Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Component sizing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

Scale-Up of the Carbon Dioxide Removal by Ionic Liquid Sorbent (CDRILS) System

The Carbon Dioxide Removal by Ionic Liquid Sorbent (CDRILS) system is designed for efficient, safe and reliable carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from cabin air on long-duration missions to the Moon, deep space, and Mars. CDRILS integrates an ionic liquid sorbent with hollow fiber membrane contactors for rapid CO2 removal and recovery. The liquid-based system provides continuous CO2 delivery, which avoids complicated valve networks to switch between absorbing and desorbing beds and enables simpler integration to the Sabatier without the need for the CO2 Management System (CMS). Ionic liquids are particularly desirable as liquid absorbents for space applications since they are non-volatile, non-odorous, and have high oxidative stability. The hollow fiber membrane contactors offer both high contact area and rigorous containment between the gas and liquid phases in a microgravity environment. Scale-up of the CDRILS technology has presented a series of fascinating challenges, since the interaction between hollow fiber properties, ionic liquid properties and performance is complex. Properties measured with lab-scale hollow fiber contactors are used to estimate the performance of contactors that are similar in scale to flight-scale demonstrations. To accomplish this, component and system models have been built to relate the key scrubber and stripper design and operating variables with performance, and experiments directed to validate the models have been performed. System size, weight and power are determined by component selection, arrangement, and operating conditions. Reliability will be extremely important for any long-range mission and depends on the stability of the ionic liquids and hollow fiber contactors. We report on our continuing long term stability experiments for the ionic liquid and contactor materials and our investigation of the physical properties of additional ionic liquids.

Yates, Stephen F.↗

X-Band Radar for Studies of Tropical Storms from High Altitude UAV Platform

The increased role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in NASA's suborbital program has created a strong interest in the development of instruments with new capabilities, more compact sizes and reduced weights than the instruments currently operated on manned aircrafts. There is a strong demand and tremendous potential for using high altitude UAV (HUAV) to carry weather radars for measurements of reflectivity and wind fields from tropical storms. Tropical storm genesis frequently occurs in ocean regions that are inaccessible to piloted aircraft due to the long off shore range and the required periods of time to gather significant data. Important factors of interest for the study of hurricane genesis include surface winds, profiled winds, sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions. Current satellite precipitation and surface wind sensors have resolutions that are too large and revisit times that are too infrequent to study this problem. Furthermore, none of the spaceborne sensors measure winds within the storm itself. A dual beam X-band Doppler radar, UAV Radar (URAD), is under development at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the study of tropical storms from HUAV platforms, such as a Global Hawk. X-band is the most desirable frequency for airborne weather radars since these can be built in a relatively compact size using off-the-shelf components which cost significantly less than other higher frequency radars. Furthermore, X-band radars provide good sensitivity with tolerable attenuation in storms. The low-cost and light-weight URAD will provide new capabilities for studying hurricane genesis by analyzing the vertical structure of tropical cyclones as well as 3D reflectivity and wind fields in clouds. It will enable us to measure both the 3D precipitation structure and surface winds by using two antenna beams: fixed nadir and conical scanning each produced by its associated subsystem. The nadir subsystem is a magnetron based radar modified from a marine radar transceiver. It is capable of measuring vertical reflectivity and velocity profile while being a lower-cost, smaller size, and lighter weight version of the NASA ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), which has flown during many NASA field campaigns and has provided valuable scientific information on hurricanes and weather phenomena. Unfortunately, EDOP is too large and heavy for most UAV platforms, but the experience gained with this instrument provided us with the heritage to build a new low-cost, light-weight, smaller system that will be capable of flying on UAVs. The scanning subsystem uses a TWT transmitter and provides measurements of 3D reflectivity/wind fields in-clouds. Conical scanning of the radar beam at a 35 deg. incidence angle will also provide information of surface wind speed and direction derived from the surface return over a single 360 deg. sweep. URAD data system will be Linux based with the capability of autonomous operation. It will utilize cutting edge digital receiver and FPGA technologies to carry out the data acquisition and processing tasks. High speed navigation data from the aircraft will also be captured and saved along with radar data for 3D measurement field reconstruction and aircraft motion correction. There is a tremendous potential for UAVs to carry down-looking weather radars for measurements of reflectivity, horizontal and vertical winds from tropical storms. With operation from HUAV platforms, the dual beam X-band radar under development promises to provide greatly needed information for tropical storm research.

Rodriquez, Shannon↗

Weight and Balance Considerations for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Applied to the Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PEGASUS) Concept

The focus of this research was to understand the impact of batteries and electric motors on the weight and balance of the Parallel Electric-Gas Architecture with Synergistic Utilization Scheme (PEGASUS) concept. Because electrified aircraft propulsion components can comprise a large part of an aircraft’s weight, their integration has a significant impact on the center of gravity location and the related stability characteristics of the aircraft. We developed an analysis framework that enabled estimating the weight and volume of electrified aircraft components, their contribution to the center of gravity location, and the stability and performance of the aircraft. Trades were performed on battery placement, wing attachment point, and electric motor power to determine their impact on figures of merit such as maximum takeoff weight and block fuel. We identified batteries, and to a lesser extent electric motors, as having a large impact on aircraft center of gravity and the required horizontal tail size for longitudinal static stability. Placing electric component weight as far forward as possible resulted in reductions in the horizontal tail size required to maintain static stability. Configurations output from this framework were also evaluated using a six-degree-of-freedom simulation to quantify dynamic stability characteristics. Although shifting weight forward reduced horizontal tail size, it negatively impacted dynamic stability. This study confirms that mass property modeling and dynamic simulation, which are usually limited in conceptual design, are important for electrified aircraft concepts.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗

Low-latitude boundary layer near noon: An open field line model

We propose that many features of the cusp and low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) observed near noon MLT can be explained by interpreting the LLBL as being on open lines with an inner boundary at the separatrix between open and closed magnetic field lines. This interpretation places the poleward boundary of the LLBL and equatorward boundary of the cusp along the field line that bifurcates at the cusp neutral point. The interpretation accounts for the abrupt boundary of magnetosheath particles at the inner edge of the LLBL, a feature that is inconsistent with LLBL formation by diffusion onto closed field lines, and for the distribution of magnetosheath particles appearing more as one continuous region than as two distinct regions across the noon cusp/LLBL boundary. Furthermore, we can explain the existence of energetic radiation belt electrons and protons with differing pitch angle distributions within the LLBL and their abrupt cutoff at the poleward boundary of the LLBL. By modeling the LLBL and cusp region quantitatively, we can account for a hemispherical difference in the location of the equatorial boundary of the cusp that is observed to be dependent on the dipole tilt angle but not on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) x component. We also find important variations and hemispherical differences in that the size of the LLBL that should depend strongly upon the x component of the IMF. This prediction is observationally testable. Finally, we find that when the IMF is strongly northward, the LLBL may include a narrow region adjacent to the magnetopause where field lines are detached (i.e., have both ends connected to the IMF).

Lyons, L. R.↗

Design and optimization of a self-deploying PV tent array

A study was performed to design a self-deploying tent shaped PV (photovoltaic) array and optimize the design for maximum specific power. Each structural component of the design was analyzed to determine the size necessary to withstand the various forces it would be subjected to. Through this analysis the component weights were determined. An optimization was performed to determine the array dimensions and blanket geometry which produce the maximum specific power for a given PV blanket. This optimization was performed for both Lunar and Martian environmental conditions. The performance specifications for the array at both locations and with various PV blankets were determined.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

Tunable phase structure in NaNbO 3 ceramics by grain-size effect, electric field and heat treatment

Large polarization and strain change during antiferroelectric - ferroelectric phase transition under electric field is the foundation for realizing excellent electrical properties in antiferroelectric ceramics, therefore, the adjustment of antiferroelectricity and clarification of the corresponding mechanism is the foundation for controlling electrical properties. NaNbO3 is the most complex perovskite system showing multiple antiferroelectric phases in a wide temperature range, in which the antiferroelectricity shows obvious instability with changing external and internal conditions, namely the antiferroelectric phase can be adjusted by grain-size effect, electric field and heat treatment. According to the systematical study in terms of the Rietveld refinement of synchrotron XRD and Raman, NaNbO3 exhibits a ferrielectric P21ma structure at room temperature, the ferroelectric component of which increases with decreasing grain size. Two antiferroelectric tetragonal phases exist around Curie temperature TC before the entrance of antiferroelectric R phase zone, while an antiferroelectric monoclinic phase, which can be maintained to room temperature by annealing treatment, acts as the bridge for the depolarization of the poled NaNbO3 with ferroelectric Q phase. A detailed phase diagram mainly focused on the antiferroelectric phase zones of NaNbO3 is plotted, which gives a clear understanding about the polymorphic phase transitions under different conditions. Finally, the results concluded in this work would give a clear guidance for designing high-performance NaNbO3-based lead-free ceramics from the point of structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of the Modular Automated Reconfigurable Assembly System (MARAS) concept to adaptable vision gauging and parts feeding

This paper presents the first phase results of a collaborative effort between university researchers and a flexible assembly systems integrator to implement a comprehensive modular approach to flexible assembly automation. This approach, named MARAS (Modular Automated Reconfigurable Assembly System), has been structured to support multiple levels of modularity in terms of both physical components and system control functions. The initial focus of the MARAS development has been on parts gauging and feeding operations for cylinder lock assembly. This phase is nearing completion and has resulted in the development of a highly configurable system for vision gauging functions on a wide range of small components (2 mm to 100 mm in size). The reconfigurable concepts implemented in this adaptive Vision Gauging Module (VGM) are now being extended to applicable aspects of the singulating, selecting, and orienting functions required for the flexible feeding of similar mechanical components and assemblies.

By, Andre Bernard↗

The influence of grain size and composition on slow plastic flow in FeAl between 1100 and 1400 K

The slow plastic flow properties of a series of binary B2 FeAl intermetallics at elevated temperatures, and ranging in aluminum content from 39.8 to 48.7 at. pct, were investigated using constant-velocity compression tests at strain rates from 2 x 10 to the -3rd to 2 x 10 to the -7th. Two deformation mechanisms with the same activation energy are found. For the mode with a stress component of 6, the strength increases with decreasing grain size, probably as a result of Hall-Petch behavior, while for the mode with stress component of 3, the strength increases with increasing grain size, probably due to the action of diffusional creep. Creep in the high stress exponent mode can be described in terms of the initial grain size because the large-angle grain structure is replaced by a small-angle grain microstructure of similar grain diameter during deformation.

Whittenberger, J. D.↗

Fast Airborne Aerosol Size and Chemistry Measurements with the High Resolution Aerosol Mass Spectrometer during the MILAGRO Campaign

The concentration, size, and composition of non-refractory submicron aerosol (NR-PM(sub l)) was measured over Mexico City and central Mexico with a High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) onboard the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft as part of the MILAGRO field campaign. This was the first aircraft deployment of the HR-ToF-AMS. During the campaign the instrument performed very well, and provided 12 s data. The aerosol mass from the AMS correlates strongly with other aerosol measurements on board the aircraft. Organic aerosol (OA) species dominate the NR-PM(sub l) mass. OA correlates strongly with CO and HCN indicating that pollution (mostly secondary OA, SOA) and biomass burning (BB) are the main OA sources. The OA to CO ratio indicates a typical value for aged air of around 80 microg/cubic m (STP) ppm(exp -1). This is within the range observed in outflow from the Northeastern US, which could be due to a compensating effect between higher BB but lower biogenic VOC emissions during this study. The O/C atomic ratio for OA is calculated from the HR mass spectra and shows a clear increase with photochemical age, as SOA forms rapidly and quickly overwhelms primary urban OA, consistent with Volkamer et al. (2006) and Kleinman et al. (2008). The stability of the OA/CO while O/C increases with photochemical age implies a net loss of carbon from the OA. BB OA is marked by signals at m/z 60 and 73, and also by a signal enhancement at large m/z indicative of larger molecules or more resistance to fragmentation. The main inorganic components show different spatial patterns and size distributions. Sulfate is regional in nature with clear volcanic and petrochemical/power plant sources, while the urban area is not a major regional source for this species. Nitrate is enhanced significantly in the urban area and immediate outflow, and is strongly correlated with CO indicating a strong urban source. The importance of nitrate decreases with distance from the city likely due to evaporation. BB does not appear to be a strong source of nitrate despite its high emissions of nitrogen oxides, presumably due to low ammonia emissions. NR-chloride often correlates with HCN indicating a fire source, although other sources likely contribute as well. This is the first aircraft study of the regional evolution of aerosol chemistry from a tropical megacity.

DeCarlo, P. F.↗

Design, optimization, and analysis of a self-deploying PV tent array

A tent shaped PV array was designed and the design was optimized for maximum specific power. In order to minimize output power variation a tent angle of 60 deg was chosen. Based on the chosen tent angle an array structure was designed. The design considerations were minimal deployment time, high reliability, and small stowage volume. To meet these considerations the array was chosen to be self-deployable, form a compact storage configuration, using a passive pressurized gas deployment mechanism. Each structural component of the design was analyzed to determine the size necessary to withstand the various forces to which it would be subjected. Through this analysis the component weights were determined. An optimization was performed to determine the array dimensions and blanket geometry which produce the maximum specific power for a given PV blanket. This optimization was performed for both lunar and Martian environmental conditions. Other factors such as PV blanket types, structural material, and wind velocity (for Mars array), were varied to determine what influence they had on the design point. The performance specifications for the array at both locations and with each type of PV blanket were determined. These specifications were calculated using the Arimid fiber composite as the structural material. The four PV blanket types considered were silicon, GaAs/Ge, GaAsCLEFT, and amorphous silicon. The specifications used for each blanket represented either present day or near term technology. For both the Moon and Mars the amorphous silicon arrays produced the highest specific power.

Collozza, Anthony J.↗

Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility Presentation to Open EVA Research Forum

NASA is required to accommodate individuals who fall within a 1st to 99th percentile range on a variety of critical dimensions. The hardware the crew interacts with must therefore be designed and verified to allow these selected individuals to complete critical mission tasks safely and at an optimal performance level. Until now, designers have been provided simpler univariate critical dimensional analyses. The multivariate characteristics of intra-individual and inter-individual size variation must be accounted for, since an individual who is 1st percentile in one body dimension will not be 1st percentile in all other dimensions. A more simplistic approach, assuming every measurement of an individual will fall within the same percentile range, can lead to a model that does not represent realistic members of the population. In other words, there is no '1st percentile female' or '99th percentile male', and designing for these unrealistic body types can lead to hardware issues down the road. Furthermore, due to budget considerations, designers are normally limited to providing only 1 size of a prototype suit, thus requiring other possible means to ensure that a given suit architecture would yield the necessary suit sizes to accommodate the entire user population. Fortunately, modeling tools can be used to more accurately model the types of human body sizes and shapes that will be encountered in a population. Anthropometry toolkits have been designed with a variety of capabilities, including grouping the population into clusters based on critical dimensions, providing percentile information given test subject measurements, and listing measurement ranges for critical dimensions in the 1st-99th percentile range. These toolkits can be combined with full body laser scans to allow designers to build human models that better represent the astronaut population. More recently, some rescaling and reposing capabilities have been developed, to allow reshaping of these static laser scans in more representative postures, such as an abducted shoulder. All of the hardware designed for use with the crew must be sized to accommodate the user population, but the interaction between subject size and hardware fit is complicated with multi-component, complex systems like a space suit. Again, prototype suits are normally only provided in a limited size range, and suited testing is an expensive endeavor; both of these factors limit the number and size of people who can be used to benchmark a spacesuit. However, modeling tools for assessing suit-human interaction can allow potential issues to be modeled and visualized. These types of modeling tools can be used for analysis of a larger combination of anthropometries and hardware types than could feasibly be done with actual human subjects and physical mockups.

Rajulu, Sudhakar↗

Lightweight Nickel Electrode Development Program

Because of its relatively high specific energy and excellent cycling capability, the nickel-hydrogen (Ni-H2) cell is used extensively to store energy in aerospace systems. For the past several years, the NASA Lewis Research Center has been developing the Ni-H2 cell to improve its components, design, and operating characteristics. The battery size and weight are crucial parameters in aerospace and spacecraft power systems for applications such as the International Space Station, space satellites, and space telescopes. The nickel electrode has been identified as the heaviest and most critical component of the Ni-H2 cell. Consequently, Lewis began and is leading a program to reduce the electrode's weight by using lightweight plaques.

Britton, Doris L.↗

Discovery of coesite and shocked quartz associated with the upper Eocene cpx spherule layer

At least two major impact ejecta layers have been discovered in upper Eocene strata. The upper layer is the North American microtektite layer. lt consists tektite fragments, microtektites, and shocked mineral grains (e.g., quartz and feldspar with multiple sets of PDFs, coesite and reidite (a high-pressure polymorph of zircon)). The slightly older layer contains clinopyroxene-bearing (cpx) spherules and microtektites associated with an Ir anomaly. The North American tektite layer may be derived from the Chesapeake Bay impact structure, and the cpx spherule layer may from the Popigai impact crater. A cpx spherule layer associated with a positive Ir anomaly was recently found at ODP Site 709, western Indian Ocean. A large sample (Hole 709C, core 31, section 4, 145-150 cm), originally used for a study of interstitial water by shipboard scientists, was acquired for the purpose of recovering a large number of spherules for various petrographic and geochemical studies. A split of the sample (50.35 g) was disaggregated and wet-sieved. More than 17,000 cpx spherules and several hundred microtektites (larger than 125 microns) were recovered from the sample. Rare white opaque grains were observed in the 125-250 micron size fraction after removal of the carbonate component using dilute HCI. Seven of the white opaque grains were X-rayed using a Gandolfi camera and six were found to be coesite (probably mixed with lechatelierite). Eighty translucent colorless grains from the 63-125 micron size fraction were studied with a petrographic microscope. Four of the grains exhibit one to two sets of planar deformation features (PDFs). The only other possible known occurrence of shocked minerals associated with the cpx spherule layer is at Massignano, Italy, where pancake-shaped clay spherules (thought to be diagenetically altered cpx spherules are associated with a positive Ir anomaly and Ni- rich spinel crystals. Shocked quartz grains with multiple sets of PDFs also occur at this site. Until now, unmelted impact ejecta have not been found associated with the cpx spherules at any of the other 20 sites around the world and this is the first time that coesite has been found associated with the cpx spherule layer. The discovery of coesite and shocked quartz associated with the cpx spherules at Site 709 in Indian Ocean is further evidence for the impact origin of the cpx spherule layer. We hope that future discovery of other unmelted minerals from this sample may provide materials to establish constraints on the provenance of this late Eocene ejecta.

Liu, S.↗

The Physical Character of Small-Scale Interstellar Structures

The primary objective of this program was to obtain FUSE observations of the multiple interstellar absorption lines of H2 toward the members of 3 resolvable binary/multiple star systems to explore the physical conditions in known interstellar small-scale structures. Each of the selected systems was meant to address a different aspect of the models for the origin of these structures: 1) The stars HD 32039/40 were meant to probe a temporally varying component which probed a cloud with an inferred size of tens to a few hundreds of AU. The goal was to see if there was any significant H2 associated with this component; 2) The star HD 36408B and its companion HD 36408A (observed as part of FUSE GTO program P119) show significant spatial and temporal (proper motion induced) Na I column variations in a strong, relatively isolated component, as well as a relatively simple component structure. The key goal here was to identify any differences in H2 or C I excitation between the sightlines, and to measure the physical conditions (primarily density and temperature) in the temporally varying component; 3) The stars HD 206267C and HD 206267D are highly reddened sightlines which showed significant variations in K I and molecular absorption lines in multiple velocity components. Coupled with FUSE GTO observations of HD 206267A (program P116), the goal was to study the variations in H2 along sightlines which are significantly more distant, with larger separations, and with greater extinctions than the other selected binary systems.

Lauroesch, James T.↗

High Semi-Volatile Organic Aerosol Contributions Associated with Ammonium Nitrate in the Coastal Urban Environment

Organic components often contribute 50% or more of the submicron aerosol mass in coastal urban environments, but their partitioning between the gas and particle phases is controlled by a complex mixture of unidentified organic compounds that are poorly constrained by observations. This study compares daily filter organic functional groups (OFG) with online organic mass fragments from La Jolla, California, as part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), quantifying the contributions of four types of non-volatile (NV) organic emission sources to the submicron composition. Daily filters retained only 0.79–0.98 µg/m3 NV submicron organic mass concentration, even though 1.8–1.9 µg/m3 non-refractory (NR) submicron organic mass concentration was measured online. The 62–64% of measured NR submicron organic mass concentration that exceeded what remained on the filters after 23-hr sampling is interpreted as semi-volatile, consistent with the moderate correlation of the NR NV difference to NR ammonium, NR nitrate, and biomass burning-related NV and NR organic factors. The association between semi-volatile organic components and ammonium nitrate likely results from both co-emission and co-evaporation. Size-resolved filter analysis showed that NV organic mass concentration accounts for 68% of NR organic mass concentration for 0.5–1 µm dry diameter but account for 9.0% for 0.18–0.5 µm dry diameter showing the differences in volatility between particle modes. Importantly, volatility of organic components was size-dependent Information Classification: General and associated with ammonium nitrate and biomass burning, providing guidance for constraining atmospheric aerosol properties in global models.

Pelayo, Christian↗

Extremely Slow Trap-Mediated Hole Relaxation in Room-Temperature InP/ZnSe/ZnS Quantum Dots

Time-resolved photoluminescence (PL) and transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy have been used to elucidate the hole relaxation dynamics in high-quality InP/ZnSe/ZnS quantum dots (QDs) at room temperature. In QDs having an In/P ratio close to 1:1, hole cooling is fast compared to the ~40 ps time-correlated photon-counting instrument response. However, in QDs that luminesce at wavelengths greater than around 600 nm and have excess indium, a significant fraction of the PL exhibits a slower rise time. In this case, the PL rises over a range of timescales varying from close to the instrument response to approximately 300–400 ps. The time constant of the slowest component increases with increasing InP core size and the fraction of the PL that has the slow rise time increases with excess indium in the particle. In all cases, a slow rise time and any spectral evolution on that timescale are absent in the TA results, indicating that the slow dynamics may be assigned to relaxation in the valence band. QDs emitting at wavelengths below 560 nm show very different dynamics, exhibiting a barely detectable <50 ps rise time. Based on these results and measured elemental compositions, the slow hole relaxation is assigned to the transient population of indium-based traps in the ZnSe shell that are above the valence band edge only for the larger, red-emitting QDs. Here, the relative trap to band edge relaxation rates can be understood in terms of effective mass approximation hole wave function calculations, which show that the relaxation rate is largely determined by the extent to which the hole wave function in the lowest exciton penetrates into the ZnSe shell, overlapping the trapped-hole wave functions.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Investigating structure and dynamics of unentangled poly(dimethyl- co -diphenyl)siloxane via molecular dynamics simulation

Polysiloxane is one of the most important polymeric materials in technological use. Polydimethylsiloxane displays glass-like mechanical properties at low temperatures. Incorporation of phenyl siloxane, via copolymerization for example, improves not only the low-temperature elasticity but also enhances its performance over a wide range of temperatures. Copolymerization with the phenyl component can significantly change the microscopic properties of polysiloxanes, such as chain dynamics and relaxation. However, despite much work in the literature, the influence of such changes is still not clearly understood. In this work, we systematically study the structure and dynamics of random poly(dimethyl- co -diphenyl)siloxane via atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. As the molar ratio Φ of the diphenyl component increases, we find that the size of the linear copolymer chain expands. At the same time, the chain-diffusivity slows down by over an order of magnitudes. In conclusion, the reduced diffusivity appears to be a result of a complex interplay between the structural and dynamic changes induced by phenyl substitution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗