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NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗

NASA NTRS2022

Introduction to Special Collection ``The Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex in 2019/2020: Causes and Consequences"

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground-based data sets and chemistry-transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far-reaching consequences of such extremes.

Artic↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗

NASA NTRS2022

Climatology of Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Residual Circulations and Mesopause Height Derived From SABER Observations

In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, residual circulations driven by gravity wave breaking and dissipation significantly impact constituent distribution and the height and temperature of the mesopause. The distribution of CO2 can be used as a proxy for the residual circulations. Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) CO2 volume mixing ratio (VMR) and temperature measurements from 2003 to 2020 are used to study the monthly climatology of MLT residual circulations and the mesopause height. Our analyses show that (a) mesopause height strongly correlates with the CO2 VMR vertical gradient during solstices; (b) mesopause height has a discontinuity at midlatitude in the summer hemisphere, with a lower mesopause height at mid-to-high latitudes as a result of adiabatic cooling driven by strong adiabatic upwelling; (c) the residual circulations have strong seasonal variations at mid-to-high latitudes, but they are more uniform at low latitudes; and (d) the interannual variability of the residual circulations and mesopause height is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH; 4–5 km) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH; 0.5–1 km).

SABER↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully-Coupled Climate Model

Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in AMOC by comparing a fully-coupled large ensemble, a forced-ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully-coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged towards reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well-captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind-nudging and forced-ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully-coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds towards observations also reduces the 1979-2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high-latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long-term AMOC changes.

AMOC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examining the Feasibility of Detailed Decomposition of Radiative Flux Anomalies to Cloud Changes

This presentation will explore the degree to which radiative flux anomalies in the last two decades seen by CERES can be interpreted as the result of changes in particular cloud types. A study of this kind is potentially enabled by the new CERES FlxByCldTyp (FBCT) product which provides combined Terra and Aqua daytime 1°-regional gridded daily and monthly top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and associated MODIS-derived cloud properties stratified by Cloud Top Pressure (CTP) and Cloud Optical Thickness (TAU), i.e., arrays of cloud properties and radiative fluxes resolved in CTP-TAU bins. It has been shown (Sun et al. 2022) that the FBCT time series of global flux anomalies tracks closely its SSF1deg and EBAF counterparts, indicating that these three products provide fluxes of consistent stability for interannual variability studies. We are thus in position to examine whether CERES regional or global radiative fluxes anomalies and trends are driven by changes in certain elements of FBCT flux arrays corresponding to particular cloud types. Anomalies in flux array elements will in turn be investigated in terms of cloud property variations within the CTP-TAU bins where the biggest flux anomalies are encountered. We will essentially seek to obtain the relative contributions to the anomalies of binned all-sky fluxes of changes in cloud fraction within cloud types and of changes in their overcast fluxes modulated by other cloud properties. Such an analysis holds great promise of unveiling the root causes of cloud-driven changes in the planetary radiation budget of the last two decades.

cloud↗

NASA NTRS2023

Convective Impact on the Global Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Budget

Water vapor in the stratosphere is primarily controlled by temperatures in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, the direct impact of deep convection on the global lower stratospheric water vapor budget is still an actively debated issue. Two complementary modeling approaches are used to investigate the convective impact in boreal winter and summer. Convective influence is diagnosed by tracing trajectories through convective cloud top altitude fields derived from global rainfall and brightness temperature data. Backward trajectory model simulations coupled with a detailed treatment of cloud microphysical processes indicate that convection moistens the global lower stratosphere by approximately 0.3 ppmv in boreal winter and summer 2010. The diurnal peak in convection is responsible for about half of the total convective moistening during winter and nearly all of the convective moistening during summer. Deep convective clouds overshooting the tropopause have relatively minor effect on global lower stratospheric water vapor. A forward trajectory model coupled with a simplified cloud module is used to estimate the relative magnitude of the interannual variability of the convective impact. Combining the results from the two models, we find that the convective impact on the global lower stratospheric water vapor during 2006-2016 is approximately 0.3 ppmv with year-to-year variations of up to 0.1 ppmv. An important mechanism of convective hydration of the lower stratosphere is via the detrainment of saturated air and ice into the tropical uppermost troposphere and the subsequent upward transport of some of these moist air parcels across relatively warm and subsaturated tropopause.

CONVECTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine learning based noise reduction for satellite products: application to solar-induced fluorescence retrievals using simulated and real data

In the past two decades, global satellite measurements of terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) have been used widely for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants. However, SIF retrievals are inherently noisy due to the relatively small SIF spectral signature in comparison with observational noise. In this work, we examine how a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network can be used to reduce noise and other artifacts in satellite level 2 (L2) products. We first apply the approach in a controlled environment in which radiance spectra are simulated with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model for different scenarios including various SIF values that are known. Various levels of noise can be added to the simulated spectra. Resulting noisy and noise-reduced SIF retrievals are compared with the true values to assess performance. We then apply the noise reduction approach to real SIF derived from instruments flying on meteorological satellites. The results are evaluated by comparing SIF retrievals from different platforms with each other and with other independent data sets, showing enhanced capability to capture seasonal and interannual variability in SIF.

Chlorophyll fluorescence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Size Distribution Assumption on PM2.5 Simulation

Aerosol particles, especially those with diameter that is smaller than 2.5um, i.e. PM2.5, have detrimental impact on public health. As a regulated criteria air pollutant, PM2.5 is monitored by ground networks using various instruments. At the same time aerosol assimilation modeling system is developed to simulate the aerosol distribution with continuous global coverage. In this study we compared the PM2.5 simulated by NASA’s MERRA-2 modeling system with the measurements made at US Embassy sites around the globe on diurnal cycle, monthly average, and interannual variabilities. We focused the comparison in the places that are significantly impacted by the desert dust. Simulations based on both aerodynamic and geometric diameters are compared with available measurements. Aerodynamic diameter assumption shows better model-observation agreements over several dust belt stations.

Qian Tan↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Mars Atmosphere Water Ice Aerosol Climatology by MRO/CRISM: 5 Mars Years of Observations

We use near-infrared spectra returned from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to provide retrievals of the column-integrated optical depth of water ice aerosols for more than 5 Martian years between Mars Year (MY) 28 at Ls = 112° (27 September 2006) and MY 33 at Ls = 213° (30 August 2016). We have developed a radiative transfer model for this purpose that retrieves aerosol opacity from the water ice aerosol feature near 3.3 μm using CRISM hyperspectral observations for the first time. The resulting retrievals well depict the main features in the water ice aerosol climatology with repeatable patterns every Martian year. The aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is observed between 10°S and 30°N, with peak optical depth around Ls = 90°. Apart from the global dust storm during MY 28, modest interannual variability in the water ice aerosol optical depth is observed in the ACB. The north polar hood is observed at latitudes poleward of 45°N throughout northern spring and summer seasons and reappears in northern winter. The south polar hood is observed in early to mid-southern autumn, reaching latitudes around 60°S, and re-emerging during southern winter between 45°S and 60°S. A lack of water ice aerosols is repeatedly seen in the southern hemisphere throughout southern spring and summer. High optical depth in the ACB is observed over the volcanoes of Olympus Mons, Elysium, and the Tharsis bulge, as well as over Hellas Basin.

Mars↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications of MERRA-2 data for avian migration, biomass burning, and dusty atmospheric rivers

Three different applications of MERRA-2 data are presented. 1) Using radar data, we introduced a new concept for spatial patterns of bird migration across the contiguous U.S. This approach allowed us to use MERRA-2 data and learn that remote forcing in the tropical Pacific—through a chain of processes including atmospheric Rossby wave trains— controls the climatic conditions, associated with bird migration in North America. 2) We showed that emissions from biomass burning in the Congo Basin are partly controlled by the low-level winds, which are in turn associated with the intensity of the subtropical high in the Indian Ocean. Using back-trajectory analysis, we found that these emissions combined with their transport mechanism explain the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa. 3) Our analysis showed that atmospheric rivers in the Middle East contribute to both heavy flood and dust transport within their corridor. We also found that warm advection and rain-on-snow effect of dusty atmospheric rivers further enhance the chance of flood through rapid snowmelt processes.

Amin Dezfuli↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Examination of Autumn Southern Polar Ozone Tendencies and the Residual Circulation in MERRA-2 Products

Changes in lower stratospheric ozone caused by dynamical transport can be difficult to characterize and thus are sometimes difficult to distinguish from chemical losses. Correlations between ozone changes and various dynamical proxies (e.g., the eddy heat flux) from year to year can be of interest, but they do little in themselves to explain the ozone transport mechanisms behind such correlations. In this study, we use products from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) to calculate the ozone mass flux, integrating it in space and time over the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric Southern polar cap during periods when little chemical loss is expected. The ozone mass flux is expressed in terms of components of the residual circulation of the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM, i.e., 𝑣𝑣̅ ∗and 𝑤𝑤(∗) as well as eddy mixing terms. We relate these terms to the local ozone mass tendency ("#! "$ ), similarly integrated, and we find that the interannual variability of the ozone changes are strongly related to the residual meridional circulation and the meridional eddy mixing terms. These directly calculated dynamical transport terms provide clearer ozone proxies. Removing these advective terms from a long-term ozone time series can more effectively reveal ozone variations and long-term trends, specifically those caused by photochemical production and losses (e.g., human-produced ozone depletion).

Ozone↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications of MERRA-2 Data for Avian Migration, Biomass Burning, and Dusty Atmospheric Rivers

Amin Dezfuli↗

NASA NTRS2015

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRS2011

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and Adjacent Seas

Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

Carton, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Interannual and Regional Variability of Southern Ocean Snow on Sea Ice and its Correspondence with Sea Ice Cover and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

Snow depth on sea ice plays a critical role in the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere because of its thermal insulation property. Furthermore, a heavy snow load on the relatively thin Southern Ocean sea-ice cover submerges the ice floes below sea level, causing snow-to-ice conversion. Snowfall is also an important freshwater source into the weakly stratified ocean. Snow depth on sea-ice information can be used as an indirect measure of solid precipitation. Satellite passive microwave data are used to investigate the interannual and regional variability of the snow cover on sea ice. In this study we make use of 12 years (1992-2003) of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiances to calculate average monthly snow depth on the Antarctic sea-ice cover. The results show a slight increase in snow depth and a partial eastward propagation of maximum snow depths, which may be related to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave.

Markus, T.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Interannual and Seasonal Variability of the Tropopause Layer over the Tropical Americas

This study explores the thermodynamic and convective characteristics of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over the Tropical Americas using multi-platform measurements collected during the last five years. This region is chosen for the following reasons: (i) it becomes the second most dominant source of air to the TTL, (ii) it exhibits the largest seasonal increase in percent contribution to stratospheric moisture, (iii) it has the warmest tropical tropopause temperatures, and (iv) it can be influenced by midlatitude and subtropical air masses that are transported equatorward by the upper-level circulation associated with the North American Monsoon. We examine the interannual and seasonal variability of water vapor, ozone, and temperature using aircraft data collected aboard the WB-57, satellite data from the Aura-MLS and Aqua-AIRS instruments, and GPS radio occultation measurements from the CHAMP satellite. We also examine the vertical extent and frequency of convection in the region using data from TRMM. In addition, we perform seasonal trajectory calculations to elucidate the origin and fate of air masses found in our region of interest.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗