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NASA NTRS1973

The Interdependence of Lake Ice and Climate in Central North America

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of lake freeze transition zone migration with the movement of large pressure centers reveals the following consistencies: (1) polar continental cyclones originate within and/or travel along the trend of the transition zone; (2) polar continental anticyclones fail to cross the transition zone; (3) polar outbreak anticyclones pass through the transition zone, apparently unaffected. In addition, storm centers associated with the transition zone undergo significant intensification manifest by a deepening of the pressure through and increased precipitation outside the zone.

Jelacic, A. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of the Solar Exclusion Zone Burn Through Maneuvers for DSCOVR to Preserve Fuel for the Gyro-less Spacecraft in a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous Orbit

DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) is a National Oceanic and Atmos-pheric Administration (NOAA) space weather, space climate, and Earth obser-vation satellite operating in a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous orbit. This report summa-rizes the two-burn maneuver campaign performed in Summer 2021 to transfer DSCOVR from the collapsing phase into the expansion phase of the Lissajous orbit to avoid the Solar Exclusion Zone (SEZ). The two-maneuver campaign performed in July and August 2021 was successful and resulted in saving the mission 31 kilograms of fuel and 100 m/s of delta-v reserved for SEZ maneu-vers which are no longer required until 2026 or 2027.

DSCOVR↗

NASA NTRS2023

Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedbacks

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.

J. C. Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0

Abstract. Safe and secure carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in activity associated with reservoir characterization and site selection for large-scale CO2 storage projects across the globe. These prospective storage sites tend to be selected for their optimal structural, petrophysical, and geochemical trapping potential. However, it has also been suggested that storing CO2 in reservoirs within the CO2 hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), characterized by high pressures and low temperatures (e.g., Arctic or marine environments), could provide a natural thermodynamic barrier to gas leakage. Evaluating the prospect of commercial-scale, long-term storage of CO2 in the GHSZ requires reservoir-scale modeling capabilities designed to account for the unique physics and thermodynamics associated with these systems. We have developed the HYDRATE flow mode and the accompanying fully implicit parallel well model in the massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model CO2 injection into the marine GHSZ. We have applied these capabilities to a set of CO2 injection scenarios designed to reveal the challenges and opportunities for commercial-scale CO2 storage in the GHSZ.

carbon storage↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and analysis of heat emissions from buildings to ambient air

Heat emissions from buildings is a significant source of anthropogenic heat influencing the urban microclimate; however, they are usually oversimplified in urban climate and microclimate modeling. This study developed a bottom-up physics-based approach to calculate heat emissions from buildings to the ambient air and implemented the approach in EnergyPlus. In this work, a simple result verification was conducted by comparing the EnergyPlus simulated results against the spreadsheet calculations. Simulations covering 16 commercial building types, four climates, and two energy efficiency levels were conducted to understand and evaluate the building heat emissions and their temporal patterns as well as three major components: (1) building envelope (convective heat transfer to ambient air), (2) zones (air exfiltration and exhaust air), and (3) HVAC systems (relief air and heat rejection from condensers or cooling towers). The main findings are: (1) heat emissions are usually higher than the site energy use (about 2.5 times), and their dynamics should be considered; (2) building characteristics and their energy systems lead to differences in heat emission contributions from the three components, and their dynamics, for example, in the warehouse models, the envelope component accounts for 90.4%, while it is 12.7% for the large office models; (3) for most building typologies, the climate has a strong impact on heat emissions, for example, buildings with dominant heat emissions from the zone exhaust air and/or the HVAC reject heat, a general decrease in heat emissions in hotter climates is observed, while envelope-dominated buildings show the opposite; and (4) building technologies that reduce energy use in buildings may perform differently in reducing heat emissions. The developed heat emissions calculation method can be adopted in EnergyPlus and most other building energy modeling programs. It can provide dynamic building heat emissions as an input to urban climate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than is currently available, to improve the simulation accuracy of the urban microclimate and capture the urban heat island effect and urban overheating.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Legacy Waste at the Enewetak Atoll

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the central Pacific Ocean ~4,500 km west of Hawaii. The Enewetak Atoll, located in the northwest part of the RMI, was the site for 43 nuclear weapon tests between 1948 and 1958. Fallout and deposition from the tests contaminated the island surfaces, lagoon waters and sediment, and nearby ocean waters at the atoll. In the 1970s, a cleanup effort collected radioactive waste and placed it in the Cactus Crater on Runit Island (also called the Runit Dome). In December 2021, Congress directed the U.S. Department of Energy to study the impacts of climate change on the Runit Dome nuclear waste disposal site. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled a multidisciplinary team of climate scientists, ocean modelers, environmental scientists, and health physicists to assess the likely effects of remaining radionuclides at the Enewetak Atoll. PNNL’s approach focused on effects of tropical cyclones that were postulated to mobilize and transport contaminated lagoon sediments and result in human and biota exposure. PNNL’s study estimated (1) the radionuclide source term, (2) the effects of climate change on severe storms, (3) mobilization and transport of radionuclides, and (4) radiation dose to humans and biota. Radionuclides in the lagoon and/or ocean waters of the Enewetak Atoll were characterized by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in 1972, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in 2015, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018. The RMI Nationwide Radiological Study was conducted in the early 1990s for radionuclides remaining in island soils. The 1972 AEC survey remains the most comprehensive source of radionuclide data on lagoon sediments. Climate change modeling at a regional scale in the central Pacific Ocean is limited. PNNL climate scientists simulated severe historical storms postulated to occur both in a recent climate (2015) and in the future (2090) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, employing a pseudo-global-warming technique. A postulated complete, future failure of the Runit Dome was also considered. PNNL developed a high-resolution regional ocean hydrodynamics model covering the entire RMI extended economic zone using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The FVCOM model was run using global reanalysis data for current climate and WRF-ARW simulation for the future climate. PNNL also developed a radionuclide fate and transport model using the FVCOM Integrated Compartment Model (FVCOM-ICM) to simulate the current and future mobilization and transport of radionuclides sorbed to lagoon sediments and the exchange of radionuclides between the water and sediment. FVCOM-ICM-predicted radionuclide concentrations were then used to estimate radiation dose to humans and biota at all islands of the Enewetak Atoll. Under current climate conditions, annual radiation exposures for the southern islands including Enewetak (Fred) and Medren (Elmer) were below the current U.S. standards. Radiation doses were somewhat elevated starting at Runit Island northward and westward to Enjebi Island (Janet). The islands in the northwest quadrant, particularly Bokoluo (Alice) and Bokombako (Belle), remain relatively contaminated. The islands in the southwestern quadrant have low contamination. The highest contribution to radiation doses comes from consumption of locally grown foods. Two radionuclides, 90Sr and 137Cs, contributed the greatest fraction for most terrestrial foods. In current climate conditions, the storms temporarily increased radionuclide concentrations in the lagoon waters, increasing the radiation dose slightly. In future conditions, doses are expected to be smaller, primarily because of the radioactive decay of the shorter-lived radioisotopes of 90Sr and 137Cs. This could make all islands in the far northwest of the atoll – except Bokombako (Belle) and perhaps Bokoluo (Alice) – suitable for residency. For the f

Prasad, Rajiv↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model for Both Open Ocean and Coastal Waters

Remote sensing of global ocean color is a valuable tool for understanding the ecology and biogeochemistry of the worlds oceans, and provides critical input to our knowledge of the global carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change. Ocean polarized reflectance contains information about the constituents of the upper ocean euphotic zone, such as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), sediments, phytoplankton, and pollutants. In order to retrieve the information on these constituents, remote sensing algorithms typically rely on radiative transfer models to interpret water color or remote-sensing reflectance; however, this can be resource-prohibitive for operational use due to the extensive CPU time involved in radiative transfer solutions. In this work, we report a fast model based on machine learning techniques, called Neural Network Reflectance Prediction Model (NNRPM), which can be used to predict ocean bidirectional polarized reflectance given inherent optical properties of ocean waters. This supervised model is trained using a large volume of data derived from radiative transfer simulations for coupled atmosphere and ocean systems using the successive order of scattering technique (SOS-CAOS). The performance of the model is validated against another large independent test dataset generated from SOS-CAOS. The model is able to predict both polarized and unpolarized reflectances with an absolute error (AE) less than 0.004 for 99% of test cases. We have also shown that the degree of linear polarization (DoLP) for unpolarized incident light can be predicted with an AE less than 0.002 for 99% of test cases. In general, the simulation time of SOS-CAOS depends on optical depth, and required accuracy. When comparing the average speeds of the NNRPM against the SOS-CAOS model for the same parameters, we see that the NNRPM is able to predict the Ocean BRDF 6000 times faster than SOS-CAOS. Both ultraviolet and visible wavelengths are included in the model to help differentiate between dissolved organic material and chlorophyll in the study of the open ocean and the coastal zone. The incorporation of this model into the retrieval algorithm will make the retrieval process more efficient, and thus applicable for operational use with global satellite observations.

radiative transfer↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine"

This archive contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine”, by Reinhardt et al., 2011. Data were collected over one summer season in plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), before climate manipulations began. The experiment was located on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. This data package includes five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, five Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf file, and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editing software (such as Notepad and TextEdit), R, and Microsoft Excel. .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .pdf file can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader or any other compatible file viewing software. The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and shapefiles can be opened using any software compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS.Data archived contain gas exchange and plant physiology measurements, non-structural carbohydrate data, among others. Geospatial files are also provided for additional locational context. The files and their contents in this data package are summarized under "Data Summary" in the included Data User's Guide. All files (excluding geospatial) are available in both Microsoft Excel and in .csv format, and are indicated in the Data Summary list as well.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Climate change is predicted to cause upward shifts in forest tree distributions, which will require seedling recruitment beyond current forest boundaries. However, predicting the likelihood of successful plant establishment beyond current species’ ranges under changing climate is complicated by the interaction of genetic and environmental controls on seedling establishment. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone and examined differences in physiology and morphology between provenances and among sites. Plant dry mass, projected leaf area and shoot:root ratios were 12–40% greater in LO compared with HI seedlings at each elevation. There were no significant changes in these variables among sites except for decreased dry mass of LO seedlings in the alpine site. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration) and conductance increased >2× with elevation for both provenances, and were 35–77% greater in LO seedlings compared with HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. Our results suggest that for P. flexilis seedlings, provenances selected for above-ground growth may outperform those selected for stress resistance in the absence of harsh climatic conditions, even well above the species’ range limits in the alpine zone. This indicates that forest genetics may be important to understanding and managing species’ range adjustments due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, the authors introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and nonorographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. Comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parameterization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations are shown to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. The authors also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Then results are presented where the nonorographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the intertropical convergence zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, a strategy to include these effects in a climate-dependent manner is suggested.

Geller, Marvin A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, we introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and non-orographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. We show comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parametrization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and non-orographic gravity wave parameterizations to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. We also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We then show results where the non-orographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, we suggest a strategy to include these effects in a climate dependent manner.

Geller, Marvin A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep desert aquifers as an archive for Mid- to Late Pleistocene hydroclimate: An example from the southeastern Mediterranean

Many efforts have been made to illuminate the nature of past hydroclimates in semi-arid and arid regions, where current and future shifts in water availability have enormous consequences on human subsistence. Deep desert aquifers, where groundwater is stored for prolonged periods, might serve as a direct record of major paleo-recharge events. To date, groundwater-based paleoclimate reconstructions have mainly focused on a relatively narrow timescale (up to ∼40 kyr), limited by the relatively short half-life of the widely used radiocarbon (5.73 kyr). Here we demonstrate the usage of deep regional aquifers in the arid southeastern Mediterranean as a hydroclimate archive for earlier Mid-to-Late Pleistocene epochs. State-of-the-art dating tools, primarily the 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 kyr), were combined with other atmosphere-derived tracers to illuminate the impact of four distinguishable wetter episodes over the past 400 kyr, with differences in climatic conditions and paleo-recharge locations. Variations in stable water isotope composition suggest moisture transport from more proximal (Mediterranean) and distal (Atlantic) sources to different parts of the region at distinct times. Large variability in the computed noble gas-based recharge temperature (NGT), ranging ~15–30 °C, cannot be explained by climate variations solely, and points to different recharge pathways, including geothermal heating in the deep unsaturated zone and recharge from high-elevation (colder) regions. The obtained groundwater record complements and enhances the interpretation of other terrestrial archives in the arid region, including a contribution of valuable information regarding the moisture source origin as reflected in the deuterium-excess values, which is unattainable from the common practice analysis of calcitic cave deposits. We conclude that similar applications in other deep (hundred-m-order) regional groundwater systems (e.g., the Sahara desert aquifers) can significantly advance our understanding of long-term (up to 1 Myr) paleo-hydroclimate in arid regions, including places where no terrestrial remnants, such as cave, lake, and spring sediments, are available.

Atom Trap Trace Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery to Analyze Biogeochemical Constituents in the Waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and Beyond

The ocean's coastal zones play a key role in our planet's health and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Building on the success of NASA satellite imagery in mapping land cover changes around the globe in response to climate change, deforestation, and natural disasters, I have worked to determine how aquatic reflectance images from the Landsat 8 sensor could be correlated with biogeochemical constituents within the waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and California coastline. By analyzing Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the years 2013-2020 in collaboration with data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), and universities involved with the Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP), I investigated which areas of the San Francisco Bay and California coastline demonstrated significant correlations with values extracted from the satellite imagery. Using a Chlorophyll Index (CI) ratio calculated from two Landsat 8 satellite reflectance bands, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the CI and calculated oxygen, suspended particulate matter, and silicate from several USGS sampling points. In contrast, there is a significant negative correlation between the CI and salinity, nitrite, and phosphate at those same locations. Moreover, large suspected harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the California coastline seen in the Landsat 8 imagery were corroborated with HAB data from various institutions. Understanding the effectiveness of Landsat 8 aquatic reflectance images will allow scientists to predict HABs and other nutrient cycling that may be harmful to aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Landsat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observationally-Based Determination of the Arctic Sea Ice-Cloud Feedback Since 2000: Isolating the Arctic Cloud Response to Sea Ice Loss

Arctic sea ice responds to and drives Arctic climate change. The interactions between Arctic sea ice and clouds represent a mechanism through which sea ice can drive climate change. We composite active remote sensing satellite cloud properties for ice-free, marginal ice zone (MIZ), and ice-covered surfaces during MIZ crossing events to investigate the influence of the transition from an ice-covered to an ice-free surface on low-level clouds. We demonstrate that the event-based methodology controls for large-scale meteorological factors and isolates the sea ice effect on clouds. We find larger cloud fraction and total water content below ~1.5 km over ice-free relative to ice-covered surfaces during non-summer months, indicating a low-level cloud sensitivity to Arctic sea ice decline. During summer, results show larger cloud fraction and water content over ice-free surfaces, however the differences are statistically indistinguishable. Evidence is provided that atmospheric thermodynamic profile differences cause the cloud property differences, namely that ice-free footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their ice-covered counterparts. Ice-free and ice-covered surface cloud property differences scale with surface temperature differences such that cloud property differences are only found in the presence of a surface temperature difference. We conclude that surface temperature differences modulate the cloud response to sea ice loss through influences on surface turbulent fluxes and lower tropospheric stability. The results imply a positive non-summer sea ice-cloud feedback and that up to a 0.02 cloud fraction and 0.05 g m 3 total water content increase in fall are due to the observed sea ice decline.

Patrick C Taylor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating the Arctic Cloud-Sea Ice Feedback With Observations during the EOS Period

Patrick C. Taylor↗