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At least 577 records · Page 32

Effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

The overall goal of this study was to provide a quantitative understanding of the cycling of carbon in the soils associated with deep-rooting Amazon forests. In particular, we wished to apply the understanding gained by answering two questions: (1) what changes will accompany the major land use change in this region, the conversion of forest to pasture? and (2) what is the role of carbon stored deeper than one meter in depth in these soils? To construct carbon budgets for pasture and forest soils we combined the following: measurements of carbon stocks in above-ground vegetation, root biomass, detritus, and soil organic matter; rates of carbon inputs to soil and detrital layers using litterfall collection and sequential coring to estimate fine root turnover; C-14 analyses of fractionated SOM and soil CO2 to estimate residence times; C-13 analyses to estimate C inputs to pasture soils from C-4 grasses; soil pCO2, volumetric water content, and radon gradients to estimate CO2 production as a function of soil depth; soil respiration to estimate total C outputs; and a model of soil C dynamics that defines SOM fractions cycling on annual, decadal, and millennial time scales.

Trumbore, Susan E.↗

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation for the X-43A (Hyper-X) from Flight Data

Aerodynamic parameters were estimated based on flight data from the third flight of the X-43A hypersonic research vehicle, also called Hyper-X. Maneuvers were flown using multiple orthogonal phase-optimized sweep inputs applied as simultaneous control surface perturbations at Mach 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 during the vehicle descent. Aerodynamic parameters, consisting of non-dimensional longitudinal and lateral stability and control derivatives, were estimated from flight data at each Mach number. Multi-step inputs at nearly the same flight conditions were also flown to assess the prediction capability of the identified models. Prediction errors were found to be comparable in magnitude to the modeling errors, which indicates accurate modeling. Aerodynamic parameter estimates were plotted as a function of Mach number, and compared with estimates from the pre-flight aerodynamic database, which was based on wind-tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics. Agreement between flight estimates and values computed from the aerodynamic database was excellent overall.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Dose Calibration of the ISS-RAD Fast Neutron Detector

The ISS-RAD instrument has been fabricated by Southwest Research Institute and delivered to NASA for flight to the ISS in late 2015 or early 2016. ISS-RAD is essentially two instruments that share a common interface to ISS. The two instruments are the Charged Particle Detector (CPD), which is very similar to the MSL-RAD detector on Mars, and the Fast Neutron Detector (FND), which is a boron-loaded plastic scintillator with readout optimized for the 0.5 to 10 MeV energy range. As the FND is completely new, it has been necessary to develop methodology to allow it to be used to measure the neutron dose and dose equivalent. This talk will focus on the methods developed and their implementation using calibration data obtained in quasi-monoenergetic (QMN) neutron fields at the PTB facility in Braunschweig, Germany. The QMN data allow us to determine an approximate response function, from which we estimate dose and dose equivalent contributions per detected neutron as a function of the pulse height. We refer to these as the "pSv per count" curves for dose equivalent and the "pGy per count" curves for dose. The FND is required to provide a dose equivalent measurement with an accuracy of 10% of the known value in a calibrated AmBe field. Four variants of the analysis method were developed, corresponding to two different approximations of the pSv per count curve, and two different implementations, one for real-time analysis onboard ISS and one for ground analysis. We will show that the preferred method, when applied in either real-time or ground analysis, yields good accuracy for the AmBe field. We find that the real-time algorithm is more susceptible to chance-coincidence background than is the algorithm used in ground analysis, so that the best estimates will come from the latter.

Zeitlin, C.↗

Dark Matter in γ lines: Galactic Center vs. dwarf galaxies

We provide CTA sensitivities to Dark Matter (DM) annihilation in γ-ray lines, from the observation of the Galactic Center (GC) as well as, for the first time, of dwarf Spheroidal galaxies (dSphs). We compare the GC reach with that of dSphs as a function of a putative core radius of the DM distribution, which is itself poorly known. We find that the currently best dSph candidates constitute a more promising target than the GC, for core radii of one to a few kpc. We use the most recent instrument response functions and background estimations by CTA, on top of which we add the diffuse photon component. Our analysis is of particular interest for TeV-scale electroweak multiplets as DM candidates, such as the supersymmetric Wino and the Minimal Dark Matter fiveplet, whose predictions we compare with our projected sensitivities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CO 2 Sorption in Moisture Swing Anion Exchange Resins for Direct Air Capture: Experimental Isotherm Determination and Modeling

Moisture swing (MS) sorption is a promising direct air capture (DAC) technology to achieve negative CO 2 emissions and counter global warming. Here, in this study, MS CO 2 sorption in a model MS sorbent, IRA900, was investigated. IRA900 is a macroporous commercial strong-base anion exchange resin (AER) with quaternary ammonium functional groups. A rigorous CO 2 desorption process was developed to desorb all CO 2 from the sample and obtain CO 2 sorption isotherms as a function of relative humidity, CO 2 partial pressure, and temperature. CO 2 sorption increased with decreasing relative humidity, decreasing temperature, and increasing CO 2 partial pressure. Remarkably, the total CO 2 uptake from the sorption isotherms matched the ion exchange capacity (IEC) of the material, suggesting a stoichiometry of one CO 2 molecule reacting per active site. An isotherm model for CO 2 sorption starting with empty sorption sites (i.e., with the AER in the OH – form) described the experimental data well, supporting the hypothesis that the bicarbonate-loaded AER fully unloaded to the OH – state following rigorous CO 2 desorption. CO 2 sorption kinetics were studied, and carbon diffusion coefficients were estimated as a function of %RH and CO 2 partial pressure. Overall, this study provides a roadmap for the systematic evaluation of MS CO 2 DAC materials.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The impact of kidney function on Alzheimer’s disease blood biomarkers: implications for predicting amyloid-β positivity

Impaired kidney function has a potential confounding effect on blood biomarker levels, including biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Given the imminent use of certain blood biomarkers in the routine diagnostic work-up of patients with suspected AD, knowledge on the potential impact of comorbidities on the utility of blood biomarkers is important. We aimed to evaluate the association between kidney function, assessed through estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated from plasma creatinine and AD blood biomarkers, as well as their influence over predicting Aβ-positivity. We included 242 participants from the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) cohort, comprising cognitively unimpaired individuals (CU; n = 124), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 58), AD dementia (n = 34), and non-AD dementia (n = 26) patients all characterized by [ 18 F] AZD-4694. Plasma samples were analyzed for Aβ42, Aβ40, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181), 217 (p-tau217), 231 (p-tau231) and N-terminal containing tau fragments (NTA-tau) using Simoa technology. Kidney function was assessed by eGFR in mL/min/1.73 m 2 , based on plasma creatinine levels, age, and sex. Participants were also stratified according to their eGFR-indexed stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We evaluated the association between eGFR and blood biomarker levels with linear models and assessed whether eGFR provided added predictive value to determine Aβ-positivity with logistic regression models. Biomarker concentrations were highest in individuals with CKD stage 3, followed by stages 2 and 1, but differences were only significant for NfL, Aβ42, and Aβ40 (not Aβ42/Aβ40). All investigated biomarkers showed significant associations with eGFR except plasma NTA-tau, with stronger relationships observed for Aβ40 and NfL. However, after adjusting for either age, sex or Aβ-PET SUVr, the association with eGFR was no longer significant for all biomarkers except Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. When evaluating whether accounting for kidney function could lead to improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, we observed no improvements in model fit (Akaike Information Criterion, AIC) or in discriminative performance (AUC) by adding eGFR to a base model including each plasma biomarker, age, and sex. While covariates like age and sex improved model fit, eGFR contributed minimally, and there were no significant differences in clinical discrimination based on AUC values. We found that kidney function seems to be associated with AD blood biomarker concentrations. However, these associations did not remain significant after adjusting for age and sex, except for Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. While covariates such as age and sex improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, including eGFR in the models did not lead to improved prediction for any biomarker. Our findings indicate that renal function, within the normal to mild impairment range, does not seem to have a clinically relevant impact when using highly accurate blood biomarkers, such as p-tau217, in a biomarker-supported diagnosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Updated Value of Service Reliability Estimates for Electric Utility Customers in the United States

This report updates the 2009 meta-analysis that provides estimates of the value of service reliability for electricity customers in the United States (U.S.). The meta-dataset now includes 34 different datasets from surveys fielded by 10 different utility companies between 1989 and 2012. Because these studies used nearly identical interruption cost estimation or willingness-to-pay/accept methods, it was possible to integrate their results into a single meta-dataset describing the value of electric service reliability observed in all of them. Once the datasets from the various studies were combined, a two-part regression model was used to estimate customer damage functions that can be generally applied to calculate customer interruption costs per event by season, time of day, day of week, and geographical regions within the U.S. for industrial, commercial, and residential customers. This report focuses on the backwards stepwise selection process that was used to develop the final revised model for all customer classes. Across customer classes, the revised customer interruption cost model has improved significantly because it incorporates more data and does not include the many extraneous variables that were in the original specification from the 2009 meta-analysis. The backwards stepwise selection process led to a more parsimonious model that only included key variables, while still achieving comparable out-of-sample predictive performance. In turn, users of interruption cost estimation tools such as the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator will have less customer characteristics information to provide and the associated inputs page will be far less cumbersome. The upcoming new version of the ICE Calculator is anticipated to be released in 2015.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Relationships between the Stellar, Gaseous, and Star Formation Disks in LITTLE THINGS Dwarf Irregular Galaxies: Indirect Evidence for Substantial Fractions of Dark Molecular Gas

The stellar, gaseous and young stellar disks in the LITTLE THINGS sample of nearby dwarf irregular galaxies are fitted with functions to search for correlations between the parameters. We find that the H i radial profiles are generally flatter in the center and fall faster in the outer regions than the V-band profiles, while young stars are more centrally concentrated, especially if the H i is more centrally flat. This pattern suggests that the H i is turning into molecules in the center, and the molecular clouds are forming stars and FUV. A model that assumes the molecular surface density is proportional to the total gas surface density to a power of 1.5 or 2, in analogy with the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation, reproduces the relationship between the ratio of the visible to the H i scale length and the H i Sérsic index. The molecular fraction is estimated as a function of radius for each galaxy by converting the FUV to a molecular surface density using conventional calibrations. The average molecular fraction inside 3R {sub D} is 23% ± 17%. However, the break in the stellar surface brightness profile has no unified tracer related to star formation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Automated frequency domain system identification of a large space structure

This paper presents the development and experimental results of an automated on-orbit system identification method for large flexible spacecraft that yields estimated quantities to support on-line design and tuning of robust high performance control systems. The procedure consists of applying an input to the plant, obtaining an output, and then conducting nonparametric identification to yield the spectral estimate of the system transfer function. A parametric model is determined by curve fitting the spectral estimate to a rational transfer function. The identification method has been demonstrated experimentally on the Large Spacecraft Control Laboratory in JPL.

Yam, Y.↗

Hybrid NEP-Chemical Vehicle and Propulsion Technology Study for Crewed Mars Missions

Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) is a suite of technologies with the potential to enable crewed opposition-class missions to Mars. Each subsystem comprising an NEP system has multiple technology options that present tradeoffs in vehicle sizing and technology development risk. Multiple vehicle concepts have been studied in the past and are currently being studied at NASA. Three models have been developed to illustrate the impact of key technology parameters on overall sizing for a crewed Mars transportation vehicle. Vehicle mass required to close the mission as a function of NEP system alpha (kWe/kg) and specific impulse (Isp) is estimated with a detailed trajectory model. A power system mass model estimates alpha as a function of power and radiator mass assumption. A power conversion system thermodynamic model predicts the radiator area required to close a Brayton cycle power conversion system. Combined with the architecture mass required for mission closure, the radiator area and alpha model provide insight into how technology development may impact the mission. Our focus is on parametric sweeps of the whole design space rather than any particular point design. Results from the mission model comparing electric propulsion technology (Hall, Ion, Magnetoplasmadynamic) and both 2039 and 2042 opposition-class mission launch windows are included. The results of the study illustrate the technology parameters that can result in mission closure and illustrate where the architecture is sensitive to variations in technology performance or requirements.

Matthew Duchek↗

Development of a calibrated software reliability model for flight and supporting ground software for avionic systems

The object of this project was to develop and calibrate quantitative models for predicting the quality of software. Reliable flight and supporting ground software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. The models used in the present study consisted of SMERFS (Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software). There are ten models in SMERFS. For a first run, the results obtained in modeling the cumulative number of failures versus execution time showed fairly good results for our data. Plots of cumulative software failures versus calendar weeks were made and the model results were compared with the historical data on the same graph. If the model agrees with actual historical behavior for a set of data then there is confidence in future predictions for this data. Considering the quality of the data, the models have given some significant results, even at this early stage. With better care in data collection, data analysis, recording of the fixing of failures and CPU execution times, the models should prove extremely helpful in making predictions regarding the future pattern of failures, including an estimate of the number of errors remaining in the software and the additional testing time required for the software quality to reach acceptable levels. It appears that there is no one 'best' model for all cases. It is for this reason that the aim of this project was to test several models. One of the recommendations resulting from this study is that great care must be taken in the collection of data. When using a model, the data should satisfy the model assumptions.

Lawrence, Stella↗

Night Sky Testing of the Lunar Flashlight Star Tracker

Lunar Flashlight (LF) is a 6U, 14 kg spacecraft being built by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The mission will use IR laser technology to search for volatiles and surface water ice deposits in the permanently shadowed regions (PSR) of the moon in preparation for future human lunar exploration. The fine pointing provided by the Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) system is crucial for the spacecraft to successfully reach the moon, enter a lunar orbit, and acquire scientific data. At the center of the GNC system’s ability to determine the spacecraft’s attitude is a star tracker. The LF star tracker is a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) unit built into the integrated GNC system provided by Blue Canyon Technologies. Blue Canyon tested the star tracker in a lab environment for basic functionality and attitude estimation capabilities; upon delivery of the hardware to JPL, further testing with a real night sky was desired to determine expected in-flight operational characteristics. JPL maintains the Table Mountain Facility with its suite of ground telescopes, including a 0.6m telescope with an equatorial mount. This stable platform provided a highly accurate method of providing slews and attitude holds akin to what the spacecraft will perform in flight. Therefore, by analyzing the data from these representative night-sky ground tests performed in March, 2021, it is possible to acquire expected flight performance of the star tracker, particularly in regard to the ability of the star tracker to maintain lock on the starfield during planned maneuver types. This paper presents the various tests that have been performed to ensure that the LF star tracker will function as part of the overall GNC system and integrated spacecraft once launched. Test data is included for several key tests, and a path forward towards future integration and testing at the spacecraft level is described.

Baker, John↗

Anomalous photoelectric emission from Ag on zinc-phthalocyanine film

Photoelectric emission from organic and metal thin films is generally observed with irradiation of photon energy larger than 4 eV. In this paper, however, we report photoelectric emission from Ag on a zinc-phthalocyanine (ZnPc) layer at a photon energy of 3.4 eV. The threshold energy for this photoelectric emission is much smaller than the work function of Ag estimated by conventional photoelectron spectroscopy. The photoelectric emission by low-energy photons is significant for Ag thicknesses of less than 1 nm. Photoelectron spectroscopy and morphological study of the Ag/ZnPc suggest that the anomalous photoelectric emission from the Ag surface is caused by a vacuum level shift at the Ag/ZnPc interface and by surface plasmons of the Ag nanoparticles.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Measurements of surface-pressure fluctuations on the XB-70 airplane at local Mach numbers up to 2.45

Measurements of surface-pressure fluctuations were made at two locations on the XB-70 airplane for nine flight-test conditions encompassing a local Mach number range from 0.35 to 2.45. These measurements are presented in the form of estimated power spectral densities, coherence functions, and narrow-band-convection velocities. The estimated power spectral densities compared favorably with wind-tunnel data obtained by other experimenters. The coherence function and convection velocity data supported conclusions by other experimenters that low-frequency surface-pressure fluctuations consist of small-scale turbulence components with low convection velocity.

Lewis, T. L.↗

Improved statistical models for limited datasets in uncertainty quantification using stochastic collocation

This paper presents a data-driven framework for performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) by choosing a stochastic model that accurately describes the sources of uncertainty in a system. This model is propagated through an appropriate response surface function that approximates the behavior of this system using stochastic collocation. Given a sample of data describing the uncertainty in the inputs, our goal is to estimate a probability density function (PDF) using the kernel moment matching (KMM) method so that this PDF can be used to accurately reproduce statistics like mean and variance of the response surface function. Instead of constraining the PDF to be optimal for a particular response function, we show that we can use the properties of stochastic collocation to make the estimated PDF optimal for a wide variety of response functions. We contrast this method with other traditional procedures that rely on the Maximum Likelihood approach, like kernel density estimation (KDE) and its adaptive modification (AKDE). We argue that this modified KMM method tries to preserve what is known from the given data and is the better approach when the available data is limited in quantity. We test the performance of these methods for both univariate and multivariate density estimation by sampling random datasets from known PDFs and then measuring the accuracy of the estimated PDFs, using the known PDF as a reference. Comparing the output mean and variance estimated with the empirical moments using the raw data sample as well as the actual moments using the known PDF, we show that the KMM method performs better than KDE and AKDE in predicting these moments with greater accuracy. This improvement in accuracy is also demonstrated for the case of UQ in electrostatic and electrothermomechanical microactuators. We show how our framework results in the accurate computation of statistics in micromechanical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Band-limited Green's Functions for Quantitative Evaluation of Acoustic Emission Using the Finite Element Method

A method of numerically estimating dynamic Green's functions using the finite element method is proposed. These Green's functions are accurate in a limited frequency range dependent on the mesh size used to generate them. This range can often match or exceed the frequency sensitivity of the traditional acoustic emission sensors. An algorithm is also developed to characterize an acoustic emission source by obtaining information about its strength and temporal dependence. This information can then be used to reproduce the source in a finite element model for further analysis. Numerical examples are presented that demonstrate the ability of the band-limited Green's functions approach to determine the moment tensor coefficients of several reference signals to within seven percent, as well as accurately reproduce the source-time function.

Leser, William P.↗

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry and Steepest Descent Inversion to Measure Complex Impedance

In this paper, we present a method for estimating complex impedances using reflectometry and a modified steepest descent inversion algorithm. We simulate spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR), which can measure complex impedances on energized systems for an experimental setup with resistive and capacitive loads. A parametric function, which includes both a misfit function and stabilizer function, is created. The misfit function is a least squares estimate of how close the model data matches observed data. The stabilizer function prevents the steepest descent algorithm from becoming unstable and diverging. Steepest descent iteratively identifies the model parameters that minimize the parametric function. We validate the algorithm by correctly identifying the model parameters (capacitance and resistance) associated with simulated SSTDR data, with added 3 dB white Gaussian noise. With the stabilizer function, the steepest descent algorithm estimates of the model parameters are bounded within a specified range. Furthermore, the errors for capacitance (220pF to 820pF) and resistance (50 Ω to 270 Ω) are < 10%, corresponding to a complex impedance magnitude |R +1/jωC| of 53 Ω to 510 Ω.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗