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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate temperature diagnostics for matter under extreme conditions

The experimental investigation of matter under extreme densities and temperatures, as in astrophysical objects and nuclear fusion applications, constitutes one of the most active frontiers at the interface of material science, plasma physics, and engineering. The central obstacle is given by the rigorous interpretation of the experimental results, as even the diagnosis of basic parameters like the temperature T is rendered difficult at these extreme conditions. Here, we present a simple, approximation-free method to extract the temperature of arbitrarily complex materials in thermal equilibrium from X-ray Thomson scattering experiments, without the need for any simulations or an explicit deconvolution. Our paradigm can be readily implemented at modern facilities and corresponding experiments will have a profound impact on our understanding of warm dense matter and beyond, and open up a variety of appealing possibilities in the context of thermonuclear fusion, laboratory astrophysics, and related disciplines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Generation and measurement of intense few-femtosecond superradiant extreme-ultraviolet free-electron laser pulses

Free-electron lasers producing ultrashort pulses with high peak power promise to extend ultrafast non-linear spectroscopic techniques into the extreme-ultraviolet–X-ray regime. Key aspects are the synchronization between pump and probe, and the control of the pulse properties (duration, intensity and coherence). Externally seeded free-electron lasers produce coherent pulses that can be synchronized with femtosecond accuracy. An important goal is to shorten the pulse duration, but the simple approach of shortening the seed is not sufficient because of the finite-gain bandwidth of the conversion process. An alternative is the amplification of a soliton in a multistage, superradiant cascade: here, we demonstrate the generation of few-femtosecond extreme-ultraviolet pulses, whose duration we measure by autocorrelation. Overall, we achieve pulses four times shorter, and with a higher peak power, than in the standard high-gain harmonic generation mode and we prove that the pulse duration matches the Fourier transform limit of the spectral intensity distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme dimensions — how big (or small) can tailed phages be?

Bacteriophages (phages), that is, viruses that infect bacteria, represent an extremely diverse, yet under-characterized, group of viruses. Although most known phages harbour genomes that are shorter than 200 kb packaged into capsids with a diameter under 100 Å, more and more ‘extremely large’ phages are being discovered. Early reports of phages with genomes larger than 200 kb defined them as ‘jumbo phages’1. Phylogenetic analysis of these jumbo phages revealed that they form distinct and cohesive groups with multiple independent origins. This suggested that jumbo phages are not merely mistakes or aberrations of smaller phages that got too big, but that large genome size is generally a stable trait. In fact, a larger genome can be advantageous; almost all jumbo phages encode their own specific transcription factors, at least some parts of the replication machinery, and many also have their own tRNA genes, which enables increased independence from their host. Here, large genomes also provide more flexibility in terms of transcription strategy; smaller phage genomes tend to have a strict modular genome structure to increase efficiency, whereas jumbo phage genomes may be much less organized in the absence of a strong selection pressure to maintain a compact genome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficiency-optimized relativistic plasma harmonics for extreme fields

Bright harmonic radiation from relativistically oscillating laser plasmas offers a direct route for generating extreme electromagnetic fields. Theory predicts that under optimized conditions, the plasma medium can support strong spatiotemporal compression of laser energy in a coherent harmonic focus (CHF), delivering intensity boosts many orders of magnitude greater than the incident driving laser pulse. Although diffraction-limited performance (spatial compression) and attosecond phase locking (temporal compression) have been demonstrated experimentally, efficient coupling of relativistically intense laser pulse energy into the emitted harmonic cone has not been realized so far. Here we demonstrate that this highly nonlinear interaction can be tailored to deliver the maximum conversion efficiencies predicted from simulations. By fine-tuning the temporal profile of the driving laser on sub-picosecond (<10 −12 s) timescales, energies >9 mJ between the 12th and 47th harmonics are observed. These results are in agreement with the theoretically expected efficiency dependence on harmonic order, verifying that optimal conditions have been achieved in the generation process. This is the important final element required to achieve the expected intensity boosts from a CHF in experiments. Although obtaining spatiotemporal compression and optimal efficiency simultaneously remains challenging, the path to realizing extreme optical field strengths approaching the critical field of quantum electrodynamics (the Schwinger limit at >10 16 V cm −1 or >10 29 W cm −2 ) is now open, permitting all-optical studies of the quantum vacuum and new frontiers for intense attosecond science.

High-harmonic generation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Streamflow in the United States: Characteristics, trends, regime shifts, and extremes

Long-term streamflow observations contain essential information for understanding hydrological changes and managing water resources. A continental-scale dataset or analysis of temporal streamflow change is still lacking across hydrologic gauges in the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we compiled 70 years of streamflow records from 1951 to 2021 at ~ 8000 hydrologic stations across the CONUS and characterized temporal trends, regime shifts, and extreme events using a Bayesian time series analysis algorithm. We found that the occurrences of sudden streamflow changes (e.g., regime shifts and extreme events) have been increasing with time across the CONUS. In addition, we derived 181 streamflow indicators that are valuable for hydrological and biological applications, such as the duration and frequency of high or low streamflow events. The Mississippi River Basin, especially the middle and lower parts, was a hot spot of high-frequency high-flow events. Overall, we anticipate the dataset generated here offers valuable information for understanding and quantifying changes in water resources across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The influence of microbial colonization on inflammatory versus pro-healing trajectories in combat extremity wounds

A combination of improved body armor, medical transportation, and treatment has led to the increased survival of warfighters from combat extremity injuries predominantly caused by blasts in modern conflicts. Despite advances, a high rate of complications such as wound infections, wound failure, amputations, and a decreased quality of life exist. To study the molecular underpinnings of wound failure, wound tissue biopsies from combat extremity injuries had RNA extracted and sequenced. Wounds were classified by colonization (colonized vs. non-colonized) and outcome (healed vs. failed) status. Differences in gene expression were investigated between timepoints at a gene level, and longitudinally by multi-gene networks, inferred proportions of immune cells, and expression of healing-related functions. Differences between wound outcomes in colonized wounds were more apparent than in non-colonized wounds. Colonized/healed wounds appeared able to mount an adaptive immune response to infection and progress beyond the inflammatory stage of healing, while colonized/failed wounds did not. Although, both colonized and non-colonized failed wounds showed increasing inferred immune and inflammatory programs, non-colonized/failed wounds progressed beyond the inflammatory stage, suggesting different mechanisms of failure dependent on colonization status. Overall, these data reveal gene expression profile differences in healing wounds that may be utilized to improve clinical treatment paradigms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California

Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California. More than three-quarters of extreme-impact wildfires—defined as the top 20 largest, most destructive, or deadliest events on record—originated within 1 km from the wildland-urban interface. The deadliest and most destructive wildfires—90% of which were human-caused—primarily occurred in the fall, while the largest wildfires—56% of which were human-caused—mostly took place in the summer. By integrating human activity and climate change impacts, we provide a holistic understanding of human-centric wildfire risk, crucial for policy development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The miniJPAS survey: A search for extreme emission-line galaxies

Context. Galaxies with extreme emission lines (EELGs) may play a key role in the evolution of the Universe, as well as in our understanding of the star formation process itself. For this reason an accurate determination of their spatial density and fundamental properties in different epochs of the Universe will constitute a unique perspective towards a comprehensive picture of the interplay between star formation and mass assembly in galaxies. In addition to this, EELGs are also interesting in order to explain the reionization of the Universe, since their interstellar medium (ISM) could be leaking ionizing photons, and thus they could be low z, analogous of extreme galaxies at high z . Aims. This paper presents a method to obtain a census of EELGs over a large area of the sky by detecting galaxies with rest-frame equivalent widths ≥300 Å in the emission lines [O II]λλ3727,3729Å, [O III]λ5007Å, and Hα. For this, we aim to use the J-PAS survey, which will image an area of ≈8000 deg 2 with 56 narrow band filters in the optical. As a pilot study, we present a methodology designed to select EELGs on the miniJPAS images, which use the same filter dataset as J-PAS, and thus will be exportable to this larger survey. Methods. We make use of the miniJPAS survey data, conceived as a proof of concept of J-PAS, and covering an area of ≈1 deg 2 . Objects were detected in the r SDSS images and selected by imposing a condition on the flux in a given narrow-band J-PAS filter with respect to the contiguous ones, which is analogous to requiring an observed equivalent width larger than 300 Å in a certain emission line within the filter bandwidth. The selected sources were then classified as galaxies or quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) after a comparison of their miniJPAS fluxes with those of a spectral database of objects known to present strong emission lines. This comparison also provided a redshift for each source, which turned out to be consistent with the spectroscopic redshifts when available (|Δz/(1 + z spec )| ≤ 0.01). Results. The selected candidates were found to show a compact appearance in the optical images, some of them even being classified as point-like sources according to their stellarity index. After discarding sources classified as QSOs, a total of 17 sources turned out to exhibit EW 0 ≥ 300 Å in at least one emission line, thus constituting our final list of EELGs. Our counts are fairly consistent with those of other samples of EELGs in the literature, although there are some differences, which were expected due to biases resulting from different selection criteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems’ Extreme Weather Resilience

We present scalable stochastic optimization approaches for improving power systems’ resilience to extreme weather events. We consider both proactive redispatch and transmission line hardening as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather, resulting in large-scale stochastic linear programs (LPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). We solve these stochastic optimization problems with progressive hedging (PH), a parallel, scenario-based decomposition algorithm. Our computational experiments indicate that our proposed method for enhancing power system resilience can provide high-quality solutions efficiently. With up to 128 scenarios on a 2,000-bus network, the operations (redispatch) and investment (hardening) resilience problems can be solved in approximately 6 min and 2 h of wall-clock time, respectively. Additionally, we solve the investment problems with up to 512 scenarios, demonstrating that the approach scales very well with the number of scenarios. Moreover, the method produces high quality solutions that result in statistically significant reductions in expected load shed. Our proposed approach can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or a combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗