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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid-Interactive Multi-Zone Building Control Using Reinforcement Learning with Global-Local Policy Search: Preprint

In this paper, we develop a grid-interactive multi-zone building controller based on a deep reinforcement learning (RL) approach. The controller is designed to facilitate building operation during normal conditions and demand response events, while ensuring occupants comfort and energy efficiency. We leverage a continuous action space RL formulation, and devise a two-stage global-local RL training framework. In the first stage, a global fast policy search is performed using a gradient-free RL algorithm. In the second stage, a local fine-tuning is conducted using a policy gradient method. In contrast to the state-of-the-art model predictive control (MPC) approach, the proposed RL controller does not require complex computation during real-time operation and can adapt to non-linear building models. We illustrate the controller performance numerically using a five-zone commercial building.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unsupervised domain adaptation for radioisotope identification in gamma spectroscopy

Training machine learning models for radioisotope identification using gamma spectroscopy remains an elusive challenge for many practical applications, largely stemming from the difficulty of acquiring and labeling large, diverse experimental datasets. Simulations can mitigate this challenge, but the accuracy of models trained on simulated data can deteriorate substantially when deployed to an out-of-distribution operational environment. In this study, we demonstrate that unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) can improve the ability of a model trained on synthetic data to generalize to a new testing domain, provided unlabeled data from the target domain are available. Conventional supervised techniques are unable to utilize this data because the absence of isotope labels precludes defining a supervised classification loss. Instead, we first pretrain a spectral classifier using labeled synthetic data and subsequently leverage unlabeled target data to align the learned feature representations between the source and target domains. We compare a range of different UDA techniques, finding that minimizing the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between source and target feature vectors yields the most consistent improvement to testing scores. For instance, using a custom transformer-based neural network, we achieved a testing accuracy of $0.904 \pm 0.022$ on an experimental LaBr test set after performing unsupervised feature alignment via MMD minimization, compared to $0.754 \pm 0.014$ before alignment. Overall, our results highlight the potential of using UDA to adapt a radioisotope classifier trained on synthetic data for real-world deployment.

Lalor, Peter W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Off-policy deep reinforcement learning with automatic entropy adjustment for adaptive online grid emergency control

Electric overloading conditions and contingencies put modern power systems at risk of voltage collapse and blackouts. Load shedding is crucial to maintain voltage stability for grid emergency control. However, the rule- or model-based schemes rely on accurate dynamic system models and face considerable challenges in adapting to various operating conditions and uncertain event occurrences. Here, to address these issues, this paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based voltage stability control algorithm with automatic entropy adjustment (AEA) for grid emergency control. Various dynamic network components for complex system operations are modeled to construct the DRL environment. An off-policy soft actor-critic architecture is developed to maximize the expected reward and policy entropy simultaneously. The AEA mechanism is proposed to facilitate the policy maximum entropy procedure, and the proposed method can automatically provide effective discrete and continuous actions against various fault scenarios. Our approach accomplishes high sampling efficiency, scalability, and auto-adaptivity of the control policies under high uncertainties. Comparative studies with the existing DRL-based control methods in IEEE benchmarks indicate salient performance improvement of the proposed method for dynamic system emergency control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Skill of Deep Learning Models Trained on Limited Sequence Data

In this report we investigate the utility of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) models in epidemiological forecasting. Deep learning models, especially variants of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been studied for influenza forecasting, and have achieved higher forecasting skill compared to conventional models such as ARIMA models. In this study, we adapt two neural networks that employ one-dimensional temporal convolutional layers as a primary building block temporal convolutional networks and simple neural attentive meta-learner for epidemiological forecasting and test them with influenza data from the US collected over 2010-2019. We find that epidemiological forecasting with CNNs is feasible, and their forecasting skill is comparable to, and at times, superior to, RNNs. Thus CNNs and RNNs bring the power of nonlinear transformations to purely data-driven epidemiological models, a capability that heretofore has been limited to more elaborate mechanistic/compartmental disease models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching for fat tails in CRISPR-Cas systems: Data analysis and mathematical modeling

Understanding CRISPR-Cas systems—the adaptive defence mechanism that about half of bacterial species and most of archaea use to neutralise viral attacks—is important for explaining the biodiversity observed in the microbial world as well as for editing animal and plant genomes effectively. The CRISPR-Cas system learns from previous viral infections and integrates small pieces from phage genomes called spacers into the microbial genome. The resulting library of spacers collected in CRISPR arrays is then compared with the DNA of potential invaders. One of the most intriguing and least well understood questions about CRISPR-Cas systems is the distribution of spacers across the microbial population. Here, using empirical data, we show that the global distribution of spacer numbers in CRISPR arrays across multiple biomes worldwide typically exhibits scale-invariant power law behaviour, and the standard deviation is greater than the sample mean. We develop a mathematical model of spacer loss and acquisition dynamics which fits observed data from almost four thousand metagenomes well. In analogy to the classical ‘rich-get-richer’ mechanism of power law emergence, the rate of spacer acquisition is proportional to the CRISPR array size, which allows a small proportion of CRISPRs within the population to possess a significant number of spacers. Our study provides an alternative explanation for the rarity of all-resistant super microbes in nature and why proliferation of phages can be highly successful despite the effectiveness of CRISPR-Cas systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal adaptation of soil microbial growth traits in response to chronic warming

ABSTRACT Adaptation of soil microbes due to warming from climate change has been observed, but it remains unknown what microbial growth traits are adaptive to warming. We studied bacterial isolates from the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site, where field soils have been experimentally heated to 5°C above ambient temperature with unheated controls for 30 years. We hypothesized that Alphaproteobacteria from warmed plots have (i) less temperature-sensitive growth rates; (ii) higher optimum growth temperatures; and (iii) higher maximum growth temperatures compared to isolates from control plots. We made high-throughput measurements of bacterial growth in liquid cultures over time and across temperatures from 22°C to 37°C in 2–3°C increments. We estimated growth rates by fitting Gompertz models to the growth data. Temperature sensitivity of growth rate, optimum growth temperature, and maximum growth temperature were estimated by the Ratkowsky 1983 model and a modified Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) model. To determine evidence of adaptation, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares tests on isolates from warmed and control soils. Our results showed evidence of adaptation of higher optimum growth temperature of bacterial isolates from heated soils. However, we observed no evidence of adaptation of temperature sensitivity of growth and maximum growth temperature. Our project begins to capture the shape of the temperature response curves, but illustrates that the relationship between growth and temperature is complex and cannot be limited to a single point in the biokinetic range. IMPORTANCE Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon sink and the foundation of our food, fiber, and fuel systems. Healthy soils are carbon sinks, storing more carbon than they release. This reduces the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and buffers against climate change. Soil microbes drive biogeochemical cycling and contribute to soil health through organic matter breakdown, plant growth promotion, and nutrient distribution. In this study, we determined how soil microbial growth traits respond to long-term soil warming. We found that bacterial isolates from warmed plots showed evidence of adaptation of optimum growth temperature. This suggests that increased microbial biomass and growth in a warming world could result in greater carbon storage. As temperatures increase, greater microbial activity may help reduce the soil carbon feedback loop. Our results provide insight on how atmospheric carbon cycling and soil health may respond in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solving Seismic Wave Equations on Variable Velocity Models With Fourier Neural Operator

Here, in the study of subsurface seismic imaging, solving the acoustic wave equation is a pivotal component in existing models. The advancement of deep learning (DL) enables solving partial differential equations (PDEs), including wave equations, by applying neural networks to identify the mapping between the inputs and the solution. This approach can be faster than traditional numerical methods when numerous instances are to be solved. Previous works that concentrate on solving the wave equation by neural networks consider either a single velocity model or multiple simple velocity models, which is restricted in practice. Instead, inspired by the idea of operator learning, this work leverages the Fourier neural operator (FNO) to effectively learn the frequency domain seismic wavefields under the context of variable velocity models. We also propose a new framework paralleled FNO (PFNO) for efficiently training the FNO-based solver given multiple source locations and frequencies. Numerical experiments demonstrate the high accuracy of both FNO and PFNO with complicated velocity models in the OpenFWI datasets. Furthermore, the cross-dataset generalization test verifies that PFNO adapts to out-of-distribution velocity models. Finally, PFNO admits higher computational efficiency on large-scale testing datasets than the traditional finite-difference method. The aforementioned advantages endow the FNO-based solver with the potential to build powerful models for research on seismic waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

FLOP for FLAG Output Plotting

The Los Alamos hydrodynamics code, FLAG, is capable of dumping many types of output for many different variables in an array of formats. While some outputs are best viewed in a multidimensional engineering analysis visualization software, others are best viewed as 1-D “this versus that” curves. During development of a FLAG model, it is frequently required to quickly assess a model’s performance by reviewing such curves, and doing so may involve writing scripts repeatedly, adapting them each time to a specific model’s parameters. This report describes an application developed specifically to improve user efficiency in reviewing 1-D curve dumps from FLAG.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Target space entanglement in Matrix Models

We study target space entanglement in gauged multi-matrix models as models of entanglement between groups of D-branes separated by a planar entangling surface, paying close attention to the implementation of gauge invariance. We open with a review of target space entanglement between identical particles, which shares some important features (specifically a gauged permutation symmetry) with our main problem. For our matrix models, we implement a gauge fixing well-adapted to the entangling surface. In this gauge, we map the matrix model problem to that of entanglement of a U(1) gauge theory on a complete or all-to-all lattice. Matrix elements corresponding to open strings stretching across the entangling surface in the target space lead to interesting contributions to the entanglement entropy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Catch bond kinetics are instrumental to cohesion of fire ant rafts under load

Dynamic networks composed of constituents that break and reform bonds reversibly are ubiquitous in nature owing to their modular architectures that enable functions like energy dissipation, self-healing, and even activity. While bond breaking depends only on the current configuration of attachment in these networks, reattachment depends also on the proximity of constituents. Therefore, dynamic networks composed of macroscale constituents (not benefited by the secondary interactions cohering analogous networks composed of molecular-scale constituents) must rely on primary bonds for cohesion and self-repair. Toward understanding how such macroscale networks might adaptively achieve this, we explore the uniaxial tensile response of 2D rafts composed of interlinked fire ants ( S. invicta ). Through experiments and discrete numerical modeling, we find that ant rafts adaptively stabilize their bonded ant-to-ant interactions in response to tensile strains, indicating catch bond dynamics. Consequently, low-strain rates that should theoretically induce creep mechanics of these rafts instead induce elastic-like response. Our results suggest that this force-stabilization delays dissolution of the rafts and improves toughness. Nevertheless, above 35 % strain low cohesion and stress localization cause nucleation and growth of voids whose coalescence patterns result from force-stabilization. These voids mitigate structural repair until initial raft densities are restored and ants can reconnect across defects. However mechanical recovery of ant rafts during cyclic loading suggests that—even upon reinstatement of initial densities—ants exhibit slower repair kinetics if they were recently loaded at faster strain rates. These results exemplify fire ants’ status as active agents capable of memory-driven, stimuli-response for potential inspiration of adaptive structural materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Reinforcement Learning From Demonstrations to Assist Service Restoration in Islanded Microgrids

Microgrids can be operated in island mode during utility grid outages to support service restoration and improve system resilience. To schedule and dispatch distributed energy resources (DERs) in an islanded microgrid, conventional model-based methods rely on accurate distribution network models and lack generalization and adaptability. Data-driven methods are promising for DER coordination but face practical challenges such as potential hazards to microgrids during online training and insufficient online training opportunities due to low outage rates. This paper presents a novel two-stage learning framework that builds on the deep deterministic policy gradient from demonstrations to identify an optimal restoration strategy. At the pre-training stage, imitation learning is applied to equip the control agent with expert experiences to guarantee acceptable initial performance. At the online training stage, action clipping, reward shaping, and expert demonstrations are leveraged to ensure safe exploration while accelerating the training process. In conclusion, the proposed method is illustrated using the IEEE 123-node system and compared with a representative model-based method and the standard deep deterministic policy gradient method to prove solution accuracy and demonstrate increased computational efficiency.

Du, Yan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology, i.e., seasonal biological events such as leaf-out and leaf-fall, regulates local climate through biophysical processes like evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo. However, the net surface temperature impact of these processes—whether ET cooling or albedo-induced warming predominates—and how the dominance changes across phenological transitions and regions remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of vegetation foliage on daytime land surface temperature (LST) following six phenological transitions, spanning from the start of season to end of season, in deciduous and mixed forests across the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere during 2013–2021 using multiple satellite products and ground observations. We quantified vegetation effect as the difference between observed LST and LST estimates from the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model, representing a no-foliage scenario. We found that vegetation-induced cooling consistently outweighs warming following all phenological transitions except for the end of the season. Cooling intensity increased with vegetation greenness, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 0.15 SD) in 59% of forests after the start of the season (SOS) to 6.1 ± 0.8 °C in 89% of forests following the onset of maturity, before declining toward the end of the season. Over half of the regions experiencing cooling showed intensification of surface cooling with climate warming, suggesting an amplified vegetation-mediated cooling under future climate change. The findings provide a more precise understanding of the role of vegetation in modulating climate at the intraseasonal scale, highlighting the importance of integrating phenological impacts into climate adaptation strategies and Earth system modeling.

albedo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part II: Impact of Technoeconomic Constraints on Optimal Design

There is a current drive toward optimizing reactors, particularly small/micro reactors to minimize cost and maximize performance. Previous work has investigated the development of technoeconomic workflows for the design optimization of pool-type fast reactors that aim to deploy into district energy grids. Initial scoping studies verified that the workflow was capable of capturing design trends throughout a variety of design configurations and problem formulations while remaining sufficiently flexible. In this paper, this methodology is applied to understand how cost functions and technoeconomic constraints can drive optimal reactor design. Specifically, the UPu10Zr-fueled fast reactor model from Part I is adapted to include changes in the fissile content limits, control rod worth limits, control rod drive cost, and assumed fuel form. In the case of constraint relaxation at fixed power (fissile content and control rod worth limits), cost sensitivities of 5% to 10% were uncovered. Multi-objective optimization at varying reactor power levels with individualized control rod drives for each assembly (as opposed to one operational and one safety drive) increased cost by $\$10$ to $\$25$ million and substantially altered the optimal core geometry, favoring geometries with substantially fewer control rod placements relative to baseline optimization. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed at varying power levels with the fuel form overhauled to metallic, high-assay low-enriched uranium–based U10Zr with more refined fuel cost models. In the case of uranium fueling, the costs increased by at least $50 million relative to the baseline case. Furthermore, economic fuel zoning and lower reactivity swing cores were recovered. Each case serves to demonstrate the value of applying technoeconomic workflows to initial reactor design scoping studies to better understand the trade-off for a proposed concept between different design options.

Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) codes↗