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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Enhancements, Cross-Section Generation Updates, and Benchmarking with Shift

This technical report documents the modeling enhancements, cross-section generation updates, and bench marking with the Shift Monte Carlo code performed under the US Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program in FY 2024. The work performed included several modeling enhancements, such as integration of cross-section generation in Titan and the ability to produce microscopic multigroup cross sections with Shift. Benchmarking of the cross sections produced by Shift and the two-step workflow with Griffin was performed for three problems: the Advanced Breeder Test Reactor, a generic pebble bed reactor, and a TRISO heat pipe microreactor. Comparisons of results from these benchmark problems were done with Serpent, OpenMC, and Griffin. These enhancements provide a robust foundation for applying Shift for both reference and two-step neutronics analysis for advanced reactor simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than \building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) con firm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exempli fied through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wavelet and Deep-Learning-Based Approach for Generation System Problematic Parameters Identification and Calibration

Accurate models of generation systems are critical for maintaining reliable and secure grid operations. In this paper, a novel and systematic approach is proposed to identify and calibrate the generation system problematic parameters using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and advanced deep-learning technology. The phasor measurement unit (PMU) data are used through “event playback” to check whether the parameter calibration is required, and if yes, a group of suspicious parameters will be identified as the primary problematic parameter candidates (PPCs). These primary PPCs are randomly perturbed to generate the event playback simulation data, which are used by the CWT and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to further narrow down the primary PPCs into a smaller set of candidates. Then, the identified candidates are perturbed again to generate massive event playback simulation data for training a parameter calibration neural network. Here, we designed a multi-output neural network structure to find the mappings between the perturbed parameters and the simulation data using both CNN and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. Finally, the well-trained and tested CNN-LSTM model is used to estimate the accurate value of the suspicious parameters with actual PMU measurements. The proposed CNN-LSTM network can accurately and reliably estimate the generation-system problematic parameters, and has better performance when compared to other machine-learning methods, such as the multilayer perceptron network and the conditional variational autoencoder method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach have been validated through simulation and real-world data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MetaPoL: Immersive VR based Indoor Patterns of Life (PoL) and Anomalies Data Generation for Insider Threat Modeling in Nuclear Security

Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear and radiological security systems face. Insiders pose such a great threat due to their access, authority, and knowledge, granting them opportunities to bypass dedicated nuclear and radiological security elements. For example, in one of the latest major insider threat incidents to nuclear security, the Doel-4 nuclear powerplant in Belgium suffered a shutdown, the threat of nuclear materials diversion, and long-term loss of tens of millions of dollars. Seven years of investigation concluded that it was an inside job and attempted sabotage. In this regard, there is an immediate need for R&D and technology integration in the domain of modeling indoor Patterns-of-Life (PoL) and anomaly detection. This can be achieved by using datasets of facility users’ mobility and activity, which can support the design of algorithms for insider threat modeling and detection. However, due to classification, privacy, sensitivity, and safety protocols, such datasets from real physical nuclear reactor facilities are not only hard to share, but also not always feasible to deploy and collect. Aiming to find an alternate solution, our proposed demonstration work - MetaPoL, is the first-ever (for the application space) immersive VR (virtual reality) environment of a real-world secure facility and allows users to move-and-stay through the designed indoor physical layout and also encounter NPCs (non-player characters) that emulate other facility users. In the MetaPoL an interactive user performs realistic spatio-temporal movement, dwelling and activities using a Meta Quest Pro VR headset, and that generates high-frequency (in time) high-resolution (in space) indoor spatial-temporal datasets that are valuable for PoL modeling and anomaly detection research specifically for insider threat modeling and detection mission. Such generated realistic, rich in context, and mission specific datasets can boost AI/Machine Learning based research for modeling and detecting insider threats in nuclear security and nonproliferation.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of URANS and STRUCT-ε turbulence models for stratified sodium flow

Simulations of a transient stratified sodium experiment are carried out using a classic unsteady RANS model and the second-generation URANS model, STRUCT-ε. Turbulence modeling challenges and their implications to stratified flow prediction are discussed in the context of other sources of error. Input errors are discussed and addressed; discretization error is calculated to be less than 5% of the inlet velocity, for 80% of the domain; and remaining errors in temperature distributions are attributed to the turbulence model. Qualitative flow features from the simulations are presented and discussed. Compared to the experiment, the STRUCT-ε turbulence model provides a more physically accurate prediction of temperature and momentum mixing in key regions of the domain. Quantitative measures such as the L 2 norm of the temperature discrepancy demonstrate the improved performance of the STRUCT-ε approach. In conclusion, the magnitude of the temperature fluctuations is very well-predicted by the STRUCT-ε, while URANS overpredicts them by approximately 50%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prototype-Wise Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Building Energy Simulation Surrogate Modeling Accuracy

Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) is an important reference for urban energy-related policymaking. Because of the significant impact of urban microclimates on the energy simulation, UBEM requires simulations of many microclimate-prototype pairs. Surrogate modeling is commonly used to reduce the cost of simulation computations. In UBEM surrogate modeling, it is important to determine the percentage of microclimates related to a prototype used for generating surrogate model training data. This study analyzes the prototype-wise variations and sensitivities of surrogate model estimation accuracy to the microclimate sampling ratios. The results of the study can help determine the number of simulations used for generating surrogate modeling data, avoid redundant simulations, and reduce the computational cost for UBEM surrogate modeling and its time.

Pan, Xiyu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Battery Degradation Modeling in Hybrid Power Plants: An Island System Unit Commitment Study: Preprint

As hybrid power plants (HPPs), such as photovoltaic (PV) and battery combinations, become increasingly important in power systems with high renewable energy penetration to address PV variability and ensure grid stability. This paper focuses on the urgent need to model the coordination between PV and battery systems in HPPs while accounting for battery degradation. We present a generation scheduling model that explicitly incorporates PV-battery hybridization in the unit commitment problem. Moreover, the cost function of the HPP scheduling problem endogenously considers battery degradation with adjustable weights to strike a balance between minimizing production costs and prolonging battery life, particularly when providing energy arbitrage and ancillary services. Using a realistic island system simulation, we demonstrate that accounting for battery degradation in the scheduling problem can significantly extend battery life with only minor additional production costs.

battery degradation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Abstract. Solar geoengineering has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a potential temporary solution to offset global warming. One method of approximating global-scale solar geoengineering in climate models is via solar reduction experiments. Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO2 concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is idealized and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here, we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles. Of the variables analyzed here, the only major differences involve highly parameterized and uncertain processes, such as cloud forcing or terrestrial net primary productivity. We conclude that despite numerous structural differences and uncertainties in models over the past two generations of models, including an increase in climate sensitivity in the latest generation of models, the models are consistent in their aggregate climate response to global solar dimming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low responsiveness of machine learning models to critical or deteriorating health conditions

Machine learning (ML) based mortality prediction models can be immensely useful in intensive care units. Such a model should generate warnings to alert physicians when a patient’s condition rapidly deteriorates, or their vitals are in highly abnormal ranges. Before clinical deployment, it is important to comprehensively assess a model’s ability to recognize critical patient conditions. We develop multiple medical ML testing approaches, including a gradient ascent method and neural activation map. We systematically assess these machine learning models’ ability to respond to serious medical conditions using additional test cases, some of which are time series. Guided by medical doctors, our evaluation involves multiple machine learning models, resampling techniques, and four datasets for two clinical prediction tasks. We identify serious deficiencies in the models’ responsiveness, with the models being unable to recognize severely impaired medical conditions or rapidly deteriorating health. For in-hospital mortality prediction, the models tested using our synthesized cases fail to recognize 66% of the injuries. In some instances, the models fail to generate adequate mortality risk scores for all test cases. Our study identifies similar kinds of deficiencies in the responsiveness of 5-year breast and lung cancer prediction models. Using generated test cases, we find that statistical machine-learning models trained solely from patient data are grossly insufficient and have many dangerous blind spots. Most of the ML models tested fail to respond adequately to critically ill patients. How to incorporate medical knowledge into clinical machine learning models is an important future research direction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Approaches to Generate Knowledge from Data in a Plant Reliability Context

One challenge that nuclear power plant system engineers are facing is that the amount of equipment reliability (ER) data being continuously generated are extremely large. These data elements come in different forms: textual (e.g., condition reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems) and they provide system engineers with valuable insights and information regarding the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors and trends, and the prediction of their direct consequences. This paper directly targets the generation of knowledge from ER data by putting “data into context”. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional (i.e., cause-effect) relations. ER data elements are processed by identifying first which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. This task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process “knowledge extraction” where our methods to extract knowledge from textual data. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, we discover possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if there is a temporal relation among them. The logic and temporal are the two main ingredients to perform “machine reasoning” from ER data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Particle-in-cell modeling of electron beam generated plasma

Plasmas generated using energetic electron beams are well known for their low electron temperature (T e ) and plasma potential, which makes them attractive for atomic-precision plasma processing applications such as atomic layer etch and deposition. A 2-dimensional particle-in-cell model for an electron beam-generated plasma in argon confined by a constant applied magnetic field is described here in this article. Plasma production primarily occurs in the path of the beam electrons in the center of the chamber. The resulting plasma spreads out in the chamber through non-ambipolar diffusion with a short-circuiting effect allowing unequal electron and ion fluxes to different regions of the bounding conductive chamber walls. The cross-field transport of the electrons (and thus the steady-state characteristics of the plasma) are strongly impacted by the magnetic field. T e is anisotropic in the electron beam region, but low and isotropic away from the plasma production zone. The plasma density increases and the plasma becomes more confined near the region of production when the magnetic field strengthens. The magnetic field reduces both electron physical and energy transport perpendicular to the magnetic field. T e is uniform along the magnetic field lines and slowly decreases perpendicular to it. Electrons are less energetic in the sheath regions where the sheath electric field repels and confines the low-energy electrons from the bulk plasma. Even though electron and ion densities are similar in the bulk plasma due to quasi-neutrality, electron and ion fluxes on the grounded chamber walls are unequal at most locations. Electron confinement by the magnetic field weakens with increasing pressure, and the plasma spread out farther from the electron beam region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal Kinetics Reduction for Astrophysical Reaction Networks

A novel methodology is developed to extract accurate skeletal reaction models for nuclear combustion. Local sensitivities of isotope mass fractions with respect to reaction rates are modeled based on the forced optimally time-dependent (f-OTD) scheme. These sensitivities are then analyzed temporally to generate skeletal models. The methodology is demonstrated by conducting skeletal reduction of constant density and temperature burning of carbon and oxygen relevant to Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The 495-isotopes Torch model is chosen as the detailed reaction network. A map of maximum production of 56 Ni in SNe Ia is produced for different temperatures, densities, and proton-to-neutron ratios. The f-OTD simulations and the sensitivity analyses are then performed with initial conditions from this map. A series of skeletal models are derived and their performances are assessed by comparison against currently existing skeletal models. Previous models have been constructed intuitively by assuming the dominance of α-chain reactions. The comparison of the newly generated skeletal models against previous models is based on the predicted energy release and 44 Ti and 56 Ni abundances by each model. The consequences of ye ≠ 0.5 in the initial composition are also explored where ye is the electron fraction. The simulated results show that 56 Ni production decreases by decreasing ye as expected, and that the 43 Sc is a key isotope in proton and neutron channels toward 56 Ni production. It is shown that an f-OTD skeletal model with 150 isotopes can accurately predict the 56Ni abundance in SNe Ia for ye ≲ 0.5 initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗