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NASA NTRS2017

Using High Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery to Map Forest Burn Severity Across Spatial Scales in a Pine Barrens Ecosystem

As a primary disturbance agent, fire significantly influences local processes and services of forest ecosystems. Although a variety of remote sensing based approaches have been developed and applied to Landsat mission imagery to infer burn severity at 30 m spatial resolution, forest burn severity have still been seldom assessed at fine spatial scales (less than or equal to 5 m) from very-high-resolution (VHR) data. We assessed a 432 ha forest fire that occurred in April 2012 on Long Island, New York, within the Pine Barrens region, a unique but imperiled fire-dependent ecosystem in the northeastern United States. The mapping of forest burn severity was explored here at fine spatial scales, for the first time using remotely sensed spectral indices and a set of Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) fraction images from bi-temporal - pre- and post-fire event - WorldView-2 (WV-2) imagery at 2 m spatial resolution. We first evaluated our approach using 1 m by 1 m validation points at the sub-crown scale per severity class (i.e. unburned, low, moderate, and high severity) from the post-fire 0.10 m color aerial ortho-photos; then, we validated the burn severity mapping of geo-referenced dominant tree crowns (crown scale) and 15 m by 15 m fixed-area plots (inter-crown scale) with the post-fire 0.10 m aerial ortho-photos and measured crown information of twenty forest inventory plots. Our approach can accurately assess forest burn severity at the sub-crown (overall accuracy is 84% with a Kappa value of 0.77), crown (overall accuracy is 82% with a Kappa value of 0.76), and inter-crown scales (89% of the variation in estimated burn severity ratings (i.e. Geo-Composite Burn Index (CBI)). This work highlights that forest burn severity mapping from VHR data can capture heterogeneous fire patterns at fine spatial scales over the large spatial extents. This is important since most ecological processes associated with fire effects vary at the less than 30 m scale and VHR approaches could significantly advance our ability to characterize fire effects on forest ecosystems.

Meng, Ran↗

NASA NTRS1991

Minimum fuel coplanar aeroassisted orbital transfer using collocation and nonlinear programming

The fuel optimal control problem arising in coplanar orbital transfer employing aeroassisted technology is addressed. The mission involves the transfer from high energy orbit (HEO) to low energy orbit (LEO) without plane change. The basic approach here is to employ a combination of propulsive maneuvers in space and aerodynamic maneuvers in the atmosphere. The basic sequence of events for the coplanar aeroassisted HEO to LEO orbit transfer consists of three phases. In the first phase, the transfer begins with a deorbit impulse at HEO which injects the vehicle into a elliptic transfer orbit with perigee inside the atmosphere. In the second phase, the vehicle is optimally controlled by lift and drag modulation to satisfy heating constraints and to exit the atmosphere with the desired flight path angle and velocity so that the apogee of the exit orbit is the altitude of the desired LEO. Finally, the second impulse is required to circularize the orbit at LEO. The performance index is maximum final mass. Simulation results show that the coplanar aerocapture is quite different from the case where orbital plane changes are made inside the atmosphere. In the latter case, the vehicle has to penetrate deeper into the atmosphere to perform the desired orbital plane change. For the coplanar case, the vehicle needs only to penetrate the atmosphere deep enough to reduce the exit velocity so the vehicle can be captured at the desired LEO. The peak heating rates are lower and the entry corridor is wider. From the thermal protection point of view, the coplanar transfer may be desirable. Parametric studies also show the maximum peak heating rates and the entry corridor width are functions of maximum lift coefficient. The problem is solved using a direct optimization technique which uses piecewise polynomial representation for the states and controls and collocation to represent the differential equations. This converts the optimal control problem into a nonlinear programming problem which is solved numerically by using a modified version of NPSOL. Solutions were obtained for the described problem for cases with and without heating constraints. The method appears to be more robust than other optimization methods. In addition, the method can handle complex dynamical constraints.

Shi, Yun Yuan↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Console Log Keeping Made Easier - Tools and Techniques for Improving Quality of Flight Controller Activity Logs

At the Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) for International Space Station (ISS), each flight controller maintains detailed logs of activities and communications at their console position. These logs are critical for accurately controlling flight in real-time as well as providing a historical record and troubleshooting tool. This paper describes logging methods and electronic formats used at the POIC and provides food for thought on their strengths and limitations, plus proposes some innovative extensions. It also describes an inexpensive PC-based scheme for capturing and/or transcribing audio clips from communications consoles. Flight control activity (e.g. interpreting computer displays, entering data/issuing electronic commands, and communicating with others) can become extremely intense. It's essential to document it well, but the effort to do so may conflict with actual activity. This can be more than just annoying, as what's in the logs (or just as importantly not in them) often feeds back directly into the quality of future operations, whether short-term or long-term. In earlier programs, such as Spacelab, log keeping was done on paper, often using position-specific shorthand, and the other reader was at the mercy of the writer's penmanship. Today, user-friendly software solves the legibility problem and can automate date/time entry, but some content may take longer to finish due to individual typing speed and less use of symbols. File layout can be used to great advantage in making types of information easy to find, and creating searchable master logs for a given position is very easy and a real lifesaver in reconstructing events or researching a given topic. We'll examine log formats from several console position, and the types of information that are included and (just as importantly) excluded. We'll also look at when a summary or synopsis is effective, and when extensive detail is needed.

Scott, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey-, (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the 2 weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling isopycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the cuphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey: (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward; and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18 C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the two weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling iscpycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the euphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy Dennis J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2005

Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling. The GLM has a robust design that benefits and improves upon its strong heritage of NASA-developed LEO predecessors, the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). GLM will have a substantially larger number of pixels within the focal plane, two lens systems, and multiple Real-Time Event Processors REPS for on-board event detection and data compression to provide continuous observations of the Americas and adjacent oceans.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Summary of NASA and USAF Hypergolic Propellant Related Spills and Fires

Several unintentional hypergolic fluid related spills, fires, and explosions from the Apollo Program, the Space Shuttle Program, the Titan Program, and a few others have occurred over the past several decades. Spill sites include the following government facilities: Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Johnson Space Center (JSC), White Sands Test Facility (WSTF), Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), Little Rock AFB, and McConnell AFB. Until now, the only method of capturing the lessons learned from these incidents has been "word of mouth" or by studying each individual incident report. The root causes and consequences of the incidents vary drastically; however, certain "themes" can be deduced and utilized for future hypergolic propellant handling. Some of those common "themes" are summarized below: (1) Improper configuration control and internal or external human performance shaping factors can lead to being falsely comfortable with a system (2) Communication breakdown can escalate an incident to a level where injuries occur and/or hardware is damaged (3) Improper propulsion system and ground support system designs can destine a system for failure (4) Improper training of technicians, engineers, and safety personnel can put lives in danger (5) Improper PPE, spill protection, and staging of fire extinguishing equipment can result in unnecessary injuries or hardware damage if an incident occurs (6) Improper procedural oversight, development, and adherence to the procedure can be detrimental and quickly lead to an undesirable incident (7) Improper materials cleanliness or compatibility and chemical reactivity can result in fires or explosions (8) Improper established "back-out" and/or emergency safing procedures can escalate an event The items listed above are only a short list of the issues that should be recognized prior to handling hypergolic fluids or processing vehicles containing hypergolic propellants. The summary of incidents in this report is intended to cover many more issues than those listed above.

Nufer, Brian M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Improved UAV-Based Fog Collector for Local-Scale Aerobiological Sampling

The use of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) to passively collect fog for microbiological analysis is being investigated at NASA Ames, contributing to our understanding of the dynamics and limits of the biosphere. Current improvements to a preliminary payload design include physically modifying the mesh of the passive impactor collection unit (PICU) to increase fog-capture efficiency and a quick- mounting system to improve sample turnaround and contamination control. Increasing the water-capture efficiency of the PICU involved changing the surface roughness of the polypropylene mesh by abrasive sanding. Four scale models of the PICU were created, with three of those models sanded with 80-, 150-, and 240-grit sand paper for a minimum of thirty seconds on each side. Each mesh was individually tested in a fog-simulation chamber to measure collection efficiency. Tests showed that sanding the mesh will increase the water-capture efficiency by at least 3-fold for the 150- and 240-grit. Next steps are to determine the scaling laws and minimum amount of exposure time as a function of the fog density, to acquire enough microorganisms for analysis; a light-weight ground module for the PICU has been developed to allow rapid, easy field testing. Developing a mounting system that will ensure sterile deployment, as well as prompt changes of PICUs, for collection of fog water, utilized computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for the UAV to ensure that the location of the impactors will not be contaminated by particulates in the UAV downwash. The original design allowed the impactors to remain within sterile packaging until mounted on the UAV but did not address the concerns of contamination from aerodynamic ground effects and particulate lofting during takeoff. Design for a raised launch pad would allow for the sterile PICU to be attached to UAV and launched from outside the region of projected particulate lofting. California coastal sites have been scouted for appropriate testing locations. The improvements to the PICU design and operations will allow for multiple sampling points within a single fog event. The returned fog samples will undergo ion chromatography, qPCR, ATP quantification, and other tests to characterize microbial species and relevant biochemistry.

Wong, Amber↗

NASA NTRS2005

Visible-Near Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Data of Explosion Craters

In a continuing study to capture a realistic terrain applicable to studies of cratering processes and landing hazards on Mars, we have obtained new high resolution visible-near infrared images of several explosion craters at the Nevada Test Site. We used the Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to obtain images in 224 spectral bands from 0.4-2.5 microns [1]. The main craters that were imaged were Sedan, Scooter, Schooner, Buggy, and Danny Boy [2]. The 390 m diameter Sedan crater, located on Yucca Flat, is the largest and freshest explosion crater on Earth that was formed under conditions similar to hypervelocity impact cratering. As such, it is effectively pristine, having been formed in 1962 as a result of the detonation of a 104 kiloton thermonuclear device, buried at the appropriate equivalent depth of burst required to make a "simple" crater [2]. Sedan was formed in alluvium of mixed lithology [3] and subsequently studied using a variety of field-based methods. Nearby secondary craters were also formed at the time and were also imaged by AVIRIS. Adjacent to Sedan and also in alluvium is Scooter, about 90 m in diameter and formed by a high-explosive event. Schooner (240 m) and Danny Boy (80 m, Fig. 1) craters were also important targets for AVIRIS as they were excavated in hard welded tuff and basaltic andesite, respectively [3, 4]. This variation in targets will allow the study of ejecta patterns, compositional modifications due to the explosions, and the role of craters as subsurface probes.

Farr, T. G.↗

NASA NTRS2015

[Redesign of the Spacesuit Long Life Battery and the Personal Life Support System Battery]

This fall I was working on two different projects that culminated into a redesign of the spacesuit LLB (long life battery). I also did some work on the PLSS (personal life support system) battery with EC. My first project was redlining the work instruction for completing DPAs (destructive physical analysis) on battery cells in the department. The purpose of this document is to create a standard process and ensure that the data in the same way no matter who carries out the analysis. I observed three DPAs, conducted one with help, and conducted two on my own all while taking notes on the procedure. These notes were used to write the final work instruction that will become is the department standard. My second project continued the work of the summer co-op before me. I was testing aluminum heat sinks for their ability to provide good thermal conduction and structural support during a thermal runaway event. The heat sinks were designed by the summer intern but there was not much time for testing before he left. We ran tests with a heater on the bottom of a trigger cell to try to drive thermal runaway and ensure that it will not propagate to adjacent cells. We also ran heat-to-vent tests in an oven to see if the assembly provided structural support and prevented sidewall rupture during thermal runaway. These tests were carried out at ESTA (energy systems test area) and are providing very promising results that safe, high performing (greater than 180 Wh/kg) designs are possible. My main project was a redesign of the LLB battery. Another summer intern did some testing and concluded that there was no simple fix to mitigate thermal runaway propagation hazards in the current design. The only option was a clean sheet redesign of the battery. I was given a volume and ideal energy density and the rest of the design was up to me. First, I created new heat sink banks in Creo using the information gathered in the metal heat sink tests from the summer intern. After this, I made capture plates to hold the cells in place and I worked on nickel bussings for the electrical connections between the cells. Finally, I designed the test box enclosure that included sections for flame arresting materials. The battery brick design, which is the heart of the battery, promises to become the first for a manned spacecraft application to achieve greater than 180 Wh/kg. My work in redlining the DPA work instructions will also be used in selecting the cells for the battery. We had a few options of cells that would provide the necessary power output and needed to make a choice. We repeatedly charged and discharged cells for around a month until they went through 100 lifecycles. The plan is to compare the DPA results on fresh and cycled cells from each manufacturer to see if cycling introduces any differences. After the complete LLB design was approved, the parts were ordered and testing should begin the first week of December. Some of my side projects included working on the CAD data for the PLSS with EC and attending the NASA Aerospace Battery Workshop in Huntsville. I was also a member of the Tours and Lectures Committee for the USRA and Pathways interns. I coordinated Apollo Evening and was on the committee for touring KSC and seeing an Atlas 5 launch. I really enjoyed my time at JSC and I would like to continue working for NASA or another aerospace company in the future. I have worked other internships prior to this, but I think the heavy research and development focus is the best fit for me. I originally thought I would need to go to grad school to work in an environment like this, but I now see it is possible with a bachelor’s degree and hard work. I would like to go into the workforce and maybe continue my education with night classes.

Scharf, Stephanie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proof-of-Concept for a Long-Term Health Metric to Quantify End of Mission Health Status in Astronauts

NASA has long used Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. For spaceflight medical risk, the Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a significant step towards robustly quantifying the risk to crew health during exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively characterize and assess risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the entire Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. To fill this gap, the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project aims to perform risk characterization for the CHP system by assessing performance risk in addition to medical risk. This effort also includes quantifying Long-Term Health (LTH) risk in addition to in-mission risk outcomes within the CHP-PRA results. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. A proof-of-concept LTH risk metric is based on medical condition end-state, as defined by the Evidence Library, capturing the spaceflight specific medical impacts persisting into post-flight[1]. Condition outcomes in the Evidence Library progress through three Clinical Phases (CP): the diagnostic phase (CP1), the treatment/convalescent phase (CP2), and the end-state phase (CP3) which represents the detrimental effects of the condition after the crew member has recovered to the maximal extent. Each CP has an associated Task Impairment (TI), defined as the degree of crew incapacity due to experiencing the condition, and is quantified with a 0-1 range. Conditions with an associated CP3 (e.g. Sepsis, Traumatic Hypovolemic Shock, Sudden Cardiac Arrest, etc.) typically have serious consequences that can cause an astronaut to be fully or partially debilitated throughout the remainder of the mission. Consequently, the Cumulative CP3 TI End-of-Mission Health Status Metric is developed by CHP-PRA to quantify the cumulative effects of all conditions which progressed to the CP3 state throughout the entirety of the mission. Hence, this End-of-Mission Health Status Metric attempts to serve as an indicator of an astronaut’s health state at the time of landing. The severity of the lingering effects of in-mission medical events are dependent on mission activities and the level of available in-mission medical care. This allows the associated cumulative TI metric to be used in comparison with the crew’s end of mission health status for different levels of in-mission resources. This presentation provides the strategy for using CP3 as an LTH metric component, as well as a proof-of-concept demonstration of LTH risk characterization using this component.

long term health↗

NASA NTRS2009

Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts

Long-term projections of the space debris environment indicate that even drastic measures, such as an immediate, complete halt of launch and release activities, will not result in a stable environment of man-made space objects. Collision events between already existing space hardware will within a few decades start to dominate the debris population, and result in a net increase of the space debris population, also in size regimes which may cause further catastrophic collisions. Such a collisional cascading will ultimately lead to a run-away situation ("Kessler syndrome"), with no further possibility of human intervention. The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has been investigating the status and the stability of the space debris environment in several studies by first looking into space traffic management possibilities and then investigating means of mitigating the creation of space debris. In an ongoing activity, an IAA study group looks at ways of active space debris environment remediation. In contrast to the former mitigation study, the current activity concentrates on the active removal of small and large objects, such as defunct spacecraft, orbital stages, and mission-related objects, which serve as a latent mass reservoir that fuels initial catastrophic collisions and later collisional cascading. The paper will outline different mass removal concepts, e.g. based on directed energy, tethers (momentum exchange or electrodynamic), aerodynamic drag augmentation, solar sails, auxiliary propulsion units, retarding surfaces, or on-orbit capture. Apart from physical principles of the proposed concepts, their applicability to different orbital regimes, and their effectiveness concerning mass removal efficiency will be analyzed. The IAA activity on space debris environment remediation is a truly international project which involves more than 23 contributing authors from 9 different nations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Water Impact Prediction Tool for Recoverable Rockets

Reusing components from a rocket launch can be cost saving. NASA's space shuttle system has reusable components that return to the Earth and impact the ocean. A primary example is the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) that descends on parachutes to the Earth after separation and impacts the ocean. Water impact generates significant structural loads that can damage the booster, so it is important to study this event in detail in the design of the recovery system. Some recent examples of damage due to water impact include the Ares I-X First Stage deformation as seen in Figure 1 and the loss of the SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage.To ensure that a component can be recovered or that the design of the recovery system is adequate, an adequate set of structural loads is necessary for use in failure assessments. However, this task is difficult since there are many conditions that affect how a component impacts the water and the resulting structural loading that a component sees. These conditions include the angle of impact with respect to the water, the horizontal and vertical velocities, the rotation rate, the wave height and speed, and many others. There have been attempts to simulate water impact. One approach is to analyze water impact using explicit finite element techniques such as those employed by the LS-Dyna tool [1]. Though very detailed, this approach is time consuming and would not be suitable for running Monte Carlo or optimization analyses. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-body simulation tool that runs quickly and that captures the environments a component might see. The simulation incorporates the air and water interaction with the component, the component dynamics (i.e. modes and mode shapes), any applicable parachutes and lines, the interaction of winds and gusts, and the wave height and speed. It is capable of quickly conducting Monte Carlo studies to better capture the environments and genetic algorithm optimizations to reproduce a flight.

Rooker, William↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (~12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Hamlin, Teri↗