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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Reconciling Observed and Predicted Tropical Rainforest OH Concentrations

We present OH observations made in Amazonas, Brazil during the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) from February to March of 2014. The average diurnal variation of OH peaked with a midday (10:00–15:00) average of 1.0 × 10 6 (±0.6 × 10 6 ) molecules cm -3 . This was substantially lower than previously reported in other tropical forest photochemical environments (2–5 × 10 6 molecules cm -3 ) while the simulated OH reactivity was lower. The observational data set was used to constrain a box model to examine how well current photochemical reaction mechanisms can simulate observed OH. We used one near-explicit mechanism (MCM v3.3.1) and four condensed mechanisms (i.e., RACM2, MOZART-T1, CB05, CB6r2) to simulate OH. A total of 14 days of analysis shows that all five chemical mechanisms were able to explain the measured OH within instrumental uncertainty of 40% during the campaign in the Amazonian rainforest environment. Future studies are required using more reliable NO x and VOC measurements to further investigate discrepancies in our understanding of the radical chemistry in the tropical rainforest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consistent lensing and clustering in a low- S 8 Universe with BOSS, DES Year 3, HSC Year 1, and KiDS-1000

ABSTRACT We evaluate the consistency between lensing and clustering based on measurements from Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey combined with galaxy–galaxy lensing from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC) Year 1, and Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS)-1000. We find good agreement between these lensing data sets. We model the observations using the Dark Emulator and fit the data at two fixed cosmologies: Planck (S8 = 0.83), and a Lensing cosmology (S8 = 0.76). For a joint analysis limited to large scales, we find that both cosmologies provide an acceptable fit to the data. Full utilization of the higher signal-to-noise small-scale measurements is hindered by uncertainty in the impact of baryon feedback and assembly bias, which we account for with a reasoned theoretical error budget. We incorporate a systematic inconsistency parameter for each redshift bin, A, that decouples the lensing and clustering. With a wide range of scales, we find different results for the consistency between the two cosmologies. Limiting the analysis to the bins for which the impact of the lens sample selection is expected to be minimal, for the Lensing cosmology, the measurements are consistent with A = 1; A = 0.91 ± 0.04 (A = 0.97 ± 0.06) using DES+KiDS (HSC). For the Planck case, we find a discrepancy: A = 0.79 ± 0.03 (A = 0.84 ± 0.05) using DES+KiDS (HSC). We demonstrate that a kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich-based estimate for baryonic effects alleviates some of the discrepancy in the Planck cosmology. This analysis demonstrates the statistical power of small-scale measurements; however, caution is still warranted given modelling uncertainties and foreground sample selection effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Industry Requirements for Geomagnetic Disturbance Models

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improvements in Mirror Surface Measurement with Reflected Computer Vision Targets

Over the last several years, NREL has been developing a system to measure large optical surfaces of heliostat mirrors by reflecting computer vision targets. An advantage of this system, called Reflected Target Nonintrusive Assessment (ReTNA), is that it lends itself well to stitching together many images, each reflecting only part of a larger heliostat. In the last few months, this was taken to a new extreme, with a small target (<5m2) being used to measure a >25m2 long focal length heliostat. These measurements were compared with traditional fringe deflectometry methods, which require a >50m2 target, and photogrammetry. The strengths, weaknesses and limitations of ReTNA are discussed. An estimated uncertainty in this new measurement is presented, along with software improvements and a new wireless data collection system. A bill of materials for this measurement system is presented, which has been designed to use all low-cost, off-the-shelf components. Finally, the next steps for future ReTNA development are presented. Overall, ReTNA can be a valuable optics measurement system, complimentary to existing measurement techniques available for large reflective surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of a Triple Bubbler Inside Molten Salt for Pyroprocessing Safeguards Purposes

The application of a triple bubbler system within molten salt environments, specifically a eutectic mixture of LiCl-KCl, is explored for nuclear safeguards purposes, focusing on nuclear material accountancy (NMA) and holdup accountancy in pyroprocessing techniques. Traditional holdup accountancy methods, which involve periodic sampling and lengthy lead times, are being supplemented by the development of actinide sensors using electrochemistry. However, these methods alone are insufficient to meet regulatory requirements set by agencies like NRC and IAEA. The triple bubbler device measures salt level, density, and surface tension simultaneously using three dip tubes of varying diameters and heights. This study investigates the accuracy and robustness of the triple bubbler in molten salt conditions at temperatures ranging from 450-550°C. The updated bubbler design, utilizing tantalum metal and larger tube geometry, demonstrated minimal plugging and maintained measurement accuracy within acceptable uncertainties: 0.611% for depth, 1.34% for density, and approximately 40% for surface tension. Results indicate that the triple bubbler system is effective for real-time, accurate measurements in pyroprocessing environments, making it a promising tool for ensuring compliance with nuclear safeguards and supporting nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovering the nature of neutrinos: How nuclear theory will advance this grand endeavor. Final report

Why is there more matter than antimatter in the visible universe? Are neutrinos their own antiparticles? These are some of the most profound questions in science. The detection of a (0vββ) neutrinoless doublebeta decay and the measurement of its half-life is one of the most important experimental endeavors in science because it will answer these questions. Paramount to these measurements are accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties of the 0vββ-decay nuclear transitions, especially for the germanium-76 and xeon-136 nuclei, two candidate materials for building the next generation of DOE funded 0vββ-decay experiments. These predictions will guide the Office of Science’s down selection of experiments as well as aid in determining how much material is needed by these experiments. We studied a specific difficult to assess source of uncertainty that will impact coming microscopic predictions, uncertainty which arises from an incomplete yet systematically improvable model of interactions between nucleons and of nucleons with the other particles involved in decay process, referred to as the theory uncertainty. We employed a surrogate model of the germanium-76 nucleus, and its decay products, just detailed enough to adequately mimic the decaying nucleons need for a reasonable measure of this uncertainty and nothing more, avoiding the immense computational expense required in quantifying uncertainties of the full calculation. We found that microscopic calculations of this process can be expected to achieve relative theory uncertainties around 30%, including an unconstrained contribution that had the potential to spoil microscopic calculations. This results in a nearly order of magnitude on previously estimated uncertainties for this rare decay process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Binning is Sinning: Redemption for Hubble Diagram Using Photometrically Classified Type Ia Supernovae

Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) is implemented in the BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) framework to produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram (HD) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). BBC corrects for selection effects and non–SN Ia contamination, and systematic uncertainties are described by a covariance matrix with dimension matching the number of BBC redshift bins. For spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia samples, a recent "Binning is Sinning" article showed that an unbinned HD and covariance matrix reduces the systematic uncertainty by a factor of ~1.5 compared to the binned approach. Here we extend their analysis to obtain an unbinned HD for a photometrically identified sample processed with BBC. To test this new method, we simulate and analyze 50 samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with a low-redshift anchor; the simulation includes SNe Ia, and contaminants from core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia. The analysis includes systematic uncertainties for calibration and measures the dark energy equation of state parameter (w). Compared to a redshift-binned HD, the unbinned HD with nearly 2000 events results in a smaller systematic uncertainty, in qualitative agreement with BHS21, and averaging results among the 50 samples we find no evidence for a w-bias. To reduce computation time for fitting an unbinned HD with large samples, we propose an HD-rebinning method that defines the HD in bins of redshift, color, and stretch; the rebinned HD results in similar uncertainty as the unbinned case, and shows no evidence for a w-bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AGC-4 As-Run Uncertainty Analysis

The concept of measuring neutron flux (or fluence rate) with activation foils has existed since the late 1940s and is a well-used methodology. Activation foils are selected for their unique isotopic cross sections that create reaction products with desirable properties: relatively simple radioactive decay scheme, measurable quantities of gamma-rays or betas, and half-lives appropriate for the irradiation and decay durations of the experiment. The activation materials, deemed flux wires, fluence wires, dosimeters, or flux foils, are fabricated to have a mass appropriate for the irradiation as well so the measurement using a radiation detector following the irradiation is sufficient but not overwhelming in terms of total activity. Activation measurement results are expressed in terms of reaction rate, which can then be used to “adjust” the neutron spectrum. The Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC)-4 experiment contained 26 flux wire packages, each containing an iron and a niobium wire inside a vanadium capsule. For all stackup positions, the value of fast to thermal neutrons is higher than expected, but the total neutron fluence is near the predicted value of ~2 x 1022 n/cm2. As compared to the predicted neutron spectrum, there are four takeaways in the results as compared to the predicted ATR irradiation: 1) Additional fast (fission) neutrons present, 2) Spectrum hardening due to temperature, 3) Spectrum hardening due to container attenuation, 4) Total neutron fluence is close to predicted values. Since the neutron energy spectrum is a key parameter when attributing neutron damage in materials, the adjusted energy-dependent spectrum and the total neutron fluence results from the dosimeters can be incorporated for future calculations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meta-uncertainty for particle image velocimetry

Uncertainty quantification for Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) is critical for comparing experimentally measured flow fields with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results, and model design and validation. However, PIV features a complex measurement chain with coupled, non-linear error sources, and quantifying the uncertainty is challenging. Multiple assessments show that none of the current methods can reliably measure the actual uncertainty across a wide range of experiments, and estimates can vary. Because the current methods differ in assumptions regarding the measurement process and calculation procedures, it is not clear which method is best to use for an experiment where the error distribution is unknown. To address this issue, we propose a method to estimate an uncertainty method's sensitivity and reliability, termed the Meta-Uncertainty. The novel approach is automated, local, and instantaneous, and based on perturbation of the recorded particle images. We developed an image perturbation scheme based on adding random unmatched particles to the interrogation window pair considering the signal-to-noise (SNR) of the correlation plane. Each uncertainty scheme's response to several trials of random particle addition is used to estimate a reliability metric, defined as the rate of change of the inter-quartile range (IQR) of the uncertainties with increasing levels of particle addition. We also propose applying the meta-uncertainty as a weighting metric to combine uncertainty estimates from individual schemes, based on ideas from the consensus forecasting literature. We use planar and stereo PIV measurements across a range of canonical flows to assess the performance of the uncertainty schemes. Further, a novel method is introduced to assess an uncertainty scheme's performance based on a quantile comparison of the error and uncertainty distributions, generalizing the current method of comparing the RMS of the two distributions. Here, the results show that the combined uncertainty method outperforms the individual methods, and this work establishes the meta-uncertainty as a useful reliability assessment tool for PIV uncertainty quantification.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of EDGDE2D-EIRENE predicted 2D distributions of electron temperature and density against divertor Thomson scattering measurements in the low-field side divertor leg in DIII-D

Comparisons of profiles of the electron temperature (T e ), density (n e ) and pressure (p e ) measured with Divertor Thomson Scattering in DIII-D low-confinement mode discharges to predictions from the edge fluid code EDGE2D-EIRENE show that the models implemented in EDGE2D-EIRENE predict the measurements within their collective uncertainties if the T e at the separatrix (T e,sep ) is 10 eV, or higher. The simulations do not predict, however, the peaked T e and ne profiles measured adjacent to the target plate when T e,sep , is below 10 eV, i.e., for the plasma downstream from the region of ionization of deuterium atoms. Inclusion of cross-field drifts and a five-fold reduction of radial transport cannot reconcile the discrepancy between the measurements and predictions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative approaches for multiscale structural analysis with atomic resolution electron microscopy

Atomic-resolution imaging with scanning transmission electron microscopy is a powerful tool for characterizing the nanoscale structure of materials, in particular features such as defects, local strains, and symmetry-breaking distortions. In addition to advanced instrumentation, the effectiveness of the technique depends on computational image analysis to extract meaningful features from complex datasets recorded in experiments, which can be complicated by the presence of noise and artifacts, small or overlapping features, and the need to scale analysis over large representative areas. Here, we present image analysis approaches which synergize real and reciprocal space information to efficiently and reliably obtain meaningful structural information with picometer scale precision across hundreds of nanometers of material from atomic-resolution electron microscope images. Damping superstructure peaks in reciprocal space allows symmetry-breaking structural distortions to be disentangled from other sources of inhomogeneity and measured with high precision. Real-space fitting of the wavelike signals resulting from Fourier filtering enables absolute quantification of lattice parameter variations and strain, as well as the uncertainty associated with these measurements. Implementations of these algorithms are made available as an open source python package.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of W + W − production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of W + W − → e ± νμ ∓ ν production cross-sections are presented, providing a test of the predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The measurements are based on data from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The number of events due to top-quark pair production, the largest background, is reduced by rejecting events containing jets with b-hadron decays. An improved methodology for estimating the remaining top-quark background enables a precise measurement of W + W − cross-sections with no additional requirements on jets. The fiducial W + W − cross-section is determined in a maximum-likelihood fit with an uncertainty of 3.1%. The measurement is extrapolated to the full phase space, resulting in a total W + W − cross-section of 127 ± 4 pb. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of twelve observables that comprehensively describe the kinematics of W + W − events. The measurements are compared with state-of-the-art theory calculations and excellent agreement with predictions is observed. A charge asymmetry in the lepton rapidity is observed as a function of the dilepton invariant mass, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. A CP-odd observable is measured to be consistent with no CP violation. Limits on Standard Model effective field theory Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis are obtained from the differential cross-sections.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation Studies of RELAP5-3D for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Analysis Using a Refined RELAP5-3D Model of the High Temperature Test Facility

RELAP5-3D has been used extensively for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) analysis, but such analysis lies outside the validation basis for the code. Oregon State University (OSU) and the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) – Gas-cooled reactor campaign worked together to design and operate the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at OSU to provide validation data for prismatic HTGR thermal hydraulics analysis. Work using a previous RELAP5-3D model of HTTF demonstrated the ability to reproduce trends in HTTF data but an inability to reproduce the values measured in multiple experiments within the uncertainty. It was hypothesized that a new model with a finer radial nodalization would perform better for HTTF analysis. In this paper, we present the development of that more refined model and analyze HTTF experiments PG-27 and PG-29, a pressurized (PCC) and depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) transient. Comparing PG-27 results to experimental data shows a better prediction of steady state and transient temperatures; however, a deeper dive reveals that better transient temperature predictions are a result of better initial conditions. The transient temperature rise in the core is comparable between the two models, but the legacy model predicts temperatures in the reflectors better. The new model demonstrates the ability to predict unique temperatures in each sector of the core during PG-29, capturing the azimuthal asymmetry; however, the temperature predictions still differ from measured temperatures. One hypothesis is that differences between the assumed and actual power distribution leads to the underprediction of the individual block temperatures. These results suggest that gaps and uncertainties in the measured boundary conditions for the HTTF tests do not allow to fully validate RELAP5-3D for prismatic HTGR analyses. The authors suspect that some of the differences between predicted and measured temperatures may be a result of uncertainties associated with HTTF itself rather than RELAP5-3D. We demonstrated improved validation for steady-state analysis, but significantly improved transient performance has yet to be recognized.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal properties of U-Mo alloys irradiated under high fission power density

A variety of physical and thermal property measurements made on irradiated U-Mo alloy monolithic fuel samples with a Zr diffusion barrier and clad in Al alloy 6061 are reported. These properties form the basis for additional investigations in thermal behavior of U-Mo fuel under high performance research reactor irradiation conditions. Measurements were performed on samples harvested from fuel plates irradiated under high fission power density and surface heat flux and complement previous measurements on samples subjected to moderate fission power density and surface heat flux. Specific heat capacity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increases with increasing temperature and fission density, but carries large uncertainties associated with thickness measurements used to determine the mass fraction of the layer constituents for extraction of the U-Mo specific heat capacity, specifically the very thin and nonuniform Zr diffusion barrier. Density of irradiated monolithic U-Mo decreases with increasing fission density resulting from fission gas swelling and porosity formation. Thermal diffusivity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing fission density. Thermal conductivity of irradiated monolithic U-Mo increased with increasing temperature, and in general, appeared to decrease and become less sensitive to temperature with increasing fission density. Thermal conductivity measurements compared to a semi-empirical model agreed within ±30%. It is suspected that the main driver in deviation between model calculations and measurements is the fission gas swelling determination, which does not account for fission power density or irradiation temperature.

uranium (U), molybdenum, nuclear fuel, thermal con↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron Detection in the DUNE liquid argon near Detector

DUNE is a next-generation long baseline neutrino experiment [1] to perform precision measurements of neutrino oscillations. The Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) of the DUNE near detector (ND-LAr) characterizes the beam before oscillations occur and is essential to constrain the systematic uncertainties of most DUNE measurements. ND-LAr will be a modular LArTPC with pixelated charge and high-coverage light readout system

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗