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At least 577 records · Page 32

Observations of Middle Atmosphere CO from the UARS ISAMS during the Early Northern Winter 1991/92

Structure and kinematics of carbon monoxide in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (10-0.03 hPa) are studied for the early northern winter 1991/92 using the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) measurements. The study is aided by data from a 6-week parameterized-chemistry run of the Goddard Space Flight Center 3D Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM), initialized on 8 December 1991. Generally, CO mixing ratios increase with height due to the increasing source contribution from CO, photolysis. In the tropical upper stratosphere. however, a local maximum in CO mixing ratio occurs. A simple photochemical model is used to show that this feature results largely from methane oxidation. In the extratropics the photochemical lifetime of CO is long, and therefore its evolution is dictated by large-scale motion of air. evidenced by strong correlation with Ertel potential vorticity. This makes CO one of the few useful observable tracers at the stratopause level and above. Thus CO maps are used to study the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex in early January 1992. Modified Lagrangian mean mixing diagnostics are applied to ISAMS and CTM data to examine the strength of the mixing barrier at the polar vortex edge. It is demonstrated that planetary wave activity weakens the barrier. promoting vortex erosion. The vortex erosion first appears in the lower mesosphere and subsequently descends through the upper stratosphere. and is attributed to effects of planetary wave dissipation. Agreement between ISAMS and CTM is good in the horizontal distribution of CO throughout the examined period, but vertical CO gradients in the CTM weaken with time relative to the ISAMS observations.

Allen, D. R.↗

Loss of Signal Transduction and Inhibition of Lymphocyte Locomotion in a Ground-Based Model of Microgravity

Inflammatory adherence to, and locomotion through the interstitium is an important component of the immune response. Conditions such as true gravity (TG) and modeled microgravity (MMG) severely inhibit lymphocyte locomotion in vitro through gelled Type I collagen (Pellis et al., 1994, 1997). We used the rotating-wall vessel bioreactor (RWV) as a prototype for modeled microgravity. After observing that lymphocyte locomotion was severely affected in modeled microgravity, we found that polyclonal activation of lymphocytes before exposure to modeled microgravity reversed the locomotion inhibition. Phorbol myristate acetate (PMA) treatment of normal peripheral blood lymphocytes, after exposure to modeled microgravity, restored lymphocyte locomotion by 84%. Calcium ionophore had no effect on modeled microgravity-exposed lymphocytes. Therefore, the signal pathways involving calcium may not be affected by modeled microgravity. However, direct activation of Protein Kinase C (PKC) with PMA was effective in restoring locomotion in modeled microgravity almost comparable to normal levels in lymphocytes cultured in static T flasks. Thus, events either at the level of PKC or upstream are affected by modeled microgravity. Treatment of lymphocytes with mitomycin C prior to exposure to modeled microgravity, followed by PMA, restored locomotion to the same extent as nonmitomycin C-treated lymphocytes exposed to modeled microgravity (80-85%). Therefore 1) new DNA synthesis is not necessary to restore locomotion and 2) traditional activation and locomotion share common pathways up to PKC. Thereafter the signals diverge. Furthermore PMA added immediately before or after initiation of modeled microgravity prevents the loss of lymphocyte locomotion.

Sundaresan, Alamelu↗

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Livestock models↗

The Relationship Between Constraint and Ductile Fracture Initiation as Defined by Micromechanical Analyses

The use of small laboratory specimens to predict the integrity of large, complex structures relies on the validity of single parameter fracture mechanics. Unfortunately, the constraint loss associated with large scale yielding, whether in a laboratory specimen because of its small size or in a structure because it contains shallow flaws loaded in tension, can cause the breakdown of classical fracture mechanics and the loss of transferability of critical, global fracture parameters. Although the issue of constraint loss can be eliminated by testing actual structural configurations, such an approach can be prohibitively costly. Hence, a methodology that can correct global fracture parameters for constraint effects is desirable. This research uses micromechanical analyses to define the relationship between global, ductile fracture initiation parameters and constraint in two specimen geometries (SECT and SECB with varying a/w ratios) and one structural geometry (circumferentially cracked pipe). Two local fracture criteria corresponding to ductile fracture micromechanisms are evaluated: a constraint-modified, critical strain criterion for void coalescence proposed by Hancock and Cowling and a critical void ratio criterion for void growth based on the Rice and Tracey model. Crack initiation is assumed to occur when the critical value in each case is reached over some critical length. The primary material of interest is A516-70, a high-hardening pressure vessel steel sensitive to constraint; however, a low-hardening structural steel that is less sensitive to constraint is also being studied. Critical values of local fracture parameters are obtained by numerical analysis and experimental testing of circumferentially notched tensile specimens of varying constraint (e.g., notch radius). These parameters are then used in conjunction with large strain, large deformation, two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses of the geometries listed above to predict crack initiation loads and to calculate the associated (critical) global fracture parameters. The loads are verified experimentally, and microscopy is used to measure pre-crack length, crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), and the amount of stable crack growth. Results for A516-70 steel indicate that the constraint-modified, critical strain criterion with a critical length approximately equal to the grain size (0.0025 inch) provides accurate predictions of crack initiation. The critical void growth criterion is shown to considerably underpredict crack initiation loads with the same critical length. The relationship between the critical value of the J-integral for ductile crack initiation and crack depth for SECT and SECB specimens has been determined using the constraint-modified, critical strain criterion, demonstrating that this micromechanical model can be used to correct in-plane constraint effects due to crack depth and bending vs. tension loading. Finally, the relationship developed for the SECT specimens is used to predict the behavior of circumferentially cracked pipe specimens.

Panontin, Tina L.↗

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

Case, Jonathan↗

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics (DM). The constitutive equations that result from the variation of the free energy with damage are used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. Interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers after complete decohesion is prevented by the formulation of the free energy. The model is implemented into the commercial finite element code ABAQUS by means of a user-written decohesion element. Finally, the numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results.

Turon, Albert↗

A Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination in Advanced Composites under Variable-Mode Loading

A thermodynamically consistent damage model is proposed for the simulation of progressive delamination in composite materials under variable-mode ratio. The model is formulated in the context of Damage Mechanics. A novel constitutive equation is developed to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A delamination initiation criterion is proposed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation accounts for crack closure effects to avoid interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers after complete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation, and the numerical predictions are compared with experimental results obtained in both composite test specimens and structural components.

Turon, A.↗

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modelling during Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in the spring of 2003 in Colorado, USA. Initial forward model validation work is concentrating on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8 ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. This paper will focus on the ability of forward Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) modelling, combined with snowpack measurements to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan s Truck-Mounted Radiometer System at 19 and 37 GHz during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike the earlier IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. Observations of upwelling and downwelling tree radiobrightness will be used to formulate a simple model for the effect of trees within the field of view. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo s Ground- Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7). These analyses will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Kim, Edward J.↗

Containerless, Low-Gravity Undercooling of Ti-Ce Alloys in the MSFC Drop Tube

Previous tests of the classical nucleation theory as applied to liquid-liquid gap miscibility systems found a discrepancy between experiment and theory in the ability to undercool one of the liquids before the L1-L2 separation occurs. To model the initial separation process in a two-phase liquid mixture, different theoretical approaches, such as free-energy gradient and density gradient theories, have been put forth. If there is a large enough interaction between the critical liquid and the crucible, both models predict a wetting temperature (T(sub w)) above which the minority liquid perfectly wets and layers the crucible interface, but only on one side of the immiscibility dome. Materials with compositions on the other side of the dome will have simple surface adsorption by the minority liquid before bulk separation occurs when the coexistence (i.e., binoidal) line in reached. If the interaction between the critical liquid and the crucible were to decrease, T(sub w) would increase, eventually approaching the critical consolute temperature (T(sub cc)). If this situation occurs, then there could be large regions of the miscibility gap where non-perfect wetting conditions prevail resulting in droplets of L1 liquid at the surface having a non-zero contact angle. The resulting bulk structure will then depend on what happens on the surface and the subsequent processing conditions. In the past several decades, many experiments in space have been performed on liquid metal binary immiscible systems for the purpose of determining the effects that different crucibles may have on the wetting and separation process of the liquids. Potard performed experiments that showed different crucible materials could cause the majority phase to preferentially wet the container and thus produce a dispersed microstructure of the minority phase. Several other studies have been performed on immiscibles in a semi-container environment using an emulsion technique. Only one previous study was performed using completely containerless processing of immiscible metals and the results of that investigation are similar to some of the emulsion studies. In all the studies, surface wetting was attributed as the cause for the similar microstructures or the asymmetry in the ability to undercool the liquid below the binoidal on one side of the immiscibility dome. By removing the container completely from the separation process, it was proposed that the loss of the crucible/liquid interaction would produce a large shift in T(sub w) and thus change the wetting characteristics at the surface. By investigating various compositions across the miscibility gap, a change in the type and amount of liquid wetting at the surface of a containerless droplet should change the surface nucleating behavior of the droplet - whether it be the liquid-liquid wetting or the liquid-to-solid transition. Undercooling of the liquid into the metastable region should produce significant differences in the separation process and the microstructure upon solidification. In this study, we attempt to measure these transitions by monitoring the temperature of the sample by optical pyrometry. Microstructural analysis will be made to correlate with the degree of undercooling and the separation mechanisms involved.

Robinson, M. B.↗

Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on approx.25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0(deg)-90(deg)E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model's lower boundary), with an additional region of strong upward propagation developing near 180(deg)-270(deg)E. These characteristics are similar to those of Arctic wave-2 major warmings, except that during this warming, the vortex did not split below approx.600 K. The effects of poleward transport and mixing dominate modeled trace gas evolution through most of the mid- to high-latitude stratosphere, with a core region in the lower-stratospheric vortex where enhanced descent dominates and the vortex remains isolated. Strongly tilted vortices led to low-latitude air overlying vortex air, resulting in highly unusual trace gas profiles. Simulations driven with several meteorological datasets reproduced the major warming, but in others, stronger latitudinal gradients at high latitudes at the model boundary resulted in simulations without a complete vortex split in the midstratosphere. Numerous tests indicate very high sensitivity to the boundary fields, especially the wave-2 amplitude. Major warmings occurred for initial fields with stronger winds and larger vortices, but not smaller vortices, consistent with the initiation of wind-deceleration by upward-propagating waves near the poleward edge of the region where wave 2 can propagate above the jet core. Thus, given the observed 100-hPa boundary forcing, stratospheric preconditioning is not needed to reproduce a major warming similar to that observed. The anomalously strong forcing in the lower stratosphere can be viewed as the primary direct cause of the major warming.

winds↗

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗

Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

machine learning↗

CME Initiation and Reconnection

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most massive explosions in the heliosphere, and the primary drivers of geoeffective space weather. This talk will be focused on fast CMEs, which travel at Alfvenic speeds as high as 2500 km/s. These ejections are associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and energetic particles accelerated near the Sun and in interplanetary space. CMEs require sufficient energy storage, in the form of magnetic stress, and rapid release of this energy. Although it is generally agreed that magnetic reconnection is the key to fast CME initiation, different models incorporate reconnection in different ways. One promising model --- the breakout scenario --- involves reconnection in two distinct yet interconnected locations: breakout reconnection ahead of the CME, and flare reconnect ion behind it. This model has been validated through 2D and 3D MHD simulations and favorable comparison with the observed properties of many fast CMEs. I will discuss what we have learned about the onset and evolution of breakout and flare reconnect ion from recent high-resolution 2D simulations of CME initiation with adaptive mesh refinement and numerical resistivity.

Karpen, Judy T.↗

Electric Motor Noise Testing

A brief update of the progress towards RVLT Milestone L490 Initial acoustic model for kW class electric motors. A quiet loading device has been created that will allow for acoustic testing of a motor with different loads applied. Testing has also begun on a larger motor, the Scorpion SII-4020. Description of the installation of this motor as well as initial measurements reported. These include acoustic spectra and beamforming for source localization.

Cluts, Jordan↗

Processes Influencing Ozone Levels in Alaskan Forest Fires Plumes during Long-Range Transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by 3 different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, is used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data, and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume is investigated using in-situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18 percent in O3 production and 24 percent in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume towards Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport, and also, on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutants level in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume are also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes changed from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting small underestimation of photochemical processes. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the Europe boundary layer is also examined by running the model for a further 5 days, and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over this 10 days due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost due to the effects of dilution. However, measurement in several others BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be punctually significant over Europe.

Real, E.↗

Preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings - Sensitivity studies with a numerical model

The phenomenon of preconditioning for sudden stratospheric warming events is investigated using a 3D primitive equation model adapted from the model used by Rose and Brasseur (1989). In order to identify the conditions that make the flow preconditioned, the model was initialized alternately with observed and with artificially constructed 'hybrid' stratospheric flow patterns. Two observed warmings were investigated, February 1979 and February 1989. The artificially constructed hybrid flow fields used upper-level winds (above 10 mb) from one period and lower-level winds (below 10 mb) from another. The results of model simulations indicate that the flow in the lower and middle stratosphere is capable of serving as a predictor of the potential for a major sudden warming, with the occurrence of a warming depending only on the lower-level winds.

Smith, Anne K.↗

Flight Effects of Turbofan Fan Tones

This paper presents a summary and status of the ongoing development of an all-new fan tone noise prediction process. This process is being developed based on data from both the Quiet Technology Demonstrator 2 (QTD2) and the NASA/Boeing Propulsion Aeroacoustics & Aircraft System Noise (PAA/ASN) tests. The fan tone prediction model development steps are outlined, and rationale for a framework is provided. The two most significant findings of this work are how the fan tone noise correlates best with relative tip Mach number and the change in the directivity of the inlet tone noise relative to the aft. Using the framework, an initial proposed model has been developed which reduces the overall fan tone noise prediction miss on a power-level basis from +/- ~25dB to +/- ~5dB. This is expected to greatly improve the ability to predict both current and future aircraft concepts.

Fan Noise↗