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NASA NTRS2024

Aerocapture: An Enabling Technology for Flagship-Class Uranus Orbiter and Probe Mission

Introduction: The current decadal survey published by the National Academies of Sciences has informed National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prioritize the study of the Ice Giants, especially Uranus. To gather the required data that addresses the science questions raised in this survey, a mission to Uranus with an orbiter and atmospheric probe must be designed. The Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) study, which the survey identified as the flagship mission of this decade, proposes a 2031 launch to take advantage of a Jupiter fly-by and utilizes a fully propulsive orbit insertion design with an Earth-to-Uranus transit times ranging from 13 to 15 years. This fully propulsive orbit insertion at Uranus will be very fuel expensive (wet mass percentages of around 60-70\%) thereby leaving less mass for the scientific payload and additional planetary probes. In addition, scientists are more interested in visiting Uranus before 2049, when the Spring Equinox will occur, as it allows studying Uranus seasons not seen during Voyager 2's flyby in 1987. A NASA Flagship-Class mission would require at least 10 years of lead time prior to launch thereby making the 2031 launch to take advantage of the Jupiter fly-by extremely challenging. The consequence of missing the Jupiter fly-by and launching in the late 2030s is the challenge of a fully-propulsive mission like UOP to have a feasible alternative interplanetary trajectory that reaches Uranus before 2050. As an alternative, to address the shortcomings of the fully propulsive mission, one can design a mission to Uranus using aerocapture. What is aerocapture: Aerocapture is an atmospheric maneuver that uses aerodynamic forces generated by flight within a planetary atmosphere to decelerate and achieve orbit insertion. Using aerocapture allows one to provide the change in velocity (Delta V) needed to slow down from the approach hyperbolic trajectory to achieve the desired captured orbit around the target planet using aerodynamic forces of the vehicle (lift and drag). Using aerodynamic forces instead of fully-propulsive maneuvers results in significant savings in the fuel. Furthermore, aerocapture can also allow one to consider interplanetary trajectories with higher approach hyperbolic velocities, thus reducing the mission transit times. Aerocapture as an enabling technology: To use aerocapture as an enabling technology for the Uranus exploration mission, one would require an integrated system-level design, including a Thermal Protection System (TPS), hardware needed for aerodynamic modulation, and autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) systems. Aerocapture has yet to be demonstrated, despite considering it for several past missions. Recent advancements in TPS and GNC capabilities show the potential for using rigid, heritage entry vehicle configurations already flown at other planetary bodies for Uranus aerocapture. Aerocapture can be a robust technology that can deliver spacecraft to Uranus science orbits while substantially increasing on-orbit payload mass (more than 40\%) that can enable robust atmospheric entry probes. Additionally, the aerocapture maneuver would reduce the interplanetary transit time by 2–5 years (15-30\%) relative to fully-propulsive orbit insertion. Recent work has shown that one can conduct a flagship-class mission in a shorter period than fully-propulsive missions if using aerocapture. What does aerocapture bring in for a Uranus Mission: Using aerocapture for a Uranus orbiter and atmospheric probe mission can provide one with considerable propellant savings. Spacecraft in interplanetary trajectories to Uranus typically need an Delta V in orders of kilometers per second to insert into science orbit. One would require thousands of kilograms of fuel to achieve such a Delta V using a traditional fully propulsive maneuver, leaving less mass for payload during the mission launch. Aerocapture can reduce the propulsion needs by dissipating energy in the sizable atmosphere of Uranus without a significant mass increase due to the need for an aeroshell. One can use the mass savings achieved using the aerocapture to reduce the launch vehicle requirements. In addition, one can also have additional science instruments on the orbiter or create a robust instrumentation suite on an atmospheric probe that can significantly increase the science outcome of the Uranus exploration mission. Furthermore, since aerocapture performance is relatively insensitive to increases in hyperbolic excess velocity, one can design the interplanetary trajectory to arrive at Uranus faster, reducing the interplanetary transit time and operations cost. All these savings, achieved using aerocapture, could help fit a larger class mission, such as the Uranus mission within a smaller capital, e.g., a Flagship-class orbiter mission in a New Frontiers class capital. Summary: This talk will provide an overview of how aerocapture can enable the Uranus exploration mission. Specifically, this talk will discuss the latest advancements made in the Uranus aerocapture study, such as investigating interplanetary trajectories with higher hyperbolic approach velocities and their implications on the aero heating and the TPS design, incorporating FNPAG (an advanced numerical-predictor guidance) and comparison of multiple navigation approaches. In addition, this talk will focus on mechanical design that can house more than one atmospheric probe and the six degrees of freedom simulation of aerocapture at Uranus. Findings from a recent NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded activity studying the aerocapture as an enabling technology for a Uranus orbiter will be presented. Using the science payload recommended by the Decadal Survey for Uranus exploration, this work shows many improvements over the baseline fully-propulsive mission. These improvements include a shorter cruise phase, flexibility in launch opportunities late into the 2030s while reaching Uranus before the 2050 equinox for the desired science opportunities, and lower propellant mass needs. This talk will highlight how aerocapture can be utilized for Uranus science orbit insertion using a lower-risk, heritage entry vehicle configuration used extensively as a Mars entry, descent, and landing vehicle. Furthermore, this talk will explore how the demonstration of aerocapture at Earth can benefit the aerocapture-enabled Uranus mission.

Aerocapture↗

DOE OSTI2011

Advanced Hydrogen Liquefaction Process

The project identified and quantified ways to reduce the cost of hydrogen liquefaction, and reduce the cost of hydrogen distribution. The goal was to reduce the power consumption by 20% and then to reduce the capital cost. Optimizing the process, improving process equipment, and improving ortho-para conversion significantly reduced the power consumption of liquefaction, but by less than 20%. Because the efficiency improvement was less than the target, the program was stopped before the capital cost was addressed. These efficiency improvements could provide a benefit to the public to improve the design of future hydrogen liquefiers. The project increased the understanding of hydrogen liquefaction by modeling different processes and thoroughly examining ortho-para separation and conversion. The process modeling provided a benefit to the public because the project incorporated para hydrogen into the process modeling software, so liquefaction processes can be modeled more accurately than using only normal hydrogen. Adding catalyst to the first heat exchanger, a simple method to reduce liquefaction power, was identified, analyzed, and quantified. The demonstrated performance of ortho-para separation is sufficient for at least one identified process concept to show reduced power cost when compared to hydrogen liquefaction processes using conventional ortho-para conversion. The impact of improved ortho-para conversion can be significant because ortho para conversion uses about 20-25% of the total liquefaction power, but performance improvement is necessary to realize a substantial benefit. Most of the energy used in liquefaction is for gas compression. Improvements in hydrogen compression will have a significant impact on overall liquefier efficiency. Improvements to turbines, heat exchangers, and other process equipment will have less impact.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2011

Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

Bio-gasification↗

DOE OSTI2012

DOE Commercial Building Energy Asset Rating: Market Research and Program Direction

This paper presents the development of a voluntary energy asset rating system, to evaluate the physical characteristics and as-built energy efficiency of new and existing commercial buildings. The energy asset rating system is intended to enable commercial building stakeholders to directly compare expected as-built energy performance among similar buildings and to analyze the potential for capital improvements to increase energy efficiency cost-effectively. Market research has been performed to understand the market demand and how to communicate energy and cost savings to owners, investors, financiers, and others to overcome market barriers and motivate capital investment in building energy efficiency. The paper discusses the findings of the market research. Building owners are concerned about redundancy, conflicting requirements, and cost. They also pointed out a data gap and desire a rating program that identifies improvement opportunities. A meaningful linkage between the energy asset rating and other rating systems is essential. Based on the findings, criteria for a successful energy asset rating program have been developed to direct the program design, including validity of ratings, actionable, cost effective recommendations, effective quality control, integration with other rating systems, and necessary training and education. In addition to the rating system, an asset rating tool is being developed to reduce cost and increase standardization, allowing for consistent and reliable comparisons among and between buildings. The asset rating tool is the first step in the process by which owners can enter information about their building structure and receive information on the building’s modeled performance and recommended efficiency measures.

commercial building, energy asset rating, market r↗

DOE OSTI2014

Land-Based Wind Plant Balance-of-System Cost Drivers and Sensitivities (Poster)

With Balance of System (BOS) costs contributing up to 30% of the installed capital cost, it is fundamental to understand the BOS costs for wind projects as well as potential cost trends for larger turbines. NREL developed a BOS model using project cost estimates developed by industry partners. Aspects of BOS covered include engineering and permitting, foundations for various wind turbines, transportation, civil work, and electrical arrays. The data introduce new scaling relationships for each BOS component to estimate cost as a function of turbine parameters and size, project parameters and size, and geographic characteristics. Based on the new BOS model, an analysis to understand the non‐turbine wind plant costs associated with turbine sizes ranging from 1-6 MW and wind plant sizes ranging from 100-1000 MW has been conducted. This analysis establishes a more robust baseline cost estimate, identifies the largest cost components of wind project BOS, and explores the sensitivity of the capital investment cost and the levelized cost of energy to permutations in each BOS cost element. This presentation shows results from the model that illustrate the potential impact of turbine size and project size on the cost of energy from US wind plants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Novel Flow Sheet for Low Energy CO 2 Capture Enabled by Biocatalyst Delivery System

This report documents a preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) for processes utilizing Akermin’s second generation biocatalyst delivery system to enhance AKM24, a non- volatile salt solution for CO 2 capture. Biocatalyst enhanced AKM24 offers the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture in flue gas applications due to its improved equilibrium and stoichiometric properties that result in double the absorption capacity relative to previously demonstrated biocatalyst enhanced solvents. The study assumes a new supercritical pulverized coal fired power plant with a net output of 550 MWe after 90% CO 2 capture and uses the June 2011 cost basis (August 2012 update of Bituminous Baseline Study, or BBS). Power plant modeling, capital cost review, and economic calculations were provided by WorleyParsons. Rate-based CO2 capture process modeling and equipment sizing was performed by Akermin using AspenPlus® V8.4, customized to accurately predict thermodynamics, kinetics, and physical properties of the AKM-24 solvent based on available laboratory data. Equipment capital costs were estimated using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer™ which compared well with published baseline cost estimates. Quotes of equipment costs and power consumption for vacuum blower and CO 2 compression equipment were also provided by Man Diesel & Turbo. Three process scenarios were examined for Akermin biocatalyst enhanced solvent systems including: Case-1A: an absorption-desorption system operated with a reboiler pressure of 0.16 bara (60°C); Case-2A: an absorption-desorption system with moderate vacuum assisted regeneration at 0.40 bara (80°C); and finally, Case-2B: a conventional absorption-desorption system with near atmospheric pressure regeneration at 1.07 bara (105°C). The estimated increases in cost of electricity (ICOE) for these cases were $58.1/MWh, $47.3/MWh and $46.4/MWh, respectively. Case 2B had the best results for this analysis achieving an estimated 30% reduction in ICOE relative to the NETL Case 12 (v2) baseline of $66.3/MWh ICOE. Likewise, Case-2B achieved capture costs of $53.0/tCO2 and 65.7/tCO 2 avoided, which equates to 20.2% and 31.4% savings relative to the Case 12 baseline ($66.4/tCO 2 and $95.9/tCO 2 avoided). While Case 2A and 2B have similar results, Case 2A requires further development. Focus on Case 2B is recommended for this project because its cost performance is closest to the DOE goals, and has it has the best potential to achieve a successful demonstration at the next scale.

Reardon, John↗

DOE OSTI2013

Syngas Conversion to Hydrocarbon Fuels through Mixed Alcohol Intermediates

Synthesis gas (syngas) can be used to synthesize a variety of fuels and chemicals. Domestic transportation and military operational interests have driven continued focus on domestic syngas-based fuels production. Liquid transportation fuels may be made from syngas via four basic processes: 1) higher alcohols, 2) Fischer-Tropsch (FT), 3) methanol-to-gasoline (MTG), and 4) methanol-to-olefins (MTO) and olefins-to-gasoline/distillate (MOGD). Compared to FT and higher alcohols, MTG and MTO-MOGD have received less attention in recent years. Due to the high capital cost of these synthetic fuel plants, the production cost of the finished fuel cannot compete with petroleum-derived fuel. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has recently evaluated one way to potentially reduce capital cost and overall production cost for MTG by combining the methanol and MTG syntheses in a single reactor. The concept consists of mixing the conventional MTG catalyst (i.e. HZSM-5) with an alcohol synthesis catalyst. It was found that a methanol synthesis catalyst, stable at high temperature (i.e. Pd/ZnO/Al2O3) [1], when mixed with ZSM-5, was active for syngas conversion. Relatively high syngas conversion can be achieved as the equilibrium-driven conversion limitations for methanol and dimethyl ether are removed as they are intermediates to the final hydrocarbon product. However, selectivity control was difficult to achieve as formation of undesirable durene and light hydrocarbons was problematic [2]. The objective of the present study was thus to evaluate other potential composite catalyst systems and optimize the reactions conditions for the conversion of syngas to hydrocarbon fuels, through the use of mixed alcohol intermediates. Mixed alcohols are of interest as they have recently been reported to produce higher yields of gasoline compared to methanol [3]. 1. Lebarbier, V.M., Dagle, R.A., Kovarik, L., Lizarazo-Adarme, J.A., King, D.L., Palo, D.R., Catalyst Science & Technology, 2012, 2, 2116-2127. 2. Zhu, Y., Jones, S.B., Biddy, M.J., Dagle, R.A., Palo, D.P., Bioresource Technology, 2012, 117, 341-351. 3. Gujar, A.C., Guda, V.K., Nolan, M., Yan W., Toghiani, H., White, M.G., Applied Catalysis A: General, 2009, 363, 115-121.

syngas, catalysis, mixed alchohols, biomass, fossi↗

DOE OSTI2013

Existing Whole-House Solutions Case Study: 56th and Walnut: A Philly Gut Rehab Development, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Load-bearing brick-masonry multifamily buildings are prevalent in urban areas across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. In most instances, these buildings are uninsulated unless they have been renovated within the past two decades. Affordable housing capital budgets typically limit what can be spent and energy improvements often take a back seat to basic capital improvements such as interior finish upgrades and basic repairs. The Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) is researching cost-effective solution packages for significant energy efficiency and indoor air-quality improvements in these urban buildings.

audit↗

DOE OSTI2015

LCOE Uncertainty Analysis for Hydropower using Monte Carlo Simulations

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is an important metric to evaluate the cost and performance of electricity production generation alternatives, and combined with other measures, can be used to assess the economics of future hydropower development. Multiple assumptions on input parameters are required to calculate the LCOE, which each contain some level of uncertainty, in turn affecting the accuracy of LCOE results. This paper explores these uncertainties, their sources, and ultimately the level of variability they introduce at the screening level of project evaluation for non-powered dams (NPDs) across the U.S.Owing to site-specific differences in site design, the LCOE for hydropower varies significantly from project to project unlike technologies with more standardized configurations such as wind and gas. Therefore, to assess the impact of LCOE input uncertainty on the economics of U.S. hydropower resources, these uncertainties must be modeled across the population of potential opportunities. To demonstrate the impact of uncertainty, resource data from a recent nationwide non-powered dam (NPD) resource assessment (Hadjerioua et al., 2012) and screening-level predictive cost equations (O’Connor et al., 2015) are used to quantify and evaluate uncertainties in project capital and operations & maintenance costs, and generation potential at broad scale. LCOE dependence on financial assumptions is also evaluated on a sensitivity basis to explore ownership/investment implications on project economics for the U.S. hydropower fleet.The results indicate that the LCOE for U.S. NPDs varies substantially. The LCOE estimates for the potential NPD projects of capacity greater than 1 MW range from 40 to 182 $/MWh, with average of 106 $/MWh. 4,000 MW could be developed through projects with individual LCOE values below 100 $/MWh. The results also indicate that typically 90 % of LCOE uncertainty can be attributed to uncertainties in capital costs and energy production; however, for small projects (below 10 MW) O&M uncertainty plays an important role. The potential NPDs have costs with uncertainty bands extending well above 100 $/MWh in some cases. A truly representative evaluation should complement LCOE with an assessment of potential revenues from the provision of ancillary services. Moreover, hydroelectric production is often part of multipurpose water resource projects where other purposes (e.g., irrigation, flood control, navigation, recreation, etc.) also provide value. Neither of these considerations are accounted for LCOE.

Chalise, Dol Raj↗

DOE OSTI2016

PV Project Finance in the United States, 2016

This brief is a compilation of data points and market insights that reflect the state of the project finance market for solar photovoltaic (PV) assets in the United States as of the third quarter of 2016. This information can generally be used as a simplified benchmark of the costs associated with securing financing for solar PV as well as the cost of the financing itself (i.e., the cost of capital). Three sources of capital are considered -- tax equity, sponsor equity, and debt -- across three segments of the PV marketplace.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines: Preprint

The global geothermal electricity market has significantly grown over the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 GWe in 2021 (GEA, 2016). Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. In particular, the turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. This study focuses on analysis of the global supply chain and manufacturing costs for Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turboexpanders and steam turbines used in geothermal power plants. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). MSP is the minimum price that a company must sell its product for in order to pay back the capital and operating expenses during the plant lifetime (CEMAC, 2017). The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 dollar/kW and 30 dollar/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. Sensitivity analysis indicated these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Design of a Commercial Scale Oxy-Coal Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle

This presentation provides an overview of NETL’s analyses of the supercritical CO2 (SCO2) recompression Brayton cycle for application to commercial scale power plants with CO2 capture. This cycle has the potential to achieve over 50% efficiency due to the recuperation of heat from the SCO2 turbine exhaust, while the high SCO2 density may yield reductions in plant footprint and capital cost. Prior work has found that a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) with enhanced combustion air preheating would be a suitable indirect heat source for a SCO2 power cycle. This work investigates several options for efficiently integrating an oxy-fired CFB with an indirect SCO2 cycle, including thermal integration with the air separation unit, and utilization of combustor exhaust heat to thermally balance the low temperature recuperator. The sensitivity of plant performance to various cycle parameters is investigated, and the effect of design choices on the plant’s capital cost is discussed.

Weiland, Nathan↗

DOE OSTI2018

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems Extreme Weather Resilience

We present novel stochastic optimization models to improve power systems resilience to extreme weather events. We consider proactive redispatch, transmission line hardening, and transmission line capacity increases as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather. Our model is based on linearized or "DC" optimal power flow, similar to models in widespread use by independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission operators (RTOs). Our computational experiments indicate that proactive redispatch alone can reduce the expected load shed by as much as 25% relative to standard economic dispatch. This resiliency enhancement strategy requires no capital investments and is implementable by ISOs and RTOs solely through operational adjustments. We additionally demonstrate that transmission line hardening and increases in transmission capacity can, in limited quantities, be effective strategies to further enhance power grid resiliency, although at significant capital investment cost. We perform a cross validation analysis to demonstrate the robustness of proposed recommendations. Our proposed model can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

The International Supply Chain and Manufacturing Costs for Photovoltaic Modules, and Project Economics of Systems Including Storage

This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) to track solar PV manufacturing capacities and trade flows, bottom-up manufacturing costs, and project capital costs including storage. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and the 2019 benchmark input data used to inform NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film module manufacturing cost models. The accounting framework that we follow and that will be reviewed during this talk provides a methodology to prepare cost models in accordance with the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2019 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art polysilicon-to-module manufacturing across the globe. We will also provide an overview of opportunities for solar plus storage and show our 2018 benchmark bottom-up capital cost model results for utility-scale PV systems with battery storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hydrogen's Potential Role in Future Energy Systems

Hydrogen is developing as a key energy interface that can benefit the electricity grid, provide energy storage, and be used in a number of key applications that have limited alternatives to today's fossil-energy sources. In 2015, the global hydrogen market was 60 MMT/yr (8 EJ/yr). The Hydrogen Council estimated that it could grow ten-fold to 600 MMT/yr (80 EJ/yr) if industrial, transportation, buildings, and electrical applications grow [1]. Hydrogen is used extensively in oil refining for hydrocracking and hydrodesulfurization. It is also the key intermediate while producing ammonia which is used primarily as a fertilizer. Additional industrial market opportunities include steel production where hydrogen could replace metallurgical coal as a reductant (for example, in the direct iron reduction process) and as a feedstock with carbon dioxide to produce methanol, Fischer-Tropsch liquids, and other organic chemicals. In transportation, hydrogen can be used in applications powered by fuel cells. Currently, material handling equipment is the primary market; however, heavy- and medium-duty trucks and light duty vehicles are other direct options. In addition, a hydrogen carrier such as ammonia is a key transportation opportunity. Because it is a non-carbon form of energy storage, hydrogen can play a key role in heating buildings, either directly or through combined heat and power generation, and in providing seasonal storage for the electricity grid. Research and development (R&D) that reduce costs will likely be necessary for hydrogen to economically participate in steelmaking and organic chemical markets. Likewise, lower-cost fuel cells will likely be needed for hydrogen to compete in many transportation, heat, and power markets. Hydrogen is primarily produced from natural gas or other organic feedstocks (e.g., oil refinery byproducts) today. R&D that can reduce the capital cost of both low-temperature and high-temperature electrolysis is possible. If the capital costs for low temperature electrolysis can be reduced while keeping its ability to respond to varying power input, it could be a flexible load on the grid. As such, it could utilize power that would otherwise be curtailed and thus increase the market opportunity for variable renewable generation such as wind and photovoltaic solar [2]. Because it is at an elevated temperature, high temperature electrolysis has a higher efficiency. In many sites where both heat and electricity are available (e.g., nuclear power plants) it can be the most cost effective option for producing hydrogen and supporting energy generation facilities that are challenged when competing to produce electricity alone. [1] The Hydrogen Council. Hydrogen Scaling Up. November 2017. [2] Ruth M., Jadun P., Elgowainy A. H2@Scale Analysis. U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2019 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. April 30, 2019.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage Analysis

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic characterization of energy storage and exible low carbon power generation technologies that can shift energy across days, weeks, or months to balance daily, weekly, and seasonal disparities in supply and demand. Energy storage technologies evaluated here include pumped hydropower storage (PHS), adiabatic and diabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES), vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), pumped thermal energy storage (P-TES), and renewably produced hydrogen stored in either geologic formations or underground pipes with re-electrification via combustion turbines in combined cycles, stationary proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, or the novel use of PEM fuel cells designed for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) which are expected to have shorter lives but also lower capital costs. We also evaluate flexible low-carbon power generation systems, including ethanol combustion in gas turbines and natural gas combustion with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). We estimate current costs with literature data, use learning rates to characterize future costs, and develop capacity factors calibrated to an 85% renewables grid to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of each technology. Results illustrate that at the 12-hour storage duration, PHS and CAES have the lowest LCOE with current costs, and VRBs become competitive if future costs are achieved. At the 120-hour storage duration, hydrogen systems with geologic storage and natural gas with CCS achieve the lowest LCOE in both current and future capital cost scenarios. In particular, the new configuration of HDV-PEM fuel cells with hydrogen storage in geologic formations evaluated here could lower the LCOE by 22-27% compared to stationary fuel cell systems typically evaluated and might help enable very high (>80%) renewable energy electric power systems. P-TES and hydrogen stored in underground pipes are the least-cost options at the 120-hour storage duration rating that do not require some form of geologic storage. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo analysis illustrate that the general trends seen in this study are valid for a wide range of capacity factors and future cost scenarios. The study also illustrates that coproducing and selling hydrogen to other markets could reduce the LCOE of hydrogen systems by up to 39%.

carbon capture and sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Cost-Optimal Battery Energy and Solar-Plus-Storage Systems for Federal Customers: A Nationwide Assessment: Preprint

Prior research has identified that the financial viability of behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems is heavily dependent on technology cost, utility rate structure, energy consumption patterns, and co-deployment with synergistic technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), among other factors. This study builds on existing research by comprehensively evaluating the economics of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and solar-plus-storage systems for a reference office building at 755 reference sites under 834 utility rates, and four storage capital cost scenarios. Results indicate that even with dramatic cost reductions, BESS is likely to be cost-effective only under utility rates that include demand charges, and possibly include time-of-use (TOU) pricing as well. Even under these utility rates, BESS systems provide marginal savings, and office building operators are unlikely to deploy the technology for cost savings alone. Solar-plus-storage systems provide more savings than BESS and allow for larger economic storage capacities. Solar-plus-storage provides compelling savings opportunities at baseline prices, and even at capital costs 25% higher than baseline. Solar-plus-storage is most effective where there are demand charges and energy pricing schemes include TOU pricing, or where electricity is expensive (at least $0.30/kWh). Our case studies illustrate that the presence of demand charges, even at similar energy costs, can be the deciding factor in BESS and solar-plus-storage viability. The findings and maps from this assessment may be of use to planners, building owners, and developers looking for potentially economic storage opportunities.

battery energy storage systems↗