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Identification and Control of Aircrafts using Multiple Models and Adaptive Critics

We compared two possible implementations of local linear models for control: one approach is based on a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the dynamics followed by a set of linear models operating at each cluster. Therefore the gating function is hard (a single local model will represent the regional dynamics). This simplifies the controller design since there is a one to one mapping between controllers and local models. The second approach uses a soft gate using a probabilistic framework based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (also called a dynamic mixture of experts). In this approach several models may be active at a given time, we can expect a smaller number of models, but the controller design is more involved, with potentially better noise rejection characteristics. Our experiments showed that the SOM provides overall best performance in high SNRs, but the performance degrades faster than with the GMM for the same noise conditions. The SOM approach required about an order of magnitude more models than the GMM, so in terms of implementation cost, the GMM is preferable. The design of the SOM is straight forward, while the design of the GMM controllers, although still reasonable, is more involved and needs more care in the selection of the parameters. Either one of these locally linear approaches outperform global nonlinear controllers based on neural networks, such as the time delay neural network (TDNN). Therefore, in essence the local model approach warrants practical implementations. In order to call the attention of the control community for this design methodology we extended successfully the multiple model approach to PID controllers (still today the most widely used control scheme in the industry), and wrote a paper on this subject. The echo state network (ESN) is a recurrent neural network with the special characteristics that only the output parameters are trained. The recurrent connections are preset according to the problem domain and are fixed. In a nutshell, the states of the reservoir of recurrent processing elements implement a projection space, where the desired response is optimally projected. This architecture trades training efficiency by a large increase in the dimension of the recurrent layer. However, the power of the recurrent neural networks can be brought to bear on practical difficult problems. Our goal was to implement an adaptive critic architecture implementing Bellman s approach to optimal control. However, we could only characterize the ESN performance as a critic in value function evaluation, which is just one of the pieces of the overall adaptive critic controller. The results were very convincing, and the simplicity of the implementation was unparalleled.

Principe, Jose C.↗

Integrated Application of Active Controls (IAAC) technology to an advanced subsonic transport project: Current and advanced act control system definition study, volume 1

An active controls technology (ACT) system architecture was selected based on current technology system elements and optimal control theory was evaluated for use in analyzing and synthesizing ACT multiple control laws. The system selected employs three redundant computers to implement all of the ACT functions, four redundant smaller computers to implement the crucial pitch-augmented stability function, and a separate maintenance and display computer. The reliability objective of probability of crucial function failure of less than 1 x 10 to the -9th power per flight of 1 hr can be met with current technology system components, if the software is assumed fault free and coverage approaching 1.0 can be provided. The optimal control theory approach to ACT control law synthesis yielded comparable control law performance much more systematically and directly than the classical s-domain approach. The ACT control law performance, although somewhat degraded by the inclusion of representative nonlinearities, remained quite effective. Certain high-frequency gust-load alleviation functions may require increased surface rate capability.

Hanks, G. W.↗

Accurate and Efficient Parametric Model-Order Reduction for Turbulent Thermal Transport

This project produced new algorithms and software for low-cost exploration of turbulent thermal-fluids behavior under parametric variation by using reduced-order models (ROMs). The ROMs numerically solve the governing equations for fluid motion by using a small set of basis functions (typically, N=20-200 modes) to represent the solution. The base modes are computed as optimal combinations of solutions from expensive high-fidelity "anchor-point" solutions involving millions of unknowns, which are typically generated by solving the full Navier-Stokes equations on a supercomputer. The ROM solution is itself a combination of the base modes, where the basis coefficients are determined by evolving an NxN system of nonlinear equations. The overarching idea is to use the inexpensive ROM to predict solutions under conditions where the parameters differ from the anchor-point conditions. Several ingredients are required to make ROMs useful for thermal hydraulics analysis. These include: a stable and accurate ROM that is capable of reproducing the large-scale dynamics of turbulent flow, error indicators than can guide the choice of anchor points, and low-cost mechanisms for evaluating nonlinear terms in the reduced equations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

INTEGRATE - Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements

The INTEGRATE (Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements) project is developing a new inverse-design capability for the aerodynamic design of wind turbine rotors using invertible neural networks. This AI-based design technology can capture complex non-linear aerodynamic effects while being 100 times faster than design approaches based on computational fluid dynamics. This project enables innovation in wind turbine design by accelerating time to market through higher-accuracy early design iterations to reduce the levelized cost of energy. INVERTIBLE NEURAL NETWORKS Researchers are leveraging a specialized invertible neural network (INN) architecture along with the novel dimension-reduction methods and airfoil/blade shape representations developed by collaborators at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) learns complex relationships between airfoil or blade shapes and their associated aerodynamic and structural properties. This INN architecture will accelerate designs by providing a cost-effective alternative to current industrial aerodynamic design processes, including: - Blade element momentum (BEM) theory models: limited effectiveness for design of offshore rotors with large, flexible blades where nonlinear aerodynamic effects dominate - Direct design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD): cost-prohibitive - Inverse-design models based on deep neural networks (DNNs): attractive alternative to CFD for 2D design problems, but quickly overwhelmed by the increased number of design variables in 3D problems AUTOMATED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS FOR TRAINING DATA GENERATION - MERCURY FRAMEWORK The INN is trained on data obtained using the University of Marylands (UMD) Mercury Framework, which has with robust automated mesh generation capabilities and advanced turbulence and transition models validated for wind energy applications. Mercury is a multi-mesh paradigm, heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework. The framework incorporates three flow solvers at UMD, 1) OverTURNS, a structured solver on CPUs, 2) HAMSTR, a line based unstructured solver on CPUs, and 3) GARFIELD, a structured solver on GPUs. The framework is based on Python, that is often used to wrap C or Fortran codes for interoperability with other solvers. Communication between multiple solvers is accomplished with a Topology Independent Overset Grid Assembler (TIOGA). NOVEL AIRFOIL SHAPE REPRESENTATIONS USING GRASSMAN SPACES We developed a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation as an analytic generative model, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data , (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics informing design/manufacturing, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DEMONSTRATION - COUPLING WITH NREL WISDEM Researchers have integrated the inverse-design tool for 2D airfoils (INN-Airfoil) into WISDEM (Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model), a multidisciplinary design and optimization framework for assessing the cost of energy, as part of tech-transfer demonstration. The integration of INN-Airfoil into WISDEM allows for the design of airfoils along with the blades that meet the dynamic design constraints on cost of energy, annual energy production, and the capital costs. Through preliminary studies, researchers have shown that the coupled INN-Airfoil + WISDEM approach reduces the cost of energy by around 1% compared to the conventional design approach. This page will serve as a place to easily access all the publications from this work and the repositories for the software developed and released through this pr...

aerodynamics↗

Structural Health Monitoring: Using an Autoencoder to Identify Damage in a Bolted Joint [Capstone Project]

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is an important fixture in the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) complex. LANL is one of the largest national laboratories in the country, and the laboratory’s primary mission is to support the nation’s nuclear stockpile. The lab functions as a design agencies for the NNSA and performs extensive testing on weapons as part of that mission. The shock and vibration test team at LANL utilizes electrodynamic shaker systems for important qualification testing in support of the laboratory’s mission. Modern engineering relies heavily on bolted joints to connect two objects. During these shaker tests, engineers depend on bolted joints to secure the test article to a fixture and the fixture to the table. The test article may be hazardous and contain high explosives which could create a safety issue if a bolted joint failed. A loss of preload in a bolt will affect the way energy is input to the system and may introduce nonlinearities as the joint opens and closes. The loss of preload can create challenges controlling the test and make acquired signals useless. Being able to monitor preload within bolted joints during testing can improve the quality of the data and keep workers safe.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of Open Hole Compression Specimens Using the CompDam Continuum Damage Mechanics Model

This report documents a validation study on the standard Open Hole Compression (OHC) laminate test specimen conducted as part of the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP). Tests were conducted on OHC specimens with hard, quasi-isotropic, and soft layups using digital image correlation and X-Ray computed tomography to capture the structural response and damage evolution. Progressive damage models were constructed for use with the CompDam continuum damage mechanics code following the best practices established during the ACP. Detailed interrogation of the analysis results and comparison with experimental measurements provide a basis for assessing the capability of the modeling approach for OHC. The structural response is found to be captured well, with strengths predicted within 3\% of the experimental values for hard and quasi-isotropic laminates. In the soft laminate, the model predicts failure to be more brittle than the nonlinear, ductile response that was measured. Damage states extracted from the models at the same load level as test measurements are overlaid to show directly the similarities and differences between test and analysis results. Studying the damage evolution predicted by the analysis reveals that the failure process is a competition between fiber damage and delamination/sub-laminate buckling, with fiber damage dominating the collapse in the hard laminate and sub-laminate buckling governing in the soft laminate. Finally, a series of parametric studies varying numerical solution parameters (mesh size, mass scaling) and physical properties (fiber direction compressive strength and toughness) reveal sensitivities and deficiencies of the model. To the authors' knowledge, this study is the first for OHC specimens to include detailed evaluation of damage mode interactions, direct overlay of predicted and measured damage states, and sensitivity of the predicted results to difficult-to-measure fiber direction material properties.

Continuum damage mechanics↗

Extension of the Time-Spectral Approach to Overset Solvers for Arbitrary Motion

Forced periodic flows arise in a broad range of aerodynamic applications such as rotorcraft, turbomachinery, and flapping wing configurations. Standard practice involves solving the unsteady flow equations forward in time until the initial transient exits the domain and a statistically stationary flow is achieved. It is often required to simulate through several periods to remove the initial transient making unsteady design optimization prohibitively expensive for most realistic problems. An effort to reduce the computational cost of these calculations led to the development of the Harmonic Balance method [1, 2] which capitalizes on the periodic nature of the solution. The approach exploits the fact that forced temporally periodic flow, while varying in the time domain, is invariant in the frequency domain. Expanding the temporal variation at each spatial node into a Fourier series transforms the unsteady governing equations into a steady set of equations in integer harmonics that can be tackled with the acceleration techniques afforded to steady-state flow solvers. Other similar approaches, such as the Nonlinear Frequency Domain [3,4,5], Reduced Frequency [6] and Time-Spectral [7, 8, 9] methods, were developed shortly thereafter. Additionally, adjoint-based optimization techniques can be applied [10, 11] as well as frequency-adaptive methods [12, 13, 14] to provide even more flexibility to the method. The Fourier temporal basis functions imply spectral convergence as the number of harmonic modes, and correspondingly number of time samples, N, is increased. Some elect to solve the equations in the frequency domain directly, while others choose to transform the equations back into the time domain to simplify the process of adding this capability to existing solvers, but each harnesses the underlying steady solution in the frequency domain. These temporal projection methods will herein be collectively referred to as Time-Spectral methods. Time-Spectral methods have demonstrated marked success in reducing the computational costs associated with simulating periodic forced flows, but have yet to be fully applied to overset or Cartesian solvers for arbitrary motion with dynamic hole-cutting. Overset and Cartesian grid methodologies are versatile techniques capable of handling complex geometry configurations in practical engineering applications, and the combination of the Time-Spectral approach with this general capability potentially provides an enabling new design and analysis tool. In an arbitrary moving-body scenario for these approaches, a Lagrangian body moves through a fixed Eulerian mesh and mesh points in the Eulerian mesh interior to the solid body are removed (cut or blanked), leaving a hole in the Eulerian mesh. During the dynamic motion some gridpoints in the domain are blanked and do not have a complete set of time-samples preventing a direct implementation of the Time-Spectral method. Murman[6] demonstrated the Time-Spectral approach for a Cartesian solver with a rigid domain motion, wherein the hole cutting remains constant. Similarly, Custer et al. [15, 16] used the NASA overset OVERFLOW solver and limited the amount of relative motion to ensure static hole-cutting and interpolation. Recently, Mavriplis and Mundis[17] demonstrated a qualitative method for applying the Time-Spectral approach to an unstructured overset solver for arbitrary motion. The goal of the current work is to develop a robust and general method for handling arbitrary motion with the Time-Spectral approach within an overset or Cartesian mesh method, while still approaching the spectral convergence rate of the original Time-Spectral approach. The viscous OVERFLOW solver will be augmented with the new Time-Spectral algorithm and the capability of the method for benchmark problems in rotorcraft and turbomachinery will be demonstrated. This abstract begins with a brief synopsis of the Time-Spectral approach for overset grids and provides details of e current approach to allow for arbitrary motion. Model problem results in one and two dimensions are included to demonstrate the viability of the method and the convergence properties. Section IV briefly outlines the implementation into the OVERFLOW solver, and the abstract closes with a description of the benchmark test cases which will be included in the final paper.

Leffell, Joshua Isaac↗

New systems in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) serves as a common library of classes between applications developed for advanced reactor analysis, fusion device engineering, spent fuel cask analysis, geochemistry studies, among other fields. These applications drive the development of the framework to meet their needs. Systems in MOOSE group capabilities that share a common purpose and generally common code. They can be leveraged by all downstream applications, providing extensive code re-use and shared maintenance. They facilitate the discovery by new users of the classes meeting at least partially their needs, and offer the same opportunities for customization as other systems. The addition of a new system to MOOSE opens new ways of solving or discretizing nonlinear problems, of performing distributed postprocessing, and a plethora of other needs. While new systems can be introduced in downstream applications rather than at the framework level, the framework team monitors common needs across the community and often triggers their addition. Documentation, training material, development needs can be centralized, limiting duplicated work across the community. The last three years have seen a large expansion in the capabilities of MOOSE. The supporting role of the framework in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has created numerous feature requests to support neutronics, thermal hydraulics, computational fluid dynamics and thermo-mechanics simulations in the Griffin, SAM, Pronghorn and Bison applications respectively. Similarly, laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) projects in additive manufacturing, high-Reynolds flow simulations, structure optimization also necessitate an expansion of the framework capabilities. This summary reports on the new systems created in MOOSE, their design, their capabilities and some of the relevant interfaces.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Process Optimization of Carbon Electrode Materials Manufacturing by Experimental Study and Machine Learning Techniques

Electrospun carbon fibers from coal have been investigated as electrodes for batteries and supercapacitors. Despite the excellent properties of coal-derived carbon fibers (CCNF) for energy storage devices, there still lacks systematic understanding on how various process parameters affect final electrode performances, which poses challenges to scale from pilot to high volume manufacturing. The goals of this project are twofold. First, we focuse on process optimization for converting a new precursor from powder river basin (PRB) coal, referred to as coal-based polyurethane (CPU) to CCNF using electrospinning. Second, different machine learning techniques will be examined using experimental data from this work and open literature. Specifically, for CPU the following process parameters need to be characterized and optimized in order to produce CCNFs with desirable mechanical integrity and physiochemical properties: precursor composition and viscosity, operating voltage and distance, oxidation and carbonization temperature and duration. Consequently, physiochemical properties of the fibers were characterized to correlate these process parameters with desirable electrochemical performance. Given the complex nature of the fiber production process, ML models are assessed for their ability to capture the nonlinear relationship between process parameters and the electrochemical properties in applications including supercapacitors. As such, we applied various machine learning techniques, to determine which technique produces a model that best predicts device function.

Cincotta, Robert E.F.↗

Preconditioned least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin reduced order models

Abstract In this article, we introduce a methodology for improving the accuracy and efficiency of reduced order models (ROMs) constructed using the least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection method through the introduction of preconditioning. Unlike prior related work, which focuses on preconditioning the linear systems arising within the ROM numerical solution procedure to improve linear solver performance, our approach leverages a preconditioning matrix directly within the minimization problem underlying the LSPG formulation. Applying preconditioning in this way has the potential to improve ROM accuracy for several reasons. First, preconditioning the LSPG formulation changes the norm defining the residual minimization, which can improve the residual‐based stability constant bounding the ROM solution's error. The incorporation of a preconditioner into the LSPG formulation can have the additional effect of scaling the components of the residual being minimized to make them roughly of the same magnitude, which can be beneficial when applying the LSPG method to problems with disparate scales (e.g., dimensional equations, multi‐physics problems). Importantly, we demonstrate that an “ideal preconditioned” LSPG ROM (a ROM in which the preconditioner is the inverse of the Jacobian of its corresponding full order model) emulates projection of the full order model solution increment onto the reduced basis. This quantity defines a lower bound on the error of a ROM solution for a given reduced basis. By designing preconditioners that approximate the Jacobian inverse—as is common in designing preconditioners for solving linear systems—it is possible to obtain a ROM whose error approaches this lower bound. The proposed approach is evaluated on several mechanical and thermo‐mechanical problems implemented within the Albany HPC code and run in the predictive regime, with prediction across material parameter space. We demonstrate numerically that the introduction of simple Jacobi, Gauss‐Seidel, and ILU preconditioners into the proper orthogonal decomposition/LSPG formulation reduces significantly the ROM solution error, the reduced Jacobian condition number, the number of nonlinear iterations required to reach convergence, and the wall time (thereby improving efficiency). Moreover, our numerical results reveal that the introduction of preconditioning can deliver a robust and accurate solution for test cases in which the unpreconditioned LSPG method fails to converge.

Lindsay, Payton↗

Arcjet space thrusters

Electrically powered arc jets which produce thrust at high specific impulse could provide a substantial cost reduction for orbital transfer and station keeping missions. There is currently a limited understanding of the complex, nonlinear interactions in the plasma propellant which has hindered the development of high efficiency arc jet thrusters by making it difficult to predict the effect of design changes and to interpret experimental results. A computational model developed at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) to study laser powered thrusters and radio frequency gas heaters has been adapted to provide a tool to help understand the physical processes in arc jet thrusters. The approach is to include in the model those physical and chemical processes which appear to be important, and then to evaluate our judgement by the comparison of numerical simulations with experimental data. The results of this study have been presented at four technical conferences. The details of the work accomplished in this project are covered in the individual papers included in the appendix of this report. We present a brief description of the model covering its most important features followed by a summary of the effort.

Keefer, Dennis↗

Growth Mechanism of Nanowires: Ternary Chalcogenides

In the past two decades there has been a large rise in the investment and expectations for nanotechnology use. Almost every area of research has projected improvements in sensors, or even a promise for the emergence of some novel device technologies. For these applications major focuses of research are in the areas of nanoparticles and graphene. Although there are some near term applications with nanowires in photodetectors and other low light detectors, there are few papers on the growth mechanism and fabrication of nanowire-based devices. Semiconductor nanowires exhibit very favorable and promising optical properties, including high transparency and a several order of magnitude better photocurrent than thin film and bulk materials. We present here an overview of the mechanism of nanowire growth from the melt, and some preliminary results for the thallium arsenic selenide material system. Thallium arsenic selenide (TAS) is a multifunctional material combining excellent acousto-optical, nonlinear and radiation detection properties. We observed that small units of (TAS) nanocubes arrange and rearrange at moderate melt undercooling to form the building block of a nanowire. In some cases very long wires (less than mm) are formed. Since we avoided the catalyst, we observed self-nucleation and uncontrolled growth of wires from different places.

Singh, N. B.↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emittance preservation for the electron arm in a single PWFA-LC stage using quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramp matching sections

Plasma-based acceleration (PBA) is being considered for a next generation linear collider (LC). In some PBA-LC designs for the electron arm, the extreme beam parameters are expected to trigger background ion motion within the witness beam, which can lead to longitudinally varying nonlinear focusing forces and result in an unacceptable emittance growth of the beam. To mitigate this, we propose to use quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramps as matching sections at the entrance and exit of each stage. We match the witness electron beam to the low density plasma entrance, where the beam initially has a large matched spot size so the ion motion effects are relatively small. As the beam propagates in the plasma density upramp, it is quasi-adiabatically focused, and its distribution maintains a non-Gaussian equilibrium distribution in each longitudinal slice throughout the process, even when severe ion collapse has occurred. This only causes small amounts of slice emittance growth. The phase mixing between slices with different betatron frequencies leads to additional projected emittance growth within the acceleration stage. A density downramp at the exit of an acceleration section can eliminate much of the slice and projected emittance growth as the beam and ion motion adiabatically defocuses and decreases, respectively. Simulation results from QuickPIC with Azimuthal Decomposition show that within a single acceleration stage with a 25 GeV energy gain, this concept can limit the projected emittance growth to only ∼2% for a 25 GeV, 100 nm emittance witness beam and ∼20% for a 100 GeV, 100 nm normalized emittance witness beam. The trade-off between the adiabaticity of the plasma density ramp and the initial ion motion at the entrance for a given length of the plasma density ramp is also discussed.

Physics↗

Characterizing Droplet Formation from Non-Linear Slosh in a Propellant Tank

The Fluid Dynamics Branch (ER42) at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) was tasked with characterizing the formation and evolution of liquid droplets resulting from nonlinear propellant slosh in a storage tank. Lateral excitation of propellant tanks can produce high amplitude nonlinear slosh waves through large amplitude excitations and or excitation frequencies near a resonance frequency of the tank. The high amplitude slosh waves become breaking waves upon attaining a certain amplitude or encountering a contracting geometry such as the upper dome section of a spherical tank. Inherent perturbations in the thinning regions of breaking waves result in alternating regions of high and low pressure within the fluid. Droplets form once the force from the local pressure differential becomes larger than the force maintaining the fluid interface shape due to surface tension. Droplets released from breaking waves in a pressurized tank may lead to ullage collapse given the appropriate conditions due to the increased liquid surface area and thus heat transfer between the fluids. The goal of this project is to create an engineering model that describes droplet formation as a function of propellant slosh for use in the evaluation of ullage collapse during a sloshing event. The Volume of Fluid (VOF) model in the production level Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code Loci-Stream was used to predict droplet formation from breaking waves with realistic surface tension characteristics. Various excitation frequencies and amplitudes were investigated at multiple fill levels for a single storage tank to create the engineering model of droplet formation from lateral propellant slosh.

Brodnick, Jacob↗

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2024 Incubator Final Report: Active Hybrid Mooring

This Incubator project has defined and developed a representation of an active hybrid mooring (AHM) system in Simulink to assess whether the speed and accuracy of AHM is sufficient to warrant further investigation in a larger project. We first built a representative mooring system for the VolturnUS-S 15MW floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) in 1,000-meter water depth to provide baseline loads and displacements needed in the AHM system, with the results showing off-the-shelf actuators would be practical. We then defined model configurations for the numerical and physical substructures, using standalone MoorDyn v2 with a novel input strategy and chained hydraulic actuators represented in Simulink Simscape, respectively. The remainder of the project has focused on verifying the existing models for speed and accuracy against OpenFAST simulations, increasing their complexity to enable six degree of freedom (6DOF) operation, and connecting the numerical and physical substructures into a single holistic model. The verification phase of the project has shown promising results, though further refinement is needed to resolve accuracy discrepancies and for robust performance across a wider range of metocean conditions. The numerical model we developed is computationally stable and operates faster than real time using a time step of 0.01 seconds or shorter, indicating the model is likely fast enough for our AHM design to operate successfully. Additionally, the Simscape model of a hydraulic actuator operates with less than 0.3% relative error when actuating mooring loads from an OpenFAST simulation of the VolturnUS-S 1,000-meter mooring system. The aforementined refinements will be performed in the next year as a Continuing Incubator, with key remaining tasks include programming the predictor-corrector loop to minimize movement error, testing against more complex nonlinear wave cases, and expanding to enable loads from connected shared mooring lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Aemulus Project. V. Cosmological Constraint from Small-scale Clustering of BOSS Galaxies

We analyze clustering measurements of BOSS galaxies using a simulation-based emulator of two-point statistics. We focus on the monopole and quadrupole of the redshift-space correlation function, and the projected correlation function, at scales of 0.1 ~ 60 h -1 Mpc. Although our simulations are based on wCDM with general relativity (GR), we include a scaling parameter of the halo velocity field, γ f , defined as the amplitude of the halo velocity field relative to the GR prediction. We divide the BOSS data into three redshift bins. After marginalizing over other cosmological parameters, galaxy bias parameters, and the velocity scaling parameter, we find fσ 8 (z = 0.25) = 0.413 ± 0.031, fσ 8 (z = 0.4) = 0.470 ± 0.026, and fσ 8 (z = 0.55) = 0.396 ± 0.022. Compared with Planck observations using a flat Lambda cold dark matter model, our results are lower by 1.9σ, 0.3σ, and 3.4σ, respectively. These results are consistent with other recent simulation-based results at nonlinear scales, including weak lensing measurements of BOSS LOWZ galaxies, two-point clustering of eBOSS LRGs, and an independent clustering analysis of BOSS LOWZ. All these results are generally consistent with a combination of ${\gamma }_{f}^{1/2}{\sigma }_{8}\approx 0.75$. We note, however, that the BOSS data is well fit assuming GR, i.e., γf = 1. We cannot rule out an unknown systematic error in the galaxy bias model at nonlinear scales, but near-future data and modeling will enhance our understanding of the galaxy–halo connection, and provide a strong test of new physics beyond the standard model.

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