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At least 577 records · Page 32

Examining the Trends in Financial Support Given to Science Teams for Data Analysis in Mission Proposals

Introduction: The goal of this summer internship research project was to analyze trends in financial support proposed for the science teams of planetary missions. The analysis focuses on the funding for Co-Investigators (Co-Is) to conduct research and/or data analysis needed to achieve the science objectives of the mission. The operational portion of the missions after launch (i.e., Phase E, including cruise and prime operations at the final destination) were examined since that is when the bulk of research is funded and conducted. The objectives of the project were to determine the average level of support for Co-Investigators, identify variation between mission competitions and over time, and determine the relationship between mission type and the amount of support requested. Methodology: This project was conducted using data from 90 proposals submitted to six mission competitions in the Discovery and New Frontiers programs. The level of support for Co-Is was determined by examining Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 4 (Science Analysis) for Phase E, which was further subdivided into cruise and prime operations. This data represents a proxy rather than the actual funding Co-Is receive to perform research and data analysis because not every dollar in WBS 4 is spent on this activity. Therefore, the proxy obtained in this research represents an overestimate of the funds allocated to Co-Is for research and data analysis. Findings: Analysis shows that on average a Co-I receives approximately four full years of support spread across the entirety of Phase E for science analysis. The variation among proposed missions is less than expected given the variety of factors that are expected to drive this metric (length of mission, mission type, etc.). Additionally, the level of requested support for Co-Is has been remarkably consistent across every variable considered (by competition, over time, by mission type) over the six competitions and nearly 20 years spanned by this project. This remains true for cruise, primary operations, and all of Phase E. Conclusions: A remarkable amount of science is accomplished by the science teams of planetary missions. However, a surprisingly small amount of funding is requested to support the science analysis driving this productivity, both in terms of absolute magnitude of funding and as a portion of total mission cost. This suggests improvements are needed to refine the estimates of Co-I support and/or that Co-Is rely on other funding sources to conduct their research. Better estimates can be determined by engaging directly with Co-Is and NASA centers to obtain data as well as finding other data sources. Additionally, NASA could consider mandating improved reporting of requested funding levels in mission competitions.

E Murray↗

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗

Systems Integration Processes for NASA's Crew Launch Vehicle

NASA's Exploration Initiative will require development of many new elements to constitute a robust system of systems. New launch vehicles are needed to place cargo and crew in stable low earth orbit. This paper examines the systems integration processes NASA is utilizing to ensure integration and control of propulsion and non-propulsion elements within NASA's Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). The objective of the CLV is to provide the transportation capabilities to meet the Constellation Program requirements for delivering a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) or other payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) in support of the lunar and Mars missions. The CLV must successfully provide the capability within cost and schedule with an acceptable risk approach. This paper will describe in detail the systems engineering management processes that will be applied to assure CLV Project success through complete and efficient technical integration. Discussion of specific processes for requirements development and verification, integrated design and analysis, integrated simulation and testing and the integration of reliability, maintainability and supportability (RMS) into the design will also be included. The CLV Project is broken logically into elements by the major hardware groupings, and associated management, system engineering, and integration functions. The processes to be described herein are designed to integrate within these CLV elements and among the other Constellation projects. Launch vehicle stack integration (CLV to CEV, and Ground and Flight Operations integration) throughout the life cycle, including integrated vehicle performance through orbital insertion, recovery of the first stage, and reentry of the upper stage will also be discussed. The processes for decomposing requirements to the Elements and ensuring that requirements have been correctly validated, decomposed, allocated, and that the verification requirements are properly defined to ensure that the system design meets requirements will be discussed.

Reuter, James L.↗

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption (Research Performance Final Report)

This is the research performance final report for the project entitled: Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption This project was able to achieve the DOE’s goals of developing new modeling tools to understand MDHD vehicle operation and adoption. The first modeling tool is a fleet-level techno-economic analysis model capable of estimating energy use and associated environmental and cost impacts for electrified and conventional vehicles of any MDHD vocation, using real-world cost and operations data, including approaches to optimizing schedules for charging and/or vehicle dispatch. The second modeling tool is a system-level, bottom-up, agent-based adoption model capable of generating geographically-resolved estimates of market projections for MDHD vehicles and charging infrastructure. These tools will be developed and published to serve dual purposes as analysis tools for researchers, and decision-support tools for decision makers within the MDHD system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7↗

On the application of under-decimated filter banks

Maximally decimated filter banks have been extensively studied in the past. A filter bank is said to be under-decimated if the number of channels is more than the decimation ratio in the subbands. A maximally decimated filter bank is well known for its application in subband coding. Another application of maximally decimated filter banks is in block filtering. Convolution through block filtering has the advantages that parallelism is increased and data are processed at a lower rate. However, the computational complexity is comparable to that of direct convolution. More recently, another type of filter bank convolver has been developed. In this scheme, the convolution is performed in the subbands. Quantization and bit allocation of subband signals are based on signal variance, as in subband coding. Consequently, for a fixed rate, the result of convolution is more accurate than is direct convolution. This type of filter bank convolver also enjoys the advantages of block filtering, parallelism, and a lower working rate. Nevertheless, like block filtering, there is no computational saving. In this article, under-decimated systems are introduced to solve the problem. The new system is decimated only by half the number of channels. Two types of filter banks can be used in the under-decimated system: the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) filter banks and the cosine modulated filter banks. They are well known for their low complexity. In both cases, the system is approximately alias free, and the overall response is equivalent to a tunable multilevel filter. Properties of the DFT filter banks and the cosine modulated filter banks can be exploited to simultaneously achieve parallelism, computational saving, and a lower working rate. Furthermore, for both systems, the implementation cost of the analysis or synthesis bank is comparable to that of one prototype filter plus some low-complexity modulation matrices. The individual analysis and synthesis filters have complex coefficients in the DFT filter banks but have real coefficients in the cosine modulated filter banks.

Lin, Y.-P.↗

Systems Integration Processes for NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

NASA's Exploration Initiative will require development of many new elements to constitute a robust system of systems. New launch vehicles are needed to place cargo and crew in stable Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This paper examines the systems integration processes NASA is utilizing to ensure integration and control of propulsion and nonpropulsion elements within NASA's Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), now known as the Ares I. The objective of the Ares I is to provide the transportation capabilities to meet the Constellation Program requirements for delivering a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) or other payload to LEO in support of the lunar and Mars missions. The Ares I must successfully provide this capability within cost and schedule, and with an acceptable risk approach. This paper will describe the systems engineering management processes that will be applied to assure Ares I Project success through complete and efficient technical integration. Discussion of technical review and management processes for requirements development and verification, integrated design and analysis, integrated simulation and testing, and the integration of reliability, maintainability and supportability (RMS) into the design will also be included. The Ares I Project is logically divided into elements by the major hardware groupings, and associated management, system engineering, and integration functions. The processes to be described herein are designed to integrate within these Ares I elements and among the other Constellation projects. Also discussed is launch vehicle stack integration (Ares I to CEV, and Ground and Flight Operations integration) throughout the life cycle, including integrated vehicle performance through orbital insertion, recovery of the first stage, and reentry of the upper stage. The processes for decomposing requirements to the elements and ensuring that requirements have been correctly validated, decomposed, and allocated, and that the verification requirements are properly defined to ensure that the system design meets requirements, will be discussed.

Taylor, James L.↗

A General Framework for Error-controlled Unstructured Scientific Data Compression

Data compression plays a key role in reducing storage and I/O costs. Traditional lossy methods primarily target data on rectilinear grids and cannot leverage the spatial coherence in unstructured mesh data, leading to suboptimal compression ratios. We present a multi-component, error-bounded compression framework designed to enhance the compression of floating-point unstructured mesh data, which is common in scientific applications. Our approach involves interpolating mesh data onto a rectilinear grid and then separately compressing the grid interpolation and the interpolation residuals. This method is general, independent of mesh types and typologies, and can be seamlessly integrated with existing lossy compressors for improved performance. We evaluated our framework across twelve variables from two synthetic datasets and two real-world simulation datasets. The results indicate that the multi-component framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art lossy compressors on unstructured data, achieving, on average, a 2.3 − 3.5× improvement in compression ratios, with error bounds ranging from 1 × 10 the −6 to 1×10−2. We further investigate impact of hyperparameters, such as grid spacing and error allocation, to deliver optimal compression ratios in diverse datasets.

Gong, Qian↗

Optimal Communication Topology Determination and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach to sensors selection and network topology determination for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes minimum estimation error, maximum airspace coverage, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time quality information to a monitoring observer. The developed algorithm uses multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and relaxations for in time implementation. It is implemented utilizing graph theoretic tools. The approach is validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace.

Distributed sensing↗

Valued peaks: Sustainable water allocation for small hydropower plants in an era of explicit ecological needs

Optimizing hydropower operations to balance economic profitability and support functioning ecosystem services is integral to river management policy. In this article, we propose a dynamic, constrained optimization framework for small hydropower plants (SHPs) to evaluate trade-offs between economic profitability and socio-ecological requirements. Specifically, we examine the balance between short-term losses in hydropower generation and the potential for compensatory benefits in the form of revenue from recreational ecosystem services, irrespective of the direct beneficiary. Our framework integrates a fish habitat model, a hydropower optimization model, and a recreational ecosystem service estimate to evaluate different environmental flow scenarios. The optimization process gives three outflow release scenarios, informed by previous streamflow realisations (dam inflow), and designed environmental flow constraints. The framework is applied and tested for the river Kuusinkijoki in North-eastern Finland, which is a habitat for migratory brown trout and grayling populations. We show that the revenue loss due to the environmental flow constraints arises through a reduction in revenue per generated energy unit and through a reduction in turbine efficiency. Additionally, the simulation results reveal that all the designed environmental flow constraints cannot be met simultaneously. Under the environmental flow scenario with both minimum flow and flow ramping rate constraints, the annual hydropower revenue decreases by 16.5 %. An annual increase of 8 % in recreational fishing visits offsets the revenue loss. In conclusion, the developed framework provides knowledge of the costs and benefits of hydropower environmental flow constraints and guides the prioritizing process of environmental measures.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Levack, Daniel J. H.↗

Communication-Avoiding and Memory-Constrained Sparse Matrix-Matrix Multiplication at Extreme Scale

Sparse matrix-matrix multiplication (SpGEMM) is a widely used kernel in various graph, scientific computing and machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we consider SpGEMMs performed on hundreds of thousands of processors generating trillions of nonzeros in the output matrix. Distributed SpGEMM at this extreme scale faces two key challenges: (1) high communication cost and (2) inadequate memory to generate the output. Furthermore, we address these challenges with an integrated communication-avoiding and memory-constrained SpGEMM algorithm that scales to 262,144 cores (more than 1 million hardware threads) and can multiply sparse matrices of any size as long as inputs and a fraction of output fit in the aggregated memory. As we go from 16,384 cores to 262,144 cores on a Cray XC40 supercomputer, the new SpGEMM algorithm runs 10x faster when multiplying large-scale protein-similarity matrices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Crop Modeling Application to Improve Irrigation Efficiency in Year-Round Vegetable Production in the Texas Winter Garden Region

Given a rising demand for quality assurance, rather than solely yield, supplemental irrigation plays an important role to ensure the viability and profitability of vegetable crops from unpredictable changes in weather. However, under drought conditions, agricultural irrigation is often given low priority for water allocation. This reduced water availability for agriculture calls for techniques with greater irrigation efficiency, that do not compromise crop quality and yield, and that provide economic benefit for producers. This study developed vegetable growing models for eight different vegetable crops (bush bean, green bean, cabbage, peppermint, spearmint, yellow straight neck squash, zucchini, and bell pepper) based on data from several years of field research. The ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields and water use efficiency (WUE) of all eight vegetables. The developed vegetable models were used to evaluate the effects of various irrigation regimes on vegetable growth and production in several locations in the Winter Garden Region of Texas, under variable weather conditions. Based on our simulation results from 960 scenarios, optimal irrigation amounts that produce high yield as well as reasonable economic profit to producers were determined for each vegetable crop. Overall, yields for all vegetables increased as irrigation amounts increased. However, irrigation amounts did not have a sustainable impact on vegetable yield at high irrigation treatments, and the WUEs of most vegetables were not significantly different among various irrigation regimes. When vegetable yields were compared with water cost, the rate decreased as irrigation amounts increased. Thus, producers will not receive economic benefits when vegetable irrigation water demand is too high.

Kim, Sumin↗

Optimal Communication Topology Construction and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach with no estimation feedback to sensors selection and communication network topology computation for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes maximum airspace coverage with minimal resources, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time high quality information to both stationary and mobile users. The developed algorithms use multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and are implemented using off-the-shelf computational tools. The algorithms are validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace and parameters of a notional wireless communication network.

Distributed sensing↗

Power Management in Regenerative Life Support Systems

Effective management of power can reduce the cost of launch and operation of regenerative life support systems. Variations in power may be quite severe and may manifest as surges or spikes, While the power plant may have some ability to deal with these variations, with batteries for example, over-capacity is expensive and does nothing to address the fundamental issue of excessive demand. Because the power unit must be sized to accommodate the largest demand, avoiding power spikes has the potential to reduce the required size of the power plant while at the same time increasing the dependability of the system. Scheduling of processors can help to reduce potential power spikes. However, not all power-consuming equipment is easily scheduled. Therefore, active power management is needed to further decrease the risk of surges or spikes. We investigate the use of a hierarchical scheme to actively manage power for a model of a regenerative life support system. Local level controllers individually determine subsystem power usage. A higher level controller monitors overall system power and detects surges or spikes. When a surge condition is detected, the higher level controller conducts an 'auction' and describes subsystem power usage to re-allocate power. The result is an overall reduction in total power during a power surge. The auction involves each subsystem making a 'bid' to buy or sell power based on local needs. However, this re-allocation cannot come at the expense of life support function. To this end, participation in the auction is restricted to those processes meeting certain tolerance constraints. These tolerances represent acceptable limits within which system processes can be operated. We present a simulation model and discuss some of our results.

Crawford, Sekou↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support

The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.

Reliability↗