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At least 577 records · Page 32

Depth-resolved carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in 522 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs worldwide

Lakes, ponds, and reservoirs (hereafter: “lakes”) are important sources of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from lakes are regulated in part by in-lake processes, including the production and storage of gases in the lower parts of the water column (bottom waters). However, while substantial efforts have been made to improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from lakes, limited data on gas concentrations along depth profiles have prevented the incorporation of bottom-water processes in global emission estimates. Here, we present GHG-depths: the largest existing dataset of depth-profile CO 2 and CH 4 measurements worldwide, including 522 lakes across 38 countries and all seven continents. These data include contributions from 45 research teams and 56 published studies, totaling 2558 discrete sampling events. As global change continues to alter biogeochemical cycling in lakes, these data can help improve mechanistic models to better predict greenhouse gas production and emission from lakes worldwide.

Rabaey, Joseph S. [University of Minnesota, Duluth↗

Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions among patients in the DRC enrolled from 2017 to 2018

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detecting histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) and HRP3 are widely used throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to diagnose Plasmodium falciparum malaria. However, multiple SSA countries have reported pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 ( pfhrp2/3 ) gene deletions. Blood samples (n = 1109) collected from patients with P. falciparum infection from six health facilities throughout the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from March 2017 to January 2018 were evaluated for pfhrp 2/3 deletions. Samples were assayed for HRP2, pan- Plasmodium LDH (pLDH) and aldolase (pAldolase) antigens by bead-based multiplex antigen assay. Samples with low HRP2 concentration compared to pLDH and pAldolase antigens were selected for further pfhrp2/3 genotyping PCRs. The majority of blood samples (93.3%, 1035/1109) had high concentrations of the HRP2 antigen. Single deletions of pfhrp2 were identified in 0.27% (3/1109) of screened samples, with one sample from each of the Kapolowe, Mikalayi, and Rutshuru study sites. A pfhrp3 single deletion (0.09%, 1/1109) was found in the Kapolowe site. Dual pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 deletions were not observed. Due to, the low numbers of pfhrp2 deletions and the sporadic locations of these deletions, the use of HRP2-based RDTs appears to still be appropriate for these locations in DRC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Megavolt bremsstrahlung measurements from linear induction accelerators demonstrate possible use as a FLASH radiotherapy source to reduce acute toxicity

Abstract Recent studies indicate better efficacy and healthy tissue sparing with high dose-rate FLASH radiotherapy (FLASH-RT) cancer treatment. This technique delivers a prompt high radiation dose rather than fractional doses over time. While some suggest thresholds of > 40 Gy s −1 with a maximal effect at > 100 Gy s −1 , accumulated evidence shows that instantaneous dose-rate and irradiation time are critical. Mechanisms are still debated, but toxicity is minimized while inducing apoptosis in malignant tissue. Delivery technologies to date show that a capability gap exists with clinic scale, broad area, deep penetrating, high dose rate systems. Based on these trends, if FLASH-RT is adopted, it may become a dominant approach except in the least technologically advanced countries. The linear induction accelerator (LIA) developed for high instantaneous and high average dose-rate, species independent charged particle acceleration, has yet to be considered for this application. We review the status of LIA technology, explore the physics of bremsstrahlung-converter-target interactions and our work on stabilizing the electron beam. While the gradient of the LIA is low, we present our preliminary work to improve the gradient by an order of magnitude, presenting a point design for a multibeam FLASH-RT system using a single accelerator for application to conformal FLASH-RT.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Structure of the glucosyltransferase domain of TcdA in complex with RhoA provides insights into substrate recognition

Clostridioides difficile is one of the most common causes of antibiotic-associated diarrhea in developed countries. As key virulence factors of C. difficile, toxin A (TcdA) and toxin B (TcdB) act by glucosylating and inactivating Rho and Ras family small GTPases in host cells, which leads to actin cytoskeleton disruption, cell rounding, and ultimately cell death. Here we present the co-crystal structure of the glucosyltransferase domain (GTD) of TcdA in complex with its substrate human RhoA at 2.60-angstrom resolution. This structure reveals that TcdA GTD grips RhoA mainly through its switch I and switch II regions, which is complemented by interactions involving RhoA’s pre-switch I region. Comprehensive structural comparisons between the TcdA GTD–RhoA complex and the structures of TcdB GTD in complex with Cdc42 and R-Ras reveal both the conserved and divergent features of these two toxins in terms of substrate recognition. Taken together, these findings establish the structural basis for TcdA recognition of small GTPases and advance our understanding of the substrates selectivity of large clostridial toxins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Full genome sequence for the African swine fever virus outbreak in the Dominican Republic in 1980

African swine fever is a lethal disease of domestic pigs, geographically expanding as a pandemic, that is affecting countries across Eurasia and severely damaging their swine production industry. After more than 40 years of being absent in the Western hemisphere, in 2020 ASF reappeared in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The recent outbreak strain in the Dominican Republic has been identified as a genotype II ASFV a derivative of the ASF strain circulating in Asia and Europe. However, to date no full-length genome sequence from either the 1978–1980 Here we report the complete genome sequence of an African swine fever virus (ASFV) (DR-1980) that was previously isolated from blood collected in 1980 from the Dominican Republic at the end of the last outbreak, before culling of all swine on the island of Hispaniola and stored in the Plum Island Animal Disease Center ASFV repository. A contig representing the full-length genome (183,687 base pairs) was de novo assembled into a single contig using both Nanopore and Illumina sequences. DR-1980 was determined to belong to genotype I and, as determined by full genome comparison, a close relative to the sequenced Sardinia viruses that were causing outbreaks at this time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lyophilization of ASFV vaccine candidate ASFV-G-ΔI177L offers long term stability

Abstract For over a century African swine fever (ASF) has been causing outbreaks leading to devastating losses for the swine industry. The current pandemic of ASF has shown no signs of stopping and continues to spread causing outbreaks in additional countries. Currently control relies mostly on culling infected farms, and strict biosecurity procedures. Recently a vaccine, ASFV-G-ΔI177L was approved for use in Vietnam. In this study we evaluate the long-term stability of lyophilized ASFV-G-ΔI177L. Understanding the stability of different formulations of vaccines is information necessary for deployment of vaccines to ASF outbreak areas, particularly those that do not have a reliable well established cold chain to ensure conservation of vaccine quality. In this report, we determined that ASFV-G-ΔI177L, when lyophilized under specific conditions, is stable for up to one year at 4 °C, with similar vaccine titers after storage. Next-generation sequencing analysis also determined that lyophilization and long-term storage under these conditions had no effect on the genome of ASFV as the genome remained genetically identical to the original non-lyophilized form.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Game theoretic modeling and optimization of competition and collaboration in dual channel electronic waste supply chains

The rapid growth of electronic waste (e-waste) presents critical challenges for sustainable resource recovery and environmental protection. This study develops a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model formulated as a hierarchical Stackelberg game, that integrates dynamic pricing and cost-sharing mechanisms to optimize both economic and environmental outcomes. The model explicitly captures strategic interactions between manufacturer-led and third-party recycling channels, accounting for consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. Numerical simulations conducted (implemented over a four-iteration horizon using a commercial optimization solver) show that, relative to the baseline equilibrium, manufacturer profit increases from 11.6 thousand USD to 37.9 thousand USD (+226.8%), total recycled volume rises from 7,848 to 7,942 units (+1.2%), and collector profit nearly doubles under cost-sharing, enabling more equitable profit distribution. Furthermore, scenario-based simulations across Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income economies, and emerging Asian industrial countries reveal that infrastructure quality, policy intensity, and labor costs critically shape recycling efficiency and profit allocation. These findings demonstrate that subsidies alone are insufficient to ensure system efficiency. Instead, coordinated strategies that integrate internal incentive alignment with context-sensitive policy support are required. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for designing resilient, efficient, and regionally adaptable e-waste management systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km 3 yr -1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most of these basins are in countries with the highest current extraction rates, including the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, India, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Furthermore, these groundwater-dependent basins will probably face increasing costs of groundwater and food production, suggesting important implications for global agricultural trade and a diminished role for groundwater in meeting global water demands during the twenty-first century.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Social–ecological benefits of land–sea planning at multiple scales in Mesoamerica

Deforestation impacts the ecosystem services provided by downstream coral reefs to coastal communities in multiple ways, such as through increased sedimentation and nutrification. However, connections between terrestrial and marine ecosystems are generally assessed at a single scale and from an ecological perspective alone, limiting our understanding of how watershed management affects the benefits accrued by coastal communities at different scales. Here we explore how ecological and societal benefits of watershed interventions (restoration, protection and sustainable agriculture) differ when considered regionally versus nationally in the Mesoamerican Reef region, by using linked land–sea ecosystem service models. Results from a regional approach prioritize implementing interventions in larger multinational watersheds, leading to neighbouring nations benefiting from increased sediment retention and healthy corals. For the national prioritization approach, selecting for smaller watersheds within individual countries resulted in more societal benefits, particularly increased coastal protection and nature-based tourism, at the cost of improved coral health for neighbouring nations. Finally, we demonstrate how planning at multiple scales across the region can improve ecosystem and societal benefits, resulting in win–win outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Schneider, Kate R.↗

A hidden demethylation pathway removes mercury from rice plants and mitigates mercury flux to food chains

Dietary exposure to methylmercury (MeHg) causes irreversible damage to human cognition and is mitigated by photolysis and microbial demethylation of MeHg. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) has been identified as a major dietary source of MeHg. However, it remains unknown what drives the process within plants for MeHg to make its way from soils to rice and the subsequent human dietary exposure to Hg. Here we report a hidden pathway of MeHg demethylation independent of light and microorganisms in rice plants. This natural pathway is driven by reactive oxygen species generated in vivo, rapidly transforming MeHg to inorganic Hg and then eliminating Hg from plants as gaseous Hg°. MeHg concentrations in rice grains would increase by 2.4- to 4.7-fold without this pathway, which equates to intelligence quotient losses of 0.01–0.51 points per newborn in major rice-consuming countries, corresponding to annual economic losses of US$30.7–84.2 billion globally. Importantly, this discovered pathway effectively removes Hg from human food webs, playing an important role in exposure mitigation and global Hg cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030

Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.

Schneider, Kate R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Washingto↗

Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems

Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease using plasma biomarkers adjusted to clinical probability

Abstract Recently approved anti-amyloid immunotherapies for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) require evidence of amyloid-β pathology from positron emission tomography (PET) or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) before initiating treatment. Blood-based biomarkers promise to reduce the need for PET or CSF testing; however, their interpretation at the individual level and the circumstances requiring confirmatory testing are poorly understood. Individual-level interpretation of diagnostic test results requires knowledge of disease prevalence in relation to clinical presentation (clinical pretest probability). Here, in a study of 6,896 individuals evaluated from 11 cohort studies from six countries, we determined the positive and negative predictive value of five plasma biomarkers for amyloid-β pathology in cognitively impaired individuals in relation to clinical pretest probability. We observed that p-tau217 could rule in amyloid-β pathology in individuals with probable AD dementia (positive predictive value above 95%). In mild cognitive impairment, p-tau217 interpretation depended on patient age. Negative p-tau217 results could rule out amyloid-β pathology in individuals with non-AD dementia syndromes (negative predictive value between 90% and 99%). Our findings provide a framework for the individual-level interpretation of plasma biomarkers, suggesting that p-tau217 combined with clinical phenotyping can identify patients where amyloid-β pathology can be ruled in or out without the need for PET or CSF confirmatory testing.

Cell Biology↗

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Concentrating solar thermal power in the U.S.: lessons from setbacks at Ivanpah, light for the future

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) exhibits promise as a source of firm electricity. The proposed termination of Ivanpah’s power purchase agreement hinders confidence in the country’s CSP future. This work highlights how the lack of thermal energy storage (TES) undermined the first-of-a-kind plant’s economics as California’s grid transformed. Then, possible futures of the Ivanpah facility are analyzed; results show retrofitting with state-of-the-art TES systems could provide better returns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗