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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Derivation of A Representative Elementary Volume (REV) for Upscaled Two-Phase Flow in Porous Media

Relative permeability plays an important role in the upscaling of multiphase flow in porous media from the pore scale to the Darcy scale. The entire concept of relative permeability is contingent on the existence of a representative elementary volume (REV). As we move to smaller samples to measure relative permeability, such as with digital core analysis, the concept of a classical REV has become increasingly unlikely when using the conventional approach to defining a representative volume. The “‘conventional”’ understanding of an REV is that a large enough volume must be considered such that spatial variability averages out. In digital rock methods, such as pore-scale simulations based on micro-computed tomography (CT) images, the domain size is typically 2 to 4 mm. This is approximately the length scale of a single-phase flow REV using the classic REV approach. However, the single-phase perspective does not consider the complex dynamics and fluctuations often observed in multiphase flow systems, even at centimeter-scale experiments and/or simulations. A fundamental question is, therefore, whether the domain size commonly used in digital rock simulations can provide a consistent energy budget such that the concept of relative permeability exists. Based on first principles, relative permeability accounts for the rate of energy dissipated in a stationary process. If the dynamics are fluctuating, the energy dissipated can vary but will average out over a long enough timescale. The key to determining the validity of the relative permeability is the timescale of the measurement, not the spatial scale. The conventional REV theory assumes that spatial, temporal, and ensemble averages are equivalent in an ergodic system, but it does not provide a way to test this assumption. We provide a formal way to identify the timescale where the relative permeability accurately captures energy dissipation as a way to validate relative permeability measurements and quantitatively assess their accuracy. This result will be tested for a practical SCAL test, determining how long a flow experiment needs to be run to accurately characterize the rate of energy dissipation by the flow. The outcome will be a best practice guide for the determination of relative permeability from core-scale experiments and/or digital core simulations that ensure the energy budget is fully accounted for in the relative permeability coefficient.

Mcclure, James [Virginia Tech, Blacksburg]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Residual Stresses Induced due to Curing of the Bulk Matrix in a Simplified Three-Dimensional (3D) Woven Repeating Unit Cell

It has been observed that 3D woven materials are highly susceptible to processes induced defects including tow misalignment, intratow and intertow cracking and/or voids. Adequate process modeling of 3D woven Polymer Matrix Composites (PMCs) is necessary to predict and estimate the effects of the manufacturing process on these defects. A preliminary step towards this is achieved with the commercial Finite Element Analysis (FEA) tool Abaqus complemented with written user subroutines to account for the effect of shrinkage and thermoelastic properties evolution as a function of the degree of cure of the bulk matrix phase in a 3D woven composite repeating unit cell (RUC). As a pathfinder, the process modeling framework is demonstrated on a simplified 3D woven RUC of an AS4/RIMR 135 system. Curing simulations are performed on the 3D woven RUC to observe the processing induced residual stresses. The results of the analysis show that high stress concentrations, present within the 3D intertow matrix bordering the binder tow, coincide with X-Ray computed tomography (X-Ray-CT) scan data depicting cracking in the same location

3D Woven↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

“Scrutinizing entrainment and mass flux closures in shallow cumulus parameterizations using cloud-radar observations and large-eddy simulation” (Final report for DOE grant)

Warm, shallow clouds are responsible for a substantial portion of Earth System Model (ESM) uncertainty and divergence among model climate projections. A substantial amount of this uncertainty is tied to the representation of convection in ESMs, in particular assumptions underlying the convective parameterizations. This study focuses on entrainment and entrainment closures in ESM parameterizations. The completed project was a joint observational and modeling study to observationally derive estimates of entrainment and to use high-resolution modeling to scrutinize entrainment and mass flux closures in shallow convection parameterizations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Simulation Atlas of Tidal Features in Galaxies

Detailed simulations of tidally induced structure in disk galaxies have either concentrated on specific systems or consisted of a few encounters with relatively small numbers of particles and no self-gravity. Observers need a 'dictionary' of simulations that covers many encounter parameters with fine morphological resolution and includes effects of self-gravitation. Observers can then search the dictionary for the parameters that best match a particular observed morphology. Alternatively, the dictionary can be used with observational samples for statistical studies of system parameters. To fill this need, we present a survey of model tidal encounters using a self-gravitating, 180,000 particle, two-component ('stars' and 'gas') disk. A wide variety of fascinating morphologies results. There are 86 different encounters that vary orbit tilt, perigalacticon distance, galaxy to companion mass ratio, and the amount of halo dark matter relative to the disk. For morphological comparisons, over 1700 images of the entire survey are available in video form. While there is a rich variety of tidal structure covering much of this parameter space, some general patterns may be remarked. There is a strong orbital inclination dependence of the symmetry of tidal patterns, most symmetric for planar orbits and nearly one-sided for polar encounters. Retrograde encounters produce only broad fanlike global patterns, but rich small-scale internal structure. In both kinds of encounter, our numerical resolution allows us to track internal spiral structure driven by the outer material arms, especially in the lighter halo simulations. We note also that polar encounters generate series of expanding, essentially non-rotating loops resembling shell structures in some respects.

Howard, Sethanne↗
NASA NTRS2004

Hydrogen-Oxygen PEM Regenerative Fuel Cell at NASA Glenn Research Center

The NASA Glenn Research Center has constructed a closed-cycle hydrogen-oxygen PEM regenerative fuel cell (RFC) to explore its potential use as an energy storage device for a high altitude solar electric aircraft. Built up over the last 2 years from specialized hardware and off the shelf components the Glenn RFC is a complete "brassboard" energy storage system which includes all the equipment required to (1) absorb electrical power from an outside source and store it as pressurized hydrogen and oxygen and (2) make electrical power from the stored gases, saving the product water for re-use during the next cycle. It consists of a dedicated hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell stack and an electrolyzer stack, the interconnecting plumbing and valves, cooling pumps, water transfer pumps, gas recirculation pumps, phase separators, storage tanks for oxygen (O2) and hydrogen (H2), heat exchangers, isolation valves, pressure regulators, nitrogen purge provisions, instrumentation, and other components. It specific developmental functions include: (1) Test fuel cells and fuel cell components under repeated closed-cycle operation (nothing escapes; everything is used over and over again). (2) Simulate diurnal charge-discharge cycles (3) Observe long-term system performance and identify degradation and loss mechanisms. (4) Develop safe and convenient operation and control strategies leading to the successful development of mission-capable, flight-weight RFC's.

Bents, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Vertical Distribution of Saharan Dust from the Goddard Three Dimensional Transport Model: Comparison with LITE Data

Spatial distributions of Saharan dust are simulated by the Goddard 3D chemistry transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-2 DAS. An aerosol module accounts for gravitational settling and the aerosol source function is based on surface moisture content and wind speed. The simulated aerosol fields are compared with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by P. Ginoux in this session. The main focus is how ventilation of the assimilation winds will impact the simulated aerosol vertical distribution. Excessive ventilation would transport too much aerosol in the upper troposphere and lead to errors in the long range transport as well as errors in any radiative forcing calculations derived from the simulated aerosol fields. Simulated aerosol fields using GEOS-1 DAS wind fields for September 1994 will be compared with lidar observations during the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). The lidar return signal clearly delineates the vertical extent and horizontal variability of the aerosol layer allowing rigorous comparison with the simulated fields. A second focus is the simulation of aerosol scavenging due to moist processes. Three-dimensional precipitation fields can be derived from two possible sources: Assimilated precipitation fields from GEOS-DAS or fields obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave/imager (SSM/1). Of interest is the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol fields to the different precipitation fields driving the moist scavenging module.

Weaver, Clark J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smoothed boundary method for simulating incompressible flow in complex geometries

Simulating flow through porous media with explicit considerations of complex microstructures is very challenging using conventional sharp-interface methods because of the difficulties in generating meshes conformal to complex geometries. In this work, a diffuse interface embedded boundary method known as the Smoothed Boundary Method (SBM) is utilized to facilitate simulations of fluid dynamics involving complex geometries. In diffuse-interface methods, the geometry is described by a domain parameter. The SBM allows the straightforward reformulation of the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations in terms of this domain parameter, using only algebraic identities. Thus, enforcing the appropriate boundary conditions at the irregular embedded boundary is greatly simplified. Adaptive mesh refinement is used to increase the accuracy of the diffuse interface method by allowing thinner interfacial thickness to be used in the domain parameter. Here, the SBM-formulated Navier-Stokes equations are solved with the Finite Difference Method on refined mesh systems. Sharp-interface Finite Element Method simulations using the commercial software COMSOL on body-conforming meshes are also provided for comparison. Favorable agreement between the two methods is observed. Since it is no longer necessary for the mesh to conform to the complex geometry, the grid system for the SBM simulations can be generated rapidly and without additional manual interventions, making the entire simulation process more expedient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.

Allen, Melissa↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evaluating the design of an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument with systen simulations. Part 1: Instantaneous estimates

A set of system simulations has been performed to evaluate candidate scanner designs for an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) for the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the late 1990s. Five different instruments are considered: (1) the Active Cavity Array (ACA), (2) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System-Instrument (CERES-I), (3) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR), (4) the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Cross-Track Scanner (ERBE), and (5) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner (N7). Errors in instantaneous, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) satellite flux estimates are assumed to arise from two measurement problems: the sampling of space over a given geographic domain, and sampling in angle about a given spatial location. When angular sampling errors vanish due to the application of correct angular dependence models (ADMs) during inversion, the accuracy of each scanner design is determined by the instrument's ability to map the TOA radiance field in a uniform manner. In this regard, the instruments containing a cross-track scanning component (CERES-I and ERBE) do best. As errors in ADMs are encountered, cross-track instruments incur angular sampling errors more rapidly than biaxial instruments (N7, ACA, and CSR) and eventually overtake the biaxial designs in their total error amounts. A latitude bias (north-south error gradient) in the ADM error of cross-track instruments also exists. This would be objectionable when ADM errors are systematic over large areas of the globe. For instantaneous errors, however, cross-track scanners outperform biaxial or conical scanners for 2.5 deg latitude x 2.5 deg longitude target areas, providing that the ADM error is less than or equal to 30%. A key issue is the amount of systematic ADM error (departures from the mean models) that is present at the 2.5 deg resolution of the ERBE target areas. If this error is less than 30%, then the CERES-I, ERBE, and CSR, in order of increasing error, provide the most accurate instantaneous flux estimates, within 2-3 W/sq m of each other in reflected shortwave flux. The magnitude of this error is near the 10 W/sq m accuracy requirement of the user community. Longwave flux errors have been found to have the same space and time characteristics as errors in shortwave radiation, but only about 25% as large.

Stowe, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Preliminary Results from an Assimilation of Saharan Dust Using TOMS Radiances and the GOCART Model

At NASA Goddard we are developing a global aerosol data assimilation system that combines advances in remote sensing and modeling of atmospheric aerosols. The goal is to provide high resolution, 3-D aerosol distributions to the research community. Our first step is to develop a simple assimilation system for Saharan mineral aerosol. The Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation model (GOCART) provides accurate 3-D mineral aerosol size distributions. Surface mobilization, wet and dry deposition, convective and long-range transport are all driven by assimilated fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-DAS. Our version of GOCART transports sizes from .08-10 microns and only simulates Saharan dust. We draw the assimilation to two observables in this study: the TOMS aerosol index (Al) which is directly related to the ratio of the 340 and 380 radiances and the 380 radiance alone. The forward model that simulates the observables requires the aerosol optical thickness, the single scattering albedo and the height of the aerosol layer from the GOCART fields. The forward model also requires a refractive index for the dust. We test three index values to see which best fits the TOMS observables. These are 1) for Saharan dust reported by Patterson, 2) for a mixture of Saharan dust and a highly reflective material (sea salt or sulfate) and 3) for pure illite. The assimilation works best assuming either pure illite or the dust mixture. Our assimilation cycle first determines values of the aerosol index (Al) and the radiance at 380 nm based on the GOCART aerosol fields. Differences between the observed and GOCART model calculated Al and 380 nm radiance are first analyzed horizontally using the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). A quasi-Newton iteration is then performed to produce analyzed 3D aerosol fields according to parameterized background and observation error covariances. We only assimilate observations into the the GOCART model over regions of Africa and the Atlantic where mineral aerosols are dominant and carbonaceous aerosols are minimal.

Weaver, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum simulation of conical intersections using trapped ions

Conical intersections often control the reaction products of photochemical processes and occur when two electronic potential energy surfaces intersect. Theory predicts that the conical intersection will result in a geometric phase for a wavepacket on the ground potential energy surface, and although conical intersections have been observed experimentally, the geometric phase has not been directly observed in a molecular system. Herein we use a trapped atomic ion system to perform a quantum simulation of a conical intersection. The ion’s internal state serves as the electronic state, and the motion of the atomic nuclei is encoded into the motion of the ions. The simulated electronic potential is constructed by applying state-dependent optical forces to the ion. We experimentally observe a clear manifestation of the geometric phase using adiabatic state preparation followed by motional state measurement. Our experiment shows the advantage of combining spin and motion degrees for quantum simulation of chemical reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2006

3-D RPIC simulations of relativistic jets: Particle acceleration, magnetic field generation, and emission

Nonthermal radiation observed from astrophysical systems containing (relativistic) jets and shocks, e.g., supernova remnants, active galactic nuclei (AGNs), gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), and Galactic microquasar systems usually have power-law emission spectra. Fermi acceleration is the mechanism usually assumed for the acceleration of particles in astrophysical environments. Recent PIC simulations using injected relativistic electron-ion (electro-positron) jets show that acceleration occurs within the downstream jet, rather than by the scattering of particles back and forth across the shock as in Fermi acceleration. Shock acceleration is a ubiquitous phenomenon in astrophysical plasmas. Plasma waves and their associated instabilities (e.g., the Buneman instability, other two-streaming instability, and the Weibel instability) created in the .shocks are responsible for particle (electron, positron, and ion) acceleration. The simulation results show that the Weibel instability is responsible for generating and amplifying highly nonuniform, small-scale magnetic fields. These magnetic fields contribute to the electron's transverse deflection behind the jet head. The "jitter" radiation from deflected electrons has different properties than synchrotron radiation which is calculated in a uniform magnetic field. This jitter radiation may be important to understanding the complex time evolution and/or spectral structure in gamma-ray bursts, relativistic jets, and supernova remnants. We will review recent PIC simulations which show particle acceleration in jets.

Nishikawa, K.-I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Ground-Based Network for Improved Validation of Satellite Carbon Dioxide and Methane Observations Over the Eastern United States

Satellite observations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), notably carbon dioxide and methane, over the Eastern United States, are currently only validated indirectly and/or sporadically. There are only four existing routine, ground-based remote sensing locations in the United States suitable for validation of satellite GHG observations: Edwards and Pasadena, CA, Lamont, OK, and Park Falls, WI as part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Among other efforts, e.g. the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and EM27/SUN deployments led by the University of Toronto, the only sites west of the Mississippi River are Park Falls, WI and Toronto, ON. The only remaining validation tools, vicarious calibration and airborne campaigns, are sporadic in space and/or time and thus coincide with only a small subsample of available soundings and conditions. As a result, satellite GHG observations over the east coast of the United States, home to more than half of its population, lack a consistent, widespread means of validation. We describe an ongoing effort to position 8 EM27/SUN spectrometers along the Eastern Seaboard over the next two years. The goals of this effort are to improve both satellite validation and our understanding of human and natural influences on the carbon cycle of the Eastern US, the former enabling the latter. This work is intended to augment past, ongoing, and future inter-agency programs, e.g., the NIST Urban Testbed, routine aircraft and aircore sampling by NOAA, and NASA’s Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America sub-orbital campaign, in particular by offering information on broader time and spatial scales than what is already available while maintaining the high-accuracy constraints of in situ data. We will present early analysis including siting considerations to capture local and/or background conditions and comparison to NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation systems. This includes a 40-day, 3-km horizontal resolution global simulation of early 2020 and a 50-km retrospective analysis of Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations over 2015-present. Both are valuable tools for analyzing expected and observed signals and are useful boundary conditions for yet higher-resolution studies.

Brad Weir↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗