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At least 577 records · Page 32

MTUQ: a framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

SUMMARY We introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1-D and 3-D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface, accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: (1) a 2009 intraslab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; (2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and (3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multimodal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adaptive Online Model Update Algorithm for Predictive Control in Networked Systems

In this article, we introduce an adaptive on-line model update algorithm designed for predictive control applications in networked systems, particularly focusing on power distribution systems. Unlike traditional methods that depend on historical data for offline model identification, our approach utilizes real-time data for continuous model updates. This method integrates seamlessly with existing online control and optimization algorithms and provides timely updates in response to real-time changes. This methodology offers significant advantages, including a reduction in the communication network bandwidth requirements by minimizing the data exchanged at each iteration and enabling the model to adapt after disturbances. Furthermore, our algorithm is tailored for non-linear convex models, enhancing its applicability to practical scenarios. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated through a numerical study, demonstrating improved control performance using a synthetic IEEE test case.

data-driven model predictive control↗

Mitigating Voltage Instability in the Saudi Grid for a Decarbonized, Fully Solar Power System

Lately, solar photovoltaic (PV) has received significant interest due to its economic and environmental benefits. As the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) increases into existing power grids, challenges such as the decrease in short circuit ratio (SCR) are introduced. Here, this paper investigates a case study of the Saudi power grid, examining the voltage stability as the grid transitions from traditional power generation to 100% penetration of solar PV gradually. Moreover, the paper explores the relationship between the increase in solar penetration and the potential effects on the short circuit MVA (SCMVA), which could significantly impact the overall SCR of the system. To meet the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recommendation of maintaining SCR at a particular level, synchronous condensers (SC)s were integrated into the grid. The effectiveness of utilizing SCs to maintain the system voltage at optimal levels in a fully solar grid is also considered. In addition, this paper covers the weak grid analysis via utilizing the Newton-Raphson load flow method, along with PV and QV curve analyses. The purpose behind that is to determine weak bus locations in need of voltage improvements, and to meet the amount of reactive power to be injected. Finally, the amount of power being delivered by SCs will be added progressively in three scenarios to show the enhancements on SCR more precisely.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Scientific Impact of the Exascale Computing Project

The recent arrival of the Frontier Supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory officially marked the dawn of the exascale computing era. Its successful deployment coincided with the culmination of the U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project (ECP), an ambitious, complex, and risky research and development effort that integrated contributions from a broad and diverse subset of the high-performance computing community. The success of ECP will ultimately be judged by the scientific and engineering advances that it enabled. In conclusion, this Special Issue is focused on showcasing early successes in the use of exascale resources to enable breakthroughs in key areas of science in engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multivariate Predictive Analytics of Wind Power Data for Robust Control of Energy Storage

Short-term forecasting is frequently identified as an important tool for the effective management of wind generation. However, forecasting errors, inherent to the point forecasts, increase requirements for energy storage and can affect optimal system operation. Probabilistic forecasts can help tackle this issue by providing a proper characterization of forecasting errors in the optimization process. This paper proposes a multivariate model of forecasting data for wind generation. Predictive uncertainty intervals of wind power can be obtained by sampling from the proposed model. The main goal is to use empirical data models without linear or Gaussian approximations of the distributional or temporal variations. The predictive modeling is utilized within a case study of an energy storage system. Finally, a modified robust convex programming is used to maintain the practical robustness and feasibility of the solution based on the sampled scenarios from the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sequential Service Restoration for Unbalanced Distribution Systems and Microgrids

The resilience and reliability of modern power systems are threatened by increasingly severe weather events and cyber-physical security events. An effective restoration methodology is desired to optimally integrate emerging smart grid technologies and pave the way for developing self-healing smart grids. In this paper, a sequential service restoration (SSR) framework is proposed to generate restoration solutions for distribution systems and microgrids in the event of large-scale power outages. The restoration solution contains a sequence of control actions that properly coordinate switches, distributed generators, and switchable loads to form multiple isolated microgrids. The SSR can be applied for three-phase unbalanced distribution systems and microgrids and can adapt to various operation conditions. Mathematical models are introduced for three-phase unbalanced power flow, voltage regulators, transformers, and loads. Furthermore, the SSR problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model, and its effectiveness is evaluated via the modified IEEE 123 node test feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

VOLTTRON/econ-dispatch

Work space for in development Economic Dispatch Application. Multi-purpose open-source control algorithms that will ensure real-time optimal operation, increase electric grid reliability, and lead to the goal of clean, efficient, reliable and affordable next generation building-integrated combine cooling, heating and power (CHP) system.The CHP system could include conventional heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems, distributed generation (DG), local storage (both thermal and electric) and local solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.

Katipamula, Srinivas↗

Comparison of nested geometry treatments within GPU-based Monte Carlo neutron transport simulations of fission reactors

Monte Carlo (MC) neutron transport provides detailed estimates of radiological quantities within fission reactors. This involves tracking individual neutrons through a computational geometry. CPU-based MC codes use multiple polymorphic tracker types with different tracking algorithms to exploit the repeated configurations of reactors, but virtual function calls have high overhead on the GPU. The Shift MC code was modified to support GPU-based tracking with three strategies: dynamic polymorphism with virtual functions, static polymorphism, and a single tracker type with tree-based acceleration. On the Frontier supercomputer these methods achieve 77.8%, 91.2%, and 83.4%, respectively, of the tracking rate obtained using a specialized tracker optimized for rectilinear-grid-based reactors. This indicates that all three methods are suitable for typical reactor problems in which tracking does not dominate runtime. The flexibility of the single tracker method is highlighted with a hexagonal-grid microreactor problem, performed without hexagonal-grid-specific tracking routines, providing a 2.19× speedup over CPU execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Topological vulnerability of power grids to disasters: Bounds, adversarial attacks and reinforcement

Natural disasters like hurricanes, floods or earthquakes can damage power grid devices and create cascading blackouts and islands. The nature of failure propagation and extent of damage, among other factors, is dependent on the structural features of the grid, that are distinct from that of random networks. This paper analyzes the structural vulnerability of real power grids to impending disasters and presents intuitive graphical metrics to quantify the extent of topological damage. We develop two improved graph eigen-value based bounds on the grid vulnerability. Further we study adversarial attacks aimed at weakening the grid’s structural robustness and present three combinatorial algorithms to determine the optimal topological attack. Simulations on power grid networks and comparison with existing work show the improvements of the proposed measures and attack schemes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cummins Electric Truck with Range-Extending Engine (ETREE) Project (Final Technical Report)

The Cummins Electric Truck with Range Extending Engine (ETREE) program designed, developed, and demonstrated a range extending electric vehicle that employs an electrified propulsion system installed in a class 6 commercial vehicle (Peterbilt 220). This project was relevant to industry and the greater public because at the time of the project there were two keys to widespread electrified commercial vehicle adoption yet to be realize: 1) For pure electrified vehicle adoption, battery improvements are needed: Cost must decrease, and energy density must increase. 2) Electric vehicles must overcome fleet operator risks such as: operations in cold climates, hilly terrain, or where majority of conventional trucks are replaced with electrified vehicles. In the near to medium term these adoption hurdles were address by the objectives of this project. A plug-in hybrid vehicle that could be operated in all electric mode for most of its workday optimizing the use of grid energy with the ability to supplement energy demand with the onboard range extending engine. This project’s architecture provided ability to match a conventional class 6 commercial vehicle range and performance characteristics prior to the ubiquitous adoption of battery electric vehicle charging infrastructure as well. Additionally, the vehicles produced as part of this project can be considered a prototype for a commercially viable heavily electrified commercial vehicle because most of the physical hardware used for the project is commercially available in the market today. The ETREE program met its main objectives and demonstrated 65% fuel consumption reduction as compared to a conventional class 6 vehicle while meeting performance and range expectations. This was achieved by drawing upon the strengths of the assembled team: Cummins, PACCAR, the Ohio State University, Argonne National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Recovery Simulator and Analysis Formulation: Mathematical Framework for Enhanced Resilience and Resource Allocation

This report introduces recovery simulator and analysis (RSA), a framework aimed at enhancing the resilience of electrical grids post-disruption. The RSA model leverages an optimization problem formulation that focuses on maximizing the load served (or optionally customers served) through a coordinated and cooptimized recovery of non-black start generation, transmission lines, feeders and substations subject to labor budget constraints. By integrating advanced linear programming techniques, the simulator selects efficient reocovery pathways, optimizing both short-term and long-term grid recovery strategies. The mathematical framework guides decision-making through a comprehensive evaluation of potential recovery actions, factoring in the trade-offs between labor constraints and load (or optionally customer) restoration efficacy. This enables grid operators to simulate diverse outage scenarios and delineate optimal recovery pathways, thereby prioritizing critical repair tasks and ensuring resource allocation is both economical and effective. The intended use case of RSA is to allow planners to explore many recovery scenarios quickly and determine assets most critical across a wide range of scenarios, and therefore strong candidates for hardening or additional investment. RSA might also be used in an operational setting, following a single event, for exploring efficient recovery pathways.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

18-percent efficient terrestrial silicon solar cells

Silicon solar cells are described which operate at energy conversion efficiencies in excess of 18 percent under standard terrestrial test conditions (AM1.5, 100 mW/sq cm, 28 C). These are believed to be the most efficient silicon cells reported to date. The high efficiency is a result of the combination of high open-circuit voltage due to the careful attention paid to passivation of the top surface of the cell; high fill factors due to the high open-circuit voltage and low parasitic resistance losses; and high short-circuit current due to the use of shallow diffusions, a low grid coverage, and an optimized double-layer antireflection coating.

Blakers, A. W.↗

High-efficiency silicon solar cells

Silicon solar cells are described which operate at energy conversion efficiencies independently measured at 18.7 percent under standard terrestrial test conditions (AM1.5, 100 mW/sq cm, 28 C). These are apparently the most efficient silicon cells fabricated to date. The high-efficiency results from a combination of high open-circuit voltage due to the careful attention paid to the passivation of the top surface of the cell, high fill factor due to the high open-circuit voltage and low parasitic resistance losses, and high short-circuit current density due to the use of shallow diffusions, a low grid coverage, and an optimized double layer antireflection coating.

Green, M. A.↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Program at NASA Ames Research Center

The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Program at NASA Ames Research Center is reviewed and discussed. The technical elements of the CFD Program are listed and briefly discussed. These elements include algorithm research, research and pilot code development, scientific visualization, advanced surface representation, volume grid generation, and numerical optimization. Next, the discipline of CFD is briefly discussed and related to other areas of research at NASA Ames including experimental fluid dynamics, computer science research, computational chemistry, and numerical aerodynamic simulation. These areas combine with CFD to form a larger area of research, which might collectively be called computational technology. The ultimate goal of computational technology research at NASA Ames is to increase the physical understanding of the world in which we live, solve problems of national importance, and increase the technical capabilities of the aerospace community. Next, the major programs at NASA Ames that either use CFD technology or perform research in CFD are listed and discussed. Briefly, this list includes turbulent/transition physics and modeling, high-speed real gas flows, interdisciplinary research, turbomachinery demonstration computations, complete aircraft aerodynamics, rotorcraft applications, powered lift flows, high alpha flows, multiple body aerodynamics, and incompressible flow applications. Some of the individual problems actively being worked in each of these areas is listed to help define the breadth or extent of CFD involvement in each of these major programs. State-of-the-art examples of various CFD applications are presented to highlight most of these areas. The main emphasis of this portion of the presentation is on examples which will not otherwise be treated at this conference by the individual presentations. Finally, a list of principal current limitations and expected future directions is given.

Holst, Terry L.↗