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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Determining Spatial Scales of Soil Moisture—Cloud Coupling Pathways Using Semi-Idealized Simulations

The spatial scales of land-atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous, realistic soil moisture patterns are critical to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, these scales are poorly quantified. We use high-resolution numerical experiments to quantify the spatial scales for a selected day during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign in Oklahoma. A semi-idealized approach (removing background winds and surface topography while retaining the real-world data for other boundary conditions) enables examination of the local influence from the surface. Simulations that apply uniform surface, variable land cover with uniform soil moisture, and variable land cover with variable soil moisture are then compared. Land cover variations, especially water and urban surfaces, create two variance peaks in the surface sensible heat flux in the scales >10 km (meso-β) and <6 km (meso-γ). Both peaks are enhanced by the observation-based soil moisture distribution that has most of its variance in the meso-β scale. Atmospheric response in the meso-β scale is hydrostatic with weak vertical motion. The land cover variations induce secondary circulations in the scales of 2.5–6 km. The additional soil moisture variability intensifies extreme circulations over dry soil patches and sharp sensible heat flux gradients, slightly extending the characteristic scales to 2.5–9 km. While their areal coverage is small, soil moisture variations on such “hotspots” lead to substantially larger convective cloud structure and domain-mean rainfall, calling for a consideration of their non-linear effect in large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Airborne Radar Observations of Severe Hailstorms: Implications for Future Spaceborne Radar

A new dual-frequency (Ku and Ka band) nadir-pointing Doppler radar on the high-altitude NASA ER-2 aircraft, called the High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP), has collected data over severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Kansas during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The overarching motivation for this study is to understand the behavior of the dualwavelength airborne radar measurements in a global variety of thunderstorms and how these may relate to future spaceborne-radar measurements. HIWRAP is operated at frequencies that are similar to those of the precipitation radar on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Ku band) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement mission satellite's dual-frequency (Ku and Ka bands) precipitation radar. The aircraft measurements of strong hailstorms have been combined with ground-based polarimetric measurements to obtain a better understanding of the response of the Ku- and Ka-band radar to the vertical distribution of the hydrometeors, including hail. Data from two flight lines on 24 May 2011 are presented. Doppler velocities were approx. 39m/s2at 10.7-km altitude from the first flight line early on 24 May, and the lower value of approx. 25m/s on a second flight line later in the day. Vertical motions estimated using a fall speed estimate for large graupel and hail suggested that the first storm had an updraft that possibly exceeded 60m/s for the more intense part of the storm. This large updraft speed along with reports of 5-cm hail at the surface, reflectivities reaching 70 dBZ at S band in the storm cores, and hail signals from polarimetric data provide a highly challenging situation for spaceborne-radar measurements in intense convective systems. The Ku- and Ka-band reflectivities rarely exceed approx. 47 and approx. 37 dBZ, respectively, in these storms.

HIWRAP↗
NASA NTRS2000

Recent Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in the Tropics

This paper presents a detailed characterization of tropical tropospheric column ozone variability on time scales varying from a few days to a solar cycle. The study is based on more than 20 years (1979 to the present) of tropospheric column ozone time series derived from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method using total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data. Results indicate three distinct regions in the tropics with distinctly three different zonal characteristics related to seasonal, interannual and solar variabilities. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Tropospheric column ozone in the Atlantic region peaks at about the same time (September-October) from 20 N to 20 S. The amplitude of the annual cycle, however, varies from about 3 to 6 Dobson unit (DU) from north to south of the equator. In comparison, the annual cycle in both the eastern and western Pacific is generally week and the phase varies from peak values in March and April in the northern hemisphere to September and October in the southern hemisphere. The interannual pattern in the three regions are also very different. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi biennial oscillation in the tropospheric column ozone which is out of phase with the stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region caused by high pollution and high concentration of ozone producing precursors. The observed pattern, however, does not seem to be related to the interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead, it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events, there is anomalously low ozone in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific indicating the effects of convectively driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in tropospheric column ozone in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale forest fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Optimized Profile Retrievals of Aerosol Microphysical Properties from Simulated Spaceborne Multiwavelength Lidar

This work is an expanded study of one previously published onretrievals of aerosol microphysical properties from space-borne multiwavelengthlidarmeasurements. The earlier studiesand this one weredone in the framework of the NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems (now the Aerosol Clouds Convection and Precipitation) NASA mission. The focus here is on the capabilities of a simulated spacebornemultiwavelengthlidar system for retrieving aerosol complex refractive index (m = mr+ imi) and spectral single scattering albedo (SSA(λ)), although other bulk parameters such as effective (reff) radius and particle volume (V) and surface (S) concentrations are also studied. The novelty presented here is the use of recently published, case dependent optimized-constraints on the microphysical retrievals using three backscattering coefficients (β) at 355, 532 and 1064 nm and two extinction coefficients (α) at 355 and 532 nm, typically known as the stand-alone 3β+2α lidar inversion. Case-dependent optimized-constraints (CDOC) limit the ranges of refractive index, both real (mr) and imaginary (mi) parts, and of radii that are permitted in the retrievals. Such constraints are selected directly from the 3β+2α41measurements through an analysis of the relationship between spectral dependence of aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratios (LR) and the Ångström exponent of extinction. The analyses presented here for different sets ofsize distributions and refractive indices reveal that the direct determination of CDOCareonly feasible for cases where the uncertaintiesin the input optical data areless than 15 %.Forthe same simulated spacebornesystem and yield than in Whiteman et al., (2018), we demonstrated that the use of CDOC as essential for the retrievals of refractive index and also largely improved retrieval of bulk parameters. A discussion of the global representativeness of CDOC is presented using simulated lidar data from a 24-hour satellite track using GEOS model output to initialize the lidar simulator.We found that CDOCare representative of many aerosol mixtures in spite of some outliers (e.g. highly hydrated particles) associatedwith the assumptions of bimodal size distributions and of the same refractive index for fine and coarse modes. Moreover, sensitivity tests performed using synthetic data reveal that retrievals of imaginary refractive index (mi) and SSA are extremely sensitive to β(355).

NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Irrigation Impacts on Low-Level Jets over the Great Plains

Low-level jets (LLJs) over the Great Plains are well-known for their importance in transporting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and forming precipitation in the Central US. However, the impact of irrigation practice on LLJs is rarely studied. To understand the irrigation impact on the Great Plains LLJs, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed with and without an irrigation scheme. The simulated wind field is evaluated against the observed wind from Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The results show that adding irrigation improves the simulated wind, especially at lower altitudes below 800 hPa. Irrigation reduces the LLJ frequency over the Great Plains, mainly by reducing the intense LLJ frequency. The reduced LLJ frequency is caused by the irrigation-induced weakening of meridional wind. The favorable conditions for LLJs have been identified by examining the mechanism associated with LLJs: a ridge-like pattern with weak and calm synoptic-scale conditions in the mid-levels and a strong west-east temperature gradient at lower levels that promote meridional winds. Irrigation-induced cooling leads to a baroclinic pattern with high pressure at lower altitudes over the irrigation region and low pressure in the mid- and upper levels in the downstream region, resulting in a northerly component that hinders the formation of LLJs. Low-level surface cooling also decreases the west-east temperature gradient and hence weakens the thermal wind forcing. The irrigation-induced mid-level low and weaker west-east temperature gradient are responsible for the reduced meridional winds and the reduced LLJ frequencies.

Yang, Zhao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a Stochastic Mixing Scheme in the Deep Convective Gray Zone Using a Tropical Oceanic Deep Convection Case Study

Abstract A stochastic horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing scheme is evaluated in ensemble simulations of a tropical oceanic deep convection case using a horizontal grid spacing (Δ h ) of 3 km. The stochastic scheme, which perturbs the horizontal mixing coefficient according to a prescribed spatiotemporal autocorrelation scale, is found to generally increase mesoscale organization and convective intensity relative to a non‐stochastic control simulation. Perturbations applied at relatively short autocorrelation scales induce differences relative to the control that are more systematic than those from perturbations applied at relatively long scales that yield more variable outcomes. A simulation with mixing enhanced by a constant factor of 4 significantly increases mesoscale organization and convective intensity, while turning off horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing decreases both. Total rainfall is modulated by a combination of mesoscale organization, areal coverage of convection, and convective intensity. The stochastic simulations tend to behave more similarly to the constant enhanced mixing simulation owing to greater impacts from enhanced mixing as compared to reduced mixing. The impacts of stochastic mixing are robust, ascertained by comparing the stochastic mixing ensembles with a non‐stochastic mixing ensemble that has grid‐scale noise added to the initial thermodynamic field. Compared to radar observations and a higher resolution Δ h = 1 km simulation, stochastic mixing seemingly degrades the simulation performance. These results imply that stochastic mixing produces non‐negligible impacts on convective system properties and evolution but does not lead to an improved representation of convective cloud characteristics in the case studied here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large Aerosol Particles Favor Haze Conditions Through Limitations on Water Budget and Activation Kinetics

Experiments in the Pi Convection‐Cloud Chamber conducted by systematically changing the diameter of injected dry aerosol particles while holding the temperature difference constant demonstrate that dry diameter strongly influences the onset of haze‐dominated conditions. Two factors contribute: the system becomes water‐limited, resulting in reduction of supersaturation by growing aerosol particles to the activation diameter; and the activation process becomes kinetically limited. Dry aerosol diameter exerts a strong influence on activation time, with a power‐law exponent of 9/2. Kinetically limited activation occurs when the ratio of the activation and droplet residence times is greater than unity. The findings demonstrate that a haze‐dominated state, where cloud formation is suppressed, can be achieved not only with weak supersaturation forcing and high aerosol concentration but also with large, hygroscopic aerosol particles. These results have implications for cloud formation in polluted environments, fog development near the ocean, and hygroscopic cloud seeding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially distributed atmospheric boundary layer properties in Houston – A value-added observational dataset

Abstract In 2022, Houston, TX became a nexus for field campaigns aiming to further our understanding of the feedbacks between convective clouds, aerosols and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) properties. Houston’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay motivated the collection of spatially distributed observations to disentangle coastal and urban processes. This paper presents a value-added ABL dataset derived from observations collected by eight research teams over 46 days between 2 June - 18 September 2022. The dataset spans 14 sites distributed within a ~80-km radius around Houston. Measurements from three types of instruments are analyzed to objectively provide estimates of nine ABL parameters, both thermodynamic (potential temperature, and relative humidity profiles and thermodynamic ABL depth) and dynamic (horizontal wind speed and direction, mean vertical velocity, updraft and downdraft speed profiles, and dynamical ABL depth). Contextual information about cloud occurrence is also provided. The dataset is prepared on a uniform time-height grid of 1 h and 30 m resolution to facilitate its use as a benchmark for forthcoming numerical simulations and the fundamental study of atmospheric processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Investigation of the Role of Lateral Mixing in the Evolution of Nonprecipitating Cumulus. Part II: Dissolving Stage

A minimalistic analytical model allowing analysis of the dissolving stage of nonprecipitating convective clouds is proposed. The model takes into account two mechanisms: turbulent mixing with a dry environment and cloud volume settling. The temporal changes in the spatial structure of a cloud and in its immediate environment in the course of cloud dissolving are analyzed. The comparison of the effects of a temperature increase in the course of cloud descent and mixing with dry surrounding air shows that the descent is a dominating factor determining a decrease in the liquid water content (LWC), while mixing has a stronger effect on the cloud shape. Narrowing/broadening of clouds due to lateral mixing with dry air during cloud dissolving is determined by the potential evaporation parameter proportional to the ratio of the saturation deficit in the cloud environment to LWC. An equation for cloud dissolving time is obtained. After a cloud totally dissolves, it leaves behind an area with humidity exceeding that of the environment. The main parameter determining the dissolving time is the downdraft velocity. It should exceed 50 cm s -1 in order to provide reasonable dissolving time. The turbulent intensity, LWC, and humidity of the environment air also have an impact on dissolving time: the lower the LWC and the humidity of environment air, the faster cloud dissolving is. The simple solution presented in this paper can be useful for evaluation of cloud characteristics at the dissolving stage and can be included in procedures of parameterization of cloud cover formed by nonprecipitating or slightly precipitating cumulus clouds (Cu). Values of the environment humidity and temperature, LWC at cloud top, cloud width, vertical velocity of downdraft, and the turbulent coefficient should be parameters of this parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shallow Cumulus Properties as Captured by Adiabatic Fraction in High-Resolution LES Simulations

Abstract Shallow convective clouds are important players in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, and are abundant in the tropical and subtropical belts. They greatly contribute to the uncertainty in climate predictions due to their unresolved, complex processes that include coupling between the dynamics and microphysics. Analysis of cloud structure can be simplified by considering cloud motions as a combination of moist adiabatic motions like adiabatic updrafts and turbulent motions leading to deviation from adiabaticity. In this work, we study the sizes and occurrence of adiabatic regions in shallow cumulus clouds during their growth and mature stages, and use the adiabatic fraction (AF) as a continuous metric to describe cloud processes and properties from the core to the edge. To do so, we simulate isolated trade wind cumulus clouds of different sizes using the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) model in high resolution (10 m) with the Hebrew University spectral bin microphysics (SBM). The fine features in the clouds’ dynamics and microphysics, including small near-adiabatic volumes and a thin transition zone at the edge of the cloud (∼20–40 m in width), are captured. The AF is shown to be an efficient measure for analyzing cloud properties and key processes determining the droplet-size distribution formation and shape during the cloud evolution. Physical processes governing the properties of droplet size distributions at different cloud regions (e.g., core, edge) are analyzed in relation to AF. Significance Statement 1) This study investigates the evolution of cumulus clouds (Cu) using a 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. 2) The study improves the understanding of the mutual effects of adiabatic updrafts and lateral entrainment and mixing. 3) The study demonstrates the existence of an adiabatic core in nonprecipitating Cu. 4) Shapes of the droplet size distributions are closely related to the adiabatic fraction values. 5) Utilization of high resolution reveals the existence of physically significant small features in the cloud structure, such as a narrow cloud interface zone and small adiabatic volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in Ice Particle Velocity–Dimension Relationships Using MC3E Observations

Abstract Ice particle terminal fall velocity ( V t ) is fundamental for determining microphysical processes, yet remains extremely challenging to measure. Current theoretical best estimates of V t are functions of Reynolds number. The Reynolds number is related to the Best number, which is a function of ice particle mass, area ratio ( A r ), and maximum dimension ( D max ). These estimates are not conducive for use in most models since model parameterizations often take the form , where ( α , β ) depend on habit and D max . A previously developed framework is used to determine surfaces of equally plausible ( α , β ) coefficients whereby ice particle size/shape distributions are combined with V t best estimates to determine mass- ( V M ) or reflectivity-weighted ( V Z ) velocities that closely match parameterized V M ,SD or V Z ,SD calculated using the ( α , β ) coefficients using two approaches. The first uses surfaces of equally plausible ( a , b ) coefficients describing mass ( M )–dimension relationships (i.e., ) to calculate mass- or reflectivity-weighted velocity from size/shape distributions that are then used to determine ( α , β ) coefficients. The second investigates how uncertainties in A r , D max , and size distribution N ( D ) affect V M or V Z . For seven of nine flight legs flown on 20 and 23 May 2011 during the Mesoscale Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), uncertainty from natural parameter variability—namely, the variability in ice particle parameters in similar meteorological conditions—exceeds uncertainties arising from different A r assumptions or D max estimates. The combined uncertainty between A r , D max , and N ( D ) produced smaller variability in ( α , β ) compared to varying M ( D ), demonstrating M ( D ) must be accurately quantified for model fall velocities. Primary sources of uncertainty vary considerably depending on environmental conditions. Significance Statement Ice particle fall velocity is fundamental for numerous processes within clouds, and hence is a critical property that must be accurately represented in weather and climate models. Using aircraft observations of ice particle shapes and sizes obtained in clouds behind midlatitude thunderstorms, this work develops a new framework for estimating ice particle fall velocities and their uncertainty, including quantifying the importance of different uncertainty sources from cloud microphysics measurements. Natural parameter variability contributes the most uncertainty in ice particle fall velocity estimates, although other sources can also be important contributors to uncertainty in certain conditions. Additional work examining ice particle data is needed to further understand how dependent uncertainty in certain ice particle properties are to local environmental conditions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Cloud–Cloud Interactions in the Life Cycle of Shallow Cumulus Clouds

Some of the climate research puzzles relate to a limited understanding of the critical factors governing the life cycle of cumulus clouds. These factors force the initiation and the various mixing processes during cloud life cycles. To shed some light into these processes, we tracked the life cycle of thousands of individual shallow cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems field campaign in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Concurrent evolution of clouds is tracked and their respective neighboring clouds are examined. Results show that the clouds initially smaller than neighboring clouds can grow larger than the neighboring clouds by a factor of 2 within 20% of their lifetime. Two groups of the tracked clouds with growing and decaying neighboring clouds, respectively, show distinct characteristics in their life cycles. Clouds with growing neighboring clouds form above regions with larger surface heterogeneity, whereas clouds with decaying neighboring clouds are associated with less heterogeneous surfaces. Also, those with decaying neighboring clouds experience larger instability and a more humid boundary layer, indicating evaporation below the cloud base is likely occurring before those clouds are formed. Larger instability leads to higher vertical velocity and convergence within the cloud, which causes stronger surrounding downdrafts and water vapor removal in the surrounding area. The latter appears to be the reason for the decaying neighboring clouds. Finally, understanding those processes provide insights into how cloud–cloud interactions modulate the evolution of cloud population and into how this evolution can be represented in future cumulus parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño

The majority of future projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show more frequent exceedances of the 5 mm day -1 rainfall threshold in the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall during El Niño, previously described in the literature as an increase in “extreme El Niño events”; however, these exceedance frequencies vary widely across models, and in some projections actually decrease. Here we combine single-model large ensemble simulations with phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to diagnose the mechanisms for these differences. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, tending to amplify extreme El Niño occurrence; however, changes to the magnitude of ENSO-related SST variability can drastically influence the results, indicating that understanding changes to SST variability remains imperative. Future El Niño rainfall intensifies most in models with 1) larger historical cold SST biases in the central equatorial Pacific, which inhibit future increases in local convective cloud shading, enabling more local warming; and 2) smaller historical warm SST biases in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which enhance future reductions in stratus cloud, enabling more local warming. Additionally, these competing mechanisms complicate efforts to determine whether CMIP5 models under- or overestimate the future impacts of climate change on El Niño rainfall and its global impacts. However, the relation between future projections and historical biases suggests the possibility of using observable metrics as “emergent constraints” on future extreme El Niño, and a proof of concept using SSTA variance, precipitation sensitivity to SST, and regional SST trends is presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models

We report that this study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiple-platform and multiple-Doppler radar observations of a supercell thunderstorm in South America during RELAMPAGO

On 10 November 2018, during the RELAMPAGO field campaign in Argentina, South America, a thunderstorm with supercell characteristics was observed by an array of mobile observing instruments, including three Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars. This is believed to be the first such storm ever sampled by multiple Doppler radars in South America, and one of perhaps two such sets of observations in the Southern Hemisphere. The observational strategies employed within the Córdoba Province on 10 November are described, as also is the evolution of the initial deep convective clouds through their organization into a supercell. In contrast to the archetypal supercell, the updraft rotation in this storm was rather short lived (~20 min), as also was the occurrence of damaging hail, causing us to question whether this indeed was indeed a supercell. However, additional data collected within the Córdoba Province provide us with evidence of other storms with this behavior, which appears to be attributable in part to effects of the local terrain. Thus, the structure and evolution of this storm documented during RELAMPAGO may be typical in this region.

Trapp, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗