Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence interval”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Demonstration of Deployment Accuracy of the Starshade Inner Disk Subsystem

We present experimental results that demonstrate the required in-plane deployment accuracy of the starshade Inner Disk Subsystem (IDS). This effort was to address Milestone 7C of the Starshade Technology Activity S5, which requires that the in-plane deployment accuracy of the petal interfaces on the IDS be within +/-300um. A full-scale 10m-diameter IDS prototype was constructed. This prototype comprised a medium-fidelity perimeter truss, medium-fidelity spokes, and a low-fidelity optical shield (OS). The testbed also included gravity compensation systems and a laser tracker metrology system. The post-processed measurement uncertainties of the laser tracker were less than 30um at the 3 sigma level. Design, engineering and fabrication of these components was done by JPL, Tendeg, and Roccor. Testing was performed at the Tendeg facility in Louisville, Colorado. The IDS prototype was deployed 22 times and the locations of petal interfaces on the IDS were measured after each deployment. Based on this data, tolerance intervals were calculated that would contain 99.73% of future deployment accuracy errors with 90% confidence. These tolerance intervals are conservative estimates for 3 sigma bounds. The tolerance intervals for the three pertinent error components were found to be within the required allocations, with at least 19% margin.

Turse, Dana↗
NASA NTRS1999

Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

John S Tripp↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for rare decays of the Z and Higgs bosons to a J / ψ or ψ(2S) meson and a photon in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search is presented for rare decays of the Z and Higgs bosons to a photon and a J∕ψ or a ψ(2S) meson, with the charmonium state subsequentially decaying to a pair of muons. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 123 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. No evidence for branching fractions of these rare decay channels larger than predicted in the standard model is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set: $\mathcal{B}$(H → J∕ψγ ) < 2.6 × 10 −4 , $\mathcal{B}$(H → ψ(2S)γ ) < 9.9 × 10 −4 , $\mathcal{B}$(Z → J∕ψγ ) < 0.6 × 10 −6 , and $\mathcal{B}$(Z → ψ(2S)γ ) < 1.3 × 10 −6 . The ratio of the Higgs boson coupling modifiers 𝜅 c ∕𝜅 γ is constrained to be in the interval (−157, +199) at 95% confidence level. Assuming 𝜅 γ = 1, this interval becomes (−166, +208).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Measures of measurement adequacy

The adequacy of a measurement instrument is often characterized in terms of the precision, accuracy, and confidence that can be assigned to the measurements that it produces. The accuracy of the measurement may be defined as the size of the difference between the true and measured values. The precision of the system over a large number of measurements may be defined in terms of the sample standarad deviation. The confidence in an interval-values measurement may be defined as the probability that this interval contains the true value. These concepts are discussed in terms of their mathematical solutions.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for CP violation in t$\overline{\textrm{t}}$H and tH production in multilepton channels in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The charge-parity (CP) structure of the Yukawa interaction between the Higgs (H) boson and the top quark is measured in a data sample enriched in the t$\overline{t}$H and tH associated production, using 138 fb -1 of data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study targets events where the H boson decays via H → WW or H → ττ and the top quarks decay via t → Wb: the W bosons decay either leptonically or hadronically, and final states characterized by the presence of at least two leptons are studied. Machine learning techniques are applied to these final states to enhance the separation of CP -even from CP -odd scenarios. Two-dimensional confidence regions are set on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, which are respectively defined as the CP -even and CP -odd top-Higgs Yukawa coupling modifiers. No significant fractional CP -odd contributions, parameterized by the quantity |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| are observed; the parameter is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.59 with an interval of (0.24, 0.81) at 68% confidence level. The results are combined with previous results covering the H → ZZ and H → γγ decay modes, yielding two- and one-dimensional confidence regions on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, while |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.28 with an interval of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| < 0.55 at 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model CP -even prediction of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the Higgs boson width and evidence of its off-shell contributions to ZZ production

Since the discovery of the Higgs boson in 2012, detailed studies of its properties have been ongoing. Besides its mass, its width - related to its lifetime - is an important parameter. One way to determine this quantity is by measuring its off-shell production, where the Higgs boson mass is far away from its nominal value, and relating it to its on-shell production, where the mass is close to the nominal value. Here, we report evidence for such off-shell contributions to the production cross section of two Z bosons with data from the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. We constrain the total rate of the off-shell Higgs boson contribution beyond the Z boson pair production threshold, relative to its standard model expectation, to the interval [0.0061, 2.0] at 95% confidence level. The scenario with no off-shell contribution is excluded at a p-value of 0.0003 (3.6 standard deviations). We measure the width of the Higgs boson as $\Gamma_{\mathrm{H}}$ = 3.2 $_{-1.7}^{+2.4}$ MeV, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 4.1 MeV. In addition, we set constraints on anomalous Higgs boson couplings to W and Z boson pairs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Search for extinct natural radioactivity of Pb205 via thallium-isotope anomalies in chondrites and lunar soil.

Thallium and Pb204 contents were determined by stable-isotope-dilution analysis in 16 chondrites, one achondrite, and Apollo 11 and 12 lunar fines. Meteoritic thallium contents vary over a large range, 0.02 to 100 ppb, corresponding to the fact that thallium is a highly fractionated volatile element. Lunar thallium contents are less than 5 ppb. The Tl205/Tl203 ratio was determined in most of the samples, with precision ranging from 0.03% to several percent depending mainly on the amount of thallium present. No variations from the terrestrial ratio were observed. The chondritic isochron slope for Pb205 (13.8-m.y. half-life) is less than or equal to 0.00009 (99% confidence level), corresponding to an interval of at least 60 m.y. and possibly exceeding 120 m.y. between the termination of s-process nucleosynthesis and the lead-thallium fractionations.

Huey, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Sampling of Tide Heights Study

The goal of the study was to determine if it was possible to reduce the cost of verifying computational models of tidal waves and currents. Statistical techniques were used to determine the least number of samples required, in a given situation, to remain statistically significant, and thereby reduce overall project costs. Commercial, academic, and Federal agencies could benefit by applying these techniques, without the need to 'touch' every item in the population. For example, the requirement of this project was to measure the heights and times of high and low tides at 8,000 locations for verification of computational models of tidal waves and currents. The application of the statistical techniques began with observations to determine the correctness of submitted measurement data, followed by some assumptions based on the observations. Among the assumptions were that the data were representative of data-collection techniques used at the measurement locations, that time measurements could be ignored (that is, height measurements alone would suffice), and that the height measurements were from a statistically normal distribution. Sample means and standard deviations were determined for all locations. Interval limits were determined for confidence levels of 95, 98, and 99 percent. It was found that the numbers of measurement locations needed to attain these confidence levels were 55, 78, and 96, respectively.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

Decision-related cortical potentials during an auditory signal detection task with cued observation intervals

Cortical-evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing an auditory detection task with confidence rating responses. Unlike earlier studies that used similar procedures, the observation interval during which the auditory signal could occur was clearly marked by a visual cue light. By precisely defining the observation interval and, hence, synchronizing all perceptual decisions to the evoked potential averaging epoch, it was possible to demonstrate that high-confidence false alarms are accompanied by late-positive P3 components equivalent to those for equally confident hits. Moreover the hit and false alarm evoked potentials were found to covary similarly with variations in confidence rating and to have similar amplitude distributions over the scalp. In a second experiment, it was demonstrated that correct rejections can be associated with a P3 component larger than that for hits. Thus it was possible to show, within the signal detection paradigm, how the two major factors of decision confidence and expectancy are reflected in the P3 component of the cortical-evoked potential.

Squires, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Computation of the intervals of uncertainties about the parameters found for identification

A modeling method to calculate the intervals of uncertainty for parameters found by identification is described. The region of confidence and the general approach to the calculation of these intervals are discussed. The general subprograms for determination of dimensions are described. They provide the organizational charts for the subprograms, the tests carried out and the listings of the different subprograms.

Mereau, P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Testing claims of the GW170817 binary neutron star inspiral affecting β-decay rates

On August 17, 2017, the first gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral (GW170817) was detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced VIRGO. Here we present radioactive β-decay rates of three independent sources 44 Ti, 60 Co and 137 Cs, monitored during the same period by a precision experiment designed to investigate the decay of long-lived radioactive sources. We do not find any significant correlations between decay rates in a 5 h time interval following the GW170817 observation. This contradicts a previous claim published in this journal of an observed 2.5σ Pearson Correlation between fluctuations in the number of observed decays from two β-decaying isotopes ( 32 Si and 36 Cl) in the same time interval. By correcting for the choice of an arbitrary time interval, we find no evidence of a correlation above 1.5σ confidence. In addition, we argue that such analyses on correlations in arbitrary time intervals should always correct for the so-called Look-Elsewhere effect by quoting the global significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Higgs boson CP properties in vector-boson fusion production in the H → τ + τ − channel with the ATLAS detector

The CP properties of the Higgs boson are studied in the vector-boson fusion production mode. The analysis exploits the decay mode of the Higgs boson into two τ-leptons using 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Results are obtained using the Optimal Observable method. CP-violating interactions between the Higgs boson and electroweak gauge bosons are considered in the effective field theory framework, with the interaction strength described in the HISZ basis by $\tilde{d}$, and in the Warsaw basis by c H$\tilde{W}$ , c H$\tilde{B}$ , and c H$\tilde{W}$B . No deviations relative to the Standard Model are observed, and limits are obtained on the strength parameters. The $\tilde{d}$ parameter is constrained to the interval [−0.012, 0.044] at the 95% confidence level while c H$\tilde{W}$ is constrained to [−0.24, 0.83], when considering both linear and quadratic effects of physics beyond the Standard Model.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
NASA NTRS2014

GCR Environmental Models III: GCR Model Validation and Propagated Uncertainties in Effective Dose

This is the last of three papers focused on quantifying the uncertainty associated with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) models used for space radiation shielding applications. In the first paper, it was found that GCR ions with Z>2 and boundary energy below 500 MeV/nucleon induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This is an important finding since GCR model development and validation have been heavily biased toward Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer measurements below 500 MeV/nucleon. Weights were also developed that quantify the relative contribution of defined GCR energy and charge groups to effective dose behind shielding. In the second paper, it was shown that these weights could be used to efficiently propagate GCR model uncertainties into effective dose behind shielding. In this work, uncertainties are quantified for a few commonly used GCR models. A validation metric is developed that accounts for measurements uncertainty, and the metric is coupled to the fast uncertainty propagation method. For this work, the Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) 2010 and 2011 and the Matthia GCR models are compared to an extensive measurement database. It is shown that BON2011 systematically overestimates heavy ion fluxes in the range 0.5-4 GeV/nucleon. The BON2010 and BON2011 also show moderate and large errors in reproducing past solar activity near the 2000 solar maximum and 2010 solar minimum. It is found that all three models induce relative errors in effective dose in the interval [-20%, 20%] at a 68% confidence level. The BON2010 and Matthia models are found to have similar overall uncertainty estimates and are preferred for space radiation shielding applications.

Slaba, Tony C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from the combination of single and double Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

The Higgs boson (H) trilinear self-coupling, λ 3 , is constrained via its measured properties and limits on the HH pair production using the proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV . The combination of event categories enriched in single-H and HH events is used to measure κ λ , defined as the value of λ 3 normalized to its standard model prediction, while simultaneously constraining the Higgs boson couplings to fermions and vector bosons. Values of κ λ outside the interval -1.2 < κ λ < 7.5 are excluded at 2σ confidence level, which is compatible with the expected range of -2.0 < κ λ < 7.7 under the assumption that all other Higgs boson couplings are equal to their standard model predicted values. Relaxing the assumption on the Higgs couplings to fermions and vector bosons the observed (expected) κ λ interval is constrained to be within -1.4 < κ λ < 7.8 (-2.3 < κ λ < 7.8) at 2σ confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model validation and error attribution for a drifting qubit

Qubit performance is often reported in terms of a variety of single-value metrics, each providing a facet of the underlying noise mechanism limiting performance. However, the value of these metrics may drift over long timescales, and reporting a single number for qubit performance fails to account for the low-frequency noise processes that give rise to this drift. Here, in this work, we demonstrate how we can use the distribution of these values to validate or invalidate candidate noise models. We focus on the case of randomized benchmarking (RB), where typically a single error rate is reported but this error rate can drift over time when multiple passes of RB are performed. We show that using a statistical test as simple as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic on the distribution of RB error rates can be used to rule out noise models, assuming the experiment is performed over a long enough time interval to capture relevant low frequency noise. With confidence in a noise model, we show how care must be exercised when performing error attribution using the distribution of drifting RB error rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1977

The cosmic-ray antiproton flux - An upper limit near that predicted for secondary production

Data gathered from a balloon flight of a superconducting-magnet spectrometer have been examined for the presence of cosmic-ray antiprotons. The ratio of antiprotons to protons, p(-)/p, in cosmic rays was found to be (0.03 + or - 3.3) ten-thousandths in the rigidity interval from 4.2 to 12.5 GV. The 95%-confidence-level upper limit for p(-)/p is thus 0.00066. This upper limit is in strong contradiction to the prediction of the closed-galaxy model of Rasmussen and Peters (1975), but is not inconsistent with the prediction of the modified closed-galaxy model of Peters and Westergaard (1977). It is nearly equal to the predictions of conventional propagation models. This result provides an independent confirmation of the absence of primary antimatter in the cosmic rays at a level of approximately a few ten-thousandths.

Badhwar, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew↗