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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: accounting for specific biological mechanisms

The probability that an observed cancer was caused by radiation exposure is usually estimated using cancer rates and risk models from radioepidemiological cohorts and is called assigned share (AS). This definition implicitly assumes that an ongoing carcinogenic process is unaffected by the studied radiation exposure. However, there is strong evidence that radiation can also accelerate an existing clonal development towards cancer. In this work, we define different association measures that an observed cancer was newly induced, accelerated, or retarded. The measures were quantified exemplarily by Monte Carlo simulations that track the development of individual cells. Three biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) models were applied. In the first model, radiation initiates cancer development, while in the other two, radiation has a promoting effect, i.e. radiation accelerates the clonal expansion of pre-cancerous cells. The parameters of the TSCE models were derived from breast cancer data from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For exposure at age 30, all three models resulted in similar estimates of AS at age 60. For the initiation model, estimates of association were nearly identical to AS. However, for the promotion models, the cancerous clonal development was frequently accelerated towards younger ages, resulting in associations substantially higher than AS. This work shows that the association between a given cancer and exposure in an affected person depends on the underlying biological mechanism and can be substantially larger than the AS derived from classic radioepidemiology.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating AlphaFold and deep learning for atomistic interpretation of cryo-EM maps

Abstract Interpretation of cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps requires building and fitting 3D atomic models of biological molecules. AlphaFold-predicted models generate initial 3D coordinates; however, model inaccuracy and conformational heterogeneity often necessitate labor-intensive manual model building and fitting into cryo-EM maps. In this work, we designed a protein model-building workflow, which combines a deep-learning cryo-EM map feature enhancement tool, CryoFEM (Cryo-EM Feature Enhancement Model) and AlphaFold. A benchmark test using 36 cryo-EM maps shows that CryoFEM achieves state-of-the-art performance in optimizing the Fourier Shell Correlations between the maps and the ground truth models. Furthermore, in a subset of 17 datasets where the initial AlphaFold predictions are less accurate, the workflow significantly improves their model accuracy. Our work demonstrates that the integration of modern deep learning image enhancement and AlphaFold may lead to automated model building and fitting for the atomistic interpretation of cryo-EM maps.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Initial Non-Equilibrium Porous-Media Model for CFD Simulation of Stirling Regenerators

The objective of this paper is to define empirical parameters (or closwre models) for an initial thermai non-equilibrium porous-media model for use in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for simulation of Stirling regenerators. The two CFD codes currently being used at Glenn Research Center (GRC) for Stirling engine modeling are Fluent and CFD-ACE. The porous-media models available in each of these codes are equilibrium models, which assmne that the solid matrix and the fluid are in thermal equilibrium at each spatial location within the porous medium. This is believed to be a poor assumption for the oscillating-flow environment within Stirling regenerators; Stirling 1-D regenerator models, used in Stirling design, we non-equilibrium regenerator models and suggest regenerator matrix and gas average temperatures can differ by several degrees at a given axial location end time during the cycle. A NASA regenerator research grant has been providing experimental and computational results to support definition of various empirical coefficients needed in defining a noa-equilibrium, macroscopic, porous-media model (i.e., to define "closure" relations). The grant effort is being led by Cleveland State University, with subcontractor assistance from the University of Minnesota, Gedeon Associates, and Sunpower, Inc. Friction-factor and heat-transfer correlations based on data taken with the NASAlSunpower oscillating-flow test rig also provide experimentally based correlations that are useful in defining parameters for the porous-media model; these correlations are documented in Gedeon Associates' Sage Stirling-Code Manuals. These sources of experimentally based information were used to define the following terms and parameters needed in the non-equilibrium porous-media model: hydrodynamic dispersion, permeability, inertial coefficient, fluid effective thermal conductivity (including themal dispersion and estimate of tortuosity effects}, and fluid-solid heat transfer coefficient. Solid effective thermal conductivity (including the effect of tortuosity) was also estimated. Determination of the porous-media model parameters was based on planned use in a CFD model of Infinia's Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC), which uses a random-fiber regenerator matrix. The non-equilibrium porous-media model presented is considered to be an initial, or "draft," model for possible incorporation in commercial CFD codes, with the expectation that the empirical parameters will likely need to be updated once resulting Stirling CFD model regenerator and engine results have been analyzed. The emphasis of the paper is on use of available data to define empirical parameters (and closure models) needed in a thermal non-equilibrium porous-media model for Stirling regenerator simulation. Such a model has not yet been implemented by the authors or their associates. However, it is anticipated that a thermal non-equilibrium model such as that presented here, when iacorporated in the CFD codes, will improve our ability to accurately model Stirling regenerators with CFD relative to current thermal-equilibrium porous-media models.

Tew, Roy↗
NASA NTRS1990

Diabatic forcing and initialization with assimilation of cloud and rain water in a forecast model: Methodology

The focus of this part of the investigation is to find one or more general modeling techniques that will help reduce the time taken by numerical forecast models to initiate or spin-up precipitation processes and enhance storm intensity. If the conventional data base could explain the atmospheric mesoscale flow in detail, then much of our problem would be eliminated. But the data base is primarily synoptic scale, requiring that a solution must be sought either in nonconventional data, in methods to initialize mesoscale circulations, or in ways of retaining between forecasts the model generated mesoscale dynamics and precipitation fields. All three methods are investigated. The initialization and assimilation of explicit cloud and rainwater quantities computed from conservation equations in a mesoscale regional model are examined. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed. The explicit cloud calculations were purposely kept simple so that different initialization techniques can be easily and economically tested. Precipitation spin-up processes associated with three different types of weather phenomena are examined. Our findings show that diabatic initialization, or diabatic initialization in combination with a new diabatic forcing procedure, work effectively to enhance the spin-up of precipitation in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction forecast. Also, the retention of cloud and rain water during the analysis phase of the 4-D data assimilation procedure is shown to be valuable. Without detailed observations, the vertical placement of the diabatic heating remains a critical problem.

Raymond, William H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Inversion of vegetation canopy reflectance models for estimating agronomic variables. I - Problem definition and initial results using the Suits model

An important but relatively uninvestigated problem in remote sensing is the inversion of vegetative canopy reflectance models to obtain agrophysical parameters, given measured reflectances. The problem is here formally defined and its solution outlined. Numerical nonlinear optimization techniques are used to implement this inversion to obtain the leaf area index using Suits' canopy reflectance model. The results for a variety of cases indicate that this can be done successfully using infrared reflectances at different views or azimuth angles or a combination thereof. The other parameters of the model must be known, although reasonable measurement errors can be tolerated without seriously degrading the accuracy of the inversion. The application of the technique to ground based remote-sensing experiments is potentially useful, but is limited to the degree to which the canopy reflectance model can accurately predict observed reflectances.

Goel, N.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

Estoque, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dual-purpose self-deliverable lunar surface PV electrical power system

A safe haven and work supported PV power systems on the lunar surface will likely be required by NASA in support of the manned outpost scheduled for the post-2000 lunar/Mars exploration and colonization initiative. Initial system modeling and computer analysis shows that the concept is workable and contains no major high risk technology issues which cannot be resolved in the circa 2000 to 2025 timeframe. A specific selection of the best suited type of electric thruster has not been done; the initial modeling was done using an ion thruster, but Rocketdyne must also evaluate arc and resisto-jets before a final design can be formulated. As a general observation, it appears that such a system can deliver itself to the Moon using many system elements that must be transported as dead payload mass in more conventional delivery modes. It further appears that a larger power system providing a much higher safe haven power level is feasible if this delivery system is implemented, perhaps even sufficient to permit resource prospecting and/or lab experimentation. The concept permits growth and can be expanded to include cargo transport such as habitat and working modules. In short, the combined payload could be manned soon after landing and checkout. NASA has expended substantial resources in the development of electric propulsion concepts and hardware that can be applied to a lunar transport system such as described herein. In short, the paper may represent a viable mission on which previous investments play an invaluable role. A more comprehensive technical paper which embodies second generation analysis and system size will be prepared for near-term presentation.

Arnold, Jack H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Stratospheric wind errors, initial states and forecast skill in the GLAS general circulation model

Relations between stratospheric wind errors, initial states and 500 mb skill are investigated using the GLAS general circulation model initialized with FGGE data. Erroneous stratospheric winds are seen in all current general circulation models, appearing also as weak shear above the subtropical jet and as cold polar stratospheres. In this study it is shown that the more anticyclonic large-scale flows are correlated with large forecast stratospheric winds. In addition, it is found that for North America the resulting errors are correlated with initial state jet stream accelerations while for East Asia the forecast winds are correlated with initial state jet strength. Using 500 mb skill scores over Europe at day 5 to measure forecast performance, it is found that both poor forecast skill and excessive stratospheric winds are correlated with more anticyclonic large-scale flows over North America. It is hypothesized that the resulting erroneous kinetic energy contributes to the poor forecast skill, and that the problem is caused by a failure in the modeling of the stratospheric energy cycle in current general circulation models independent of vertical resolution.

Tenenbaum, J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

T Duality and T T ¯ -like Deformations of Sigma Models

We initiate the study of the interplay between T duality and classical stress tensor deformations in two-dimensional sigma models. We first show that a general Abelian T duality commutes with the T T ¯ deformation, which can be engineered by a gravitational dressing. Then, by using an auxiliary field formulation of stress tensor deformations of the principal chiral model (PCM), we prove that non-Abelian T duality and arbitrary T T ¯ -like flows also commute for theories in this class. We argue that all such auxiliary field deformations of both the PCM and its T dual are classically integrable. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Bielli, Daniele (ORCID:0009000640034768)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Bimodal SLD Ice Accretion on a NACA 0012 Airfoil Model

An initial ice shape database has been created to document ice accretions on a 21-inch chord NACA 0012 airfoil model resulting from an exposure to a Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing cloud with a bimodal droplet distribution. The ice shapes created were documented with photographs, laser scanned surface measurements over a section of the model span, and measurement of the ice mass over the same section of each accretion. The icing conditions used in the test matrix were based upon previously measured ice shapes on the same model to connect the current database to previously measured information. Ice shapes resulting from the bimodal distribution as well as from equivalent standard droplet distributions were obtained and compared. Results indicate that the ice shapes resulting from the bimodal droplet distributions had higher mass and volume values than their standard distribution equivalents as well as having icing limits that extended further back on the chord of the model.

aircraft icing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling 238U/204Pb (μ) and Initial Pb of Lunar Meteorite Northwest Africa 12593

Apatite Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 (F, Cl, OH) serves as a valuable analytical resource. It is the only nominally hydrous phase on the moon and possesses the capacity to concentrate elements like U, Th, Pb, and rare earth elements (REE). This characteristic facilitates its use in U-Pb and Pb-Pb geochronology, allowing for the determination of the initial isotopic Pb and the -238 U/ -204 Pb ratio (μ) of the parent melt. In situ analysis of apatite grains can provide a detailed record of geochemical changes, revealing the broader petrogenetic and volatile history of the source material. This mineral is particularly informative in understanding the developmental history of its source. In situ analyses are crucial for lunar samples, predominantly composed of breccias, where correlating distinct grains with whole rock analyses poses challenges. This study utilizes in situ apatite isotopic analysis of apatite grains in lunar meteorite Northwest Africa 12593 and model the initial Pb isotopic composition and -238 U/ -204 Pb (μ) of the source. We present in situ Secondary Ionization Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) Pb-Pb analyses of 12 apatite grains in Northwest Africa (NWA) 12593 to test two hypotheses: 1) NWA 12593 clasts and matrix are closely related and from the same source, and 2) the matrix material previously documented as having a highland affinity has a lower modeled μ then KREEP.

K M Lehman Franco↗
NASA NTRS1988

Research Study: Space Shuttle Main Engine Plume Flowfield Model

The initial research effort was an in-depth analysis of the shuttle main engine plumes in an effort to improve the flowfield model and to enhance shuttle base heating equipment predictions during ascent. A prediction methodology code was developed incorporating the improved plume model into a predictive tool which could consider different trajectoreis and engine perfromance variables. Various plume flow model improvement studies were ongoing at the time of the 51-L accident. Since that time, base heating and plume methodology improvements have continued as part of the overall emphasis on Shuttle design assurance before resuming flight schedule.

Bender, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Comparison of remotely sensed continental-shelf wave spectra with spectra computed by using a wave refraction computer model

An initial attempt was made to verify the Langley Research Center and Virginia Institute of Marine Science mid-Atlantic continental-shelf wave refraction model. The model was used to simulate refraction occurring during a continental-shelf remote sensing experiment conducted on August 17, 1973. Simulated wave spectra compared favorably, in a qualitative sense, with the experimental spectra. However, it was observed that most of the wave energy resided at frequencies higher than those for which refraction and shoaling effects were predicted, In addition, variations among the experimental spectra were so small that they were not considered statistically significant. In order to verify the refraction model, simulation must be performed in conjunction with a set of significantly varying spectra in which a considerable portion of the total energy resides at frequencies for which refraction and shoaling effects are likely.

Poole, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A preliminary study of crack initiation and growth at stress concentration sites

Crack initiation and propagation models for notches are examined. The Dowling crack initiation model and the E1 Haddad et al. crack propagation model were chosen for additional study. Existing data was used to make a preliminary evaluation of the crack propagation model. The results indicate that for the crack sizes in the test, the elastic parameter K gave good correlation for the crack growth rate data. Additional testing, directed specifically toward the problem of small cracks initiating and propagating from notches is necessary to make a full evaluation of these initiation and propagation models.

Dawicke, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗