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DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in varying conclusions. Simplified models may be able to help overcome this problem. Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) model simulations have been used in various configurations to study fundamental aspects of Earth's climate. While many RCE modeling studies have focused on TC genesis, intensification, and size, limited work has been done using RCE to study TC precipitation. Here, in this study, the response of TC precipitation to sea surface temperature (SST) change is analyzed in global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations run with Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project protocols, with the addition of planetary rotation. We expect that the insight gained about how TC precipitation responds to SST warming will help predict how TCs in the real world respond to climate change. In the CAM RCE simulations, the warmer SST simulations have less TCs on average, but the TCs tend to be larger in outer size and more intense. As simulation SST increases, more extreme precipitation rates occur within TCs, and more of the TC precipitation comes from these extreme rates. For extreme (99th percentile) TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity increases dominate the 8.6% per K increase, while TC outer size changes have little impact. For accumulated TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity contributions are still the majority, but TC outer size changes also contribute to the 6.6% per K increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

NASTRAN finite element idealization study

The investigation of the effects of variations of mesh refinement and mesh pattern were conducted using a basic rectangular mesh pattern. When employing the constant strain TRMEM element, the basic rectangular pattern was subdivided into triangles. This subdivision employs two different triangular patterns and allows results to be obtained which demonstrate the effect of modelling bias. Errors in tip deflection, direct stress, and shearing stress as a function of mesh size and element aspect ratio were obtained as well as mid-span stress distributions. All problems were solved on an IBM 360/95 computer using MacNeal-Schwendler Version MSC-38 Rigid Format-1 of the NASTRAN computer program. While NASTRAN uses double precision arithmetic for the solution of the global equations for displacements, subsequent computations to obtain element stresses are carried out in single precision. This suggests that some improvement in stress recovery might be expected when using the higher precision DCD machines.

Case, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Massively Parallel Particle Code for Rarefied Ionized and Neutral Gas Flows in Earth and Planetary Atmospheres, Ionospheres and Magnetospheres

Combi, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Massively Parallel Hybrid Dusty-Gasdynamics and Kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Model for Planetary Applications

In order to understand the global structure, dynamics, and physical and chemical processes occurring in the upper atmospheres, exospheres, and ionospheres of the Earth, the other planets, comets and planetary satellites and their interactions with their outer particles and fields environs, it is often necessary to address the fundamentally non-equilibrium aspects of the physical environment. These are regions where complex chemistry, energetics, and electromagnetic field influences are important. Traditional approaches are based largely on hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) formulations and are very important and highly useful. However, these methods often have limitations in rarefied physical regimes where the molecular collision rates and ion gyrofrequencies are small and where interactions with ionospheres and upper neutral atmospheres are important. At the University of Michigan we have an established base of experience and expertise in numerical simulations based on particle codes which address these physical regimes. The Principal Investigator, Dr. Michael Combi, has over 20 years of experience in the development of particle-kinetic and hybrid kinetichydrodynamics models and their direct use in data analysis. He has also worked in ground-based and space-based remote observational work and on spacecraft instrument teams. His research has involved studies of cometary atmospheres and ionospheres and their interaction with the solar wind, the neutral gas clouds escaping from Jupiter s moon Io, the interaction of the atmospheres/ionospheres of Io and Europa with Jupiter s corotating magnetosphere, as well as Earth s ionosphere. This report describes our progress during the year. The contained in section 2 of this report will serve as the basis of a paper describing the method and its application to the cometary coma that will be continued under a research and analysis grant that supports various applications of theoretical comet models to understanding the inner comae of comets (grant NAGS- 13239 from the Planetary Atmospheres program).

Combi, Michael R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Report on DOE-Supported Participation in the 18th International Congress on Photosynthesis Research (IPC 2022)

Photosynthesis is the primary natural process for conversion of solar energy to chemical energy. Solar energy is the only clean, renewable source of energy that has sufficient capacity to replace fossil fuels and meet rising global energy needs. Meeting this challenge means understanding photosynthetic energy conversion at a molecular level, a task requiring perspectives from all disciplines of science. The 18th International Congress on Photosynthesis (IPC) is facilitating just that by providing a forum for scientists from all corners of the world to come together to share ideas and build new collaborations that will improve the lives of future generations. A vibrant knowledge of each of the diverse aspects of basic and applied photosynthesis research obviously depends upon a healthy scientific exchange among the members of the research community. While senior scientists are more likely able to make the long trip to this important meeting, the travel costs for students and postdocs would otherwise prohibit participation for talented junior US scientists. At the same time, this is precisely the kind of meeting that strengthens interest and careers in the important scientific directions represented by this conference. For all scientists this is an opportunity to learn firsthand about the very latest advances in the field and to meet and brainstorm with collaborators as well as make new collaborations. For junior scientists, this funding is giving an opportunity to do these things plus it is often the first tangible experience regarding the global, international significance of their own projects. Overall, the diversity of topics and technical approaches is providing an extremely stimulating multidisciplinary environment for junior and senior scientists performing research in a variety of areas that are within the scope to the US DOE mission. In collaboration with the executive members of the North American Photosynthesis Conference Association (NAPCA and the International Society of Photosynthesis research (ISPR), a competitive selection of junior participants is being made based upon the quality of the abstracts and materials submitted by self-identified candidates that have applied following a broadcast call for applications from junior US scientists. Financial support is consisting of waivers for the registration cost of the meeting and partial living expenses at local dormitory facilities at the conference site.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Review of capture cross sections relevant for intentional nuclear forensics

The NA-22 Intentional Forensics Venture is developing a system for tagging nuclear fuel using various methods of information encoding. One of the main methods under development is the insertion of isotopically enriched tracers into the fuel. In order to aid in the understanding of the neutronic performance of these taggants, we assess the quality of the nuclear data underpinning simulations, which are driven by the neutron-capture cross sections. We present these cross sections of naturally occurring isotopes of the elements provided in the neutron sublibrary of the planned ENDF/B-VIII.1 Feb. 2023 library release. We make this assessment using a rubric designed for this effort, which quantifies orthogonal features related to the overall quality. The quality metric highlights 6 aspects: experimental data, resonance evaluations, integral metrics, covariances, fission products, and documentation. We focus on energy ranges relevant for reactor applications. We also discuss additional sources for new, high-quality cross-section data that may be utilized on the time scale of the venture, including existing global data, new experiments, and computational methods. Finally, overall outlook is presented with conclusions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

On the utilization of engineering knowledge in design optimization

Some current research work conducted at the University of Michigan is described to illustrate efforts for incorporating knowledge in optimization in a nontraditional way. The incorporation of available knowledge in a logic structure is examined in two circumstances. The first examines the possibility of introducing global design information in a local active set strategy implemented during the iterations of projection-type algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used combines global and local monotinicity analysis of the objective and constraint functions. The second examines a knowledge-based program which aids the user to create condigurations that are most desirable from the manufacturing assembly viewpoint. The data bank used is the classification scheme suggested by Boothroyd. The important aspect of this program is that it is an aid for synthesis intended for use in the design concept phase in a way similar to the so-called idea-triggers in creativity-enhancement techniques like brain-storming. The idea generation, however, is not random but it is driven by the goal of achieving the best acceptable configuration.

Papalambros, P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of polar ice using enhanced resolution microwave scatterometer data

Increasing interest in the role of ice sheets in regulating global climate has created a need for synoptic interannual recording and monitoring of the earth's major ice sheets. Based on their ability to 'see' into ice, microwave remote sensing instruments are well-suited for monitoring the polar regions. Although microwave radar has increased capabilities over some aspects of visible wavelength systems, there are tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can make high resolution images, but is limited in ground coverage over polar regions because of high data rates and a lack of receiving stations. Microwave scatterometers, originally designed for measuring winds over the ocean, are capable of greater ground coverage in polar regions, but are inherently low resolution instruments. However, a recently developed resolution enhancement technique can generate enhanced resolution scatterometer images. In this paper the algorithm is applied to create enhanced resolution images from Seasat and ERS-1 scatterometer data over. Time series of medium-scale radar images for Greenland and Antarctica and the surrounding seas are presented. The growth and shrinkage of the southern polar sea-ice throughout a full annual cycle is illustrated with the seasonal cycle of patterns on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets clearly evident. Using the time series and simple scattering models, the locations of key ice facies in Greenland are determined.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Satellite Detection of the Convection Generated Stresses in Earth

We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.

Liu, Han-Shou↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Optimal A-Train Data Utilization: A Use Case of Aura OMI L2G and MERRA-2 Aerosol Products

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Aura mission measures ozone column and profile, aerosols, clouds, surface UV irradiance, and the trace gases including NO2, SO2, HCHO, BrO, and OClO using UltraViolet electromagnetic spectrum (280 - 400 nm) with a daily global coverage and a pixel spatial resolution of 13 km × 24 km at nadir, and it's been one of the key instruments to study the Earth's atmospheric composition and chemistry. The second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) is NASA's atmospheric reanalysis using an upgraded version of Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Compared to its predecessor MERRA, MERRA-2 is enhanced with more aspects of the Earth system among which is aerosol assimilation. When comparing between satellite pixel measurements and modeled grid data, how to properly handle counterpart pairing is critical considering their spatial and temporal variations. The comparison between satellite and model data by simply using Level 3 (L3) products may result biases due to lack of detailed temporal information. It has been preferred to inter-compare or implement satellite derived physical quantity (i.e., Level 2 (L2) Swath type) directly with/to model measurements with higher temporal and spatial resolution as possible. However, this has posed a challenge in the community to handle. Rather than directly handling the L2 or L3 data, there is a Level 2G (L2G) product conserving L2 pixel scientific data quality but in Grid type with the global coverage. In this presentation, we would like to demonstrate the optimal utilization of OMI L2G daily aerosol products by comparing with MERRA-2 hourly aerosol simulations matched well in both space and time.

MERRA-2 reanalysis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Overset meshes for incompressible flows: On preserving accuracy of underlying discretizations

This study on overset meshes for incompressible-flow simulations is motivated by accurate prediction of wind farm aerodynamics involving large motions and deformations of components with complex geometry. Specifically, using first-order hyperbolic and elliptic equation proxies for the incompressible Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, we investigate the influence of information exchange between overset meshes on numerical performance where the underlying discretization is second-order accurate. The first aspect of information exchange surrounds interpolation of solution where we examine Lagrange and point-cloud-based interpolation for creating constraint equations between overset meshes. To maintain overall second-order accuracy, higher-order interpolation is required for elliptic problems, but linear interpolation is sufficient for hyperbolic problems in first-order form. Higher-order point-cloud-based interpolation provides a pathway to maintaining accuracy in unstructured meshes, but at higher complexity. The second aspect of information exchange focuses on comparing the approaches of overset single system (OSS) and overset Additive Schwarz (OAS) for coupling the linear systems of the overlapping meshes. While the former involves a single linear system, in the latter the discrete linear systems are solved separately, and solving the global system is accomplished through outer iterations and sequential information exchange in a Jacobi fashion. For the test cases studied, accuracy for hyperbolic problems is maintained by performing two outer iterations, whereas many outer iterations are required for elliptic systems. The order-of-accuracy studies explored here are critical for verifying the overset-mesh coupling algorithms used in engineering simulations. Accuracy of these simulations themselves is, however, quantified using engineering quantities of interest such as drag, power, etc. Consequently, we conclude with numerical experiments using NS equations for incompressible flows where we show that linear interpolation and few outer iterations are sufficient for achieving asymptotic convergence of engineering quantities of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea

Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. Here, we explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Eye-Tracking to Quantify Reverse Engineering Expertise

Software reverse engineering (RE) requires analysts to closely read and make decisions about code. Little is known about what makes an analyst successful, making it difficult to train new analysts or design tools to augment existing ones. The goal of this project was to quantify the eye movement behaviors supporting RE and code comprehension more generally. We applied eye-tracking methods from the language comprehension literature to understand where analysts direct their attention over time when completing tasks (e.g., function identification, bug detection). Across three studies, we manipulated aspects of code hypothesized to impact comprehension (e.g., variable name meaningfulness, code complexity) and presentation methods (e.g., line-by-line, free viewing, gaze-contingent moving window) to understand effects on accuracy and gaze patterns. Results showed clear benefits of meaningful variable names, and effects of expertise on global and line-specific viewing patterns. Findings could inspire empirically-supported tool or analytic adaptations that help to reduce analyst workload.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

International Conference on Environmental Sensing and Assessment, Las Vegas, Nev., September 14-19, 1975, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

The papers deal with the detection of hazardous environmental pollutants, the development of emission control plans, and the design of compliance monitoring systems. Topics include remote sensing techniques in environmental pollution monitoring, monitoring of atmospheric particulate matter, air pollution due to sulfur dioxide and other inorganic compounds, marine pollution, atmospheric aerosols, industrial pollution, and legal aspects of pollution monitoring. Other papers examine the toxic effects of heavy metals and halogenated hydrocarbons, pollution associated with waste-disposal processes, pesticide residues in soil and groundwater, evaluations of groundwater quality, and monitoring of nuclear wastes. The interaction of climate and pollution is also discussed along with global pollutant transport, environmental modeling, ambient environmental air quality, aircraft and ground-vehicle emissions, and pollution associated with energy extraction and utilization processes. Individual items are announced in this issue.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

Formal convergence characteristics of elliptically constrained incremental Newton-Raphson algorithms

Various aspects of the convergence, uniqueness, and existence properties associated with solutions generated via the elliptically constrained incremental Newton-Raphson (ECINR) algorithm are analyzed. Several theorems are developed, and the formal behavior of the elliptically constrained scheme developed by Padovan (1981) is discussed in detail. Consideration is given to global and local rates of convergence, to the determination of the occurrence of safety zones wherein the algorithm yields inherently convergent results, to formal limitations on the class of functions which the scheme can be applied to solve, and to single and multidimensional formalisms on existence uniqueness and convergence. Special attention is given to functions whose Jacobian matrix exhibit positive, negative, semi and indefinite properties. Several significant advantages of ECINR over the classical INR are mentioned.

Padovan, J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Bending waves in Saturn's rings

Saturn A ring brightness variations are investigated and noted to be caused by vertical corrugations of the local ring plane due to a spiral bending wave, resonantly excited by Mimas, which propagates inwardly by way of the ring particle collective gravity. Some aspects of the presently developed theory of forced bending waves have been previously treated in the galactic context. It is noted that the theory is generally in good agreement with observations, and in particular may resolve the conflict between ground-based estimates of 1-2 km for the global ring thickness and Voyager stellar occultation measurements of less than 200 m for the local ring thickness.

Shu, F. H.↗