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At least 577 records · Page 32

Nonlinear encoding in diffractive information processing using linear optical materials

Nonlinear encoding of optical information can be achieved using various forms of data representation. Here, we analyze the performances of different nonlinear information encoding strategies that can be employed in diffractive optical processors based on linear materials and shed light on their utility and performance gaps compared to the state-of-the-art digital deep neural networks. For a comprehensive evaluation, we used different datasets to compare the statistical inference performance of simpler-to-implement nonlinear encoding strategies that involve, e.g., phase encoding, against data repetition-based nonlinear encoding strategies. We show that data repetition within a diffractive volume (e.g., through an optical cavity or cascaded introduction of the input data) causes the loss of the universal linear transformation capability of a diffractive optical processor. Therefore, data repetition-based diffractive blocks cannot provide optical analogs to fully connected or convolutional layers commonly employed in digital neural networks. However, they can still be effectively trained for specific inference tasks and achieve enhanced accuracy, benefiting from the nonlinear encoding of the input information. Our results also reveal that phase encoding of input information without data repetition provides a simpler nonlinear encoding strategy with comparable statistical inference accuracy to data repetition-based diffractive processors. Our analyses and conclusions would be of broad interest to explore the push-pull relationship between linear material-based diffractive optical systems and nonlinear encoding strategies in visual information processors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Achieving Runtime State Verification Assurance in Critical Cyber-Physical Infrastructures

Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) are an essential backbone of national critical infrastructures. They help monitor and control crucial cyber-enabled services such as energy generation. Commonly ICPS monitors the physical process through Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. The SCADA ecosystem takes critical real-time and future system operational decisions based on the runtime state behavior of field sensors. Traditional SCADA systems use legacy and insecure communication protocols such as the Modbus protocol that lack adequate security mechanisms to provide robust runtime state behavior assurance of constrained field sensors. Therefore, constrained field sensors are commonly vulnerable to standard semantic attacks that gradually change the behavior state of infected devices. This paper discusses process integrity assurance techniques necessary to enhance the security of behavior-based protocols such as the Modbus protocol. The Runtime State Verification (RSV) protocol proposed in this paper aims to address semantic attacks in the SCADA ecosystem by integrating behavior-based Mandatory Results Automata (MRA) and a Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) network. The RSV protocol provides high process integrity assurance through enhanced behavior-based MRA suitable for the constrained field devices. A proof of concept of the RSV protocol has been evaluated in an emulated water-tube boiler. Preliminary evaluations of the RSV protocol aimed to measure the efficiency of the proposed protocol by monitoring an Combustion Efficiency (CE) process necessary to preserve optimal combustion, thus minimizing costs and future maintenance of water-tube boilers. We analyze the overall network overhead and latency of the proposed RSV protocol by evaluating the HLF network performance and comparing the proposed RSV protocol with the state-ofart BloSPAI protocol. Through the preliminary evaluations of the proposed RSV protocol, this paper demonstrates that the proposed RSV protocol overcomes the shortcomings and network overhead of the BloSPAI protocol by integrating behavior-based authentication through novel MRAs and HLF networks.

Rivera, Abel Gomez↗

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dispatch Manager for NEML2 Constitutive Model Calculations Embedded in MOOSE

This report describes the extended capabilities of the NEML2 constitutive modeling library, including a flexible and efficient work dispatching system designed to leverage both CPU and GPU resources. This enhancement addresses one of the primary computational challenges in large-scale simulations: the ability to distribute and execute batches of material model evaluations across heterogeneous computing devices. The new dispatch system introduces a modular set of dispatcher and scheduler classes that coordinate the flow of data and execution between devices. The dispatcher is responsible for efficiently packaging work, managing device-specific memory operations, and synchronizing results. This modularity allows for extensibility, making it straightforward to integrate additional computing backends in the future. From an implementation standpoint, the dispatcher system interfaces seamlessly with NEML2's existing models. They handle device-aware tensor operations, optimize memory transfers, and support asynchronous execution when applicable. This design ensures that batches of material points can be evaluated concurrently, substantially improving throughput compared to previous single-device or serial implementations. These improvements not only enhance the raw performance of NEML2 but also improve its usability in multiscale and high-fidelity simulations, where the simultaneous evaluation of large material point batches is critical. Benchmarks included in the report demonstrate the system’s scalability, highlighting its effectiveness when leveraging modern GPU architectures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Autonomous Driving in CARLA

There has been a great deal of recent advancements in end-to-end imitation and reinforcement learning for self-driving vehicles. Despite this, there is a severe lack of standardized metrics for evaluating the performance of autonomous self-driving agents. Existing metrics are generally lacking in their ability to capture a wide range of driving behaviors and compare the severity of different failure cases. In this work, we introduce the Quantitative Evaluation for Driving metric, or QED, which assigns a quantitative score from 0-100 that captures the quality of driving for any driving agent. Our QED metric assesses different aspects of driving behavior including the ability to stay in the center of the lane, avoid weaving and erratic behavior, follow the speed limit, and avoid collisions, and it can be used under a wide range of driving scenarios. To show the effectiveness of our QED metric, we compare the scores generated by QED against scores assigned by human evaluators on a total of 30 different drivers and 6 different towns in the CARLA driving simulator. In ``easy'' evaluation scenarios, where it is relatively straightforward to distinguish better drivers from worse drivers, QED attains an average Pearson correlation of 0.96 and average Spearman correlation of 0.97 when compared against human evaluators. In ``hard'' evaluation scenarios, where it is far more ambiguous how to rank/score different types of bad driving behavior, QED attains an average Pearson correlation of 0.82 and average Spearman correlation of 0.75 when compared against human evaluators, which are both slighter higher than when we compare human evaluators against each other. While QED may not capture every characteristic that defines good driving, we consider it an important foundation for reproducibility and standardization in the community.

Gao, Shang↗

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Overview of Nuclear Data Measurement and Analysis at RPI [Slides]

This presentation discusses the experimental, simulation, and nuclear data methods that were validated for the RPI γ-Multiplicity Detector. When the neutron capture γ-cascade data is well-known, the γ-emission spectra can be accurately calculated using the modified simulation tools. The RPI γ-Multiplicity Detector system is now ready for analysis and recommendations for isotopes with deficiencies in γ-ray data. The presentation also discusses future work which includes developing a method for analyzing and adjusting nuclear data for 59 Co, 55 Mn and other measured isotopes including 181 Ta. Additionally, future work includes comparing experimental γ-emission spectra with MCNP-6.2/DICEBOX simulations for 238 U and 235 U. In summation, new capture and transmission measurements for 54 Fe will help improve resonance parameter evaluation. Neutron capture gamma cascade spectra and yields were measured in the resolved resonance region and compared to evaluations. In addition, the pulsed neutron die-away method was developed as a tool to provide data for validation of TSLs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

EPIsembleVis: A geo-visual analysis and comparison of the prediction ensembles of multiple COVID-19 models

In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Environmentally improved CdTe photovoltaic recycling through novel technologies and facility location strategies

Abstract Photovoltaic waste is projected to reach up to 78 million tons across globally dispersed locations through 2050. Current recycling infrastructure is inadequate to process these waste volumes responsibly. This necessitates commercializing novel, environmentally advantageous photovoltaic recycling technologies that improve upon incumbent industrial operations. CdTe photovoltaic recycling is a promising candidate for improvements as 25,000 tons of spent modules are recycled worldwide annually. This paper evaluates the operational performance and compares six novel technologies, the incumbent technology used in industry and one technology which extends the incumbent process across ten environmental impact categories. The tradeoff between incurring a transportation burden (ship or road) to recycle in a large‐scale centralized facility with a higher operational efficiency and avoiding transportation by recycling in a small‐scale decentralized facility with a lower operational efficiency is evaluated. Thermal delamination to eliminate the ethylene vinyl acetate and separate the photovoltaic glass panels is preferable to the incumbent mechanical process across nine environmental impact categories and decreases the climate‐change impact of CdTe photovoltaic recycling by 23%. Bath and probe sonication are ineffective for delamination, and the use of organic solvents is more environmentally burdensome than the incumbent mechanical process. Centralized recycling with shipping is environmentally preferable than with road‐based transportation. For every 100‐km increase in road transportation from the decentralized to the centralized facility, the inventory requirement in the centralized facility should be 6% lower than the decentralized facility for centralized recycling to have a lower climate‐change impact than decentralized recycling. The corresponding value for shipping is 0.4%.

Ravikumar, Dwarakanath↗

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Irradiation on Corrosion Performance of Hybrid Organic/Inorganic Coatings on Austenitic Stainless Steel

The effects of gamma radiation on the performance of two corrosion-resistant coatings applied to stainless-steel 304L (SS304L) surfaces are presented. Specifically, the ability of the coatings to mitigate corrosion of SS304L surfaces as a function of the dose received (0–1300 Mrad) and dose rate (176 compared to 1054 rad/s) is evaluated using electrochemical methods, spectroscopy, and microscopy. Coating A, an organic/inorganic hybrid coating consisting of a two-part silica ceramic component and a polymer linker was evaluated in comparison to Coating B, which utilized Coating A as a topcoat for a commercial, off-the-shelf, Zn-rich primer. Post irradiation, Coating A demonstrated some corrosion protection following exposure to low levels of gamma radiation, but coating degradation occurred with an increased exposure dose and resulted in isolated regions of corrosion initiation. For Coating B, greater corrosion resistance was observed compared to Coating A due to the sacrificial nature of the Zn at elevated doses of gamma radiation. No effect of the dose rate (for the single dose examined) was observed for either coating. It is proposed for Coating B that as the polymer coating thermally degrades above 250 °C (bond scission of the polymer occurs), the remaining Zinc layer adhered to the SS304L post-irradiation enables enhanced corrosion resistance as compared to Coating A, which displays solely polymer degradation. The results presented herein establish an understanding of coating behavior with radiation exposure, specifically the relationship between corrosion coating performance and radiation dose, and can inform ageing and lifetime management for various applications.

degradation↗

Advancing material modeling in hydrocodes using a concurrent finite-element and molecular dynamics multiscale framework

We present a multiscale simulation framework that couples the finite-element method with molecular dynamics. Bypassing traditional equations of state (EOS) by using in-line atomistic simulations, the method offers the advantage of incorporating detailed microscale physics not easily represented with coarse-grained models. Coupling consistency with the continuum code is ensured through the use of lifting and restriction operators, in line with heterogeneous multiscale methods. The concurrent continuum-atomistic framework is validated through comparison with experimental results and conventional EOS models, and demonstrated in a shock-driven hydrodynamic flow simulation under extreme conditions. We further evaluate the framework's usability by comparing it to state-of-the-art EOS models of deuterium. A computational performance study reveals that the atomistic EOS evaluation is a feasible alternative to conventional approaches, and demonstrates a weak scaling of 99% efficiency. These results highlight the framework's potential for large-scale multiscale modeling across a broad range of materials and conditions.

Computer science↗

An iron evaluation story: from TALYS model parameters to validation on the ASPIS benchmark with the Monte-Carlo code TRIPOLI-4

Iron is a widespread structural material in nuclear applications. However some benchmark studies show that for many libraries, including TENDL-2019, producing good iron evaluations is still an open challenge. This work aims at improving TENDL-2019 {sup 56}Fe and {sup 54}Fe evaluations through feedbacks from experimental data and Monte Carlo results of the iron benchmark ASPIS. Part of the T6 code infrastructure was used to produce the evaluations. In the new evaluations, particular attention to resonance parameters and formalism was paid to address the importance of elastic scattering. The total inelastic scattering and inelastic continuum cross sections were shaped by modifying the input parameters of TALYS, one of the T6 codes. Additionally, it was necessary to normalise some reaction channels to those of JENDL-4.0. With the new files ASPIS results, obtained with the Monte Carlo code TRIPOLI-4, improved noticeably compared to TENDL 2019. The evaluations and parameter setting modifications are to be included into TENDL-2021. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fine-scale evaluation of two standard 16S rRNA gene amplicon primer pairs for analysis of total prokaryotes and archaeal nitrifiers in differently managed soils

The advance of high-throughput molecular biology tools allows in-depth profiling of microbial communities in soils, which possess a high diversity of prokaryotic microorganisms. Amplicon-based sequencing of 16S rRNA genes is the most common approach to studying the richness and composition of soil prokaryotes. To reliably detect different taxonomic lineages of microorganisms in a single soil sample, an adequate pipeline including DNA isolation, primer selection, PCR amplification, library preparation, DNA sequencing, and bioinformatic post-processing is required. Besides DNA sequencing quality and depth, the selection of PCR primers and PCR amplification reactions arguably have the largest influence on the results. This study tested the performance and potential bias of two primer pairs, i.e., 515F (Parada)-806R (Apprill) and 515F (Parada)-926R (Quince) in the standard pipelines of 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing protocol developed by the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP), against shotgun metagenome-based 16S rRNA gene reads. The evaluation was conducted using five differently managed soils. We observed a higher richness of soil total prokaryotes by using reverse primer 806R compared to 926R, contradicting to in silico evaluation results. Both primer pairs revealed various degrees of taxon-specific bias compared to metagenome-derived 16S rRNA gene reads. Nonetheless, we found consistent patterns of microbial community variation associated with different land uses, irrespective of primers used. Total microbial communities, as well as ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA), the predominant ammonia oxidizers in these soils, shifted along with increased soil pH due to agricultural management. In the unmanaged low pH plot abundance of AOA was dominated by the acid-tolerant NS-Gamma clade, whereas limed agricultural plots were dominated by neutral-alkaliphilic NS-Delta/NS-Alpha clades. This study stresses how primer selection influences community composition and highlights the importance of primer selection for comparative and integrative studies, and that conclusions must be drawn with caution if data from different sequencing pipelines are to be compared.

16S rRNA gene amplicon Illumina sequencing↗

Updates and Validation for the n+ 63,65 Cu Cross Sections [Abstract]

The neutron induced total, elastic, and capture cross sections of 63,65 Cu isotopes were selected for evaluation in the resolved and unresolved resonance energy ranges by the National Criticality Safety Program to resolve discrepancies related to benchmark performance. This is especially evident for the series of ZEUS benchmarks in which copper is used as a reflector. Because copper is also used as structural material in both fission and fusion reactors, the need to address benchmark discrepancies linked to nuclear data deficiencies is a task of primary importance. The aim of this work is to describe the steps of evaluation work towards a consistent improvement of the benchmark performance. The R-matrix analysis with the SAMMY code focused on the 63 Cu(n,γ) reaction channel between 100-300 keV coupled to unresolved resonance region parameters up to 650 keV to fit average cross section data from a recent experiment. Due to the high sensitivity of many benchmarks to elastic scattering angular distribution data, especially for the 65 Cu isotope, the impact of these data was tested by generating Legendre coefficients from both resonance parameters and the Hauser-Feshbach model. Guided by the findings of Shaw et al., the performance of the current evaluation for 65 Cu was compared to that of ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 by testing the reactivity coefficients corresponding to the validation suite of experimental criticality benchmarks for thermal, intermediate, and fast systems taken from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments Project Handbook. The benchmark performance is especially sensitive to 63 Cu(n,γ) and 65 Cu elastic scattering for neutron energies in the 100–500 keV region, whereas 100 keV is the upper limit of the resolved resonance region in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluations for 63,65 Cu. The results highlight the need to handle the transition from the resolved resonance region to the high energy region carefully.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Binder-Coated Carbon Cloth Electrodes for All-Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries

Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are a promising solution for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into the existing power grid. However, enhancing the electrochemical performance of VRFBs is critical for their widespread adoption in grid-scale energy storage. This study investigates the impact of adding a porous binder to a carbon-cloth electrode, with a focus on optimizing thermal activation conditions. The electrochemical performance of the binder-coated electrodes compared to uncoated electrodes is evaluated through electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, polarization curve measurements, and charge-discharge cycling. The surface morphology and structural integrity of the binder-coated electrodes at each activation stage are examined using various material characterization techniques to assess the effects of thermal activation. The results are benchmarked against the experiments using non-coated electrodes to determine the performance improvements offered by the binder coating. Notably, the study reveals that binder-coated electrodes exhibit significantly lower resistance and improved efficiency compared to their uncoated counterparts, with optimal activation conditions enhancing performance metrics crucial for VRFB applications. These findings provide valuable insights for further optimizing electrode design and activation strategies, advancing the development of more efficient VRFB systems for large-scale energy storage.

Caiado, Ashley A.↗

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗