Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

A comparison of measured and estimated meteorological data for use in crop growth modeling

Gridded spatial estimates of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, prepared for agricultural use from World Meteorological Organization surface reports and enhanced by polar orbiting satellites were compared with daily meteorological data measured at various agricultural research facilities across the United States to determine their level of accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that daily maximum temperature can be determined to within 9.1 degrees Celsius with ninety percent confidence. With similar levels of confidence, daily minimum temperature can be determined to within 6.7 degrees Celsius, daily solar radiation to within 231.2 cal/sq cm min, and daily precipitation to within 9.7 millimeters.

Perry, C. R., Jr.↗

Dark streaks on talus slopes, Mars

High-resolution pictures of talus slopes on Mars show small, dark streaks that characteristically widen downward. These streaks are different from the thin and even streaks of various albedos that stream from cliffs on talus slopes, but gradations between the two streak types occur and not all streaks can be classified with confidence. In order to study the nature and origin of the small, widening, dark streaks, all Viking pictures with a resolution of less than 100 m/pixel were surveyed. To date several hundred streaks were located, but only few are of high enough resolution to be confidently identified as widening downwards. The approximate dimensions of the streaks were measured and their shapes, numbers, position, and spacing on slopes were noted. They were plotted on a topographic map, and their relation to topography, geologic units, and regions of distinct thermal inertia and albedo were studied. Also noted was the season at which images containing streaks were acquired and the direction of illumination. Albedo measurements are in progress. Several streaks can be seen stereoscopically, but none are observed on color images. The observation of small dark streaks on talus slopes on Mars is compatible with an interpretation of their origin as eruptions of small masses of wet debris in places where steep walls intersect aquifers or where seasonal equatorial warming permits the local melting of ground ice.

Ferguson, H. M.↗

Linear and circular polarization of the cosmic background radiation

New data which consist of continued measurements of the linear polarization of the cosmic background radiation as well as the first measurement of the circular polarization are examined. Eleven declinations have been surveyed for linear polarization and one declination for circular polarization, all at 9 mm wavelength. No evidence is found for either a significant linear or circular component with statistical errors on the linear component of 20-60 microK for various models. For linear polarization, a 95 percent confidence level limit of 0.1 mK (0.00003) for an axisymmetric anisotropic model is achieved, while for spherical harmonics through third order, a corresponding limit of 0.2 mK is achieved. For a declination of 37 deg, a limit of 12 mK is placed on the time-varying component and 20 mK on the dc component of the circular polarization at the 95 percent confidence level. At 37 percent declination, the sensitivity per beam patch (7 deg) is 0.2 mK.

Lubin, P.↗

Wide-angle radio tail QSOs as members of clusters of galaxies. II - Direct optical observations and spectroscopy of QSO fields

Deep, direct observations are obtained for the fields of 19 QSOs (redshift values 0.3-1.5) whose 'excess' galaxy counts in 1.17-sq arcmin fields centered on the QSOs confirm QSO redshift cosmological interpretations at the 99-percent confidence level. It is in addition indicated with 97-percent confidence that wide angle radio tail QSOs lie in richer concentrations of galaxies than undistorted QSOs. The results obtained also confirm that the 'excess' galaxies detected in the QSO fields have the same redshifts as the QSOs. These observations indicate that deep CCD observations of the fields of radio tail QSOs would provide a sample of distant clusters of galaxies at known redshifts (those of the QSOs).

Hintzen, P.↗

Cockpit Window Edge Proximity Effects on Judgements of Horizon Vertical Displacement

To quantify the influence of a spatially fixed edge on vertical displacement threshold, twenty-four males (12 pilots, 12 non-pilots) were presented a series of forced choice, paired comparison trials in which a 32 deg arc wide, thin, luminous horizontal stimulus line moved smoothly downward through five angles from a common starting position within a three second-long period. The five angles were 1.4, 1.7, 2, 2.3, and 2.6 deg. Each angle was presented paired with itself and the other four angles in all combinations in random order. For each pair of trials the observer had to choose which trial possessed the largest displacement. A confidence response also was made. The independent variable was the angular separation between the lower edge of a stable 'window' aperture through which the stimulus was seen to move and the lowest position attained by the stimulus. It was found that vertical displacement accuracy is inversely related to the angle separating the stimulus and the fixed window edge (p = .05). In addition, there is a strong tendency for pilot confidence to be lower than that of non-pilots for each of the three angular separations. These results are discussed in erms of selected cockpit features and as they relate to how pilots judge changes in aircraft pitch attitude.

Haines, R. F.↗

Space test program of high-voltage solar array-space plasma interactions

Future spacecraft, notably the proposed Space Station, will require power systems much larger than have previously been flown. It is recognized that at higher voltages, and at the relatively high plasma density present at low Earth orbital altitudes, undesirable interactions between the high voltage solar array and the space plasma will occur. Space experiments on high voltage solar array space plasma interactions in low Earth orbit are an absolute requirement for confident design of a higher voltage solar array. Experiments are presently being identified to provide the necessary space data for calibration of ground testing, validation of analytical models, and development of design guidelines required for confident design of high voltage solar arrays in space. A proposed flight experiment program which is designed to obtain the required data is summarized.

Carruth, M. R., Jr.↗

Evaluation of a real-time predictive guidance law for landing VTOL aircraft at sea

A piloted simulation evaluation was conducted to assess the merits of a predictive lull/swell guidance law for landing a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft at sea. Two cases were evaluated. The first was performed by the pilot without the aid of the lull/swell guidance indicator, which indicates a landing opportunity. The second was performed in a similar manner with the aid of the guidance indicator. The pilot was instructed to use the guidance indicator only as a landing aid. The results indicated the pilots were able to visually determine ship lulls and swells prior to landing. However, use of the lull/swell guidance resulted in increased pilot confidence in the existence of a landing opportunity, which resulted in significantly shorter hover waiting times prior to landing. The performance of the lull/swell guidance was conservative, in that it forecast the onset of deck lulls and swells later than the pilot could detect them, but with greater reliability and therefore greater pilot confidence. In no instances did the guidance algorithm predict a false ship lull with which the pilot did not agree.

Paulk, C. H., Jr.↗

Energy dependence of the P(bar)/P ratio in cosmic rays

The antiproton/proton /P(bar)/P/ratio is presented for seven kinetic energy intervals from 4.4 - 13.4 GeV. The P(bar) were observed in 1979 by the New Mexico State University balloon-borne magnet spectrometer. The observations are compared to various models including secondary production in a leaky box. A decline in the P(bar)/P ratio at low energies is expected if the P(bar) are produced as secondaries. The data are consistent with such a decline but the P(bar)/P ratio is much higher than expected. The confidence level is less than 0.0001 for a model based on a leaky box with a mean-matter-traversed lambda of 7 gm/sq cm. The best leaky-box-model fit obtained by varying lambda gives a confidence level of 0.12 for lambda l= 21 + or - 3 gm/sq c. Results are also presented for fits based on the closed-galaxy and other models.

Golden, R. L.↗

A comparison of LANDSAT TM to MSS imagery for detecting submerged aquatic vegetation in lower Chesapeake Bay

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) and Multispectral Scanner (MSS) imagery generated simultaneously over Guinea Marsh, Virginia, are assessed in the ability to detect submerged aquatic, bottom-adhering plant canopies (SAV). An unsupervised clustering algorithm is applied to both image types and the resulting classifications compared to SAV distributions derived from color aerial photography. Class confidence and accuracy are first computed for all water areas and then only shallow areas where water depth is less than 6 feet. In both the TM and MSS imagery, masking water areas deeper than 6 ft. resulted in greater classification accuracy at confidence levels greater than 50%. Both systems perform poorly in detecting SAV with crown cover densities less than 70%. On the basis of the spectral resolution, radiometric sensitivity, and location of visible bands, TM imagery does not offer a significant advantage over MSS data for detecting SAV in Lower Chesapeake Bay. However, because the TM imagery represents a higher spatial resolution, smaller SAV canopies may be detected than is possible with MSS data.

Ackleson, S. G.↗

Measures of measurement adequacy

The adequacy of a measurement instrument is often characterized in terms of the precision, accuracy, and confidence that can be assigned to the measurements that it produces. The accuracy of the measurement may be defined as the size of the difference between the true and measured values. The precision of the system over a large number of measurements may be defined in terms of the sample standarad deviation. The confidence in an interval-values measurement may be defined as the probability that this interval contains the true value. These concepts are discussed in terms of their mathematical solutions.

Source record↗

Pitch change thresholds as influenced by angular rate and duration of the apparent horizon's displacement

The displacement threshold (DT) during voluntary visual tracking of a line and during fixation of a stable spot located at the initial stimulus position was determined to help in the modeling pilot manual dynamics during the nose-up 'flare' maneuver. Forty-six observers made paired comparison, forced choice judgments of the maximal downward displacements of a horizontal line moving at various speeds for the durations of 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 sec. The results indicated that the DT is significantly lower, the confidence is higher, and the number of errors and guesses is smaller when a fixation dot is present; moreover, increasing both the stimulus velocity and duration significantly improves the accuracy of displacement discrimination and increases mean confidence.

Haines, R. F.↗

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗

Statistical aspects of solar flares

A survey of the statistical properties of 850 H alpha solar flares during 1975 is presented. Comparison of the results found here with those reported elsewhere for different epochs is accomplished. Distributions of rise time, decay time, and duration are given, as are the mean, mode, median, and 90th percentile values. Proportions by selected groupings are also determined. For flares in general, mean values for rise time, decay time, and duration are 5.2 + or - 0.4 min, and 18.1 + or 1.1 min, respectively. Subflares, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the flares, had mean values lower than those found for flares of H alpha importance greater than 1, and the differences are statistically significant. Likewise, flares of bright and normal relative brightness have mean values of decay time and duration that are significantly longer than those computed for faint flares, and mass-motion related flares are significantly longer than non-mass-motion related flares. Seventy-three percent of the mass-motion related flares are categorized as being a two-ribbon flare and/or being accompanied by a high-speed dark filament. Slow rise time flares (rise time greater than 5 min) have a mean value for duration that is significantly longer than that computed for fast rise time flares, and long-lived duration flares (duration greater than 18 min) have a mean value for rise time that is significantly longer than that computed for short-lived duration flares, suggesting a positive linear relationship between rise time and duration for flares. Monthly occurrence rates for flares in general and by group are found to be linearly related in a positive sense to monthly sunspot number. Statistical testing reveals the association between sunspot number and numbers of flares to be significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, and the t statistic for slope is significant at greater than 99 percent level of confidence. Dependent upon the specific fit, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the variation can be accounted for with the linear fits. A statistically significant Northern Hemisphere flare excess (P less than 1 percent) was found, as was a Western Hemisphere excess (P approx 3 percent). Subflares were more prolific within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent), while flares of H alpha importance or = 1 were more prolific near the limbs greater than 45 deg from central meridian; P approx 2 percent). Two-ribbon flares were more frequent within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent). Slow rise time flares occurred more frequently in the western hemisphere (P approx 2 percent), as did short-lived duration flares (P approx 9 percent), but fast rise time flares were not preferentially distributed (in terms of east-west or limb-disk). Long-lived duration flares occurred more often within 45 deg 0 central meridian (P approx 7 percent). Mean durations for subflares and flares of H alpha importance or + 1, found within 45 deg of central meridian, are 14 percent and 70 percent, respectively, longer than those found for flares closer to the limb. As compared to flares occurring near cycle maximum, the flares of 1975 (near solar minimum) have mean values of rise time, decay time, and duration that are significantly shorter. A flare near solar maximum, on average, is about 1.6 times longer than one occurring near solar minimum.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Cruse, T. A.↗

Ground test of large flexible structures

Many future mission models require large space (LSS) which have accurate surfaces and/or the capability of being accurately aligned. If ground test approaches which will provide adequate confidence of the structrual performance to the program managers are not developed, many viable structural concepts may never be utilized. The size and flexibility of many of the structural concepts will preclude the use of the current ground test methods because of the adverse effects of the terrestrial environment. The challenge is to develop new test approaches which will provide confidence in the capability of LSS to meet performance requirements prior to flight. The activities on ground testing of LSS are described. Since some of the proposed structural systems cannot be tested in entirety, a coordinated ground test analytical model program is required to predict structural performance in space. Several concepts of ground testing under development are addressed.

Wada, Ben K.↗

The ortho/para ratio of water vapor in Comet Halley

The ortho/para ratio of H2O is shown to be an invariant in the cometary coma. The dependence of ortho-para ratio on temperature in thermal equilibrium is given, and the nuclear-spin-temperature is defined. Its relation to the physical temperature of the cometary ices is discussed, and the prospects for using the observed ortho/para ratio to infer properties of the cometary nucleus are explored. The ortho/para ratio in Halley's comet is derived from high resolution infrared spectra of near 2.7 microns wavelength. On UT December 24.1, 1985 it was 2.73 + or - 0.17, and on UT March 22.7, 1986 it was 3.23 + or - 0.37. The nuclear-spin-temperature was 35 K (+9 K, -5 K) pre-perihelion, and less than 40 K post-perihelion, at the 67% confidence limit. Both numbers are consistent with modeled values of the equilibrium temperature of the cometary nucleus at aphelion (47 K). However, at the 95% confidence limit they are also fully consistent with temperatures less than 50 K, corresponding to an ortho/para ratio of about 3.0.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

System architecture of a gallium arsenide one-gigahertz digital IC tester

The design for a 1-GHz digital integrated circuit tester for the evaluation of custom GaAs chips and subsystems is discussed. Technology-related problems affecting the design of a GaAs computer are discussed, with emphasis on the problems introduced by long printed-circuit-board interconnect. High-speed interface modules provide a link between the low-speed microprocessor and the chip under test. Memory-multiplexer and memory-shift register architectures for the storage of test vectors are described in addition to an architecture for local data storage consisting of a long chain of GaAs shift registers. The tester is constructed around a VME system card cage and backplane, and very little high-speed interconnect exists between boards. The tester has a three part self-test consisting of a CPU board confidence test, a main memory confidence test, and a high-speed interface module functional test.

Fouts, Douglas J.↗

Remote sensing of submerged aquatic vegetation in lower Chesapeake Bay - A comparison of Landsat MSS to TM imagery

Landsat MSS and TM imagery, obtained simultaneously over Guinea Marsh, VA, as analyzed and compares for its ability to detect submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). An unsupervised clustering algorithm was applied to each image, where the input classification parameters are defined as functions of apparent sensor noise. Class confidence and accuracy were computed for all water areas by comparing the classified images, pixel-by-pixel, to rasterized SAV distributions derived from color aerial photography. To illustrate the effect of water depth on classification error, areas of depth greater than 1.9 m were masked, and class confidence and accuracy recalculated. A single-scattering radiative-transfer model is used to illustrate how percent canopy cover and water depth affect the volume reflectance from a water column containing SAV. For a submerged canopy that is morphologically and optically similar to Zostera marina inhabiting Lower Chesapeake Bay, dense canopies may be isolated by masking optically deep water. For less dense canopies, the effect of increasing water depth is to increase the apparent percent crown cover, which may result in classification error.

Ackleson, S. G.↗