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At least 577 records · Page 32

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NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Digital Twin Technologies for Climate Projections

Climate projections are increasingly needed for adaptation, climate resilience and related decision making. However, existing projections have systematic biases, are limited in scope, and are not readily available for most potential users. While the ideal of an observational data-driven ‘digital twin’ for climate is initially attractive, there is only a very limited set of climate data available with which to train such a tool. Nonetheless, we are confident that there is a role for ‘digital twin technologies’ in removing biases, increasing computational efficiency, expanding scenarios and data accessibility.

digital twins↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate Scenarios and Reality

Progress on the important issue of climate change requires a framework for evaluating the likely consequences of different courses of action. Science can powerfully inform public decisions on energy systems, infrastructure, and economic policy when researchers explore, using the best available evidence, a range of possible futures using emissions scenarios. The process of constructing, describing, and using these scenarios is challenging for many reasons. The continued evolution and improvement of emissions scenarios is an important element of the future of climate-change research. But in “How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality” (Issues, Summer 2021), Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie are wildly off base in declaring that the “misuse of scenarios in climate research has become pervasive and consequential—so much so that we view it as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far.”

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗

NASA NTRS1975

Climatic change on Mars and Earth

Work on climatic changes of Mars is reviewed and related to terrestrial problems. In particular the dust storms of Mars are discussed since these represent the only global climatic change which has been scientifically observed. The channels of Mars have provoked studies of climatic change and these are summarized together with polar laminae as a climatic change indicator.

Toon, O. B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Mt. Agung eruption as a confirmation of the effect of atmospheric radiative perturbations on climate

The effects of the 1963 Mt. Agung (Bali) volcanic eruption are studied with respect to the response of the climate system to global radiative perturbations. Volcanic aerosols, spread globally by stratospheric winds, cause a perturbation characterized by a reasonably well known forcing function. Since the climatic response to a large eruption should be pronounced, these phenomena might provide a means to test the validity of climate models. The Mt. Agung eruption is described, and the atmospheric thermal response is calculated. The magnitude, sign, and time delay of temperature changes computed with a simple one-dimensional climate model for both the stratosphere and troposphere are in agreement with the observed temperature changes.

Hansen, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Internally and externally caused climate change

A numerical climate model is used to simulate climate change forced only by random fluctuations of the atmospheric heat transport. This short-term natural variability of the atmosphere is shown to be a possible 'cause' not only of the variability of the annual world average temperature about its mean, but also long-term excursions from the mean. Various external causes of climate change are also tested with the model and the results compared with observations for the past 100 years. Volcanic dust is shown to have been an important cause of climate change, while the effects of sunspot-related solar constant variation and anthropogenic forcing are not evident.

Robock, A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of a coupled aerosol formation: Radiative transfer model to climatic studies of aerosols

A sophisticated one dimensional physical-chemical model of the formation and evolution of stratospheric aerosols was used to predict the size and number concentration of the stratospheric aerosols as functions of time and altitude following: a large volcanic eruption; increased addition of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) or sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the troposphere; increased supersonic aircraft (SST) flights in the stratosphere; and, large numbers of space shuttle (SS) flights through the stratosphere. A radiative-convective one dimensional climate sensitivity study, using the results of the aerosol formation model, was performed to assess the ground level climatic significance of these perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer. Volcanic eruptions and large OCS or SO2 increases could cause significant climatic changes. Currently projected SS launches and moderate fleets of SST's are unlikely to upset the stratospheric aerosol layer enough to significantly impact climate.

Toon, O. B.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Climate diagnostics

Diagnoses of climate fluctuations is examined emphasizing the assemblage of a host of observations, to develop a clearer physical picture of the nature and causal interrelationships of the climate events. Development of better statistical methods for making predictions of climate fluctuations and improving numerical climate prediction models is considered along with obtaining data for areas for which meager records exist such as the tropics and the southern hemisphere. The major circulation systems in the tropics, energy transports by the oceans and atmosphere, and the reflected or absorbed solar radiation values from the earth's surface are among the phenomena to be studied.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1978

NASA and the U.S. climate program - A problem in data management

NASA's contribution to the total data base for the National Climate Plan will be to produce climate data sets from its experimental space observing systems and to maximize the value of these data for climate analysis and prediction. Validated data sets will be provided to NOAA for inclusion into their overall diagnostic data base. NASA data management for the Climate Plan will involve: (1) cataloging and retrieval of large integrated and distributed data sets upon user demand, and (2) the storage equivalent of 100,000 digital data tapes. It will be the largest, most complex data system ever developed by NASA

Quann, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Climatic change on the terrestrial planets

Observational data related to climatic change on Venus, earth and Mars are reviewed. The channel features on Mars suggest an early to intermediate epoch of warmer and wetter climate, while the layered polar deposits imply more recent periodic variations in climate. A more reducing atmosphere, which would have produced an enhanced greenhouse effect, may have been responsible for warmer periods in the early history of Mars and earth. Detailed calculations relating atmospheric pressure and composition to the temperature state of Mars are presented. The possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect on Venus resulting in the emplacement of volatiles entirely in the atmosphere is also examined. Periodic variations in orbital eccentricity and axial obliquity may have contributed to alternating glacial and interglacial periods on earth. Mechanisms accounting for the laminated terrain of Mars, and the influence of Martian tectonic distortions on the planet's climate also receive attention.

Pollack, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Guidelines for the air-sea interaction special study: An element of the NASA climate research program, JPL/SIO workshop report

A program in the area of air sea interactions is introduced. A space capability is discussed for global observations of climate parameters which will contribute to the understanding of the processes which influence climate and its predictability. The following recommendations are some of the suggestions made for air sea interaction studies: (1) a major effort needs to be devoted to the preparation of space based climatic data sets; (2) NASA should create a group or center for climatic data analysis due to the substantial long term effort that is needed in research and development; (3) funding for the analyses of existing data sets should be augmented and continued beyond the termination of present programs; (4) NASA should fund studies in universities, research institutions and governments' centers; and (5) the planning for an air sea interaction mission should be an early task.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols

It is shown quantitatively how radiative climatic forcing by aerosols depends on the physical properties of the aerosols. The special case of atmospheric aerosols produced by volcanic explosions is considered, and evidence is presented which indicates that even the simple climate models available today may be able to capture some of the basic effects of aerosols on global climate. Possible effects of anthropogenic aerosols are briefly examined. It is noted that additional evidence for the significant influence of aerosols on climate may be found in data obtained from recent spacecraft missions to Venus and Mars.

Hansen, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Weather and climate

Highlights of recent progress and the directions of future advances in the application of space observations to weather and climate are reviewed. In mesometeorology and severe storms, satellite stereography of cloud topography and temperature profiling from GOES-VAS promise dramatic developments in both nowcasting and prediction. In global weather, the initial results from the year long Global Weather Experiment conclusively demonstrate the enhanced forecast skill emanating from the use of satellite data, especially cloud track winds and temperature profiles. In climate, empirical studies and numerical experiments point to the feasibility of useful climate predictions on monthly and seasonal time scales. They also indicate the kinds of surface boundary conditions to which climate is sensitive and which need to be observed from space.

Atlas, D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Short, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Pilot climate data system: A state-of-the-art capability in scientific data management

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) was developed by the Information Management Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to manage a large collection of climate-related data of interest to the research community. The PCDS now provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, access methods, graphical displays and statistical calculations for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Data manipulation capabilities were developed to permit researchers to easily combine or compare data. The current capabilities of the PCDS include many tools for the statistical survey of climate data. A climate researcher can examine any data set of interest via flexible utilities to create a variety of two- and three-dimensional displays, including vector plots, scatter diagrams, histograms, contour plots, surface diagrams and pseudo-color images. The graphics and statistics subsystems employ an intermediate data storage format which is data-set independent. Outside of the graphics system there exist other utilities to select, filter, list, compress, and calculate time-averages and variances for any data of interest. The PCDS now fully supports approximately twenty different data sets and is being used on a trial basis by several different in-house research grounds.

Smith, P. H.↗