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NASA NTRS2003

MGS/TES-Odyssey/THEMIS-IR Analysis of Localized Low Albedo Regions in Valles Marineris

We are conducting a systematic analysis of small (approximately 10's of km), localized regions in Valles Marineris that display significant albedo differences relative to their surroundings. This analysis is based on a finding that the locations of the hematite deposits identified by [1] in the interior layered deposits of Valles Marineris typically coincide with regions having a low MGS/TES visible bolometric albedo [1,2]. Until recently, it was difficult to identify the morphology or geologic context of the regions containing the hematite deposits. However, with the recent advent of high-resolution (1/128 /pixel) MOLA grided topography and Mars Odyssey s THEMIS-IR instrument, it has been possible to better understand the morphologic context of TES observations. This analysis combines the use of PDS-released data from the MGS/TES visible bolometer and infrared spectrometer, the Odyssey/THEMIS Infrared imager, and MOLA grided topography. First, the TES infrared bolometer is used to identify regions of interesting albedo variability, and is overlaid on Viking controlled photomosaics for context. THEMIS-IR data, in conjunction with MOLA topography, is then used to: 1) identify the context and morphology of the area; and 2) identify spectrally unique regions at the km scale. In preparation for the latter, all the THEMIS planes are coregistered using an autocorrelation routine, the data are converted to brightness temperature and then each plane is normalized to the brightness temperature of the third plane (1261 cm-1). We then perform a 3-band search for color variations and a Principle Components Analysis (PCA) of the 8 unique bands in the THEMIS-IR dataset. Any variability is then investigated using both THEMIS-IR and TES spectra of the same regions. In both cases, the spectra are ratioed to near-simultaneously acquired spectra of adjacent or "average" regions that do not show this albedo variation, therefore allowing us to identify spectral variability unique to the area of interest. This procedure also allows us to account for calibration problems in THEMIS-IR data, and for any atmospheric effects in both the THEMIS-IR and the TES data.

E Z Noe Dobrea↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparisons and Contrasts Between Mediterranean Flood-Producing Orographic Storms and Tropical Cyclones Modified by Complex Orography

Often, late-year, flood-producing storms in the Mediterranean Alps region arise from baroclinic disturbances developing on westerly longwaves, with the incipient storm circulations appearing well west of the flood zone. Regardless of the genesis locations and before the storms begin their flow interactions with the orography of the Mediterranean Alps, a process which can produce intense long-lived rainfall over the mountainous terrain of Italy and France, most of their moisture is drawn from warm Mediterranean waters while important elements of their thermodynamic structure are derived from airmass properties originating in north Africa and the Mediterranean basin itself. In fact, because of strong thermodynamic contrasts between the baroclinic zone producing the incipient disturbance and high potential temperature air from the south advecting into and wrapping around the storm center, a Mediterranean storm whose origins are from an evolving shortwave baroclinic perturbation, can become a quasi-warm core hybrid in term of its energetics composition, a process somewhat akin to the development of polar lows. This process begs the question of whether there are similarities between the autumn-winter season flood producing storms of the Mediterranean Alps and warm core tropical cyclones which become altered dynamically and thermodynamically by landfall over steep orographic terrain. This study investigates, from a comparison and contrast perspective, how the similarities and differences between the two types of storms manifest themselves over their respective life cycles. Before the orographically-induced precipitation-release stage in which both types of storm have evolved to the same hydrometeorlogical conclusion, the two storm categories are transforming from entirely distinctive origins, i.e., the classic eastward traveling, baroclinic mid-latitude cyclone forming in western Europe, and the classic eastward-traveling, warm core tropical cyclone developing in the western Pacific. The analyses use high resolution, nonhydrostatic model simulations, satellite data, and various types of ground data to conduct the study. The flood events of Piemonte- 2000 in northern Italy and Typhoon Rusa-2002 in South Korea are selected to focus the analysis on well documented meteorological events.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Science Enabling Roles and Services of SPDF

The current Heliophysics Science Data Management Policy defines the roles of the Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project as a heliophysics active Final Archive, a focus for critical data infrastructure services and a center of excellence for data and ancillary information services. This presentation will highlight some of our current activities and our understanding of why and how our services are useful to researchers, as well as SPDF's programmatic emphasis in the coming year. We will discuss how. in cooperation with the Heliophysics Virtual discipline Observatories (VxOs), we are working closely with the RBSP and MMS mission teams to support their decisions to use CDF as a primary format for their public data products, to leverage the ongoing data flows and capabilities of CDAWeb (directly and through external clients such as Autoplot) to serve their data in a multi-mission context and to use SSCWeb to assist community science planning and analysis. Among other current activities, we will also discuss and demonstrate our continuing effort to make the Virtual Space Physics Observatory (VSPO) service comprehensive in all significant and NASA relevant heliophysics data. The OMNI and OMNI High Resolution datasets remain current and heavily cited in publications. We are expanding our FTP file services to include online archived non-CDF data from all active missions, which is a re-hosting of this function from NSSDC's FTP site. We have extended the definitions of time in CDF to unambiguously and consistently handle leap seconds. We are improving SSCWeb for much faster per1ormance, more capabilities and a web services inter1ace to Query functionality. We will also review how CDAWeb data can be easily accessed within IDL and new features in CDAWeb.

McGuire, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observation of Bernstein Waves Excited by Newborn Interstellar Pickup Ions in the Solar Wind

A recent examination of 1.9 s magnetic field data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in transit to Jupiter revealed several instances of strongly aliased spectra suggestive of unresolved high-frequency magnetic fluctuations at 4.4 AU. A closer examination of these intervals using the highest resolution data available revealed one clear instance of wave activity at spacecraft frame frequencies from 0.2 to 1 Hz. Using various analysis techniques, we have characterized these fluctuations as Bernstein mode waves excited by newborn interstellar pickup ions. We can find no other interpretation or source consistent with the observations, but this interpretation is not without questions. In this paper, we report a detailed analysis of the waves, including their frequency and polarization, that supports our interpretation.

magnetic fields↗
NASA NTRS2017

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

MERRA-↗
NASA NTRS2017

Vegetation Classification of Coffea on Hawaii Island using Worldview-2 Satellite Imagery

Coffee is an important crop in tropical regions of the world; about 125 million people depend on coffee agriculture for their livelihoods. Understanding the spatial extent of coffee fields is useful for management and control of coffee pests such as Hypothenemus hampei and other pests that use coffee fruit as a host for immature stages such as the Mediterranean fruit fly, for economic planning, and for following changes in coffee agroecosystems over time. We present two methods for detecting Coffea arabica fields using remote sensing and geospatial technologies on WorldView-2 high-resolution spectral data of the Kona region of Hawaii Island. The first method, a pixel-based method using a maximum likelihood algorithm, attained 72% producer accuracy and 69% user accuracy (68% overall accuracy) based on analysis of 104 ground truth testing polygons. The second method, an object-based image analysis (OBIA) method, considered both spectral and textural information and improved accuracy, resulting in 76% producer accuracy and 94% user accuracy (81% overall accuracy) for the same testing areas. We conclude that the OBIA method is useful for detecting coffee fields grown in the open and use it to estimate the distribution of about 1050 hectares under coffee agriculture in the Kona region in 2012.

Gaertner, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2022

Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Consensus Precipitation Estimates over High Mountain Asia

Precipitation estimates are highly uncertain in complex regions such as High-Mountain Asia (HMA), where ground measurements are very difficult to obtain, and atmospheric dynamics poorly understood. Though gridded products derived from satellite-based observations and/or reanalysis can provide temporally and spatially distributed estimates of precipitation, there are significant inconsistencies in these products. As such, to date, there is little agreement in the community on the best and most accurate gridded precipitation product in HMA, which is likely area dependent because of HMA’s strong heterogeneities and complex orography. Targeting these gaps, this article presents the development of a consensus ensemble precipitation product using three gridded precipitation datasets (the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrieals for Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations CHIRPS, and the ECMWF Reanalysis ERA5) with a localized probability matched mean (LPM) approach. We evaluate the performance of the LPM estimate along with a simple ensemble mean (EM) estimate to overcome the differences and disparities of the three selected constituent products on long-term averages and trends in HMA. Our analysis demonstrates that LPM reduces the high biases embedded in the ensemble members and provides more realistic spatial patterns compared to EM. LPM is also a good alternative for merging data products with different spatio-temporal resolutions. By filtering disparities among the individual ensemble members, LPM overcomes the problem of a certain product performing well only in a particular area and provides a consensus estimate with plausible temporal trends.

Fadji Z Maina↗
NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of SMAP Products for Improving Streamflow Simulations over Tropical Climate Region—Is Spatial Information More Important Than Temporal Information?

Streamflow is one of the key variables in the hydrological cycle. Simulation and forecasting of streamflow are challenging tasks for hydrologists, especially in sparsely gauged areas. Coarse spatial resolution remote sensing soil moisture products (equal to or larger than 9 km) are often assimilated into hydrological models to improve streamflow simulation in large catchments. This study uses the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique to assimilate SMAP soil moisture products at the coarse spatial resolution of 9 km (SMAP 9 km), and downscaled SMAP soil moisture product at the higher spatial resolution of 1 km (SMAP 1 km), into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the usefulness of different spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed soil moisture products in streamflow simulation and forecasting. The experiment was set up for eight catchments across the tropical climate of Vietnam, with varying catchment areas from 267 to 6430 km^2 during the period 2017–2019. We comprehensively evaluated the EnKF-based SWAT model in simulating streamflow at low, average, and high flow. Our results indicated that high-spatial resolution of downscaled SMAP 1 km is more beneficial in the data assimilation framework in aiding the accuracy of streamflow simulation, as compared to that of SMAP 9 km, especially for the small catchments. Our analysis on the impact of observation resolution also indicates that the improvement in the streamflow simulation with data assimilation is more significant at catchments where downscaled SMAP 1 km has fewer missing observations. This study is helpful for adding more understanding of performances of soil moisture data assimilation based hydrological modelling over the tropical climate region, and exhibits the potential use of remote sensing data assimilation in hydrology.

soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spectral variations in a collection of AVIRIS imagery

The advent of AVIRIS presents to the scientific community the first opportunity to examine high quality hyperspectral data over areas of interest, while recent developments promise even better data in the future. With these data we may address questions such as: (1) Is such high spectral resolution (0.01 micron) necessary?; and (2) How can we take advantage of the AVIRIS experience in specifying an improved future Landsat satellite? In this paper we describe the use of relatively broadband measurements (20-50 nm) to represent spectral variability. The problem of generality is addressed through consideration of 28 AVIRIS scenes, although analysis of additional areas is clearly desirable. Section 2 defines the expansion of spectra in terms of basis functions, section 3 describes the application to AVIRIS data, and the conclusion, section 4, relates these preliminary results to possible future remote sensing instrumentation such as the planned Landsat 8.

Price, John C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Water-Rock Interactions in Outer Solar System Bodies: Evidence from the Coordinated Analysis of Interplanetary Dust

NASA has an ongoing program of collecting interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) in the stratosphere using high altitude research aircraft. The collected IDPs are derived from asteroids and comets and here we report studies of a subset of hydrated IDPs rich in carbonaceous matter that are proposed to have a cometary origin. Our studies are aimed at understanding the evolution of oxygen reservoirs in the Solar System and their interaction with cometary minerals and organic matter. The small size (<20 μm) and fragility of these IDPs present a number of analytical challenges. We have pioneered techniques for performing chemical, mineralogical, isotopic, and spectroscopic measurements on the same sample in a carefully coordinated sequence. Coordinated analyses of nanogram-size samples is made possible by several delicate sample preparation techniques. To avoid organic contamination, we embed IDPs in elemental sulfur and use ultramicrotomy to partly section the particles (the first few micrometers). Multiple thin sections (50-70 nm thick) are placed on different substrates depending on the analysis technique. We use a JEOL 2500SE scanning, transmission electron microscope (STEM) to determine the mineralogy, microstructure, and elemental compositions of constituent minerals in the thin sections through a combination of high resolution imaging, electron diffraction, quantitative energy-dispersive x-ray mapping, and electron energy-loss spectroscopy. Following the STEM analyses, we use a NanoSIMS 50L for high spatial resolution isotopic measurements of H, C, N, and O to search for presolar grains and to understand the origin of the indigenous organic matter. The isotopic analyses are performed on the same sections analyzed in the STEM in order to correlate isotopic properties with the elemental and mineralogical data. We reserve other thin sections for non-destructive analyses utilizing synchrotron-based techniques including Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) micro-spectroscopy and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) analyses, especially for functional group analysis of organic matter in the particles. The remainder of the IDP is extracted from the sulfur bead that was used for microtomy and is pressed into Au foil for quantitative analysis (including light elements) using a JEOL 8530F field emission electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA). After the EPMA measurements, high precision oxygen isotopic analyses are obtained using Cameca IMS1270/1290 instruments at UCLA. The hydrated IDPs in this study are dominated by saponitic clays, with minor magnetite, carbonate and abundant organic matter. The remarkable oxygen isotopic compositions, high carbon contents, and the abundance of isotopically anomalous organic matter, together suggest that the high carbon, hydrated IDPs are derived from primitive sources not yet represented in meteorite collections such as outer main belt P- and D-type asteroids or comets.

Keller, Lindsay P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analysis Ready Data in Analytics Optimized Data Stores for Analysis of Big Earth Data in the Cloud

Cloud computing offers the possibility of making the analysis of Big Data approachable for a wider community due to affordable access to computing power, an ecosystem of usable tools for parallel processing, and migration of many large datasets to archives in the cloud, allowing data-proximal computing. Generally, data analysis acceleration in the cloud comes from running multiple nodes in a split-combine-apply strategy. Data systems such as the Earth Observing System Data and Information System are in a position to "pre-split" the data by storing them in a data store that is optimized for data parallel computing, i.e., an Analytics-Optimized Data Store (AODS). A variety of approaches to AODS are possible, from highly scalable databases to scalable filesystems to data formats optimized for cloud access (e.g., zarr and cloud-optimized datasets), with the optimal choice dependent on both the types of analysis and the geospatial structure of the data. A key question is how much preprocessing of the data to do, both before splitting and as the first part of the apply step. Again, the geospatial structure of the data and the analysis type influence the decision, with the added complexity of the user type. Trans-disciplinary users who are not well-versed in the nuances of quality-filtering and georeferencing of remote sensing orbit/swath/scene data tend to ask for more highly processed data, relying on the data provider to make sensible decisions on preprocessing parameters. (This accounts for the popularity of "Level 3" gridded data, despite the lower spatial resolution it provides.) In this case, data can be preprocessed before the split, resulting in higher performance in the rest of the "apply" step, which can be transformative for use cases such as interactive data exploration at scale. Discipline researchers who are experienced with remote sensing data often prefer more flexibility in customizing the preprocessing data into Analysis Ready Data, resulting in more need for on-the-fly preprocessing.

Lynnes, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS1999

Atomic Data Needs for X-Ray Astronomy

This publication contains written versions of most of the invited talks presented at the workshop on Atomic Data Needs for X-ray Astronomy which was held at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center on December 16-1 7 1999. The idea of hosting such a workshop emerged from an imminent need to update and complete current atomic datasets in anticipation of a new era of high quality X-ray spectra starting with the launching of Chandra and XMM-Newton observatories. At first, our vision of the workshop was of a short and limited attendance event, given the specialization of the topic. But it, was soon realized, from the response to the first workshop announcement, that the topic was of much interest, to researchers working in X-ray spectra (physicists and astronomers). As a result, the workshop grew to approximately 120 participants from several countries. The kind of atomic data that interests us are those parameters needed for analysis and modeling of spectra shortward of about about 100 A and relevant to ionic species of astronomical interest. The physical mechanisms of interest in the formation of spectra include photoionization. collisional ionization, recombination (radiative and dielectronic). collisional excitation (by electrons and protons). and radiative deexcitation. Unique to X-ray spectroscopy are the ionization and excitation processes from inner-closed shells. in addition to the challenges in interpret,ing the medium resolution (epsilon/delta epsilon is about 0.05 - 0.1) data obtained by current X-ray astronomy experiments. Line wavelengths are of interest too, particularly owing to the high resolution spectra from the new experiments. The workshop was divided into five major areas: Observational Spectroscopy, Theoretical Calculations of Atomic Data, Laboratory Measurements of Atomic Parameters. Spectra Modeling, and Atomic Databases. One comforting finding from the work shop is that the enthusiasm felt by X-ray astronomers about the new observational missions seems to be shared by theoretical and experimental physicists. Talks were presented about several exciting new projects and experimental and theoretical techniques devoted to X-ray spectroscopy. Simultaneously, several new tools for spectral analysis and modeling have recently been developed, together with improved atomic databases. These proceeding are expected to be of interests to producers and users of atomic data. Moreover. the contributions presented here have been written in a way that can be used by a general audience of scientists and graduate students in X-ray astronomy, modelling, and in computational and experimental atomic physics.

Kallman, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2020

Very High Resolution, Altitude-Corrected, TMPA-Based Monthly Satellite Precipitation Product Over the CONUS

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product provided over 17 years of gridded precipitation datasets. However, the accuracy and spatial resolution of TMPA limits the applicability in hydrometeorological applications. We present a dataset that enhances the accuracy and spatial resolution of the TMPA monthly product (3B43). We resample the TMPA data to a 1 km grid and apply a correction function derived from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) to reduce bias in the data. We confirm a linear relationship between bias and elevation above 1,500 meters where TMPA underestimates measured precipitation, providing a proof-of-concept of how simple linear scaling can be used to augment existing satellite datasets. The result of the correction is the High-Resolution Altitude-Corrected Precipitation product (HRAC-Precip) for the CONUS. Using 9,200 precipitation stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), we compare the accuracy of TMPA 3B43 versus the new HRAC-Precip product. The results show an improvement of the mean absolute error of 12.98% on average.

Hossein Hashemi↗
NASA NTRS1977

Submillisecond measurements of the low state of Cygnus X-1

Cygnus X-1 was observed on two occasions separated by a year by the same Goddard X-ray rocket payload. High-resolution temporal and spectral data reveal that Cyg X-1 was essentially unchanged in these two observations a year apart; the bursts of millisecond duration observed in the earlier flight were observed in the second as well. Analysis of these bursts has failed to reveal any internal temporal structure, either luminous or spectral. The shot-noise character of temporal fluctuations on time scales of at least 1 s can be explained by the presence of exponential pulses with a time constant of a fraction of a second and a rate near 8 per sec. The possible connection of these pulses with the bursts is examined.

Rothschild, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Plasma wave experiment for the ISEE-3 mission

Sensitive, high resolution plasma probes for analysis of the distribution functions and plasma wave instruments for measurements of electromagnetic and electrostatic wave modes are commonly flown together to provide information on plasma instabilities and wave particle interactions. Analysis of the data for the ISEE 3 mission is provided.

Scarf, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Laboratory studies in ultraviolet solar physics

The research activity comprised the measurement of basic atomic processes and parameters which relate directly to the interpretation of solar ultraviolet observations and to the development of comprehensive models of the component structures of the solar atmosphere. The research was specifically directed towards providing the relevant atomic data needed to perform and to improve solar diagnostic techniques which probe active and quiet portions of the solar chromosphere, the transition zone, the inner corona, and the solar wind acceleration regions of the extended corona. The accuracy with which the physical conditions in these structures can be determined depends directly on the accuracy and completeness of the atomic and molecular data. These laboratory data are used to support the analysis programs of past and current solar observations (e.g., the Orbiting solar Observatories, the Solar Maximum Mission, the Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount, and the Naval Research Laboratory's rocket-borne High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph). In addition, we attempted to anticipate the needs of future space-borne solar studies such as from the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. Our laboratory activities stressed two categories of study: (1) the measurement of absolute rate coefficients for dielectronic recombination and electron impact excitation; and (2) the measurement of atomic transition probabilities for solar density diagnostics. A brief summary of the research activity is provided.

Parkinson, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗