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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

supply↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗
NASA NTRS2020

AERoBOND Project Summary

Under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, the Adhesive-Free Bonding of Complex Composites (AERoBOND) project investigated off-stoichiometric epoxy polymers for fast, reliable assembly of epoxy matrix composite structures. The project goal was to demonstrate feasibility of the AERoBOND joining method by demonstrating mechanical properties greater than 80% of conventional co-cured materials while reducing structure weight by 1%. The project consisted of three convergent research areas: material and process development, systems analysis, and material and process modeling. Material and process development was the largest component of AERoBOND with approximately 6 FTE and 1WYE of support to formulate and characterize new resins, prepare carbon fiber prepregs, fabricate laminates, measure mechanical properties, analyze failure results, and select material and process improvements. The systems analysis activity estimated the potential reduction in part count and aircraft weight by comparing models of composite wing boxes with no fasteners (co-cured structure), fasteners in major joints (co-cured stringers), and fasteners in all joints. The materials and process modeling activity included a molecular model of the AERoBOND materials system to predict mechanical properties of resins with offset stoichiometry and a process model to predict the effect of resin formulation and processing conditions on the extent of mixing and degree of cure in a finished joint. As the number of airline passenger trips doubles in the next 20 years (IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2019), the increased demand for new commercial aircraft is now the single greatest technical challenge to the airframe manufacturing industry. To meet efficiency requirements, new aircraft must be fabricated primarily from high performance structural composites, but manufacturing processes are inherently slow with the largest bottleneck attributed to assembly and installation of fasteners (NASA/TM–2019-220428). Manufactures of commercial transport aircraft are compelled to install more than 100,000 redundant fasteners into bonded joints to prevent failures due to unpredictable weak bonds. In structural adhesive bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making it susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Currently, bond strength assessment is only possible through destructive testing (i.e., breaking the joint). For these reasons, regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded, primary-structures to alleviate concerns with bond performance. The AERoBOND process enables reflow of matrix resin during assembly to eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface, thereby eliminating the dependence of mechanical performance on interfacial adhesion. The AERoBOND joint is equivalent to the interlaminar region obtained during a co-cure process, so joint performance depends on the cohesive properties of the matrix resin. Conventional co-cured structures, although too costly and complex for large-scale manufacturing, are trusted by manufacturers and regulators, and are certified for flight with few or no redundant fasteners.Systems analysis performed on a composite wing model at the scale of a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft indicated that >20,000 redundant fasteners per wing could be eliminated by implementing the AERoBOND joining method. A total weight reduction of 15% was predicted in a wing box by eliminating fasteners and thinning components that must no longer support localized fastener loads and accommodate fastener dimensions. Interlaminar shear fracture toughness measured by the end-notched flexure test was greater than 1 kJ/m2 (nearly 140% of the co-cured benchmark property), which is greatly in excess of the project goals for mechanical properties. Testing was planned to measure interlaminar tensile fracture toughness as well as interlaminar tensile and shear strengths using the same AERoBOND configuration, but was delayed due to closure of LaRC facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The AERoBOND process model is partially validated and available for experimental use. It allows the user to input AERoBOND process parameters such as material composition, laminate configuration, and cure cycle to predict the final cure state of the AERoBOND joint. A preliminary, multi-scale material model was developed to predict AERoBOND joint mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) based on the cure state of the joint provided by the process model. The timing for transition of this technology within NASA is excellent as NASA initiates new enduring projects to address composites manufacturing rate challenges. AERoBOND technology is well suited to AAVP/AATT objectives for rapid manufacturing of a composite wing. A minimal effort (1 FTE/$15k procurement/0 WYE) is proposed in FY21 to continue a minor mechanical testing effort and maintain a SAA with ASX composites to develop commercial quality prepreg material. An RFI with the composites industry is suggested to quantify the technology gap between the current TRL and the TRL needed for transition to industry. A moderate effort [3-4 FTE/$150k/1 WYE (~$115k)] is proposed in FY22 for the “high rate composites manufacturing” project currently in planning. The partnership with ASX Composites will be expanded to produce material for sub-element/element-scale “panel-off” activities. Industry partnerships with airframe manufacturers is an expected component to explore damage tolerance and environmental stability. Further development of multi-scale modeling tools (process model, meso-scale model, and molecular model) is planned to enhance and deliver tools for rapid manufacturing infusion.

Frank Louis Palmieri↗
NASA NTRS1975

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment /LACIE/ - An assessment after one year of operation

A Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) has been undertaken jointly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the Department of Commerce and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prove out an economically important application of remote sensing from space. The first phase of the Experiment, which focused upon determinations of wheat area in the U.S. Great Plains and upon the development and testing of yield models, is now nearing completion. The system implemented to handle and analyze the Landsat and meteorological data has generally worked well and met operational goals. A very preliminary assessment of results to date indicates that the accuracy goals of the experiment can be met.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Dynamic analysis using superelements for a large helicopter model

Using superelements (substructures), modal and frequency response analysis was performed for a large model of the Advanced Attack Helicopter developed for the U.S. Army. Whiffletree concept was employed so that the residual structure along with the various superelements could be represented as beam-like structures for economical and accurate dynamic analysis. A very large DMAP alter to the rigid format was developed so that the modal analysis, the frequency response, and the strain energy in each component could be computed in the same run.

Patel, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A methodology for long range prediction of air transportation

The paper describes the methodology for long-time projection of aircraft fuel requirements. A new concept of social and economic factors for future aviation industry which provides an estimate of predicted fuel usage is presented; it includes air traffic forecasts and lead times for producing new engines and aircraft types. An air transportation model is then developed in terms of an abstracted set of variables which represent the entire aircraft industry on a macroscale. This model was evaluated by testing the required output variables from a model based on historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Systems Analysis Of Advanced Coal-Based Power Plants

Report presents appraisal of integrated coal-gasification/fuel-cell power plants. Based on study comparing fuel-cell technologies with each other and with coal-based alternatives and recommends most promising ones for research and development. Evaluates capital cost, cost of electricity, fuel consumption, and conformance with environmental standards. Analyzes sensitivity of cost of electricity to changes in fuel cost, to economic assumptions, and to level of technology. Recommends further evaluation of integrated coal-gasification/fuel-cell integrated coal-gasification/combined-cycle, and pulverized-coal-fired plants. Concludes with appendixes detailing plant-performance models, subsystem-performance parameters, performance goals, cost bases, plant-cost data sheets, and plant sensitivity to fuel-cell performance.

Ferrall, Joseph F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Spray combustion stability

The central purpose of this project is the improvement of liquid-fueled rocket motor design technology in order to assist the establishment of economical commercial access to space through the development of engines with enhanced performance and reliability. Specific research effort is focused on spray physics and associated combustion instability phenomena. Results concerning high pressure droplet gasification model, droplet turbulent dispersion model, and spray atomization model will contribute to the development of new computational tools for design of stable liquid propellant rocket engines.

Liang, Pak-Yan↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Emergence and Impact of Intelligent Machines

The following issues are addressed in this essay: a) Models of Technology Trends: A discussion of why nanotechnology and related advanced technologies are inevitable. The underlying technologies are deeply integrated into our society and are advancing on many diverse fronts; and b) The Economic Imperatives of the Law of Accelerating Returns: The exponential advance of technology, including the accelerating miniaturization of technology, is driven by economic imperative, and, in turn, has a pervasive impact on the economy.

Kurzweil, Raymond↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing and Modeling for Improving Operational Aquatic Plant Management

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California’s water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stennis Space Center Environmental Geographic Information System

As NASA's lead center for rocket propulsion testing, the John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) monitors and assesses the off-site impacts of such testing through its Environmental Office (SSC-EO) using acoustical models and ancillary data. The SSC-EO has developed a geographical database, called the SSC Environmental Geographic Information System (SSC-EGIS), that covers an eight-county area bordering the NASA facility. Through the SSC-EGIS, the Enivronmental Office inventories, assesses, and manages the nearly 139,000 acres that comprise Stennis Space Center and its surrounding acoustical buffer zone. The SSC-EGIS contains in-house data as well as a wide range of data obtained from outside sources, including private agencies and local, county, state, and U.S. government agencies. The database comprises cadastral/geodetic, hydrology, infrastructure, geo-political, physical geography, and socio-economic vector and raster layers. The imagery contained in the database is varied, including low-resolution imagery, such as Landsat TM and SPOT; high-resolution imagery, such as IKONOS and AVIRIS; and aerial photographs. The SSC-EGIS has been an integral part of several major projects and the model upon which similar EGIS's will be developed for other NASA facilities. The Corps of Engineers utilized the SSC-EGIS in a plan to establish wetland mitigation sites within the SSC buffer zone. Mississippi State University employed the SSC-EGIS in a preliminary study to evaluate public access points within the buffer zone. The SSC-EO has also expressly used the SSC-EGIS to assess noise pollution modeling, land management/wetland mitigation assessment, environmental hazards mapping, and protected areas mapping for archaeological sites and for threatened and endangered species habitats. The SSC-EO has several active and planned projects that will also make use of the SSC-EGIS during this and the coming fiscal year.

Lovely, Janette↗
NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing impact on corridor selection and placement

Computer-aided corridor selection techniques, utilizing digitized data bases of socio-economic, census, and cadastral data, and developed for highway corridor routing are considered. Land resource data generated from various remote sensing data sources were successfully merged with the ancillary data files of a corridor selection model and prototype highway corridors were designed using the combined data set. Remote sensing derived information considered useful for highway corridor location, special considerations in geometric correction of remote sensing data to facilitate merging it with ancillary data files, and special interface requirements are briefly discussed.

Thomson, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar heating and cooling technical data and systems analysis

The accomplishments of a project to study solar heating and air conditioning are outlined. Presentation materials (data packages, slides, charts, and visual aids) were developed. Bibliographies and source materials on materials and coatings, solar water heaters, systems analysis computer models, solar collectors and solar projects were developed. Detailed MIRADS computer formats for primary data parameters were developed and updated. The following data were included: climatic, architectural, topography, heating and cooling equipment, thermal loads, and economics. Data sources in each of these areas were identified as well as solar radiation data stations and instruments.

Christensen, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A Nomographic Methodology for Use in Performance Trade-Off Studies of Parabolic Dish Solar Power Modules

A simple graphical method was developed to undertake technical design trade-off studies for individual parabolic dish models comprising a two-axis tracking parabolic dish with a cavity receiver and power conversion assembly at the focal point. The results of these technical studies are then used in performing the techno-economic analyses required for determining appropriate subsystem sizing. Selected graphs that characterize the performance of subsystems within the module were arranged in the form of a nomogram that would enable an investigator to carry out several design trade-off studies. Key performance parameters encompassed in the nomogram include receiver losses, intercept factor, engine rating, and engine efficiency. Design and operation parameters such as concentrator size, receiver type (open or windowed aperture), receiver aperture size, operating temperature of the receiver and engine, engine partial load characteristics, concentrator slope error, and the type of reflector surface, are also included in the graphical solution. Cost considerations are not included.

Selcuk, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Measuring earth orientation with the Global Positioning System

A globally distributed network of high-precision receivers which obtain data from the full Global Positioning System (GPS) configuration of 18 or more satellites may soon become an efficient and economical method for the rapid determination of short-term variations in earth orientation. A covariance analysis has been performed to evaluate the errors associated with GPS monitoring of earth orientation. Earth orientation parameters were modeled either as constants over observing windows of various lengths, or as stochastic process-noise variables. The sensitivity of earth orientation estimates to systematic errors in selected model parameters was also examined. GPS measurements appear to be highly competitive with those from other techniques, and have the potential to generate nearly continuous centimeter-level earth orientation information to aid both spacecraft navigation and the study of high-frequency earth orientation-related processes.

Freedman, Adam P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Longitudinal Mode Aeroengine Combustion Instability: Model and Experiment

Combustion instabilities in gas turbine engines are most frequently encountered during the late phases of engine development, at which point they are difficult and expensive to fix. The ability to replicate an engine-traceable combustion instability in a laboratory-scale experiment offers the opportunity to economically diagnose the problem more completely (to determine the root cause), and to investigate solutions to the problem, such as active control. The development and validation of active combustion instability control requires that the casual dynamic processes be reproduced in experimental test facilities which can be used as a test bed for control system evaluation. This paper discusses the process through which a laboratory-scale experiment and be designed to replicate an instability observed in a developmental engine. The scaling process used physically-based analyses to preserve the relevant geometric, acoustic, and thermo-fluid features, ensuring that results achieved in the single-nozzle experiment will be scalable to the engine.

Cohen, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Improvements to a method for the geometrically nonlinear analysis of compressively loaded stiffened composite panels

The NLPAN computer code uses a finite-strip approach to the analysis of thin-walled prismatic composite structures such as stiffened panels. The code can model in-plane axial loading, transverse pressure loading, and constant through-the-thickness thermal loading, and can account for shape imperfections. The NLPAN code represents an attempt to extend the buckling analysis of the VIPASA computer code into the geometrically nonlinear regime. Buckling mode shapes generated using VIPASA are used in NLPAN as global functions for representing displacements in the nonlinear regime. While the NLPAN analysis is approximate in nature, it is computationally economical in comparison with finite-element analysis, and is thus suitable for use in preliminary design and design optimization. A comprehensive description of the theoretical approach of NLPAN is provided. A discussion of some operational considerations for the NLPAN code is included. NLPAN is applied to several test problems in order to demonstrate new program capabilities, and to assess the accuracy of the code in modeling various types of loading and response. User instructions for the NLPAN computer program are provided, including a detailed description of the input requirements and example input files for two stiffened-panel configurations.

Stoll, Frederick↗