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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FEA-Based Failure Analysis of Post-Buckled Composite Multi-Hat Stiffened Panel Under Static Compression

The aerospace industry uses composite multi-hat stiffened panels for skins because of their high strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios. However, laminated composites with initial flaws are susceptible to delamination under buckling loads. The goal is to ensure damage initiation occurs past the buckled state, only stable damage progression at loads below the ultimate compressive load, and debonding failure past the ultimate compressive load. This approach reduces weight and addresses a potential design review for future aircraft repairs. The need exists to better understand damage initiation and growth mechanisms in composite structures while assisting in the design, analysis, and sustainment methods. Teflon inserts simulate damage defects during manufacturing, while barely visible impact helps capture human error during manufacturing. This work shows the interaction between the skin-stringer and ply-ply separations at the post-buckled state for both defect events using Abaqus Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT). The initial configuration for the Teflon case was to leave the Teflon region unbonded, and the initial impact damage region approximation came from the experimental data and was considered the initial configuration. When compared against the experimental data produced through the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP), the present model captured damage transition from skin-hat to ply1-ply2. The model validations were within ~5% of the experimental data.

composite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
NASA NTRS1991

Segmented Ge detector rejection of internal beta activity produced by neutron irradiation

Future Ge spectrometers flown in space to observe cosmic gamma-ray sources will incorporate segmented detectors to reduce the background from radioactivity produced by energetic particle reactions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of a segmented Ge detector in rejecting background events due to the beta decay of internal radioactivity, a laboratory experiment has been carried out in which radioactivity was produced in the detector by neutron irradiation. A Cf-252 source of neutrons was used to produce, by neutron capture on Ge-74 (36.5 percent of natural Ge) in the detector itself, Ge-75 (t sub 1/2 = 82.78 min), which decays by beta emission with a maximum electron kinetic energy of 1188 keV. By requiring that an ionizing event deposit energy in two or more of the five segments of the detector, each about 1-cm thick, the beta particles, which have a range of about 1-mm, are rejected, while most external gamma rays incident on the detector are counted. Analysis of this experiment indicates that over 85 percent of the beta events from the decay of Ge-75 are rejected, which is in good agreement with Monte Carlo calculations.

Varnell, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of NASA's High-Resolution Global Composition Simulations: Understanding a Pollution Event in the Chesapeake Bay During the Summer 2017 OWLETS Campaign

Recirculation of pollutants due to a bay breeze effect is a key meteorological mechanism impacting air quality near urban coastal areas, but regional and global chemical transport models have historically struggled to capture this phenomenon. We present a case study of a high ozone (O3) episode observed over the Chesapeake Bay during the NASA Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) in summer 2017. OWLETS included a complementary suite of ground-based and airborne observations, with which we characterize the meteorological and chemical context of this event and develop a framework to evaluate model performance. Two publicly-available NASA global high-resolution coupled chemistry-meteorology models (CCMMs) are investigated: GEOS-CF and MERRA2-GMI. The GEOS-CF R squared value for comparisons between the NASA Sherpa C-23 aircraft measurements to the GEOS-CF resulted in good agreement (R squared: 0.67) on July 19th and fair agreement (R squared: 0.55) for July 20th. Compared to surface observations, we find the GEOS-CF product with a 25 x 25 km squared grid box, at an hourly (R squared: 0.62 to 0.87) and 15-minute (R squared: 0.64 to 0.87) interval for six regional sites outperforms the hourly nominally 50 x 50 km squared gridded MERRA2-GMI (R squared: 0.53 to 0.76) for four of the six sites, suggesting it is better capable of simulating complex chemical and meteorological features associated with ozone transport within the Chesapeake Bay airshed. When the GEOS-CF product was compared to the TOLNet LiDAR observations at both NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), the median differences at LaRC were -6 to 8% and at CBBT were ± 7% between 400 to 2000 m ASL. This indicates that, for this case study, the GEOS-CF is able to simulate surface level ozone diurnal cycles and vertical ozone profiles at small scales between the surface level and 2000 m ASL. Evaluating global chemical model simulations at sub-regional scales will help air quality scientists understand the complex processes occurring at small spatial and temporal scales within complex surface terrain changes, simulating nighttime chemistry and deposition, and the potential to use global chemical transport simulations in support of regional and sub-regional field campaigns.

NASA Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Stu↗
NASA NTRS1990

Segmented Ge detectors and mechanical coolers for future gamma-ray astronomy instruments

The effectiveness of a segmented Ge detector in rejecting background events due to the beta decay of internal radioactivity is demonstrated by a laboratory experiment in which radioactivity was produced in the detector by neutron irradiation. A Cf-252 source of neutrons was used to produce, by neutron capture on Ge-74 in the detector itself, Ge-75, which decays by beta emission with a maximum energy of 1188 keV. Simultaneous spectra are taken of the activity in the detector under two conditions: a free spectrum in which all events in the detector are accumulated, and a gated spectrum in which events are accumulated only if they deposit energy in two or more segments. A comparison of the spectra shows that over 85 percent of the beta events are rejected, which is in good agreement with predictions.

Varnell, Larry S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Time Resolution Modelled and Measured New Particle Formation Rates During the 2023 Pittsburgh, PA Campaign

Particle size distributions are used to calculate nucleation rates during new particle formation (NPF). However, the low time resolution and poor sensitivity of instruments deployed to observe particle size distributions can lead to inaccurate estimates of nucleation rates. We calculated nucleation rates in Pittsburgh, PA from particle size distributions measured with the new high time resolution Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM) and from gas precursor concentrations measured with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer. The CPC FARM nucleation rates were calculated by examining the appearance rate of particles in the smallest size bin at 1.6 nm. The nucleation rate of 1.6 nm determined every second resulted in positive and negative rates, indicating the influence of inhomogeneous mixing and advection of precursor gases and clusters. These effects are not currently considered when estimating nucleation rates from measurements. The nucleation rates from the CPC FARM were compared to the nucleation rates determined from a transient acid‐base reaction model using measured sulfuric acid concentration, strong base concentrations, and CPC detection efficiencies. The transient form of the model allowed the advection of heterogeneously mixed precursors to influence the nucleation rate. Good agreement between particle and gas‐based nucleation rates is observed during sulfuric acid‐driven NPF events. This study demonstrates that high time resolution measurements of short‐lived and rapidly formed particles are needed to accurately capture nucleation rates, which are likely influenced by advection of nucleation precursors and clusters in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas.

Cheng, D. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance of a coarsely pixelated LAPPD photosensor for the SoLID gas Cherenkov detectors

The SoLID spectrometer's gas Cherenkov counters require photosensors that operate in a high luminosity and high background environment. The reference design features arrays of 9 or 16 tiled multi-anode photomultipliers (MaPMTs), distributed across 32 sectors, to serve the light-gas and heavy-gas Cherenkov counters, respectively. To assess the viability of a pixelated INCOM Large Area Picosecond Photodetector (LAPPD TM ) as an alternative photosensor to replace MaPMT arrays in either detector, we evaluated its performance under realistic SoLID running conditions in Hall C at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab). The results of this test confirmed that the coarse-pixelated (2.5 × 2.5 cm 2 pixel size) LAPPD is capable of handling the total projected signal and background rates of the three pillar SoLID experiments. The tested photosensor detected Cherenkov signals with the capability of separating single-electron events from pair production events while rejecting background. Although the design was not aimed at ring-imaging Cherenkov detectors, Cherenkov disk images were captured in two different gas radiators. Through a direct comparison with a GEANT4 simulation, we confirmed the experimental performance of the LAPPD.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the impact of the fuel injection strategy on the combustion and performance characteristics of a heavy-duty GCI engine

Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) is a promising strategy to achieve high thermal efficiency and low emissions with limited modifications to the conventional diesel engine hardware. It is a partially premixed concept, which derives its superiority from higher volatility and longer ignition delay of gasoline-like fuels combined with higher compression ratio typical of diesel engines. Here, the present study investigates the combustion process in a GCI engine operating with different injection strategies using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Simulations are carried out on a single cylinder of a multi cylinder heavy-duty compression ignition engine, which operates at a compression ratio of 17:1 and an engine speed of 1038 rev/min. Two different injection strategies viz., late injection (LI), and early pilot injection (EP) are investigated to understand their impact on combustion and performance of the engine. Renormalized group (RNG) k-ε model is used to describe in-cylinder turbulence and KH RT model is used to simulate the fuel spray breakup. The developed CFD methodology is validated against relevant experimental data under a wide range of operating conditions for each injection strategy. The developed CFD methodology was found to capture the engine combustion behavior quite well. Based on the validated CFD model, the differences in the progress of combustion event for the two injection strategies is highlighted. It was found that a larger pilot fuel mass fraction results in a steeper rise in the initial heat release rate which in turn influences the transition to mixing controlled combustion. In line with the experimental data, the study showed that the late pilot injection strategy with three injection pulses, results in higher performance compared to the other conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cybersecurity Event Simulation Tool and Platform

Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems (ICSs) have replaced analog control systems in nuclear power plants raising cybersecurity concerns. To study and understand the cybersecurity risks of nuclear power plants both high fidelity models of the plant physics and controllers must be created, and a framework to test and evaluate cyber security events must be established. A testing and evaluation framework of cybersecurity events consists of a method of interfering with control systems, a simulation of the plant network, and a network packet capture and recording tool. Sandia National Labs (SNL) in collaboration with the University of New Mexico’s Institute for Space and Nuclear Power Studies (UNM-ISNPS) is developing such a cybersecurity testing framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Observations of Pronounced Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Warming and Implications for Runoff Production

Field measurements of shallow borehole temperatures in firn across the northern Greenland ice sheet are collected during May 2013. Sites first measured in 19521955 are revisited, showing long-term trends in firn temperature. Results indicate a pattern of substantial firn warming (up to +5.7C) at midlevel elevations (1400-2500 m) and little temperature change at high elevations (2500 m). We find that latent heat transport into the firn due to meltwater percolation drives the observed warming. Modeling shows that heat is stored at depth for several years, and energy delivered from consecutive melt events accumulates in the firn. The observed warming is likely not yet in equilibrium with recent melt production rates but captures the progression of sites in the percolation facies toward net runoff production.

ice sheet↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Multi-Flight Common Routes for Traffic Flow Management

This paper presents an approach for creating common weather avoidance reroutes for multiple flights and the associated benefits analysis, which is an extension of the single flight advisories generated using the Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept. These multiple flight advisories are implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS) Constraint Evaluation and Notification Tool (NASCENT), a nation-wide simulation environment to generate time- and fuel-saving alternate routes for flights during severe weather events. These single flight advisories are clustered together in the same Center by considering parameters such as a common return capture fix. The clustering helps propose routes called, Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR), that avoid weather and other airspace constraints, and save time and fuel. It is expected that these routes would also provide lower workload for traffic managers and controllers since a common route is found for several flights, and presumably the route clearances would be easier and faster. This study was based on 30-days in 2014 and 2015 each, which had most delays attributed to convective weather. The results indicate that many opportunities exist where individual flight routes can be clustered to fly along a common route to save a significant amount of time and fuel, and potentially reducing the amount of coordination needed.

weather uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Predictive Maintenance for NuScale’s Condensate and Feedwater System Using EMRALD

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is used to model of NuScale’s feedwater and condenser system to capture component degradation and repairing process. To model the reliability of the components, a three-stage failure rate is used contrary to a constant rate leading to component failure. Results from EMRALD will be used to compare different maintenance strategies to reduce system downtime. The outcome of the project will assist in maximizing remaining useful life of the overall system and increasing the availability and revenue of the plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The MU2E Experiment at FERMILAB: R&D, Design and Status

The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab 1) will search for coherent, neutrinoless conversion of negative muons into electrons in the field of an aluminum nucleus, µ - + N (A, Z) → e - + N (A, Z). This is an example of Charged Lepton Flavour Violation (CLFV) never observed experimentally. The dynamics of such a process is well modelled by a two-body decay, resulting in a mono-energetic electron with an energy slightly below the muon rest mass (~104.967 MeV). If no events are observed in three years of running, Mu2e will set an upper limit on the ratio between conversion and capture rate R µe ≤ 6 × 10 -17 (@ 90% C.L.). This will improve the current limit of a factor of 10 4 over previous experiments. The experiment complements and extends the current/planned searches (µ → eγdecay at MEG , mu3e) as well as the direct searches for new physics at the LHC. Indeed, such CLFV searches in the muon sector probe new physics at a mass scale inaccessible with direct searches at either present or planned high-energy colliders. To detect the muon conversion process, a very intense pulsed beam of negative muons is produced by means of a S-shape Superconducting Solenoid Magnet System that is organized into three subsystems: the Production Solenoid, the Transport Solenoid and the Detector Solenoid. The beam is stopped at 10 GHz on an Aluminum target inside the Detector Solenoid. The Mu2e detectors, also installed inside the Detector Solenoid, are a high-precision tracker made on ~20000 straw tubes, and a calorimeter composed of ~1500 pure CsI crystals organized in two disks and readout by two large area UV-extended Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs). The Detector Solenoid region is surrounded by a Cosmic Ray Veto based on scintillators readout by SiPMs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discriminating Uranium Isotopes Based on Fission Signatures Induced by Delayed Neutrons

The use of active interrogation to induce delayed neutron emission is a well-established technique for the characterization of special nuclear materials. Delayed neutrons have isotope-characteristic spectral and temporal signatures, which provide the basis for isotope identification. However, in bulk materials that contain an appreciable fissile (e.g., 235 U or 233 U) fraction, such as highly enriched uranium (HEU), delayed neutrons have a high probability of inducing additional fissions. As a result, the overall delayed neutron signature consists of two distinct components: the “primary” delayed neutrons (emitted directly by fission fragments) and the “secondary prompt” fission neutrons produced in fission induced by primary delayed neutrons. These prompt products differ from “primary” delayed neutrons both in their energy spectra and in the presence of coincident radiation released by the parent fission event. The presence and relative quantity of prompt products from delayed fission depend on the cross section of the material in the energy range of delayed neutrons, which may differ significantly between isotopes, thus providing an exploitable means for isotope differentiation. Here, we demonstrate two experimental approaches for discriminating between 235 U and 238 U isotopes based on the measurement of delayed neutron-induced fission products. First, HEU and depleted uranium objects are differentiated through the detection of high-energy prompt neutrons from delayed fission using both recoil-based organic liquid scintillators and thermalization spectra from a custom-built capture-gated composite detector. Secondly, coincident radiation measurements are used as the basis for discrimination by comparing the overall rates and time evolution of fission events when delayed neutrons are present.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomistic Insights into the Reactive Diffusion of CO 2 in Guanidine-Based Facilitated Transport Membranes

The pressing need to address climate change has led to significant advancements in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture technologies. Notably, facilitated transport membranes (FTMs) are distinguished by their exceptional selectivity and permeance, attributed to their reversible chemical reactions with CO 2 . This study, for the first time, sheds light on the reactive diffusion mechanism of CO 2 in FTMs, utilizing 1,1,3,3-tetramethylguanidine (TMG) as a mobile carrier. Specifically, state-ofthe- art molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, augmented by a reparameterized reactive force field (ReaxFF) capable of describing atomistic interactions and reaction pathways, are conducted to investigate the transport of CO 2 in TMG. The analysis of mean squared displacement (MSD) and diffusion coefficients reveals a clear hierarchy in the mobility of reaction components. Our findings highlight a unique hopping diffusion mechanism between bicarbonate ions and TMG molecules, increasing the diffusivity of reacted CO 2 by 1.4 times. The hopping events observed not only enhance our understanding of molecular mobility but also offer a means to boost the performance of FTMs in CO 2 capture applications. Overall, this research lays the groundwork for the future design of FTMs with optimal carrier properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗