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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Blinding scheme for the scale-dependence bias signature of local primordial non-Gaussianity for DESI 2024

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys is expected to achieve an unprecedented level of accuracy in the measurement of cosmological parameters. To avoid confirmation bias and thereby improve the reliability of these results, blinding procedures become a standard practice in the cosmological analyses of such surveys. Blinding is especially crucial when the impact of observational systematics is important relative to the cosmological signal, and a detection of that signal would have significant implications. This is the case for local primordial non-gaussianity, as probed by the scale-dependent bias of the galaxy power spectrum at large scales that are heavily sensitive to the dependence of the target selection on the imaging quality, known as imaging systematics. We propose a blinding method for the scale-dependent bias signature of local primordial non-gaussianity at the density field level which consists in generating a set of weights for the data that replicate the scale-dependent bias. The applied blinding is predictable, and can be straightforwardly combined with other catalog-level blinding procedures that have been designed for the baryon acoustic oscillation and redshift space distortion signals. The procedure is validated through simulations that replicate data from the first year of observation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, but may find applications to other upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved $^{95}\mathrm{Mo}$ neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates

We report improved 95 Mo neutron resonance parameters and reaction rates are important for nuclear astrophysics, testing nuclear models, and nuclear criticality safety. However, despite many previous neutron-capture and total cross-section measurements on this nuclide, there still is much room for improvement as well as several discrepancies. For example, there are very few firm resonance spin and parity assignments; average resonance parameters are available only for each parity, the currently recommended astrophysical reaction rate results in disagreements between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies, and there are substantial disagreements in the neutron-capture cross section at low energies important for nuclear criticality safety. To obtain an improved set of neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates for 95 Mo. High-resolution neutron-capture and transmission data were measured at the Oak Ridge Electron Linear Accelerator (ORELA) using highly isotopically enriched 95 Mo samples. The neutron-capture apparatus, data reduction, and analysis were improved so that information contained in the γ-ray cascade following neutron capture were used to assign resonance J π values. Following this, simultaneous analysis of the new neutron-capture and transmission data was used to obtain resonance energies, gamma widths, and neutron widths and their uncertainties to a maximum energy of 10 keV. Accurate neutron-capture cross sections also were obtained for the unresolved resonance region to a maximum energy of 500 keV and, together with the new resonance parameters, used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates in the temperature range from 5 to 30 keV. A vastly improved set of 95Mo neutron resonance parameters and an astrophysical reaction rate accurate to about 3% were obtained. Firm J π assignments were determined for 261 of the 314 observed resonances. This is a very large improvement over the previously published 32 firm J π assignments for 108 resonances. Also, the number of resonances having both firm J π assignments and Γ γ values was increased by almost a factor of 24—from 11 to 261. Neutron- and total-radiation-width distributions and average resonance spacings, average total radiation widths, and neutron strength functions were obtained for the six different s- and p-wave possibilities. Parameters for the lowest s-wave resonance, which is most important for criticality benchmarks, were obtained with high accuracy. Simple modification of the neutron-capture apparatus and expansion and improvement of data analysis techniques led to a large increase in firm J π assignments for 95 Mo neutron resonances. The resulting astrophysical reaction rate is 20%–30% larger than the currently recommended rate at s-process temperatures, which should lead to better agreement between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies. The neutron-capture cross section at low energies is substantially larger than recommended in the latest evaluation, which is problematical for criticality benchmarks. The average resonance spacing as a function of spin and parity is significantly different from current models. The total-radiation-width distributions are significantly broader than predicted by theory and show significant departures from the expected Gaussian shapes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Target-Beam-Moderator Optimization for the Second Target Station

This report describes the results for a coupled target-beam-moderator optimization analysis for the Second Target Station (STS) at ORNL's Spallation Neutron Source. This study is a continuation of the optimization analysis for the moderators in the preliminary design of STS performed in 2022. In the 2022 analysis the dimensions of the moderators are parameterized, while the target and the proton beam profile are kept constant. In this analysis the target height and the proton beam profile are added as parameters. This allows to study the coupled effects of changing target, moderator and beam dimensions. Similar to the 2022 analysis, this work is performed with an automated optimization workflow that uses the optimization toolbox DAKOTA, parameterized geometries in CREO and SpaceClaim, the unstructured mesh generation in Attila4MC, and the particle transport code MCNP6.2©. This workflow enables an efficient optimization using high-fidelity geometries. The main conclusions of this analysis are the following: • Coupled beam-target-moderator optimization provides a few additional percent performance gain over stand-alone moderator optimization. • The moderator performance is not very sensitive to the target height (between ≈60 and ≈80 mm) as long as the beam profile is chosen adequately. • The moderator performance is sensitive to the choice of beam spatial standard deviations, even when the footprint is kept constant. • The optimal moderator radius is the same for a beam footprint of 30 cm 2 , 62.5 cm 2 , and 90 cm 2 . Also the slope of the super-gaussian beam profile does not significantly impact the optimal moderator radius. • The optimal parameters and sensitivities are very similar to the 2022 optimization analysis. These results only indicate a a difference in the optimal radius of the cylindrical moderator, however, this has been corrected in the final design moderator optimization. The main purpose of this report is to document the simulations, results and lessons learned. The most impactful results are summarized in. We also note that the target geometry used in this work is not the final design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Viscoelastic relaxation and topological fluctuations in glass-forming liquids

In this study, a method for characterizing the topological fluctuations in liquids is proposed. This approach exploits the concept of the weighted gyration tensor of a collection of particles and permits the definition of a local configurational unit (LCU). The first principal axis of the gyration tensor serves as the director of the LCU, which can be tracked and analyzed by molecular dynamics simulations. Analysis of moderately supercooled Kob–Andersen mixtures suggests that orientational relaxation of the LCU closely follows viscoelastic relaxation and exhibits a two-stage behavior. The slow relaxing component of the LCU corresponds to the structural, Maxwellian mechanical relaxation. Additionally, it is found that the mean curvature of the LCUs is approximately zero at the Maxwell relaxation time with the Gaussian curvature being negative. This observation implies that structural relaxation occurs when the configurationally stable and destabilized regions interpenetrate each other in a bicontinuous manner. Finally, the mean and Gaussian curvatures of the LCUs can serve as reduced variables for the shear stress correlation, providing a compelling proof of the close connection between viscoelastic relaxation and topological fluctuations in glass-forming liquids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Constraints on the Epoch of Reionization Using the Non-Gaussianity of the Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich Effect from the South Pole Telescope and Herschel-SPIRE Observations

We report results from an analysis aimed at detecting the trispectrum of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect by combining data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Herschel-SPIRE experiments over a 100 deg 2 field. The SPT observations combine data from the previous and current surveys, namely SPTpol and SPT-3G, to achieve depths of 4.5, 3, and 16 μ K - arcmin in bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. For SPIRE, we include data from the 600 and 857 GHz bands. We reconstruct the velocity-induced large-scale correlation of the small-scale kSZ signal with a quadratic estimator that uses two cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps, constructed by optimally combining data from all the frequency bands. We reject the null hypothesis of a zero trispectrum at 10.3 σ level. However, the measured trispectrum contains contributions from both the kSZ and other undesired components, such as CMB lensing and astrophysical foregrounds, with kSZ being sub-dominant. We use the agora simulations to estimate the expected signal from CMB lensing and astrophysical foregrounds. After accounting for the contributions from CMB lensing and foreground signals, we do not detect an excess kSZ-only trispectrum and use this nondetection to set constraints on reionization. By applying a prior based on observations of the Gunn-Peterson trough, we obtain an upper limit on the duration of reionization of Δ z re , 50 < 4.5 (95% confidence level). We find these constraints are fairly robust to foregrounds assumptions. This trispectrum measurement is independent of, but consistent with, Planck’s optical depth measurement. This result is the first constraint on the epoch of reionization using the non-Gaussian nature of the kSZ signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A reactive electrochemomechanical theory for growth and remodeling of polyelectrolyte hydrogels and application to dynamic polymerization of $\text{DNA}$ hydrogels

Here this study develops a framework for growth and remodeling of active polyelectrolyte hydrogels that accounts for effects of compositional changes on the mechanical response. By developing a reactive electrochemomechanical theory, thermodynamical constraints upon reactive and remodeling processes are elucidated within a general framework that allows any number of chemical reactions to evolve the response of the gel and transfer mass and charge between constituents. Fully coupled, nonlinear constitutive relations are adopted for molar fluxes, allowing exploration of effects including cross-diffusion, electrophoresis, and electro-osmosis. A robust finite element implementation is developed in the open source FEBio software (febio.org) by exploiting an equivalence between electrochemomechanics and mixture theory. The implementation is verified against analytical solutions for free swelling, and a proper reduction to a prior chemomechanical theory is demonstrated for neutral gels swollen only by a solvent with no solutes. The theory and implementation are then applied to model the tunable large swelling achieved through dynamic polymerization of DNA crosslinkers seen in our recently developed experimental hydrogel system (Cangialosi et al., 2017). A novel constitutive model for reaction-driven evolution of the locking stretch λ L in a non-Gaussian mechanical free energy was developed, where the increasing concentration of DNA crosslinkers makes further swelling energetically favorable. With a single free parameter, excellent agreement was found between measured and predicted equilibrium swelling ratios. This study demonstrated the ability to extend the electrochemomechanical framework to include chemical reactions and composition-aware constitutive models, and showed that development of reactive models allows simulation of complex dynamic polymerization phenomena not treated before. The theoretical frame here can be further expanded in scope to incorporate additional non-ideal and nonlinear phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

2D-FFTLog: efficient computation of real-space covariance matrices for galaxy clustering and weak lensing

ABSTRACT Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate, and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real-space covariances for both 3D and projected statistics. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real-space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a Dark Energy Survey Year 3-like and a Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances with the flat sky approximation, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters. The code CosmoCov for computing the real-space covariances with or without the flat-sky approximation is released along with this paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Report on Development of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer for Fluid Flow Sensing: Development of Microwave Cavity Flow Meter for Advanced Reactor High Temperature Fluids

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with one of the flat walls of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the microwave resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have developed a continuum electromechanics model of the microwave resonant cavity transducer performance. The deflection of the membrane is calculated using equations from the theory of plates and shells for deflection of radially constrained thin circular disk under uniform load. The microwave frequency shift is calculated using the equations from the microwave cavity perturbation theory. The transducer model was validated with proof-of-concept experimental data of water flow sensing with a Brass 360 right circular cylinder with 22.2mm diameter and 203µm thick wall. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole in TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. Subsequently, we have performed a preliminary proof-of-principle test of flow sensing in high temperature liquid sodium in environment. For this test, we have developed a cylindrical resonator with the same dimensions as for the Brass 360 cavity. The resonator for high temperature liquid sodium test was machined from stainless steel 316 and electroplated with silver on the interior surfaces. We have also developed and insertion probe consisting of a 50cm WR-42 brass waveguide enclosed in a protective SS316 tube. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole on the side of the wall of the cylinder in the TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. The liquid sodium setup consists of a cylindrical vessel with a center feed line, where a transducer inserted through the top cap of the vessel measures velocity of the impinging liquid jet. The sodium flow sensing study was performed in a liquid sodium vessel at 340°C temperature and ambient pressure. The flow rate was changed by varying sodium pump power, and a frequency shift of several hundred kHz was observed. The transducer was removed after 70 days of testing. No visual damage was observed, and the electromagnetic response remained the same. As a calibration experiment, we have assembled a water vessel with a center feed, and with dimensions similar to those of the liquid sodium setup. Water flow sensing was performed before and after liquid sodium test. The responses in both cases are similar and agree with COMSOL computer simulations. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Self-learning Neural Network Approach for Radio Frequency Interference Detection and Removal in Radio Astronomy

In this work, we present a novel neural network (NN) method for the detection and removal of radio frequency interference (RFI) from the raw digitized signal in the signal processing chain of a typical radio astronomy experiment. The main advantage of our method is that it does not require a training set. Instead, our method relies on the fact that the true signal of interest coming from astronomical sources is thermal and therefore described as a Gaussian random process, which cannot be compressed. We employ a variational encoder/decoder network to find the compressible information in the data stream that can explain the most variance with the fewest degrees of freedom. We demonstrate it on a set of toy problems and stored ring buffers from the Baryon Mapping eXperiment prototype. We find that the RFI subtraction is effective at cleaning simulated time streams: While we find that the power spectra of the RFI-cleaned time streams output by the NN suffer from extra signal consistent with additive noise, we find that it is generally around percent level across the band and sub 10% in contaminated spectral channels even when RFI power is an order of magnitude larger than the signal. We discuss the advantages and limitations of this method and possible implementation in the front end of future radio experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Overloading Risk Mitigation With a Semi-Analytical Probabilistic Model on Branch Current

A semi-analytical formulation is presented in this paper for the probability computation of branch current in multiphase systems. The developed formula is derived based on the linear power flow model in rectangular coordinates. The system uncertainty injections can be renewable energy resources or loads and are modeled using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The developed formula can be used to compute the line current violation probability as well as integrate into optimal power flow problem as chance-constraint relaxation. Here, the proposed formula is first compared with the Matlab embedded numerical integration function to show its performance. Besides, the semi-analytical formula is validated and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method using the IEEE 123-bus system, EPRI Ckt5, and Ckt7 systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Logarithmic Bayesian Approach to Quantum Error Detection

We consider the problem of continuous quantum error correction from a Bayesian perspective, proposing a pair of digital filters using logarithmic probabilities that are able to achieve near-optimal performance on a three-qubit bit-flip code, while still being reasonable to implement on low-latency hardware. These practical filters are approximations of an optimal filter that we derive explicitly for finite time steps, in contrast with previous work that has relied on stochastic differential equations such as the Wonham filter. By utilizing logarithmic probabilities, we are able to eliminate the need for explicit normalization and can reduce the Gaussian noise distribution to a simple quadratic expression. The state transitions induced by the bit-flip errors are modeled using a Markov chain, which for log-probabilities must be evaluated using a LogSumExp function. We develop the two versions of our filter by constraining this LogSumExp to have either one or two inputs, which favors either simplicity or accuracy, respectively. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that the single-term and two-term filters are able to significantly outperform both a double threshold scheme and a linearized version of the Wonham filter in tests of error detection under a wide variety of error rates and time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic Simulations of Polydisperse Lignin Melts Using Simple Polydisperse Residue Input Generator

Understanding the physics of lignin will help rationalize its function in plant cell walls as well as aiding practical applications such as deriving biofuels and bioproducts. Here, in this work, we present SPRIG (Simple Polydisperse Residue Input Generator), a program for generating atomic-detail models of random polydisperse lignin copolymer melts i.e., the state most commonly found in nature. Using these models, we use all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the conformational and dynamic properties of polydisperse melts representative of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) lignin. Polydispersity, branching and monolignol sequence are found to not affect the calculated glass transition temperature, T g . The Flory–Huggins scaling parameter for the segmental radius of gyration is 0.42 ± 0.02, indicating that the chains exhibit statistics that lie between a globular chain and an ideal Gaussian chain. Below T g the atomic mean squared displacements are independent of molecular weight. In contrast, above T g , they decrease with increasing molecular weight. Therefore, a monodisperse lignin melt is a good approximation to this polydisperse lignin when only static properties are probed, whereas the molecular weight distribution needs to be considered while analyzing lignin dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local primordial non-Gaussianity from the large-scale clustering of photometric DESI luminous red galaxies

ABSTRACT We use angular clustering of luminous red galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging surveys to constrain the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter fNL. Our sample comprises over 12 million targets, covering 14 000 deg2 of the sky, with redshifts in the range 0.2 < z < 1.35. We identify Galactic extinction, survey depth, and astronomical seeing as the primary sources of systematic error, and employ linear regression and artificial neural networks to alleviate non-cosmological excess clustering on large scales. Our methods are tested against simulations with and without fNL and systematics, showing superior performance of the neural network treatment. The neural network with a set of nine imaging property maps passes our systematic null test criteria, and is chosen as the fiducial treatment. Assuming the universality relation, we find $f_{\rm NL} = 34^{+24(+50)}_{-44(-73)}$ at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence. We apply a series of robustness tests (e.g. cuts on imaging, declination, or scales used) that show consistency in the obtained constraints. We study how the regression method biases the measured angular power spectrum and degrades the fNL constraining power. The use of the nine maps more than doubles the uncertainty compared to using only the three primary maps in the regression. Our results thus motivate the development of more efficient methods that avoid overcorrection, protect large-scale clustering information, and preserve constraining power. Additionally, our results encourage further studies of fNL with DESI spectroscopic samples, where the inclusion of 3D clustering modes should help separate imaging systematics and lessen the degradation in the fNL uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spot size measurement of a deuterium–tritium dense plasma focus using neutron radiography

Neutron radiography is a technique uniquely suited to applications in nuclear diagnostics, non-destructive testing, and subcritical experiments. The spatial resolution of neutron radiographs is degraded by optical blur in the imaging system and the neutron source size, where the ideal source is point-like to optimize the point-spread function. A potential neutron source for radiography is the dense plasma focus (DPF), a coaxial Z-pinch that produces thermonuclear and beam-target neutrons. To assess if the source size is suitable for radiography, a neutron imaging system was used to measure the source size of the 4 MA Sodium DPF at the Nevada National Security Site operating with deuterium–tritium gas-fill. The source size was measured using the edge-spread function of tungsten objects, each having a rolled (convex) edge. The spot size was found to be 7–12 mm full-width at half-max (FWHM) assuming a Gaussian source, though comparison is presented for Lorentzian and Bennett distributions. The average FWHM was found to be 8.6 ± 1.2 mm vertically and 10.8 ± 1.2 mm horizontally with respect to the image plane, averaging over varied edges and alignments. The results were sensitive to source alignment and edge metrology, which introduced notable uncertainties. These results are consistent with separate experimental measurements as well as magnetohydrodynamics simulations of this DPF, which suggest that neutron production can originate from pinches ∼5–7 mm off-axis. These results suggest that the DPF should be used for radiography at low magnification (M < 1) where spot size does not dominate spatial blur.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗