economic) barriers, utility and developer business model barriers, cross cutting barriers and technology barriers. This report, through interviews with stakeholders and review of regulatory filings in four regions roughly representative of the United States, identifies the key barriers restricting further energy storage development in the country. The report also includes a discussion of possible solutions to address these barriers and a review of initiatives around the country at the federal, regional and state levels that are addressing some of these issues. Energy storage could have a key role to play in the future grid, but market and regulatory issues have to be addressed to allow storage resources open market access and compensation for the services they are capable of providing. Progress has been made in this effort, but much remains to be done and will require continued engagement from regulators, policy makers, market operators, utilities, developers and manufacturers.

Bhatnagar, Dhruv↗

Policy Analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Experience

For those who support U.S. oil sands development, the Canadian oil sands industry is often identified as a model the U.S. might emulate, yielding financial and energy security benefits. For opponents of domestic oil sands development, the Canadian oil sands experience illustrates the risks that opponents of development believe should deter domestic policymakers from incenting U.S. oil sands development. This report does not seek to evaluate the particular underpinnings of either side of this policy argument, but rather attempts to delve into the question of whether the Canadian experience has relevance as a foundational model for U.S. oil sands development. More specifically, this report seeks to assess whether and how the Canadian oil sands experience might be predictive or instructive in the context of fashioning a framework for a U.S. oil sands industry. In evaluating the implications of these underpinnings for a prospective U.S. oil sands industry, this report concentrates on prospective development of the oil sands deposits found in Utah.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Impacts Analyses Supporting the National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Assessment for the Resumption of Transient Testing Program

Environmental and health impacts are presented for activities associated with transient testing of nuclear fuel and material using two candidate test reactors. Transient testing involves irradiation of nuclear fuel or materials for short time-periods under high neutron flux rates. The transient testing process includes transportation of nuclear fuel or materials inside a robust shipping cask to a hot cell, removal from the shipping cask, pre-irradiation examination of the nuclear materials, assembly of an experiment assembly, transportation of the experiment assembly to the test reactor, irradiation in the test reactor, transport back to the hot cell, and post-irradiation examination of the nuclear fuel or material. The potential for environmental or health consequences during the transportation, examination, and irradiation actions are assessed for normal operations, off-normal (accident) scenarios, and transportation. Impacts to the environment (air, soil, and groundwater), are assessed during each phase of the transient testing process. This report documents the evaluation of potential consequences to the general public. This document supports the Environmental Assessment (EA) required by the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) (42 USC Subsection 4321 et seq.).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Environmental Policy Act Hazards Assessment for the TREAT Alternative

This document provides an assessment of hazards as required by the National Environmental Policy Act for the alternative of restarting the reactor at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility by the Resumption of Transient Testing Program. Potential hazards have been identified and screening level calculations have been conducted to provide estimates of unmitigated dose consequences that could be incurred through this alternative. Consequences considered include those related to use of the TREAT Reactor, experiment assembly handling, and combined events involving both the reactor and experiments. In addition, potential safety structures, systems, and components for processes associated with operating TREAT and onsite handling of nuclear fuels and experiments are listed. If this alternative is selected, a safety basis will be prepared in accordance with 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” Subpart B, “Safety Basis Requirements.”

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

National Environmental Policy Act Hazards Assessment for the TREAT Alternative

This document provides an assessment of hazards as required by the National Environmental Policy Act for the alternative of restarting the reactor at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility by the Resumption of Transient Testing Program. Potential hazards have been identified and screening level calculations have been conducted to provide estimates of unmitigated dose consequences that could be incurred through this alternative. Consequences considered include those related to use of the TREAT Reactor, experiment assembly handling, and combined events involving both the reactor and experiments. In addition, potential safety structures, systems, and components for processes associated with operating TREAT and onsite handling of nuclear fuels and experiments are listed. If this alternative is selected, a safety basis will be prepared in accordance with 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” Subpart B, “Safety Basis Requirements.”

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Water Use in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): Geology of U.S. Stimulation Projects, Water Costs, and Alternative Water Source Policies

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), geothermal energy generation in the United States is projected to more than triple by 2040 (EIA 2013). This addition, which translates to more than 5 GW of generation capacity, is anticipated because of technological advances and an increase in available sources through the continued development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) and low-temperature resources (EIA 2013). Studies have shown that air emissions, water consumption, and land use for geothermal electricity generation have less of an impact than traditional fossil fuel–based electricity generation; however, the long-term sustainability of geothermal power plants can be affected by insufficient replacement of aboveground or belowground operational fluid losses resulting from normal operations (Schroeder et al. 2014). Thus, access to water is therefore critical for increased deployment of EGS technologies and, therefore, growth of the geothermal sector. This paper examines water issues relating to EGS development from a variety of perspectives. It starts by exploring the relationship between EGS site geology, stimulation protocols, and below ground water loss, which is one of the largest drivers of water consumption for EGS projects. It then examines the relative costs of different potential traditional and alternative water sources for EGS. Finally it summarizes specific state policies relevant to the use of alternative water sources for EGS, and finally explores the relationship between EGS site geology, stimulation protocols, and below ground water loss, which is one of the largest drivers of water consumption for EGS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗