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At least 577 records · Page 32

Nuclide inventory validation: radiochemical assay data quality and modeling challenges in benchmark models development

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is conducting radiochemical assay experiments, using high-precision analytical protocols validated with a comprehensive quality assurance plan, to expand the nuclide inventory validation basis for high burnup spent nuclear fuel. Preliminary measurement data for key actinides and fission products in two pressurized water reactor spent fuel samples are being used to investigate the impact of measurement data uncertainty on the sample burnup estimation. These measurement data are also being used to examine the impact of assumptions applied when developing best-estimate computational models to simulate fuel irradiation history. The simulations are being performed using depletion capabilities in the SCALE code system. Comparison of calculated and measured nuclide concentrations shows good agreement for the considered nuclides. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sources of uncertainty in direct seismological measurements of the solar helium abundance

The methods by which Dappen et al. (1988, 1990, 1991) and Dziembowski et al. (1990, 1991, 1992) recently obtained discrepant estimates of the helium abundance in the solar convection zone are compared. The aim of the investigation reported in this paper is to identify the main source of the discrepancy. Using as proxy data eigenfrequencies of a set of modes of a theoretical solar model, computed with the same physics as were the frequencies of a reference model with which these data are compared, the two methods yield similar results. Thus we ascertain that the principal source of the discrepancy is not in the inversions themselves, which yield essentially a measure of the variation of the adiabatic exponent gamma of the material in the He II ionization zone. Instead it is in the approximations adopted in the treatment of heavy elements in the equation of state used to relate the variation of gamma to chemical composition. We obtain acceptably consistent results when inverting solar data by two methods using the same equation of state. We attempt to identify the likely residual sources of uncertainty.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

Improved Primary Reference Cell Calibrations for Higher Accuracy Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Measurements

The adoption of photovoltaic (PV) modules for clean electricity relies on accurate measurements of their performance, which are essential for estimating their energy production potential. Herein, the calibration chain of PV cells and modules, with particular emphasis on primary reference cell calibrations, is discussed. Also, herein, the direct sunlight method the group has developed for these calibrations is presented and critical improvements and upgrades that lead to calibration uncertainty as low as 0.45% are discussed. The ultimate motivation behind this work is to provide low‐uncertainty performance measurements of PV modules, and lowering the calibration uncertainty of primary reference cells is a key first step toward achieving this goal. As the use of solar electricity continues to grow, the demand for primary reference cell calibrations inevitably increases beyond what the small handful of primary calibration laboratories can provide today. Therefore, this work can serve as a useful guide for implementing primary PV reference cell calibrations using the outdoor method, as well as outlining the critical elements required to make these calibrations highly accurate.

Osterwald, Carl R.↗

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Definitions for Testing Whether Evaluated Nuclear Data Relative Uncertainties are Realistic in Size

This document describes various tests that can be used to check whether evaluated relative uncertainties stored in nuclear-data covariances are realistic. To be more specific, these tests check whether nuclear-data uncertainties could be either over- or under-estimated given the input that usually enters the evaluation of nuclear-data mean values and covariances. Warning and error messages on the reliability of nuclear-data uncertainties will result from these tests. If uncertainties of one specific nuclear-data observable trigger warning messages from multiple tests, an evaluator should counter-check the reliability of the relative uncertainties of this particular nuclear-data covariance matrix.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Accounting for uncertainty sources in pyrometric measurements: Variables affecting Surface Temperature measurements using the LLNL Streak Spectrometers

Here we present a detailed analysis of the error sensitivities of the LLNL temperature analysis package used in analyzing streak spectrometer data. These sensitivities include noise, temperature, wavelength, emissivity, missing bands, and missing data points. The analysis package was tested for its ability to accurately reconstruct randomly generated noisy data and found to perform within specifications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

NOVA 201 ultrasonic thickness gage (NOVA Gage)

The measurement integrity of the NOVA 201 digital ultrasonic thickness gage (NOVA gage) was demonstrated by comparing the NOVA gage measurements to the thickness gage measurements, and determining the bias and uncertainty of the NOVA gage when measuring redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) hardware per engineering test plans (ETP). The NOVA gage was tested by three different operators on steel and aluminum RSRM hardware for wall thickness. The results show that the measurement bias is not consistent. The uncertainty of the bias is caused by the heterogeneous material properties of the RSRM components that influence the time of flight of ultrasonic waves. The measurement uncertainty inherent to the design and operation of the NOVA gage is less in comparison to the uncertainty of the bias. The total measurement uncertainty cannot be substantially reduced by taking more than one measurement. There is no correlation between bias and the surface finish range of this test unless 3-in-One oil is used as a couplant, in which case there appears to be a slight trend. There is no correlation between uncertainty and the surface finish range. The measurement uncertainty of the NOVA gage can be reduced using 3-in-One oil as a couplant.

Garecht, Diane↗

High precision measurements of the proton elastic electromagnetic form factors and their ratio at 𝑄 2 = 0.50, 2.64, 3.20, and 4.10 GeV 2

The advent of high-intensity, high-polarization electron beams led to significantly improved measurements of the ratio of the proton’s charge to electric form factors, 𝐺 𝐸⁢ 𝑝 ⁡/𝐺 𝑀⁢ 𝑝 . However, high-𝑄 2 measurements of this ratio yielded significant disagreement with extractions based on unpolarized scattering measurements, raising questions about the reliability of the measurements and consistency of the techniques. Jefferson Lab experiment E01-001 was designed to provide a high precision extraction of 𝐺 𝐸⁢ 𝑝 ⁡/𝐺 𝑀⁢ 𝑝 from unpolarized cross-section measurements using a modified version of the Rosenbluth separation technique to allow for a more precise comparison with polarization data. Rosenbluth separations involve precise measurements of the angular dependence of the elastic 𝑒−𝑝 cross section at fixed momentum transfer, 𝑄 2 . Conventional Rosenbluth separations detect the scattered electron, requiring the comparisons of measurements with very different detected electron energy and rate for electrons at different angles. Our ‘‘super-Rosenbluth’’ measurement detected the struck proton, rather than the scattered electron to extract the elastic 𝑒−𝑝 cross section. This yielded a fixed momentum for the detected particle and dramatically reduced variation of the cross section with angle, significantly reducing rate- and momentum-dependent corrections and uncertainties. We measure the cross section vs angle with high relative precision, allowing for extremely high precision extractions of 𝐺 𝐸⁢ 𝑝 ⁡/𝐺 𝑀⁢ 𝑝 at 𝑄 2 = 2.64, 3.20, and 4.10 GeV 2 . Our results are consistent with traditional Rosenbluth extractions, but with much smaller corrections and systematic uncertainties, comparable to the uncertainties from polarization measurements. Our data confirm the discrepancy between Rosenbluth and polarization extractions of the proton form factor ratio using an improved Rosenbluth extraction that yields smaller and less-correlated uncertainties than those typical of previous Rosenbluth extractions. Here, we compare our results to calculations of two-photon exchange effects and find that the observed discrepancy can be relatively well explained by such effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Completion document for MRT 8824 - Upgrade NIF’s gaseous radiochemistry diagnostics (RAGS) to support weapons science

This milestone highlights the successful upgrade and deployment of the Radiochemical Analysis of Gaseous Samples (RAGS) system, which delivers high-quality measurements (<20% uncertainty) of activated gaseous species from NIF implosions. These measurements are critical for supporting Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) relevant platforms, including LANL’s Double Shell and LLNL’s Pushered Single Shell campaigns. The RAGS diagnostic technique enables analysis of short-range mixing in implosions using high-Z shells, which are otherwise inaccessible to conventional x-ray diagnostic methods. By facilitating the investigation of high-Z material mixing into fusion burn, this system provides essential data for quantifying and interpreting results in high-energy density (HED) experiments. This report details the physics motivation, diagnostic fundamentals, planned and enacted upgrade work, and the quantification of uncertainty for the upgraded system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Uncertainties in hot-wire measurements of compressible turbulent flows implied by comparisons with laser-induced fluorescence

A hot-wire anemometer and a new nonintrusive laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) technique are used to survey a Mach 2 turbulent boundary layer. The hot-wire anemometer's ability to accurately measure mass flux, temperature, and density fluctuations in a compressible flow is examined by comparing its results with those obtained using LIF. Several methods of hot-wire calibration are used, and the uncertainties in their measurements of various fluctuating flow parameters are determined. The results show that although a hot-wire operated at high overheat can measure mass flux fluctuations, temperature and density fluctuations are not determined accurately from such measurements. However, a hot-wire operated at multiple overheats can be used to measure static and total temperature fluctuations. The presence of pressure fluctuations and their correlation with density can prevent the use of hot-wire data to determine density fluctuations.

Mckenzie, R. L.↗

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs and Impacts on Oceanic N2O Fluxes in the Northern Indian Ocean: the Need for an Integrated Observation and Modelling Approach

Anthropogenically-derived nitrogen input to the northern Indian Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades, based on both observational and model derived estimates This external nutrient source is supplied by atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, and has the potential to affect the vulnerable biogeochemical systems of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, influencing productivity and oceanic production of the greenhouse-gas nitrous-oxide (N2O). We summarize current estimates of this external nitrogen source to the northern Indian Ocean from observations and models, highlight implications for regional marine N2O emissions using model-based analyses, and make recommendations for measurement and model needs to improve current estimates and future predictions of this impact. Current observationally-derived estimates of deposition and riverine nitrogen inputs are limited by sparse measurements and uncertainties on accurate characterization of nitrogen species composition. Ocean model assessments of the impact of external nitrogen sources on regional marine N2O production in the northern Indian Ocean estimate potentially significant changes but also have large associated uncertainties. We recommend an integrated program of basin-wide measurements combined with high-resolution modeling and more detailed characterization of nitrogen-cycle process to address these uncertainties and improve current estimates and predictions.

Parvadha Suntharalingam↗

Sodium Void Worth and Control Rod Worth Measurements in ZPPR 15

Sodium void worth and control rod worth were measured in Phases A, B, C and D of the ZPPR15 experimental program. Sodium voiding was simulated by replacing stainless steel cans containing sodium by empty stainless steel cans of the same sizes. The control rod worth measurements were measurements of simulated control rods (CRs) and simulated empty control rod positions (CRPs). A CRP consisted of a 2 x 2 array of drawers filled with sodium plates. A CR consisted of a 2 x 2 array of drawers containing alternating columns of boron carbide plates and sodium plates in the front 18 inches and just sodium plates in the back 18 inches. The ZPPR staff published the measured sodium void worths and control rod worths and the statistical uncertainties in the measured values. In reality, the published uncertainty for each of these measurements is only one component of the total uncertainty. There are additional contributions from uncertainties related to measurement technique, plate compositions and reproducibility. However, the dominant uncertainty for the sodium void worth and control rod worth measurements is the uncertainty in βeff which is required to convert from the natural measurement units, cents, to the calculation units, pcm or Δ/k 1 k 2 . A full uncertainty analysis was performed for the sodium void worth and control rod worth measurements. The significant uncertainties were quantified, and a total uncertainty was derived for each sodium void worth or control rod worth measurement. The ZPPR-15 experimental records were used to create detailed as-built Monte Carlo models of the sodium void worth and control rod worth configurations. These models were used to compute the sodium void worths and control rod worths. (C/E – 1) and the related uncertainty in (C/E – 1) were derived for the measured worths.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗