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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Device Cybersecurity Characterization Process and Profile

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) recognizes that threats in the cyberspace domain continue to grow, which requires CWMD devices and supporting systems to be both cybersecure (ability to protect or defend from cyber-attacks) and resilient (ability to maintain required capability in the face of adversity) to cyber threats. The CWMD cybersecurity characterization approach in this document supports existing cyber resilience activities within the Acquisition Lifecycle Framework. Similarly, this process supports existing Department of Homeland Security Cyber Resilience Test and Evaluation activities, which consist of iterative processes, starting at the initiation of system acquisition and continuing throughout the entire device and system life cycle. Cyber resilience is the ability of an information system to continue to operate while under attack, even if in a degraded or debilitated state, and to rapidly recover operational capabilities for essential functions after a successful attack. The goal of the security characterization task for CWMD is to support the development of a CBRN device-dependent profile that aligns with device network capabilities and maps to recommended security controls to create a characterization security profile impact levels. The impact levels for CWMD devices should be characterized as Low (L), Moderate (M), High (H) to align with the low, moderate, high control baselines. To estimate the impact levels, the device’s security-related attributes are translated into the security objectives: Confidentiality (C), Integrity (I), and Availability (A), known as the CIA triad. The potential impact for each device can be L, M, H, for devices that connect and transmit different types of data and may have different impact levels. National Institute of Standards and Technology Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 199 states, “the potential impact values assigned to the respective security objectives shall be the highest value from among those security categories that have been determined for each type of information resident on the information system.” As CWMD is determining the cybersecurity impact levels of CBRN devices based on network connections and data transfers, the impact levels are aligned with the associated attributes of network connections and communications. For example, if the device system is connected to a wireless network and transmits different data types based on the confidentiality of the data, the highest impact value for each security objective should represent the device’s CIA impact level. This document is intended to be used by test managers, test team, and program managers.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

De Novo Design of a Highly Stable Ovoid TIM Barrel: Unlocking Pocket Shape towards Functional Design

The ability to finely control the structure of protein folds is an important prerequisite to functional protein design. The TIM barrel fold is an important target for these efforts as it is highly enriched for diverse functions in nature. Although a TIM barrel protein has been designed de novo, the ability to finely alter the curvature of the central beta barrel and the overall architecture of the fold remains elusive, limiting its utility for functional design. Here, we report the de novo design of a TIM barrel with ovoid (twofold) symmetry, drawing inspiration from natural beta and TIM barrels with ovoid curvature. We use an autoregressive backbone sampling strategy to implement our hypothesis for elongated barrel curvature, followed by an iterative enrichment sequence design protocol to obtain sequences which yield a high proportion of successfully folding designs. Designed sequences are highly stable and fold to the designed barrel curvature as determined by a 2.1 Å resolution crystal structure. The designs show robustness to drastic mutations, retaining high melting temperatures even when multiple charged residues are buried in the hydrophobic core or when the hydrophobic core is ablated to alanine. As a scaffold with a greater capacity for hosting diverse hydrogen bonding networks and installation of binding pockets or active sites, the ovoid TIM barrel represents a major step towards the de novo design of functional TIM barrels.

Chu, Alexander E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Active Learning Framework

Machine learning (ML) of interatomic potentials show great promise to accelerate scientific simulation, e.g., by emulating expensive computations at a high accuracy but much reduced computational cost. Training datasets are calculated from computationally expensive ab initio quantum mechanics methods, density functional theory (DFT). Trained on this data, an ML model can be very successful in predicting energy and forces for new atomic configurations. A critical factor is the quality and diversity of the training dataset. Thus, a highly automated approach to dataset construction based on active learning framework is designed suitable for material physics. The active learning scheme begins with fully randomized atomic configurations. Then, many Molecular Dynamics (MD) trajectories are simulated using current ML potentials, where each MD trajectory is initialized to a random disordered configuration. The temperature is varied in order to diversify the sampled configuration during these simulations. The variance of predictions for eight neural networks within an ensemble is analyzed to determine whether the model is operating as expected. This helps in determining whether collecting more data would be helpful to the model by checking the ensemble variance is greater than the threshold. In this case, the MD trajectory is terminated and the final atomic configuration is placed on a queue (SQL database) for DFT calculations and added to training dataset. Periodically, ML model is retrained to the updated training model. This Active Learning loop is iterated until the cost of MD simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. The MD simulations will hopefully be sufficiently robust to support nucleation after many active learning iterations. In this sense, active learning scheme must automatically discover the important low energy and nonequilibrium physics.

Nebgen, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Device Cybersecurity Characterization Process and Profile

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) recognizes that threats in the cyberspace domain continue to grow, which requires CWMD devices and supporting systems to be both cybersecure (ability to protect or defend from cyber-attacks) and resilient (ability to maintain required capability in the face of adversity) to cyber threats. The CWMD cybersecurity characterization approach in this document supports existing cyber resilience activities within the Acquisition Lifecycle Framework. Similarly, this process supports existing Department of Homeland Security Cyber Resilience Test and Evaluation activities, which consist of iterative processes, starting at the initiation of system acquisition and continuing throughout the entire device and system life cycle. Cyber resilience is the ability of an information system to continue to operate while under attack, even if in a degraded or debilitated state,1 and to rapidly recover operational capabilities for essential functions after a successful attack.2 The goal of the security characterization task for CWMD is to support the development of a CBRN device-dependent profile that aligns with device network capabilities and maps to recommended security controls to create a characterization security profile impact levels. The impact levels for CWMD devices should be characterized as Low (L), Moderate (M), High (H) to align with the low, moderate, high control baselines. To estimate the impact levels, the device’s security-related attributes are translated into the security objectives: Confidentiality (C), Integrity (I), and Availability (A), known as the CIA triad. The potential impact for each device can be L, M, H, for devices that connect and transmit different types of data and may have different impact levels. National Institute of Standards and Technology Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 199 states, “the potential impact values assigned to the respective security objectives shall be the highest value from among those security categories that have been determined for each type of information resident on the information system.”3 As CWMD is determining the cybersecurity impact levels of CBRN devices based on network connections and data transfers, the impact levels are aligned with the associated attributes of network connections and communications. For example, if the device system is connected to a wireless network and transmits different data types based on the confidentiality of the data, the highest impact value for each security objective should represent the device’s CIA impact level. This document is intended to be used by test managers, test team, and program managers.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

DOE BSSD Performance Management Metrics Report Q1

Microbes play key roles in our biosphere, from driving global nutrient cycling to impacting plant, animal and human health and disease. Complex data from microbial genomes, proteins, and metabolites provide a window into these tiny engines that drive life on our planet. Yet these data are dispersed among researchers’ laboratories and various repositories, making it difficult to access. This calls for new ways of managing data, improving data interoperability, advancing community standards, and creating an infrastructure where data are shared efficiently. We have built the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) to advance how scientists create, use, and reuse data to redefine the way we understand and harness the power of microbes. The vision of the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) is to drive a microbiome data sharing network connecting data, people, and ideas to advance microbiome innovation and discovery. The NMDC was launched in 2019 and brought together DOE National Laboratories to collaborate across resources, capabilities, and expertise. The NMDC team was strategically assembled to include software developers, microbial researchers, metadata experts, and multi-omics specialists. The diversity of the NMDC team reflects the inherently interdisciplinary nature of microbiome science, and we leverage the strengths of the DOE National Laboratory system. Towards BER’s goal of advancing an iterative systems biology approach to the understanding of microbial genomes, the NMDC serves as a foundation for infrastructure, data standards, and community building. Together with the flagship DOE User Facilities, the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), we are developing core capabilities in metadata standards for environmental descriptors and sample handling and processing; standardized bioinformatic workflows; an interface for data search and access; and robust community engagement activities. The NMDC production platform supports long-term data infrastructure and community building for BER’s bioenergy and environmental research goals. Our approach leverages lessons learned and an ambitious framework for collaborative, interdisciplinary data infrastructure to support microbiome research. The NMDC supports data, information, and knowledge access through three defined software tools – the Submission Portal, NMDC EDGE, and the Data Portal – driven by community needs. Herein, we describe the value proposition for the microbiome research community, our overarching strategy, and challenges and opportunities for developing the NMDC as both an infrastructure and community engagement program.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek A Whitman↗

NASA NTRS2023

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

Gerek Whitman↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control simulations of many-body quantum systems by a synergism of discrete real-time learning and optimal control theory

We present a self-consistent algorithm for optimal control simulations of many-body quantum systems. The algorithm features a two-step synergism that combines discrete real-time machine learning (DRTL) with Quantum Optimal Control Theory (QOCT) using the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. Specifically, in step (1), DRTL is employed to identify a compact working space (i.e., the important portion of the Hilbert space) for the time evolution of the many-body quantum system in the presence of a control field (i.e., the initial or previously updated field), and in step (2), QOCT utilizes the DRTL-determined working space to find a newly updated control field for a chosen objective. Steps 1 and 2 are iterated until a self-consistent control objective value is reached such that the resulting optimal control field yields the same targeted objective value when the corresponding working space is systematically enlarged. Furthermore, to demonstrate this two-step self-consistent DRTL-QOCT synergistic algorithm, we perform optimal control simulations of strongly interacting 1D as well as 2D Heisenberg spin systems. In both scenarios, only a single spin (at the left end site for 1D and the upper left corner site for 2D) is driven by the time-dependent control fields to create an excitation at the opposite site as the target. It is found that, starting from all spin-down zero excitation states, the synergistic method is able to identify working spaces and convergence of the desired controlled dynamics with just a few iterations of the overall algorithm. In the cases studied, the dimensionality of the working space scales only quasi-linearly with the number of spins.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Plan It Together: Optimizing Across Generation, Transmission, Distribution, and Distributed Energy Resources

Integrated planning holds the promise of unlocking lower total system cost solutions by connecting previously siloed planning processes. This article summarizes the state of bulk and local grid planning today and details multiple new analytical approaches that can enable more holistic planning methods to develop comprehensive solutions to generation, transmission, distribution, and distributed energy resource needs. These include both iterative approaches as well as cooptimization techniques. In addition to the benefits of these methods, the technical and institutional challenges and associated solutions are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elevating SolTrace's Capabilities for the Next Generation of Concentrating Solar Analysis

SolTrace is an open-source Monte Carlo ray tracing software developed at NREL. SolTrace can characterize concentrating solar thermal (CST) collector optical performance and is CST technology agnostic. Shown in Fig. 1, SolTrace is a foundational tool in NREL's CST system and component modeling suite. SolTrace's generic surface elements can flexibly model novel collector and receiver designs to predict spatial and temporal flux distributions - critical to understand for CST component design, performance prediction, and system integration. Since its initial development, SolTrace has over 1,650 references on Google Scholar, over 9,800 downloads since 2017, and has served the CST research and development community as a benchmark of 3rd party verification. SolTrace provides users with many options for defining surface shape and boundaries. However, SolTrace provides limited documentation which can result in a steep learning curve for new users. Additionally, SolTrace lacks the computational performance required to evaluate optical performance of a CST system over the course of a year and/or iteratively over design parameters in a timely manner. To address this, we are working towards a new release of SolTrace that enables increased computational throughput by implementing ray tracing acceleration structures and enabling GPU parallelization. Additionally, we are working to improve SolTrace's usability, accessibility, and maintainability by (1) automating solar position time-dependent simulation processes, (2) creating general CST collector templates of grouped elements, (3) updating the user interface to better visualize model inputs and outputs, and (4) creating a user support network through forums, "how to" videos, and documentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of double stub tuner control stability in a many element phased array antenna with strong cross-coupling

Active stub tuning with a fast ferrite tuner (FFT) allows for the system to respond dynamically to changes in the plasma impedance such as during the L-H transition or edge localized modes (ELMs), and has greatly increased the effectiveness of fusion ion cyclotron range of frequency systems. A high power waveguide double-stub tuner is under development for use with the Alcator C-Mod lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) system. Exact impedance matching with a double-stub is possible for a single radiating element under most load conditions, with the reflection coefficient reduced from Γ to Γ{sup 2} in the “forbidden region.” The relative phase shift between adjacent columns of a LHCD antenna is critical for control of the launched n{sub ∥} spectrum. Adding a double-stub tuning network will perturb the phase of the forward wave particularly if the unmatched reflection coefficient is high. This effect can be compensated by adjusting the phase of the low power microwave drive for each klystron amplifier. Cross-coupling of the reflected power between columns of the launcher must also be considered. The problem is simulated by cascading a scattering matrix for the plasma provided by a linear coupling model with the measured launcher scattering matrix and that of the FFTs. The solution is advanced in an iterative manner similar to the time-dependent behavior of the real system. System performance is presented under a range of edge density conditions from under-dense to over-dense and a range of launched n{sub ∥}.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using active learning to improve quasar identification for the DESI spectra processing pipeline

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey uses an automatic spectral classification pipeline to classify spectra. QuasarNET is a convolutional neural network used as part of this pipeline originally trained using data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). In this paper we implement an active learning algorithm to optimally select spectra to use for training a new version of the QuasarNET weights file using only DESI data, with the goal of improving classification accuracy. This active learning algorithm includes a novel outlier rejection step using a Self-Organizing Map to ensure we label spectra representative of the larger quasar sample observed in DESI. We perform two iterations of the active learning pipeline, assembling a final dataset of 5600 labeled spectra, a small subset of the approximately 1.3 million quasar targets in DESI's Data Release 1. When splitting the spectra into training and validation subsets we achieve similar performance to the previously trained weights file in completeness and purity calculated on the validation dataset but do so with less than one tenth of the amount of training data. The new weights also more consistently classify objects in the same way when used on unlabeled data compared to the old weights file. In the process of improving QuasarNET's classification accuracy we discovered a systemic error in QuasarNET's redshift estimation and used our findings to improve our understanding of QuasarNET's redshifts.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Calibration and Data Reduction of Multi-Hole Probes

This work presents procedures to implement machine learning methods in the existing algorithms for multi-hole probe calibrations and data reduction. It is shown here, that utilizing artificial neural networks (ANNs) can reduce the amount of calibration data that needs to be acquired in order to obtain a specific calibration uncertainty, by more than 50% while simultaneously reducing data reduction times significantly. ANNs were used instead of the surface fitting methods, where first, the directional calibration coefficients related to the flow angles are calculated based on the pressure measurements, and then the flow angles are used as a set of the input parameters for the following ANNs to define Mach number and static and total pressure iteratively. In a second approach, novel calibration coefficients were used to directly relate the pressure measurements from five-hole probe to the quantities of interest thus, eliminating the need for iterative algorithms used in the conventional surface fitting methods. The advantageous features of this method are an average increase of less than 1% in the calibration uncertainty for flow angles and significant reduction of the data reduction times (few seconds). In addition, we confirmed the methodology to avoid over-fitting and under-fitting.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

CO2 Valorization via Rewiring Carbon Metabolic Network

Energizing the world sustainably requires revolutionizing the way we harness natural resources. New renewable technologies include the microbiological upgrading of CO2, the primary greenhouse gas that causes climate change. This project aims to develop a new bioeconomy by taking up CO2 and converting it into high-value products using an autotrophic microbe. Specifically, the team constructed an acetogenic bacterium, Clostridium ljungdahlii, and developed gas fermentation processes that convert syngas (CO2/H2/CO) to the platform compound 3-hydroxybutyrate (3HB). The project has achieved several key successes, including the design and construction of 3HB genes in the gas-fermenting bacterium, the identification of a native 3HB pathway, the conversion of syngas to 3HB through strain engineering, and the improvement of the conversion through rational and iterative strain development. The optimized strain has achieved industry-relevant production rates (0.1 g/L/h) and titers (9.2 g/L), and sustained continuous gas fermentation for 3HB production for > 50 days in a bench-top gas bioreactor. The project has both industrial and scientific implications, including the exploitation of host microbes and processes to improve industrial-scale production of value-added compounds from CO2, and the promotion of gas fermentation technology. The team is also strengthening R&D synergies with other teams and industrial partners in the CO2 consortium, developing cutting-edge approaches for rapid and rational engineering of gas-fermenting hosts, and dissecting the thermodynamics and kinetics of processes for biological syngas valorization. So far, one patent application and one research article have resulted from this work, and the team anticipates additional significant outcomes from this project.

3-hydroxybutyrate↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Data-Driven Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion With Field Data Study

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI), which uses iterative methods to estimate high-resolution subsurface models from seismograms, is a powerful imaging technique in exploration geophysics. In recent years, the computational cost of FWI has grown exponentially due to the increasing size and resolution of seismic data. Moreover, it is a nonconvex problem and can encounter local minima due to the limited accuracy of the initial velocity models or the absence of low frequencies in the measurements. To overcome these computational issues, we develop a multiscale data-driven FWI method based on fully convolutional networks (FCNs). In preparing the training data, we first develop a real-time style transform method to create a large set of synthetic subsurface velocity models from natural images. We then develop two convolutional neural networks with encoder-decoder structures to reconstruct the low- and high-frequency components of the subsurface velocity models, separately. To validate the performance of our data-driven inversion method and the effectiveness of the synthesized training set, we compare it with conventional physics-based waveform inversion approaches using both synthetic and field data. Finally, these numerical results demonstrate that, once our model is fully trained, it can significantly reduce the computation time and yield more accurate subsurface velocity models in comparison with conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Project Boeing SGS (Final Report)

Boeing and its partner, PJM Interconnection, teamed to bring advanced “defense-grade” technologies for cyber security to the US regional power grid through demonstration in PJM’s energy management environment. Under this cooperative project with the Department of Energy, Boeing and PJM have developed and demonstrated a host of technologies specifically tailored to the needs of PJM and the electric sector as a whole. The team has demonstrated to the energy industry a combination of processes, techniques and technologies that have been successfully implemented in the commercial, defense, and intelligence communities to identify, mitigate and continuously monitor the cyber security of critical systems. Guided by the results of a Cyber Security Risk-Based Assessment completed in Phase I, the Boeing-PJM team has completed multiple iterations through the Phase II Development and Phase III Deployment phases. Multiple cyber security solutions have been completed across a variety of controls including: Application Security, Enhanced Malware Detection, Security Incident and Event Management (SIEM) Optimization, Continuous Vulnerability Monitoring, SCADA Monitoring/Intrusion Detection, Operational Resiliency, Cyber Range simulations and hands on cyber security personnel training. All of the developed and demonstrated solutions are suitable for replication across the electric sector and/or the energy sector as a whole. Benefits identified include; Improved malware and intrusion detection capability on critical SCADA networks including behavioral-based alerts resulting in improved zero-day threat protection; Improved Security Incident and Event Management system resulting in better threat visibility, thus increasing the likelihood of detecting a serious event; Improved malware detection and zero-day threat response capability; Improved ability to systematically evaluate and secure in house and vendor sourced software applications; Improved ability to continuously monitor and maintain secure configuration of network devices resulting in reduced vulnerabilities for potential exploitation; Improved overall cyber security situational awareness through the integration of multiple discrete security technologies into a single cyber security reporting console; Improved ability to maintain the resiliency of critical systems in the face of a targeted cyber attack of other significant event; Improved ability to model complex networks for penetration testing and advanced training of cyber security personnel

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Repair and Resource Scheduling in Unbalanced Distribution Systems Using Neighborhood Search

—This paper proposes an optimization strategy to assist utility operators to recover power distribution systems after large outages. Specifically, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed for co-optimizing crews, resources, and network operations. The MILP model coordinates damage isolation, network reconfiguration, distributed generator re-dispatch, and crew/resource logistics. In addition, a framework for integrating different types of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the restoration process is developed. We consider two different types of crews, namely, line crews for damage repair and tree crews for obstacle removal. We also model the repair resource logistic constraints. Furthermore, a new algorithm is developed for solving the distribution system repair and restoration problem (DSRRP). The algorithm starts by solving DSRRP using an assignmentbased method, then a neighborhood search method is designed to iteratively improve the solution. The proposed method is validated on modified IEEE 123- and 8500-bus distribution test systems.

Outage management↗

DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator

Designing manufacturing processes with high yield and strong reliability relies on effective methods for rare event estimation. Genealogical importance splitting reduces the variance of rare event probability estimators by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is difficult when applied to deterministic systems where the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. However, this random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems while failing for others, preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. This work seeks to address this limitation using a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The proposed GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗