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An overview is given of the changes in neutral composition that occur in the upper thermosphere during geomagnetic storms. Emphasis is given to solar EUV radiation, upward propagating tides and gravity waves, and coupling between magnetosphere and the ionosphere/thermosphere as the sources of the compositional changes. Present understanding of the poststorm recovery is summarized.
The Ulysses solar wind plasma experiment observed a series of interplanetary shocks and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the latter evidenced by counterstreaming electrons and a variety of ion signatures, during March and April 1991. A striking sequence was observed near 2.5 AU from March 23 through April 2, with the second of two counterstreaming events lasting 6.4 days. The plasma observations for these features are summarized suggesting that the second counterstreaming period may be two juxtaposed CMEs. The relationship between the events observed at Ulysses, about 60 deg east of earth in ecliptic longitude, and those causing a geomagnetic storm on March 24, is unclear.
High-latitude ionospheric currents, plasma temperatures, densities, and composition are all affected by the time-dependent response of the neutral thermosphere to ion drag and Joule heating through a variety of complex feedback processes. These processes can best be studied numerically using the appropriate nonlinear numerical modeling techniques in conjunction with experimental case studies. In particular, the basic physics of these processes can be understood using a model, and these concepts can then be applied to more complex realistic situations by developing the appropriate simulations of real events. Finally, these model results can be compared with satellite-derived data from the thermosphere. We used numerical simulations from the National Center of Atmospheric Research Thermosphere/Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR TIGCM) and data from the Dynamic Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite to study the time-dependent effects of the inertia of the neutral thermosphere on ionospheric currents, plasma temperatures, densities, and composition. One particular case of these inertial effects is the so-called 'fly-wheel effect'. This effect occurs when the neutral gas, that has been spun-up by the large ionospheric winds associated with a geomagnetic storm, moves faster than the ions in the period after the end of the main phase of the storm. In these circumstances, the neutral gas can drag the ions along with them. It is this last effect, which is described in the next section, that we have studied under this grant.
During the plasmasphere filling process following geomagnetic storms, an outward density decrease of the cold plasma at L = 3-4 is typically observed. When this structure overlaps with the sharp inner edge of the ring current, wave activity is detected at linearly stable phase velocities. The excitation of these waves around the lower hybrid frequency and their effects on the heating of thermal ions is analyzed. It is found that lower hybrid drift waves are most effective at heating lower mass ions, e.g. plasmaspheric H(+), versus He(+), which may be heated more effectively by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves driven unstable by the ring current loss cone.
Studies have shown that Earth passages of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) trigger geomagnetic storms. Early identification of fast earth-directed CME can help provide storm warnings, but detection of such by coronagraphs is extremely difficult. We suggest that energetic hydrogen atoms (EHA) between 2 and 10 keV produced during the transit phase of an Earth-directed CME by recombination between protons and electrons in the CME can travel ahead of the CME and act as harbingers of a magnetic storm. This forecasting scheme should work if enough EHA are produced, because while CMEs decelerate continuously after their ejection, the EHA fluxes produced in the initial phase of fast CMEs propagate at their initial high speeds. Model simulations support this proposed mechanism.
Thermospheric temperature and neutral density measurements from Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) have been used to study the time-dependent response of the equatorial thermosphere to geomagnetic forcing. Data taken following the onsets of several different geomagnetic storms have been used in a superposed-epoch scheme to investigate the characteristic response of the density and temperature structure of the equatorial thermosphere at about 350 km altitude in the morning and evening local-time sectors. Two travelling waves, one generated at northern high latitudes and one at southern high latitudes, pass through the equatorial thermosphere, with wave crests crossing the equator at a time lag of 3-6 hrs after the storm onset. Following the passage of these travelling waves, the densities and temperatures in the evening sector return relatively rapidly to their undisturbed state, whereas those in the morning sector have significant variations at longer lag times. In particular, significant increases in neutral density and temperature occur in the morning sector about 12 hrs after the onset of the storm.
The monthly and daily samples of the Ap index for the interval from 1932 through 1982 were studied using the power spectrum technique. Results obtained for Bartel's period (about 27 days), the semiannual period, the dual-peak solar cycle distribution of geomagnetic storms, and certain other medium-scale periodicities are examined in detail. In addition, results on the cumulative occurrence number of storms per decade as a function of the Ap and Dst indices for the storm are presented.
The work proposed under this grant came in three parts. The first involved extending our continuing study of electrodynamical feedback between the thermosphere/ionosphere and the magnetosphere. The second was a model-experiment comparison study of global dynamics and the third was a 'spectral energetics' analysis of tidal dissipation and energy exchange mechanisms. In the past year, progress has been made on all three topics. A paper is in press about electrodynamic feedback, and another is also in press on an element of the 'spectral energetics' analysis. Furthermore, a paper is being prepared on global dynamics variations in response to geomagnetic storms. In addition, much of the data needed for further studies on global dynamics is being prepared for inclusion in a relational database. This report is organized into several separate sections. In the next section, we present an introduction to the work that we are doing in this proposal. We discuss the progress made in our work and some results in section 3. In the last section, we summarize the work.
To obtain a better understanding of the wave-particle mechanisms responsible for the loss of electrons from the radiation belts, energetic electron data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) was studied. Powerful ground-based VLF transmitters resonantly scatter electrons from the inner radiation belt onto trajectories from which they precipitate into the atmosphere as they drift eastward. 563 instances in which the satellite traversed a cloud of energetic electrons which had been scattered into quasi-trapped trajectories were identified. From the longitude distribution, it was concluded that waves from the VLF transmitter NWC at 114 deg E are the origin of 257 of the events, and waves from UMSat 44 deg E related to 45 more. In another 177 cases the electrons had drifted from the longitude of these transmitters to a location in the western hemisphere. The previously reported seasonal variation in the frequency of occurrence of cyclotron resonance interaction is confirmed with the continuous coverage provided by GRO. The frequency of occurrence of the cyclotron resonance interactions is largest before sunrise, which we attribute to the diurnal variations in the transmission VLF waves through the ionosphere. For the first time, unique very narrow sheets of electrons occurring in the aftermath of a large geomagnetic storm are reported.
This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.
This study presents the results of a spacecraft charging effects protection study conducted on the Solar X-ray Imager (SXI). The SXI is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for NOAA's Space Environment Laboratory, and will be used to aid in forecasting energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. Images will provide information on the intensity and location of solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and high speed solar streams. The SXI will be flown on a next-generation GOES sometime in the mid to late 1990's. Charging due to the encounter with a worst-case magnetic substorm environment is modeled using the NASCAP/GEO computer code. Charging levels of exterior surfaces and the floating potential of the spacecraft relative to plasma are determined as a function of spacecraft design, operational configuration, and orbital conditions. Areas where large surface voltage gradients exist on or near the SXI are identified as possible arc-discharge sites. Results of the charging analysis are then used to develop design recommendations that will limit the effects of spacecraft charging on the SXI operation.
Traditional methods of cross-correlation of two time series do not apply to point time series. Here, a new method, devised specifically for point series, utilizes a correlation measure that is based in the rms difference (or, alternatively, the median absolute difference) between nearest neightbors in overlapped segments of the two series. Error estimates for the observed locations of the points, as well as a systematic shift of one series with respect to the other to accommodate a constant, but unknown, lead or lag, are easily incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo techniques. A methodological restriction adopted here is that one series be treated as a template series against which the other, called the target series, is cross-correlated. To estimate a significance level for the correlation measure, the adopted alternative (null) hypothesis is that the target series arises from a homogeneous Poisson process. The new method is applied to cross-correlating the times of the greatest geomagnetic storms with the times of maximum in the undecennial solar activity cycle.
Space science began with the indirect phase where the activity in space was inferred from such terrestrial phenomena as geomagnetic storms, ionospheric variations, and fluctuations in the cosmic ray intensity. The direct phase was initiated with spaceflight placing instruments directly in space and permitting the direct observation of UV and X rays, as well as precision observations of solar luminosity variations. The evidence from these many direct studies, together with the historical record of terrestrial conditions, shows that the variations of the luminosity of the Sun affect the terrestrial atmosphere at all levels, with devastating changes in climate tracking the major changes in the activity level and luminosity of the Sun. The quantification and understanding of this vital connection should be the first priority of space science and geophysics, from oceans and atmosphere through the ionosphere, magnetosphere, and all the way to the convective zone of the Sun. It becomes the vital phase of space science, focused on the basic science of the changing habitability of Earth.
In replying to a comment by Hudson et. al. (1995) in regards to Gosling (1993), Gosling (1995) holds that solar flares do not play a major role in geomagnetic storms. According to Gosling, Hudson et. al. has done nothing to demonstrate that flares either produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or cause major disturbances in the near-Earth space environment.
From a study of the 21 largest geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 21, a strong correlation is established between the ring current index Dst and the time-weighted accumulation of the 1-hour auroral electrojets indices, AE and AL. The time-weighted accumulation corresponds to convolution of the auroral electrojet indices with an exponential weighting function with an e-folding time of 9.4 hours. The weighted indices AE(sub w) and AL(sub w) have correltation coefficients against Dst ranging between 0.8 and 0.95 for 20 of the 21 storms. Correlation over the entire solar cycle 21 database is also strong but not as strong as for an individual storm. A set of simple Dst prediction functions provide a first approximation of the inferred dependence, but the specific functional relationship of Dst (AL(sub w)) or Dst (AL(sub w)) varies from one storm to the next in a systematic way. This variation reveals a missing parametric dependence in the transfer function. However, our results indicate that auroral electroject indices are potentially useful for predicting storm time enhancements of ring current intensity with a few hours lead time.
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the frequency range below the helium gyrofrequency can be excited in the equatorial region of the outer magnetosphere by cyclotron resonant instability with anisotropic ring current H(+) ions. As the unducted waves propagate to higher latitudes, the wave normal should become highly inclined to the ambient magnetic field. Under such conditions, wave energy can be absorbed by cyclotron resonant interactions with ambient O(+), leading to ion heating perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field. Resonant wave absorption peaks in the vicinity of the bi-ion frequency and the second harmonic of the O(+) gyrofrequrency. This absorption should mainly occur at latitudes between 10 deg and 30 deg along auroral field lines (L is greater than or equal to 7) in the postnoon sector. The concomitant ion heating perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field can contribute to the isotropization and geomagnetic trapping of collapsed O(+) ion conics (or beams) that originate from a low-altitude ionospheric source region. During geomagnetic storms when the O(+) content of the magnetosphere is significantly enhanced, the absorption of EMIC waves should become more efficient, and it may contribute to the observed acceleration of O(+) ions of ionospheric origin up to ring current energies.
The decay of the major ion species which constitute the ring current is studied by solving the time evolution of their distribution functions during the recovery phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. In this work, only equatorially mirroring particles are considered. Particles are assumed to move subject to E x B and gradient drifts. They also experience loses along their drift paths. Two loss mechanisms are considered: charge exchange with neutral hydrogen atoms and Coulomb collisions with thermal plasma in the plasmasphere. Thermal plasma densities are calculated with a plasmaspheric model employing a time-dependent convection electric field model. The drift-loss model successfully reproduces a number of important and observable features in the distribution function. Charge exchange is found to be the major loss mechanism for the ring current ions; however the important effects of Coulomb collisions on both the ring current and thermal populations are also presented. The model predicts the formation of a low-energy (less than 500 eV) ion population as a result of energy degradation caused by Coulomb collision of the ring current ions with the plasmaspheric electrons; this population may be one source of the low-energy ions observed during active and quiet periods in the inner magnetosphere. The energy transferred to plasmaspheric electrons through Coulomb collisions with ring current ions is believed to be the energy source for the electron temperature enhancement and the associated 6300 A (stable auroral red (SAR) arc) emission in the subauroral region. The calculated energy deposition rate is sufficient to produce a subauroral electron temperature enhancement and SAR arc emissions that are consistent with observations of these quantities during moderate magnetic activity levels.
Interplanetary shocks often propagate along the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS) where the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity. This problem is investigated by the time-dependent 2.5-D MHD numerical model in the meridional plane. An example of computation is shown in the figure using density (log) contours and IMF vectors. Values of plasma parameters along the HPS fluctuate in time due to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The HPS with its decreased intensity of the IMF as well as with its increased mass density causes a dimple in the shock structure (relatively weak for the forward shock, significant for the reverse shock, and very large for the contact discontinuity). Beyond the forward shock, the HPS is slightly compressed due to the post-shock increase of the azimuthal IMF component. Then follows expansion of the HPS surrounded by the highly-deformed contact discontinuity. A significant draping of IMF lines occurs around this structure that increases the meridional component of the IMF. This can cause a favorable condition for initiation of a geomagnetic storm.