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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Computational Workflows for Uncertainty-Quantified Nuclear Reactions: From Nuclear Theory Inputs to Astrophysical Reaction Rates

Reactions on unstable nuclei, particularly those on the neutron-rich side of stability, are important for both fundamental and applied physics. For fundamental science, the most prevalent use case is astrophysi cal nucleosynthesis by rapid neutron capture—the r-process—by which heavy nuclei are formed in extreme astrophysical environments, such as in supernovae and neutron star mergers; see, e.g., Refs. [1–3]. For ap plications, these processes are relevant for the interpretation of radiochemical data from historic nuclear tests, which contribute to our ability to certify the enduring stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing [4]; see Ref. [5] for a broader discussion of applications. However, reaction cross sections involving unsta ble species are generally poorly understood, for the simple reason that useful data become scarce as one moves away from stability. While there are avenues for improving the amount and quality of data for these species [6], one is fundamentally reliant on nuclear theory to make progress on these fields of study.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deuterium scattering experiments in CTEQ global QCD analyses: a comparative investigation

Abstract Experimental measurements in deep-inelastic scattering and lepton-pair production on deuterium targets play an important role in the flavor separation of u and d (anti)quarks in global QCD analyses of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the nucleon. We investigate the impact of theoretical corrections accounting for the light-nuclear structure of the deuteron upon the fitted u , d -quark, gluon, and other PDFs in the CJ15 and CT18 families of next-to-leading order CTEQ global analyses. The investigation is done using the $$L_2$$ L 2 sensitivity statistical method, which provides a common metric to quantify the strength of experimental constraints on various PDFs and ratios of PDFs in the two distinct fitting frameworks. Using the $$L_2$$ L 2 sensitivity and other approaches, we examine the compatibility of deuteron data sets with other fitted experiments under varied implementations of the deuteron corrections. We find that freely-fitted deuteron corrections modify the PDF uncertainty at large momentum fractions and will be relevant for future PDFs affecting electroweak precision measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 was a protected loss of flow test where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R was an unprotected loss of flow test where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for SHRT-17, SHRT-45R, BOP-301, and BOP-302R there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Ratio of the Neutron to Proton Structure Functions, and the Three-Nucleon EMC Effect in Deep Inelastic Electron Scattering Off Tritium and Helium-3 Mirror Nuclei

The proton and neutron structure functions Fp 2 and Fn 2, respectively are fundamental to understanding many studies in nuclear physics. They provide important information about quark distributions. For example, the ratio Fn 2/Fp 2 is one of the best measurements to find the ratio of d quark over u quark distribution inside the proton. While the calculations of structure functions and quark distributions are non-perturbative, they can be determined by the parameterization of experimental data. The understanding of Fn 2/Fp 2 and d/u as x -> 1 has a large influence on global fits and parameterization, and can be used to distinguish the non-perturbative models which give different predictions. However, Fn 2/Fp 2 measured using deuteron and hydrogen targets has large nuclear uncertainties at large x, because the nuclear effects in the deuteron become significant at large x. The MARATHON experiment, which ran in spring 2018 using the upgraded 11 GeV Jefferson Lab electron beam, employs a novel method. It performed deep inelastic scattering off tritium and helium-3 mirror nuclei to measure Fn 2/Fp 2 over the range x = 0.17 to x = 0.82. Since tritium and helium-3 are mirror nuclei, theoretical uncertainties largely cancel out in the ratio. The extracted Fn 2/Fp 2 has much smaller uncertainties compared with previous experiments at large x. The MARATHON experiment also provided results on the EMC effect for tritium and helium-3 nuclei. The results are considered essential for understanding the EMC effect. This thesis describes the MARATHON experiment, and presents results for Fn 2/Fp 2, and the EMC effect for tritium and helium-3.

Liu, Hanjie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision measurements on oxygen formation in stellar helium burning with gamma-ray beams and a Time Projection Chamber

The carbon/oxygen (C/O) ratio at the end of stellar helium burning is the single most important nuclear input to stellar evolution theory. However, it is not known with sufficient accuracy, due to large uncertainties in the cross-section for the fusion of helium with 12 C to form 16 O, denoted as 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O. Here we present results based on a method that is significantly different from the experimental efforts of the past four decades. With data measured inside one detector and with vanishingly small background, angular distributions of the 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O reaction were obtained by measuring the inverse 16 O( γ , α ) 12 C reaction with gamma-beams and a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) detector. We agree with current world data for the total reaction cross-section and further evidence the strength of our method with accurate angular distributions measured over the 1 - resonance at E cm ~2.4 MeV. Our technique promises to yield results that will surpass the quality of the currently available data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]

This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Homogeneity, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Epic Shadow exercises [Slides]

High precision analyses demonstrate the ability to measure very small differences between sample aliquots. Is it appropriate for us to assume a homogenous sample in ES exercises? When running aliquots in triplicate should the data be averaged? If averaged what uncertainty should be applied, and what does the uncertainty describe? What is the most appropriate uncertainty to apply on single measurements?

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the 13 C(α, n 0 ) 16 O Differential Cross Section from 0.8 to 6.5 MeV

The cross section of the 13 C(α, n 0 ) 16 O reaction is needed for nuclear astrophysics and applications to a precision of 10% or better, yet inconsistencies among 50 years of experimental studies currently lead to an uncertainty of ≈15%. Here, using a state-of-the-art neutron detection array, we have performed a high resolution differential cross section study covering a broad energy range. These measurements result in a dramatic improvement in the extrapolation of the cross section to stellar energies potentially reducing the uncertainty to ≈5% and resolving long standing discrepancies in higher energy data.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and validation of the Alternative Nonlinear Two-phase Subchannel (ANTS) code

The Alternative Nonlinear Two-phase Subchannel solver (ANTS) code was written to provide a fast-running, steady-state, pin-resolved modeling and simulation tool for analysis of common boiling water reactor (BWR) geometry and common operating conditions. ANTS has been integrated into the Virtual Environment for Reactor Application (VERA) core simulator software, where it can be used to provide a thermal/hydraulic (T/H) subchannel solution that is then used to provide neutronic feedback as well as perform the fuel depletion and temperature solution. Herein, this paper presents the rigorous analysis performed on the ANTS code, which includes both code and solution verification testing, benchmarking with the existing two-phase subchannel capability in VERA, CTF, and validation testing using popular two-phase experiments such as PWR Sub-channel and Bundle Tests (PSBT), BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT), Risø, and FRIGG. This assessment was used to qualify ANTS for its intended applications before its use for core-scale, multiphysics BWR simulations. In general, it was found that agreement with experimental data was good; errors were within the range of experimental data uncertainty. Furthermore, code and solution verification confirmed that the governing equations and the most important closure terms were correctly implemented and behaving as expected.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A theoretical study on quasifission and fusion–fission processes in heavy-ion collisions

Despite recent advances and focus on rigorous uncertainty quantification for microscopic models of quantum many-body systems, the uncertainty on the dynamics of those systems has been underexplored. To address this, we have used time-dependent Hartree-Fock to examine the model uncertainty for a collection of low-energy, heavy-ion fusion reactions. Fusion reactions at near-barrier energies represent a rich test-bed for the dynamics of quantum many-body systems owing to the complex interplay of collective excitation, transfer, and static effects that determine the fusion probability of a given system. The model uncertainty is sizable for many of the systems studied and the primary contribution arises from static properties that are ill-constrained, such as the neutron radius of neutron-rich nuclei. These large uncertainties motivate the use of information from reactions to better constrain existing models and to infer static properties from reaction data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Polarimetry Data with Angular Uncertainties

For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark of the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) Component Critical Configurations

Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) was a prototype for the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Kilopower Program. KRUSTY has a highly enriched uranium–molybdenum alloy (with 7.65 wt% molybdenum) annular core reflected by beryllium oxide with an outer stainless steel shield. Five configurations from the experimental campaign were chosen to be evaluated as benchmark cases. Uncertainties were evaluated in five categories: (1) criticality measurement, (2) mass and density, (3) dimensions, (4) material compositions, and (5) positioning. The largest contribution to the overall uncertainty in each case was from the radial alignment of the movable platen. A simplified model was created to increase computational efficiency, and an average bias of –16 pcm was calculated due to the simplifications. Sample calculations were completed for each case using MCNP6.2, COG, and MC21, all with ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data. For MCNP6.2, the average difference (absolute value) between the calculated and experimental $k_{eff}$ for the five configurations was 14 pcm for both the detailed and the simplified models. The $k_{eff}$ results from all three codes are within 1σ of the benchmark values. KRUSTY’s value as a benchmark is due to its sensitivity to beryllium and molybdenum. For beryllium, KRUSTY adds an 18th benchmark with a total cross-section sensitivity greater than 0.05%/%/(unit lethargy). For molybdenum, KRUSTY adds a 9th benchmark with a total cross-section sensitivity greater than 0.004%/%/(unit lethargy).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beta-Decay Half-Lives beyond 54 Ca: A Systematic Survey of Decay Properties Approaching the Neutron Dripline

In an experiment performed at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) using the FRIB Decay Station initiator, 15 new half-lives of isotopes near 54 Ca were measured. A new method of extracting lifetimes from experimental data, taking into account the unknown 𝛽-delayed neutron emission branches of very neutron-rich nuclei, was developed to enable systematic uncertainty analysis. The experiment observed a dramatic change in the half-life systematics for the isotopes with neutron number 𝑁 = 34. Beyond 𝑁 = 34, the decline of nuclear lifetime is much slower, leading to longer than anticipated lifetimes for near-dripline nuclei. State-of-the-art shell-model calculations can explain the experimental results, revealing the imprint of shell effects and the need for modification of single-particle neutron states. In conclusion, the results from a newly developed quasiparticle random phase approximation model with potential for making global predictions were also tested against the experimental results and good agreement was found.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
NASA NTRS1985

Charge and energy dependence of the residence time of cosmic ray nuclei below 15 GeV/nucleon

The relative abundance of nuclear species measured in cosmic rays at Earth has often been interpreted with the simple leaky box model. For this model to be consistent an essential requirement is that the escape length does not depend on the nuclear species. The discrepancy between escape length values derived from iron secondaries and from the B/C ratio was identified by Garcia-Munoz and his co-workers using a large amount of experimental data. Ormes and Protheroe found a similar trend in the HEAO data although they questioned its significance against uncertainties. They also showed that the change in the B/C ratio values implies a decrease of the residence time of cosmic rays at low energies in conflict with the diffusive convective picture. These conclusions crucially depend on the partial cross section values and their uncertainties. Recently new accurate cross sections of key importance for propagation calculations have been measured. Their statistical uncertainties are often better than 4% and their values significantly different from those previously accepted. Here, these new cross sections are used to compare the observed B/C+O and (Sc to Cr)/Fe ratio to those predicted with the simple leaky box model.

Soutoul, A.↗