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DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on TC simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on tropical cyclone simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data. These CSV files are derived from the NetCDF files in the c0 dataset. Unlike the original format, where geographic coordinates were stored in a separate file, each CSV now embeds the corresponding latitude and longitude values alongside the measured or simulated variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Forecast 02, Domain 01

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Forecast 02, Domain 02

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

DOE OSTI2014

MO-C-17A-04: Forecasting Longitudinal Changes in Oropharyngeal Tumor Morphology Throughout the Course of Head and Neck Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To generate, evaluate, and compare models that predict longitudinal changes in tumor morphology throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe the size, shape, and position of 35 oropharyngeal GTVs at each treatment fraction during intensity-modulated radiation therapy. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and one of two shape descriptors. One shape descriptor was based on radial distances between the GTV centroid and 614 GTV surface landmarks. The other was based on a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. Feature vectors over the course of therapy were described using static, linear, and mean models. The error of these models in forecasting GTV morphology was evaluated with leave-one-out cross-validation, and their accuracy was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. The effect of adjusting model parameters at 1, 2, 3, or 5 time points (adjustment points) was also evaluated. Results: The addition of a single adjustment point to the static model decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by 1.2 mm (p<0.001). Additional adjustment points further decreased forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. The linear model decreased forecast error compared to the static model for feature vectors based on both shape descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model did so only for those based on the inter-landmark distances (0.2 mm). The decrease in forecast error due to adding adjustment points was greater than that due to model selection. Both effects diminished with subsequent adjustment points. Conclusion: Models of tumor morphology that include information from prior patients and/or prior treatment fractions are able to predict the tumor surface at each treatment fraction during radiation therapy. The predicted tumor morphology can be compared with patient anatomy or dose distributions, opening the possibility of anticipatory re-planning. American Legion Auxiliary Fellowship; The University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences at Houston.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

An Equivalent Time-Variant Storage Model to Harness EV Flexibility: Forecast and Aggregation

The demand for vehicle charging will necessitate large investments in power distribution, transmission, and generation. However, this demand is often also flexible in time, and can be actively managed to reduce the needed investments, and to better integrate renewable electricity. Harnessing this flexibility requires forecasting and controlling electric vehicle (EV) charging at thousands of stations. In this work, we address the problem of forecasting and management of the aggregate flexible demand from tens to thousands of EV supply equipment (EVSEs). First, it presents an equivalent time-variant storage model for flexible demand at an aggregation of EVSEs. The proposed model is generalizable to different markets, and also to different flexible loads. Model parameters representing multiple EVSEs can be easily aggregated by summation, and forecasted using autoregressive models. The forecastability of uncontrolled demand and storage parameters is evaluated using data from 1341 nonresidential EVSEs located in Northern California. The median coefficient of variation is as low as 24% for the forecast of uncontrolled demand at the highest aggregation and 10-15% for the storage parameters. The benefits of aggregation and forecastability are demonstrated using an energy arbitrage scenario. Purchasing energy day ahead is less expensive than in the real-time market, but relies on a uncertain forecast of charging availability. The results show that the forecastability significantly improves for larger aggregations. This helps the aggregator make a better forecast, and decreases the cost of charging in comparison to an uncontrolled case by 60% with respect to an oracle scenario.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Physics-Based DNI Model for Advancing Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting: Preprint

Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is one of the most used quantities to quantify the magnitude of solar energy resource. The concept of DNI is often interpreted differently for ground measurements and solar forecasting by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias during evaluation of DNI forecasts especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To eliminate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to provide a physics-based solution of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The FARMS-DNI is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to forecast day-ahead DNI in the north America. By comparing with conventional predictions from WRF-Solar and satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), we found significant improvements in our prediction of DNI.

DNI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Statistical Evaluation of WRF-LES Trace Gas Dispersion Using Project Prairie Grass Measurements

In recent years, new measurement systems have been deployed to monitor and quantify methane emissions from the natural gas sector. Large-eddy simulation (LES) has complemented measurement campaigns by serving as a controlled environment in which to study plume dynamics and sampling strategies. However, with few comparisons with controlled-release experiments, the accuracy of LES for modeling natural gas emissions is poorly characterized. In this paper, we evaluate LES from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model against Project Prairie Grass campaign measurements and surface layer similarity theory. Using WRF-LES, we simulate continuous emissions from 30 near-surface trace gas sources in two stability regimes: strong convection and weak convection. We examine the impact of grid resolutions ranging from 6.25 to 52 m in the horizontal dimension on model results. We evaluate performance in a statistical framework, calculating fractional bias and conducting Welch’s t tests. WRF-LES accurately simulates observed surface concentrations at 100 m and beyond under strong convection; simulated concentrations pass t tests in this region irrespective of grid resolution. However, in weakly convective conditions with strong winds, WRF-LES substantially overpredicts concentrations—the magnitude of fractional bias often exceeds 30%, and all but one t test fails. The good performance of WRF-LES under strong convection correlates with agreement with local free convection theory and a minimal amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy. The poor performance under weak convection corresponds to misalignment with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and a significant amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

Distribution system resilience enhancement is an important topic to ensure customers have access to power supply during extreme events. In fact, certain weather-related extreme events can be predicted ahead of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to predict grid outages using extreme weather forecasts, and how outage predictions can be incorporated into distribution system resilience enhancement. In this paper, a preventative scheduling model for distribution systems is proposed. The model targets at allocating resources, especially mobile responsive resources such as mobile backup generators and mobile energy storage systems, to prepare for an extreme event in the day-ahead context. To achieve efficient resource allocation and scheduling, a machine learning-based outage prediction module is developed to predict vulnerable or risky segments of the distribution system based on historical operating records and extreme weather event forecast. By integrating the outage prediction results into the scheduling model, optimal resource allocation can be derived to help distribution systems prepare for an upcoming event and improve resilience performance. A real distribution feeder in North Carolina, U.S. is used in the case study to validate the proposed approach.

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2017

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop, pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.

Fan, Jiwen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement: Preprint

Distribution system resilience enhancement is an important topic to ensure customers have access to the power supply during extreme events. In fact, certain weather-related extreme events can be predicted ahead of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to predict grid outages using extreme weather forecasts, and how outage predictions can be incorporated into distribution system resilience enhancement. In this paper, a preventative scheduling model for distribution systems is proposed. The model targets at allocating resources, especially mobile responsive resources such as mobile backup generators and mobile energy storage systems, to prepare for an extreme event in the day-ahead context. To achieve efficient resource allocation and scheduling, a machine learning-based outage prediction module is developed to predict vulnerable or risky segments of the distribution system based on historical operating records and extreme weather event forecasts. By integrating the outage prediction results into the scheduling model, optimal resource allocation can be derived to help distribution systems prepare for an upcoming event and improve resilience performance. A real distribution feeder in North Carolina, U.S. is used in the case study to validate the proposed approach.

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Multi-scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

The goal of the project was the development and demonstration of a significantly improved solar forecasting technology (short: Watt-sun), which leverages new big data processing technologies and machine-learnt blending between different models and forecast systems. The technology aimed demonstrating major advances in accuracy as measured by existing and new metrics which themselves were developed as part of this project. Finally, the team worked with Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities to integrate the forecasts into their operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Urban Representation on Simulation of Hurricane Rainfall

Abstract Taking the examples of Hurricane Florence (2018) over the Carolinas and Hurricane Harvey (2017) over the Texas Gulf Coast, the study attempts to understand the performance of slab, single‐layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM), and Building Environment Parameterization (BEP) in simulating hurricane rainfall using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model simulations showed that for an intense, large‐scale event such as a hurricane, the model quantitative precipitation forecast over the urban domain was sensitive to the model urban physics. The spatial and temporal verification using the modified Kling‐Gupta efficiency and Method for Object based Diagnostic and Evaluation in Time Domain suggests that UCM performance is superior to the BEP scheme. Additionally, using the BEP urban physics scheme over UCM for landfalling hurricane rainfall simulations has helped simulate heavy rainfall hotspots.

Geology↗