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At least 577 records · Page 32

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NASA NTRS1991

Extratropical aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation in length-of-day and atmospheric angular momentum

The 40-50-d oscillation in length-of-day (LOD) and AAM is investigated using the 12-yr overlap between two records: AAM data, compiled from the NMC, and LOD variation from the JPL Kalman-filtered earth rotation series. The NMC records are analyzed by latitude belts, in the light of the UCLA GCM results, in order to identify possibly distinct sources of the AAM oscillation in the midlatitudes and the tropics. Results suggest that two intraseasonal oscillations exist in the earth-atmosphere system: a tropical 50-d oscillation associated with the convectively driven waves of the type first described by Madden and Julian (1971) and a midlatitude 40-d oscillation associated with the interaction of nonzonal flow with topography.

Dickey, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Persistence and predictability in a perfect model

A realistic two-level GCM is used to examine the relationship between predictability and persistence. Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from perturbed initial conditions, and persistence is defined in terms of the autocorrelation function based on a single long-term model integration. The average skill of the dynamical forecasts is compared with the skill of simple persistence-based statistical forecasts. For initial errors comparable in magnitude to present-day analysis errors, the statistical forecast loses all skill after about one week, reflecting the lifetime of the lowest frequency fluctuations in the model. Large ensemble mean dynamical forecasts would be expected to remain skillful for about 3 wk. The disparity between the skill of the statistical and dynamical forecasts is greater for the higher frequency modes, which have little memory beyond 1 d, yet remain predictable for about 2 wk. The results are analyzed in terms of two characteristic time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Role of a cumulus parameterization scheme in simulating atmospheric circulation and rainfall in the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model

The influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle is investigated by means of a coarse version of the GCM. Two sets of integrations, each containing an ensemble of three summer simulations, were produced. The ensemble sets of control and experiment simulations are compared and differentially analyzed to determine the influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated circulation and hydrologic cycle. The results show that cumulus parameterization has a very significant influence on the simulation circulation and precipitation. The upper-level condensation heating over the ITCZ is much smaller for the experiment simulations as compared to the control simulations; correspondingly, the Hadley and Walker cells for the control simulations are also weaker and are accompanied by a weaker Ferrel cell in the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, the difference fields show that experiment simulations (without cumulus convection) produce a cooler and less energetic atmosphere.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An analysis of simulated summer blocking episodes

A summer simulation using high-resolution Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM with realistic ocean surface temperatures has been able to generate persistent blocking events in Eurasia and the eastern Pacific during the 46-day period from July 1 to August 15, 1979. The generation of summer blocking episodes appears to be due at least partly to heating at the surface boundary over both the oceanic and continental areas. A control run with the SST climatology failed to produce such blockings in the late portion of the simulation. It is shown that there is considerable forecast skill in the area of the blocking circulations, particularly in the confluence area downstream. It appears that, with updated SSTs, simulation of realistic summer blocking episodes in the Northern Hemisphere is possible at least for a one-and-a-half month period, with a high forecast skill when the blocking pattern develops or is reinforced.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effect of solar cycle variations on the thermosphere

A review of current knowledge of the effect of solar activity on the thermosphere is presented. Data obtained by the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft and model results from the NCAR Thermospheric GCM, which demonstrate the effect of increased solar and geomagnetic activity on composition, temperature and the dynamic structure of the upper atmosphere are discussed. It is shown how subtle change in the IMF can affect the form of the neutral gas circulation at high latitudes, with important implications for polar orbiting spacecraft.

Mccormac, F. G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling orbital changes on tectonic time scales

Geologic time series indicate significant 100 ka and 400 ka pre-Pleistocene climate fluctuations, prior to the time of such fluctuations in Pleistocene ice sheets. The origin of these fluctuations must therefore depend on phenomena other than the ice sheets. In a previous set of experiments, we tested the sensitivity of an energy balance model to orbital insolation forcing, specifically focusing on the filtering effect of the Earth's geography. We found that in equatorial areas, the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator interacts with the precession index to generate 100 ka and 400 ka power in our modeled time series. The effect is proportional to the magnitude of land in equatorial regions. We suggest that such changes may reflect monsoonal variations in the real climate system, and the subsequent wind and weathering changes may transfer some of this signal to the marine record. A comparison with observed fluctuations of Triassic lake levels is quite favorable. A number of problems remain to be studied or clarified: (1) the EBM experiments need to be followed up by a limited number of GCM experiments; (2) the sensitivity to secular changes in orbital forcing needs to be examined; (3) the possible modifying role of sedimentary processes on geologic time series warrants considerably more study; (4) the effect of tectonic changes on Earth's rotation rate needs to be studied; and (5) astronomers need to make explicit which of their predictions are robust and geologists and astronomers have to agree on which of the predictions are most testable in the geologic record.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The maintenance of low-frequency atmospheric anomalies

A linear diagnostic analysis of four prominent low-frequency atmospheric perturbation patterns in a GCM is carried out to determine the mechanism responsible for the maintenance of these patterns. Results indicate that interactions between the low-frequency patterns and the time-mean zonal asymmetries of the model climate are crucial to the maintenance of the patterns. Of equal importance are anomalous fluxes from transients. Vorticity fluxes due to bandpass (1-7 days) fluctuations ranging over broad sectors of the globe were found to be the most important components of the maintenance of flux anomalies. The nonlinear interactions of the low-frequency deviations with themselves were only of secondary importance.

Branstator, Grant↗

NASA NTRS1992

A comparative analysis of two land surface heterogeneity representations

Two contrasting representations of land surface variability used in general circulation models (GCMs) are compared through an analysis of their corresponding surface energy balance equations. In one representation (the 'mixture' approach), different vegetation types are assumed to be homogeneously mixed over a grid square, so that the GCM atmosphere sees near-surface conditions pertaining to the mixture only. In the second representation (the 'mosaic' approach), different vegetation types are viewed as separate 'tiles' of a grid-square 'mosaic', and each tile interacts with the atmosphere independently. The mosaic approach is computationally simpler and in many ways more flexible than the mixture approach. Analytical solutions to the linearized energy balance equations and numerical solutions to the nonlinear equations both demonstrate that the mixture strategy, when applied to two coexisting vegetation types that differ only in canopy transpiration resistance, promotes both total turbulent flux and latent heat flux relative to the mosaic strategy. The effective differences between the strategies, however, are small over a wide range of conditions. In particular, the strategies are effectively equivalent when the transpiration resistances of the different vegetation types are of the same order of magnitude.

Koster, Randal D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Scientific investigations planned for the Lidar in-Space Technology Experiment (LITE)

The Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) is being developed by NASA/Langley Research Center for a series of flights on the space shuttle beginning in 1994. Employing a three-wavelength Nd:YAG laser and a 1-m-diameter telescope, the system is a test-bed for the development of technology required for future operational spaceborne lidars. The system has been designed to observe clouds, tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols, characteristics of the planetary boundary layer, and stratospheric density and temperature perturbations with much greater resolution than is available from current orbiting sensors. In addition to providing unique datasets on these phenomena, the data obtained will be useful in improving retrieval algorithms currently in use. Observations of clouds and the planetary boundary layer will aid in the development of global climate model (GCM) parameterizations. This article briefly describes the LITE program and discusses the types of scientific investigations planned for the first flight.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mars atmospheric dynamics as simulated by the NASA Ames General Circulation Model. II - Transient baroclinic eddies

A large set of experiments performed with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model is analyzed to determine the properties, structure, and dynamics of the simulated transient baroclinic eddies. There is strong transient baroclinic eddy activity in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere during the northern autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The eddy activity remains strong for very large dust loadings, though it shifts northward. The eastward propagating eddies are characterized by zonal wavenumbers of 1-4 and periods of about 2-10 days. The properties of the GCM baroclinic eddies in the northern extratropics are compared in detail with analogous properties inferred from Viking Lander meteorology observations.

Barnes, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Sea surface height variability during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific Ocean

A description of the sea surface height variabilities during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific Ocean is presented on the basis of Geosat altimeter data and a tropical Pacific Ocean GCM (OGCM) forced with observed winds from Florida State University. Both data sets are validated against in situ sea-level measurements at 12 selected sea-level stations in the equatorial Pacific and were found to be in good agreement with these measurements with correlation coefficients of 0.69 for Geosat and 0.71 for OGCM. The Geosat altimeter data are capable of describing sea surface height variabilities during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific, in particular, the seasonal cycle, the 1987 El Nino and 1988 La Nina episodes, and the December 1986 equatorial Kelvin wave event. The OGCM-simulated surface dynamic height is found to be sensitive to different surface wind products.

Chao, YI↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulations of the trend and annual cycle in stratospheric CO2

Literature data on mid-latitude balloon soundings of CO2 and aircraft sampling in the lower polar stratosphere during the winter are used as a fundamental test of tracer transport in the middle atmospheric version of the GISS GCM (Rind et al., 1990) to predict the propagation into the stratosphere of the annual increase and annual cycle of CO2. The results predict significant propagation of the CO2 annual cycle into the lower stratosphere, an effect which must be accounted for when interpreting observations.

Hall, Timothy M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A Lagrangian analysis of a sudden stratospheric warming - Comparison of a model simulation and LIMS observations

Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Pierce, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

Turner, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric water vapor in the NCAR CCM2

Results are presented of the water vapor distribution in a 3D GCM with good vertical resolution, a state-of-the-art transport scheme, and a realistic water vapor source in the middle atmosphere. In addition to water vapor, the model transported methane and an idealized clock tracer, which provides transport times to and within the middle atmosphere. The water vapor and methane distributions are compared with Nimbus 7 SAMS and LIMS data and with in situ measurements. It is argued that the hygropause in the model is maintained not by 'freeze-drying' at the tops of tropical cumulonimbus, but by a balance between two sources and one sink. Since the southern winter dehydration is unrealistically intense, this balance most likely does not resemble the balance in the real atmosphere.

Mote, Philip W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulation of summertime ozone over North America

The concentrations of O3 and its precursors over North America are simulated for three summer months with a 3D, continental-scale photochemical model using meteorological input from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. The model has 4 x 5 deg grid resolution and represents nonlinear chemistry in urban and industrial plumes with a subgrid nested scheme. Simulated median afternoon O3 concentrations at rural U.S. sites are within 5 ppb of observations in most cases, except in the south central U.S., where concentrations are overpredicted by 15-20 ppb. The model captures successfully the development of regional high-O3 episodes over the northeastern United States on the back side of weak, warm, stagnant anticyclones. Simulated concentrations of CO and nonmethane hydrocarbons are generally in good agreement with observations, concentrations of NO(x) are underpredicted by 10-30 percent, and concentrations of PANs are overpredicted by a factor of 2 to 3. The overprediction of PANs is attributed to flaws in the photochemical mechanism, including excessive production from oxidation of isoprene, and may also reflect an underestimate of PANs deposition. Subgrid nonlinear chemistry as captured by the nested plumes scheme decreases the net O3 production computed in the U.S. boundary layer by 8 percent on average.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An observational search for CO2 ice clouds on Mars

CO2 ice clouds were first directly identified on Mars by the Mariner 6 and 7 infrared spectrometer limb scans. These observations provided support for early theoretical modeling efforts of CO2 condensation. Mariner 9 IRIS temperature profiles of north polar hood clouds were interpreted as indicating that these clouds were composed of H2O ice at lower latitudes and CO2 ice at higher latitudes. The role of CO2 condensation on Mars has recently received increased attention because (1) Kasting's model results indicated that CO2 cloud condensation limits the magnitude of the proposed early Mars CO2/H2O greenhouse, and (2) Pollack el al.'s GCM results indicated that the formation of CO2 ice clouds is favorable at all polar latitudes during the fall and winter seasons. These latter authors have shown that CO2 clouds play an important role in the polar energy balance, as the amount of CO2 contained in the polar caps is constrained by a balance between latent heat release, heat advected from lower latitudes, and thermal emission to space. The polar hood clouds reduce the amount of CO2 condensation on the polar caps because they reduce the net emission to space. There have been many extensive laboratory spectroscopic studies of H2O and CO2 ices and frosts. In this study, we use results from these and other sources to search for the occurrence of diagnostic CO2 (and H2O) ice and/or frost absorption features in ground based near-infrared imaging spectroscopic data of Mars. Our primary goals are (1) to try to confirm the previous direct observations of CO2 clouds on Mars; (2) to determine the spatial extent, temporal variability, and composition (H2O/CO2 ratio) of any clouds detected; and (3) through radiative transfer modeling, to try to determine the mean particle size and optical depth of polar hood clouds, thus, assessing their role in the polar heat budget.

Bell, James F., III↗