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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1971

The thunderstorm forecasting system at the Kennedy Space Center.

One of the major problems concerning meteorologists at the Kennedy Space Center, Fla, involves the forecasting of thunderstorm activity and associated adverse weather phenomena. The purpose of the study is to outline some of the more successful diagnostic tools which have been developed to aid the forecaster. These involve a variety of statistical procedures including conditional probabilities, exposure-period probabilities, and systems of multiple-regression equations based on nonlinear predictors.

Charles J Neumann↗
NASA NTRS1972

Fluid mechanics and meteorological studies directed toward improved forecasting of CAT.

Discussion of fluid mechanics experiments designed to verify theoretical understanding of the stability of stratified shear flows. Meteorological analyses of CAT encounters are reviewed, and attempts are made to tie this information together to investigate possible improvements in CAT forecasting methods. The essential facts are presented in a form intended to be useful to forecasters and flight crews.

Stoeffler, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solar flare forecasts based on mm-wavelength measurements

Solar radio temperature contour maps at a wavelength of 3.3 mm are analyzed to develop a method of forecasting solar flares of classes 1N and 1B. Fundamental to the analysis is the demonstration that most of the radio sources associated with the sunspot-plage systems are not spatially resolved by the radio telescope and, hence, only the peak temperature enhancements due to these local radio sources are employed. Evidence is presented indicating that flare-prone plage regions, which belong to recurrent families of flare-productive regions, exhibit a relationship between flare production and radio temperature characteristics considerably unlike that exhibited by virgin plage regions. The results are interpreted by means of graphs which permit the inference of class 1B or 1N flare probabilities based on the peak temperature enhancements measured at 3.3 mm. In particular, the forecast obtained is the probability that a given flare-prone plage region will produce a class 1B or 1N flare (two quoted probabilities) during the period of its disk transit.

White, K. P., III↗
NASA NTRS1972

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

Taneja, N.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

Mcmahon, J.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Handbook for Weight Estimating and Forecasting of Manned Space Systems During Conceptual Design. Volume II

Volume I of the Handbook for Weight Estimating and Forecasting of Manned Space Systems during Conceptual Design contains two manual methods of preliminary weight estimation, plus weight growth data and two methods for forecasting weight growth. The two weight estimation methods in Volume I are recommended for rapid use only during the earliest phases of design when mission knowledge and design parameters are at a minimum. Volume II contains a detailed point design method of preliminary weight estimation, to be used by either manual or computer means. This method enables greater in-depth weight assessments of designs when the necessary mission knowledge and design parameters are available. Volume II also contains the description of an associated or independent (user's option) space transportation system sizing program which has the capability of altering a point design configuration, as necessary, to assure vehicle weight, size and performance compatibility.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

Application of monochromatic ocean wave forecasts to prediction of wave-induced currents

The use of monochromatic wind-wave forecasts in prediction of wind-wave-induced currents was assessed. Currents were computed for selected combinations of wind conditions by using a spectrum approach which was developed by using the Bretschneider wave spectrum for partially developed wind seas. These currents were compared with currents computed by using the significant and average monochromatic wave parameters related to the Bretschneider spectrum. Results indicate that forecasts of significant wave parameters can be used to predict surface wind-wave-induced currents. Conversion of these parameters to average wave parameters can furnish reasonable estimates of subsurface current values.

Poole, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interpretation of snowcover from satellite imagery for use in water supply forecasts in the Sierra Nevada

The California ASVT test area is composed of two study areas; one in Northern California covering the Upper Sacramento and Feather River Basins, and the other covering the Southern Sierra Basins of the San Joaquin, Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern Rivers. Experiences of reducing snowcover from satellite imagery; the accuracy of present water supply forecast schemes; and the potential advantages of introducing snowcover into the forecast procedures are described.

Brown, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Forty and 80 GHz technology assessment and forecast including executive summary

The results of a survey to determine current demand and to forecast growth in demand for use of the 40 and 80 GHz bands during the 1980-2000 time period are given. The current state-of-the-art is presented, as well as the technology requirements of current and projected services. Potential developments were identified, and a forecast is made. The impacts of atmospheric attenuation in the 40 and 80 GHz bands were estimated for both with and without diversity. Three services for the 1980-2000 time period -- interactive television, high quality three stereo pair audio, and 30 MB data -- are given with system requirements and up and down-link calculations.

Mazur, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A preliminary study of the statistical analyses and sampling strategies associated with the integration of remote sensing capabilities into the current agricultural crop forecasting system

Extending the crop survey application of remote sensing from small experimental regions to state and national levels requires that a sample of agricultural fields be chosen for remote sensing of crop acreage, and that a statistical estimate be formulated with measurable characteristics. The critical requirements for the success of the application are reviewed in this report. The problem of sampling in the presence of cloud cover is discussed. Integration of remotely sensed information about crops into current agricultural crop forecasting systems is treated on the basis of the USDA multiple frame survey concepts, with an assumed addition of a new frame derived from remote sensing. Evolution of a crop forecasting system which utilizes LANDSAT and future remote sensing systems is projected for the 1975-1990 time frame.

Sand, F.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A plan for the economic assessment of the benefits of improved meteorological forecasts

Benefit-cost relationships for the development of meteorological satellites are outlined. The weather forecast capabilities of the various weather satellites (Tiros, SEOS, Nimbus) are discussed, and the development of additional satellite systems is examined. A rational approach is development that leads to the establishment of the economic benefits which may result from the utilization of meteorological satellite data. The economic and social impacts of improved weather forecasting for industries and resources management are discussed, and significant weather sensitive industries are listed.

Bhattacharyya, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results)

A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions. An economic experiment was carried out which will monitor citrus growers' decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events and will establish the economic benefits of improved temperature forecasts. A summary is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done. Specifically, the experiment design is described in detail as are the developed data collection methodology and procedures, sampling plan, data reduction techniques, cost and loss models, establishment of frost severity measures, data obtained from citrus growers, National Weather Service, and Federal Crop Insurance Corp., resulting protection costs and crop losses for the control group sample, extrapolation of results of control group to the Florida citrus industry and the method for normalization of these results to a normal or average frost season so that results may be compared with anticipated similar results from test group measurements.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1977

The impact of satellite soundings upon the NMC analysis and forecast system

The importance of satellite-derived soundings on National Meteorological Center weather analysis and forecast was studied by comparing summertime DST (Aug. 18-Sept. 4, 1975) forecasts generated by analyses with and without both the operational VTPR soundings from NOAA-4 and the experimental soundings derived from the infrared and microwave instruments aboard Nimbus-6. Objective and subjective procedures, including evaluation of standard skill scores and judgment by skilled synopticians, was used to evaluate the importance of satellite data. The investigation shows that satellite data do not aid numerical weather prediction in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tracton, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity and motion using Nimbus-5 ESMR measurements and non-satellite derived descriptors

An empirical analysis program, based on finding an optimal representation of the data was applied to 120 observations of 29 1973 and 1974 North Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of a field of Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived discriptors. Forecast algorithms to estimate storm intensity and motion at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after each observation were developed using an independent eigen screening analysis. These algorithms were based on best track data. Independent testing of these algorithms showed that the performance of most of these algorithms were better than persistence and the algorithms forecasting 24, 48, and 72 hour maximum wind speed were better than those made operationally by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for 1973 and 1974 that did not use best track data.

Hunter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1978

Global crop production forecasting - A simulation analysis of the data system problems and their solutions

Alternative data systems for a global crop production forecasting system were studied with the aid of a unique simulation facility called the Data System Dynamic Simulator (DSDS). Information system requirements were determined and compared with existing and planned data systems, and deficiencies were identified and analyzed. A first step was to determine the data load for an operational global crop production forecasting system as a function of data frequency, crop types, biophases, cloud coverage, and number of satellites. The DSDS was used to correlate the interrelated influence of orbital parameters, crop calendars, and cloud conditions to generate global data loading profiles. Some of the more important conclusions and the main features of the simulation system are presented.

Golden, H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Short-term solar activity forecasting

A method of forecasting the level of activity of every active region on the surface of the Sun within one to three days is proposed in order to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and proton events. The forecasting method is a probability process based on statistics. In many of the cases, the accuracy in predicting the short term solar activity was in the range of 70%, although there were many false alarms.

Xie-Zhen, C.↗