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At least 577 records · Page 32

Supporting hierarchical soil biogeochemical modeling: version 2 of the Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model (BeTR-v2)

Abstract. Reliable soil biogeochemical modeling is a prerequisite for credible projections of climate change and associated ecosystem feedbacks. This recognition has called for frameworks that can support flexible and efficient development and application of new or alternative soil biogeochemical modules in Earth system models (ESMs). The the Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model version 1 (BeTR-v1) code (i.e., CLM4-BeTR) is one such framework designed to accelerate the development and integration of new soil biogeochemistry formulations into ESMs and to analyze structural uncertainty in ESM simulations. With a generic reactive transport capability, BeTR-v1 can represent multiphase (e.g., gaseous, aqueous, and solid), multi-tracer (e.g., nitrate and organic carbon), and multi-organism (e.g., plants, bacteria, and fungi) dynamics. Here, we describe the new version, Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model version 2 (BeTR-v2), which adopts more robust numerical solvers for multiphase diffusion and advection and coupling between biogeochemical reactions and improves code modularization over BeTR-v1. BeTR-v2 better supports different mathematical formulations in a hierarchical manner by allowing the resultant model be run for a single topsoil layer or a vertically resolved soil column, and it allows the model to be fully coupled with the land component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We demonstrate the capability of BeTR-v2 with benchmark cases and example soil biogeochemical (BGC) implementations. By taking advantage of BeTR-v2's generic structure integrated in E3SM, we then found that calibration could not resolve biases introduced by different numerical coupling strategies of plant–soil biogeochemistry. These results highlight the importance of numerically robust implementation of soil biogeochemistry and coupling with hydrology, thermal dynamics, and plants – capabilities that the open-source BeTR-v2 provides. We contend that Earth system models should strive to minimize this uncertainty by applying better numerical solvers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Satellite Frost Forecast Technology to Other Parts of the United States

Thermal infrared data taken from the GOES satellite over a period of several hours was color enhanced by computer according to temperature. The varying temperatures were then used to assist in frost forecasting. Input from Michigan and Pennsylvania to the cold climate mapping project is emphasized in the report of the second year's activities of a two year effort.

Martsolf, J. D.↗

Cloud Coverage Enhancement and Nocturnal Drizzle Suppression in Stratocumulus by Aerosols

Recent satellite observations of ship tracks surprisingly indicate that cloud water decreases with increasing droplet concentrations. However, we find by analyzing detailed simulations of stratocumulus that the reported trend is likely an artifact of sampling, only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud coverage increasing with droplet concentrations, accounting for 25% of cloud albedo increase at moderate droplet concentrations. Our simulations also show that increases in cloud water from drizzle suppression (by increasing droplet concentrations) are favored only at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations, suggesting that the indirect aerosol forcing is overestimated in climate change projections by many general circulation models.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗

Supporting Weather Data

Since its founding in 1992, Global Science & Technology, Inc. (GST), of Greenbelt, Maryland, has been developing technologies and providing services in support of NASA scientific research. GST specialties include scientific analysis, science data and information systems, data visualization, communications, networking and Web technologies, computer science, and software system engineering. As a longtime contractor to Goddard Space Flight Center s Earth Science Directorate, GST scientific, engineering, and information technology staff have extensive qualifications with the synthesis of satellite, in situ, and Earth science data for weather- and climate-related projects. GST s experience in this arena is end-to-end, from building satellite ground receiving systems and science data systems, to product generation and research and analysis.

Source record↗

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Sea-surface↗

RETScreen Plus Software Tutorial

Greater emphasis is being placed on reducing both the carbon footprint and energy cost of buildings. A building's energy usage depends upon many factors one of the most important is the local weather and climate conditions to which it's electrical, heating and air conditioning systems must respond. Incorporating renewable energy systems, including solar systems, to supplement energy supplies and increase energy efficiency is important to saving costs and reducing emissions. Also retrofitting technologies to buildings requires knowledge of building performance in its current state, potential future climate state, projection of potential savings with capital investment, and then monitoring the performance once the improvements are made. RETScreen Plus is a performance analysis software module that supplies the needed functions of monitoring current building performance, targeting projected energy efficiency improvements and verifying improvements once completed. This tutorial defines the functions of RETScreen Plus as well as outlines the general procedure for monitoring and reporting building energy performance.

Ganoe, Rene D.↗

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗

A 4 U Laser Heterodyne Radiometer for Methane (CH4) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Measurements from an Occultation-Viewing CubeSat

We present a design for a 4 U (20 cm 20 cm 10 cm) occultation-viewing laser heterodyne radiometer (LHR) that measures methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor(H2O) in the limb that is designed for deployment on a 6 U CubeSat. The LHR design collects sunlight that has undergone absorption by the trace gas and mixes it with a distributive feedback (DFB) laser centered at 1640 nm that scans across CO2, CH4, and H2O absorption features. Upper troposphere lower stratosphere measurements of these gases provide key inputs to stratospheric circulation models: measuring stratospheric circulation and its variability is essential for projecting how climate change will affect stratospheric ozone.

occultation↗

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

Exacerbation of the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced a "Pan-Caribbean" drought that was the most widespread event since 1950, due in part to El Niño in 2015/2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. We examine the role of recent warming on this drought, using new high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index datasets. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic warming has accounted for ~15-17% of drought severity, and ~7% of the Pan-Caribbean drought's spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for more than 43 million people living in this region.

Anthropogenic warming↗

Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Variability and Its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation in Reanalyses and Seasonal Forecasts

Sea ice is considered an important indicator of climate change. Interest has focused on the trend towards reduced sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, particularly during summer months. In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice has also received attention due to a trend towards increasing cover, in opposition to the Northern Hemisphere and to climate model projections. This all changed in the austral spring 2016, when the Southern Ocean sea ice cover dropped dramatically, and has remained consistently at below average values up to the present. Here I review some of the issues and perceived causes of the 2016 sea ice reduction. Several studies have suggested a change in surface winds, which would allow warmer waters to move upwards in the water column and towards the surface. Results from the GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) ocean data assimilation system are consistent with this hypothesis, and indicate a significant warming of subsurface waters occurred in the winter of 2016, and has remained in place.

Polar↗

Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO’s quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it has progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently it is possible that in the future the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

James A Anstey↗

The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Plankton Workshops: Plankton Ecosystem Function, Biodiversity, and Forecasting—Research Requirements and Applications

Plankton functional diversity is at the core of various ecological processes, including productivity, carbon cycling and sequestration, nutrient cycling, interspecies interactions, food web dynamics and structure. Through these functions, plankton play a critical role in the health of the coastal and open ocean and provide essential ecosystem services. Yet, at present, our understanding of plankton dynamics is insufficient to project how climate change and other human-driven impacts affect the functional diversity of plankton. That limits our ability to predict how critical ecosystem services will change in the future and develop strategies to adapt to these changes.

Plankton↗

Grand Canyon Ecological Forecasting: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor and Model Juniper Woodland Mortality in Grand Canyon National Park

Significant die-offs of the drought tolerant species Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) and one-seeded juniper (Juniperus monosperma) have been observed throughout central and northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP). As climate models project rising temperatures and continuous drought, land managers are concerned for the future of juniper in and around GCNP. This project incorporated data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and ocular samples of the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) in a random forest model to identify patterns between characteristics of the landscape and locations of juniper woodland mortality and to model areas subject to vulnerability. This study found no significant correlation between ocularly sampled juniper tree mortality and remotely sensed environmental variables used thus, accurately modeling mortality vulnerability in the future was not feasible. The ocular sampling, however, allows the partners at the GCNP’s Science & Resource Management Division to better understand areas of juniper tree woodland mortality and the relative amount of mortality in the park. Additionally, the areas of juniper tree mortality found in this project provide the partners with guidance for future field sampling.

Scarlet Jackson↗

Summer Monsoons in the UTLS as Observed By Recent NASA Airborne Campaigns.

During boreal summer, the circulation of the northern hemisphere upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is dominated by two quasi-stationary anticyclonic eddies driven by latent heat released in the troposphere: the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA) and the North American Monsoon Anticyclone (NAMA). Deep convection rapidly transports boundary layer air to the UTLS, and the monsoon anticyclones act to partially confine and isolate air from the surrounding atmosphere. The interactions between chemistry and circulation within these systems are crucial for understanding the sensitivity of these regions to changes in climate and air quality. Satellite observations show that within the summer monsoon anticyclones is a region of enhanced water vapor, aerosol, and trace gases of boundary layer origin near the tropopause level. However, satellite data do not provide necessary details for process studies and for diagnosing their representations in models. In response to this need, NASA conducted two airborne missions to investigate these summer monsoon systems and their roles in climate. NASA Earth Venture Suborbital 3 (EVS-3) mission called Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) completed two deployments in Salina, Kansas during summers 2021 and 2022 to study the NAMA. The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP) was a multi-agency effort to investigate the AMA from Osan, South Korea in summer 2022.

Summer↗

The Roscoe Lidar: Initial Results from the Upward and Downward Looking Airborne Lidar from the ACCLIP and SABRE Campaigns

Backscatter lidars are a staple of airborne remote sensing and are primarily used in determining the altitude, vertical structure, and optical properties of clouds and aerosols. These airborne lidars typically observe in a downward direction which is sufficient for most tropospheric objectives. With more scientific attention being directed to upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UTLS) aerosols and recent volcanic and phrocumulonimbus events in the news, developing lidar instruments that can observe the UTLS will be vital in better understanding their composition and optical properties and determining their role in the planet's radiative balance. To meet this need, the downward and upward looking Roscoe lidar was developed and flown on two recent field campaigns: Stratospheric Aerosol processes, Budget, and Radiative Effects (SABRE) and Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and CLimate Impact Project (ACCLIP) (both 2022). Building on its extensive Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) heritage, we show that Roscoe can deliver CPL-like products in both the up and down-looking directions providing an unmatched vertical view of the atmosphere from an airborne platform. Future work can leverage Roscoe's updward looking view to quantify the optical properties and extinction of UTLS aerosols.

Kenneth Christian↗

Critical Soil Moisture Thresholds of Plant Water Stress in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ crit ). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θ crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EF max ), θ crit , and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θ crit , S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θ crit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θ crit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Zheng Fu↗