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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Inducing Mineral Precipitation in Groundwater by Addition of Phosphate

Induced precipitation of phosphate minerals to scavenge trace metals and radionuclides from groundwater is a potential remediation approach for contaminated aquifers. Phosphate minerals can sequester trace elements by primary mineral formation, solid solution formation and/or adsorption, and they are poorly soluble under many environmental conditions, making them attractive for long-term sustainable remediation. The success of such engineered schemes will depend on the particular mineral phases generated, their rates of formation, and their long term stability. The purpose of this study was to examine the precipitation of calcium phosphate minerals under conditions representative of a natural groundwater. Because microorganisms are present in groundwater, and because some proposed schemes for induced phosphate mineral precipitation rely on the stimulation of native groundwater populations, we also tested the effect of bacterial cells (initial densities of 105 and 107 ml-1) within the precipitation medium. We also tested the effect of a trace mixture of propionic, isovaleric, formic and butyric acids (total concentration 0.035 mM). The experiments showed that the general progression of mineral precipitation was similar under all of the conditions, with initial formation of amorphous calcium carbonate, and transformation to poorly crystalline hydroxyapatite (HAP) by the end of the week-long experiments. The presence of the bacterial cells appeared to delay precipitation, although by the end of 7 days the overall extent of precipitation was similar for all of the treatments. The stoichiometry of the final precipitates as well as results of Rietveld refinement of x-ray diffraction data indicated that the treatments including organic acids and bacterial cells resulted in increased distortion of the HAP crystal lattice, with the higher concentration of cells resulting in the greatest distortion. Uptake of Sr into the phosphate minerals was decreased in the treatments with cells and organic acids, compared to the control. The results of the experiments enable a greater understanding of the challenges associated with phosphate-based remediation schemes for contaminated environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

CaCO 3 Precipitation, Transport and Sensing in Porous Media with In Situ Generation of Reactants

Ureolytically driven calcite precipitation is a promising approach for inducing subsurface mineral precipitation, but engineered application requires the ability to control and predict precipitate distribution. To study the coupling between reactant transport and precipitate distribution, columns with defined zones of immobilized urease were used to examine the distribution of calcium carbonate precipitation along the flow path, at two different initial flow rates. As expected, with slower flow precipitate was concentrated toward the upstream end of the enzyme zone and with higher flow the solid was more uniformly distributed over the enzyme zone. Under constant hydraulic head conditions the flow rate decreased as precipitates decreased porosity and permeability. The hydrolysis/precipitation zone was expected to become compressed in the upstream direction. However, apparent reductions in the urea hydrolysis rate and changes in the distribution of enzyme activity, possibly due to CaCO 3 precipitate hindering urea transport to the enzyme, or enzyme mobilization, mitigated reaction zone compression. Co-injected strontium was expected to be sequestered by coprecipitation with CaCO 3 , but the results suggested that coprecipitation was not an effective sequestration mechanism in this system. In addition, spectral induced polarization (SIP) was used to monitor the spatial and temporal evolution of the reaction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Precipitation over the U.S. Coastal Land/Water Using Gauge-Corrected Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System and Three Satellite Products

The weather and climate over the coastal regions have received increasing attention because of substantial population growth, the rising sea level, and extreme weather. Satellite remote sensing provides global precipitation estimates (including coastal land/ocean). While these datasets have been extensively evaluated over land, they have rarely been assessed over coastal ocean. As precipitation radars cover both coastal land and ocean, we used the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) gauge-corrected precipitation product from 2018 to 2020 to evaluate three widely used satellite-based precipitation products over the U.S. coastal land versus the ocean (and the water over the Great Lakes). These products included the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). The MRMS data showed a precipitation climatology difference between the coastal land and the ocean that was higher in the winter and lower in the summer and autumn. IMERG and CMORPH performed best over land and water, respectively, while PERSIANN was the most consistent in its performance over land versus water. Heavy precipitation was overestimated by the three products, with larger overestimates over water than over land. These results were not affected by the MRMS uncertainties due to the gauge correction or by the use of different versions.

coastal precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2015

Model performance in spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation: New methods for identifying value added by a regional climate model: Value added by a regional climate model

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, and time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Detectability of historical trends in station‐based precipitation characteristics over the continental United States

Abstract The goal of this paper is to detect secular trends in observed, station‐based precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. By definition, detectable trends are those that are unlikely to have arisen from internal variability alone. To represent this internal variability, we use station‐specific, seasonally varying, daily time scale stationary stochastic weather models—models in which the simulated interannual‐to‐multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—to first estimate the trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed, climatological daily precipitation characteristics. Detection of secular trends in the observed climate—whether naturally or anthropogenically induced—can then be defined relative to this stochastic variability, i.e., as trends in the means and/or extremes that are likely to have occurred only through a change in the underlying precipitation characteristics. The derived results have two important ramifications. First, they identify “hot spot” regions in which trends in precipitation characteristics are already emerging from within the envelope of stochastic variability, including (but not limited to) positive trends in annual occurrence across most of the U.S. and positive trends in annual intensity and heavy‐event accumulations across the Interior Plains and around the Great Lakes. Further, they identify “sentinel” metrics which show the greatest detectability—e.g., annual precipitation occurrence and intensity—as well as those which show the least detectability and hence are unlikely to produce any statistically meaningful signals—e.g., seasonal total precipitation and extremes.

Anderson, Bruce T.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the column PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Projected precipitation changes within the Great Lakes and Western Lake Erie Basin: a multi‐model analysis of intensity and seasonality

ABSTRACT The Great Lakes region encompasses the largest freshwater lake network in the world and supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation, and tourism. Recently, Lake Erie has experienced increased hypoxia events, which have been attributed to agricultural practices and changes in run‐off. Here we examine the projected changes in extreme precipitation events to address concerns regarding regional agriculture, surface run‐off, and subsequent water quality. Precipitation projections within the overall Great Lakes Basin and the Western Lake Erie Basin subregion are examined using climate model simulations of varying spatial resolutions to understand historical precipitation and projected future precipitation. We develop three model ensembles for the historical period (1980–1999) and the mid‐century (2041–2060) that cover a range of spatial resolutions and future emissions scenarios, including: (1) 12 global model members from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP5 ) using Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 8.5, (2) ten regional climate model ( RCM ) members from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program driven by CMIP3 global models using the A2 emissions scenario, and (3) two high resolution RCM simulations ( RCM4 ) driven by CMIP5 global models using the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the historical period, all model ensembles overestimate winter and spring precipitation, and many of the models simulate a summer drying that is not observed. At mid‐century, most of the models predict a 10–20% increase in precipitation depending on the time of year. Daily probability distribution functions from three model ensembles reveal spring seasonal increases in high precipitation event probabilities when compared to the historical period, suggesting an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. Overall, the presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of historical processes, and more complex interactions between large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.

Basile, Samantha J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Microstructural evolution of single Ni 2 TiAl or hierarchical NiAl/Ni 2 TiAl precipitates in Fe-Ni-Al-Cr-Ti ferritic alloys during thermal treatment for elevated-temperature applications

Precipitate features, such as the size, morphology, and distribution, are important parameters determining the mechanical properties of semi- or fully-coherent precipitatehardened alloys at elevated temperatures. In this study, the microstructural formation and evolution of recently-developed Fe-Ni-Al-Cr-Ti alloys with superior creep resistance have been systematically investigated using transmission-electron microscopy (TEM), scanning-electron microscopy (SEM), and atom-probe tomography (APT). These alloys were designed by adding 2 or 4 weight percent (wt. %) Ti into a NiAl-hardened ferritic alloy with a nominal composition of Fe-6.5Al-10Cr-10Ni-3.4Mo-0.25Zr-0.005B in wt. %. These alloys were, then, subjected to a homogenization treatment at 1,473 K for 0.5 hour, followed by aging treatments at 973 K for 1 ~ 500 hours. In the homogenization-treated case, both alloys contain a primary L21-type Ni 2 TiAl precipitate, but with the distinct size and morphology of the precipitates and precipitate/matrix interface structures. In the subsequent aging treatments, the 2 wt. % Ti alloy establishes a hierarchical-precipitate structure consisting of a fine network of a B2-type NiAl phase within the parent L2 1 -type Ni2TiAl precipitate, while the 4 wt. % Ti alloy retains the single Ni 2 TiAl precipitate. It was found that the hierarchical structure is more effective in remaining the coherent interface during the growth/coarsening of the precipitate. The formation of the different types of the precipitates, and their effects on the microstructural evolution are discussed, and the driving forces for these features are identified from the competition between the interface energy and elastic interactions due to the lattice misfit and misfit dislocations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal variability of tritium in precipitation within South Africa and it's bearing on hydrological studies

Tritium, the radioactive isotope of hydrogen, has been used to understand groundwater recharge processes for decades. The current variation of tritium in the atmosphere is largely attributed to stratospheric production and fall out rates as well as global circulation phenomena controlling the hydrological cycle. Global controls on the variability in atmospheric tritium activity are poorly suited to explain local variation and tritium activities in precipitation are often assumed to be uniform over both local and regional catchments and watersheds. This assumption can result in both over and under estimation of modern recharge within an aquifer when using tritium as the recharge proxy. In order to minimize the inherent prediction residuals associated with tritium based recharge investigations, the variability of tritium in precipitation was modelled from 127 spatial precipitation samples taken over a two year period, combined with a 76 precipitation sample group-set taken over a one year period in a single location. Precipitation events were traced backward in time, from the point of collection, using HYSPLIT modelling to ascertain the origins of moisture content as well as the altitudes of moisture origin reached along the particle track. Tritium activities, collected over a one year period in Paarl, range from 0.45 to 4.16 TU and have a mean of 1.59 TU. Spatial storm events in the Western Cape in 2017 and 2018 had a range from 0 to 2.2 and 0.37 to 3.27 TU, respectively, with mean activities of 1.18 (n = 34) and 1.25 TU (n = 32). Both storm events had similar tritium variability (σ = 0.5 n = 35 and 0.48 n = 32). Regional precipitation events had the largest range of tritium activities (0.55–12.2 TU). Although not all tritium activities can be explained by interrogating the water mass origin, this study suggests that approximately 90% of events can be completely or partially attributed to the origin of the water mass. The variability of tritium, both spatially and temporally, was higher than expected, confirming that when uniform tritium inputs are used, the groundwater system would provide inaccurate modern recharge estimates. Higher spatial resolution of tritium variation in precipitation for a particular region will improve our ability to relate tritium activities in groundwater to local precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Recovery of yttrium from fluorescent powder of cathode ray tube, CRT: Zn removal by sulphide precipitation

Highlights: • Treatment of fluorescent powder of CRT waste. • Factorial experimental designs to study acid leaching of fluorescent powder and the purification of leach liquors. • Recover of yttrium by precipitation using oxalic acid. • Suitable flowsheet to recover yttrium from fluorescent powder. - Abstract: This work is focused on the recovery of yttrium and zinc from fluorescent powder of cathode ray tube (CRT). Metals are extracted by sulphuric acid in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. Leaching tests are carried out according to a 2{sup 2} full factorial plan and the highest extraction yields for yttrium and zinc equal to 100% are observed under the following conditions: 3 M of sulphuric acid, 10% v/v of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} concentrated solution at 30% v/v, 10% w/w pulp density, 70 °C and 3 h of reaction. Two series of precipitation tests for zinc are carried out: a 2{sup 2} full factorial design and a completely randomized factorial design. In these series the factors investigated are pH of solution during the precipitation and the amount of sodium sulphide added to precipitate zinc sulphide. The data of these tests are used to describe two empirical mathematical models for zinc and yttrium precipitation yields by regression analysis. The highest precipitation yields for zinc are obtained under the following conditions: pH equal to 2–2.5% and 10–12% v/v of Na{sub 2}S concentrated solution at 10% w/v. In these conditions the coprecipitation of yttrium is of 15–20%. Finally further yttrium precipitation experiments by oxalic acid on the residual solutions, after removing of zinc, show that yttrium could be recovered and calcined to obtain the final product as yttrium oxide. The achieved results allow to propose a CRT recycling process based on leaching of fluorescent powder from cathode ray tube and recovery of yttrium oxide after removing of zinc by precipitation. The final recovery of yttrium is 75–80%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pore-Scale Analysis of Calcium Carbonate Precipitation and Dissolution Kinetics in a Microfluidic Device

In this work, we have characterized the calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) precipitates over time caused by reaction-driven precipitation and dissolution in a micromodel. Reactive solutions were continuously injected through two separate inlets, resulting in transverse-mixing induced precipitation during the precipitation phase. Subsequently, a dissolution phase was conducted by injecting clean water (pH = 4). The evolution of precipitates was imaged in two and three dimensions (2-, 3-D) at selected times using optical and confocal microscopy. With estimated reactive surface area, effective precipitation and dissolution rates can be quantitatively compared to results in the previous works. Our comparison indicates that we can evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of effective reactive areas more mechanistically in the microfluidic system only with the knowledge of local hydrodynamics, polymorphs, and comprehensive image analysis. Here, our analysis clearly highlights the feedback mechanisms between reactions and hydrodynamics. Pore-scale modeling results during the dissolution phase were used to account for experimental observations of dissolved CaCO 3 plumes with dissolution of the unstable phase of CaCO 3 . Mineral precipitation and dissolution induce complex dynamic pore structures, thereby impacting pore-scale fluid dynamics. Pore-scale analysis of the evolution of precipitates can reveal the significance of chemical and pore structural controls on reaction and fluid migration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

High‐Frequency Intermittency in Observed and Model‐Simulated Precipitation

Abstract A newly reprocessed, bias‐corrected version of hourly satellite observations that provides global coverage of precipitation at high space‐time resolution is evaluated and compared with climate model simulations. Irregular subdaily fluctuations are the dominant component around the world, greater than variance of daily mean precipitation, and much greater than variance associated with the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation. Irregular subdaily fluctuations of precipitation are severely underestimated by models, even after taking into account the observational “error bars” implied by different space‐time resolutions. Variance of daily mean precipitation is less severely underestimated. Although mean diurnal cycle amplitudes vary among the models, this component is but a small part of total precipitation variance. Therefore, the total precipitation variance is significantly underestimated by models in general. Further exploration of model‐data discrepancies in precipitation at high‐time frequency may lead to new and useful climate model diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Mineral Precipitation During Shear Fracturing of Carbonate-Rich Shales

Target subsurface reservoirs for emerging low-carbon energy technologies and geologic carbon sequestration typically have low permeability and thus rely heavily on fluid transport through natural and induced fracture networks. Sustainable development of these systems requires deeper understanding of how geochemically mediated deformation impacts fracture microstructure and permeability evolution, particularly with respect to geochemical reactions between pore fluids and the host rock. Here, a series of triaxial direct shear experiments was designed to evaluate how fractures generated at subsurface conditions respond to penetration of reactive fluids with a focus on the role of mineral precipitation. Calcite-rich shale cores were directly sheared under 3.5 MPa confining pressure using BaCl 2 -rich solutions as a working fluid. Experiments were conducted within an X-ray computed tomography (xCT) scanner to capture 4-D evolution of fracture geometry and precipitate growth. Three shear tests evidenced nonuniform precipitation of barium carbonates (BaCO 3 ) along through-going fractures, where the extent of precipitation increased with increasing calcite content. Precipitates were strongly localized within fracture networks due to mineral, geochemical, and structural heterogeneities and generally concentrated in smaller apertures where rock:water ratios were highest. The combination of elevated fluid saturation and reactive surface area created in freshly activated fractures drove near-immediate mineral precipitation that led to an 80% permeability reduction and significant flow obstruction in the most reactive core. While most previous studies have focused on mixing-induced precipitation, this work demonstrates that fluid–rock interactions can trigger precipitation-induced permeability alterations that can initiate or mitigate risks associated with subsurface energy systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation

There is an increasing concern of the uncertainty produced by aerosols in forecasting precipitation including hail precipitation. This study provides an assessment of the uncertainties in hail and total precipitation by varying initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (CCNC) and meteorological conditions based on 1200 cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in hail precipitation (including rate and maximum hail size) as well as total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude can cause even larger uncertainties, especially pairing with the thermodynamics perturbation (i.e., potential temperature and water vapor). Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with a higher predictability in moderate polluted environments compared with the very clean and polluted environments. Increasing CCNC consistently leads a non-monotonic response of ensemble mean with an optimal CCNC for hail precipitation but a monotonic decreasing response of total precipitation with the various meteorological perturbations, meaning the initial meteorological perturbations does not qualitatively change the aerosol effects. Investigation with 10-fold reduced initial perturbation further supports the large CCN effects are not dependent of metrological perturbations. The findings suggest the importance of considering CCN effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Representation of Synoptic Variability Associated With California Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract Days of extreme precipitation over California are evaluated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the ERA‐Interim reanalysis. In the current climate, the model spread in composited precipitation on extreme precipitation days is closely related to the magnitude of composited integrated vapor transport (IVT) across models, a proxy for the intensity of atmospheric rivers. Most models underestimate the magnitude of IVT associated with extreme precipitation, according to ERA‐Interim. This is due mostly to the contribution of moisture, which almost all models overestimate, while the contribution of lower‐tropospheric wind speed is generally closer to the reanalyses. Moreover, most models underestimate the variance in the latitude of maxima of numerous variables among days of extreme California precipitation. That is, in the general circulation models there is a lack of diversity in the latitude of the disturbances bringing winter precipitation to California. In the future climate, most models project a decrease in the frequency of southward‐displaced disturbances among California extreme precipitation days. Hence, the greatest increases in extreme precipitation are over northern California. However, the historical underestimate of the latitudinal variance of disturbances calls into question the reliability of these projections. This bias should be especially considered for dynamical downscaling efforts over the region.

Norris, Jesse↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulated Precipitation Diurnal Variation With a Deep Convective Closure Subject to Shallow Convection in Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 Coupled With CLUBB

In order to improve the physical consistency between shallow and deep convection, we modify the deep convective closure in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) coupled with a third-order turbulence closure parameterization (i.e., Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals; CLUBB). The revised closure reserves a portion of the total convective available potential energy for shallow convection via utilizing the heating and moistening profiles from CLUBB to distribute moisture and energy between shallow and deep convection. Simulations at two resolutions (i.e. 2° and 0.5°, respectively) are conducted to investigate the impacts of convective closure on the simulated precipitation diurnal variations. Results from low-resolution simulations show that the revised closure suppresses deep convection until the lower troposphere is sufficiently moistened by shallow convection, which improves the precipitation diurnal variation simulations compared to the default closure, with the precipitation diurnal peak over tropical lands delayed from 12LST to 19LST. The revised closure better simulates the diurnal variations for precipitation over the Asian monsoon region, such as the delayed precipitation onset, but still fails to well capture the nighttime peak for precipitation there. This deficiency is alleviated to some extent when applying the revised closure in highresolution simulations, but nighttime precipitation is still underestimated probably because key processes responsible for nighttime convection are missing. Altogether, our results indicate that establishing the consistency between shallow and deep convection is critical for the precipitation diurnal cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗